A new video on YouTube channel of the analytical center “Club of Experts” examined the options for the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey. Ukrainian experts expressed their opinions and gave forecasts regarding the political situation in this country.
Mohammad Farajallah, editor-in-chief of the Internet publication “Ukraine in Arabic,” stressed that the upcoming elections in Turkey are of great importance for the region and arouse the interest of the international community.
“Turkey is an important player on the world stage, and its domestic policy directly affects the situation in the region and beyond. Therefore, the results of the elections will be monitored with great attention,” he noted.
In turn, the founder of the Club of Experts, Maksim Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics, shared his vision of possible scenarios after the elections. He stressed that there are two main political forces fighting for leadership in Turkey: the Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Kemal Kılıcdaroğlu, allied with five other opposition political forces.
“Two scenarios are possible. If the AKP wins, we can expect a continuation of the policies Erdoğan has pursued in recent years, with a focus on enhancing domestic stability and strengthening Turkey’s position in the international arena. On the other hand, if the CHP wins, we may see a more pro-Western orientation and increased cooperation with the European Union and the United States,” the expert said.
According to Urakin, a win for either candidate in the first round is unlikely, and the winner of the presidential race will most likely be determined by a second ballot.
Both experts also noted the significance for Ukraine of the election results in Turkey.
“Ukraine has close economic and political ties with Turkey, so the election results will have a direct impact on our relations and cooperation. Over the last year, as a result of the war, trade turnover between our countries has decreased, but I believe that if the current political course is maintained, we can expect further development of trade and economic relations between Ukraine and Turkey,” said Maxim Urakin.
In addition, the expert cited statistics on exports from Ukraine to Turkey in 2022, according to which it has decreased significantly.
“Last year, the volume of Ukrainian exports to Turkey was about 3 billion dollars as opposed to more than 4 billion in 2021, that is, we see a drop of 29%,” Urakin said.
According to Mohammad Farajallah, in the current geopolitical situation Turkey is an important partner of Ukraine in various spheres, which include both military support (UAV Bayraktar, light armored vehicles) and cooperation in economy, energy and other spheres.
The expert also suggested that if the opposition wins, Turkey is more likely to join sanctions against Russia.
“Naturally, the new government will be as close to the West as possible and can be included in a common unified Western policy against Russia. This, of course, will be to our advantage. But these are just preliminary words for now, perhaps they (the opposition – ed.) will come, look at the numbers and continue Erdogan’s current policy,” said Farajallah.
It should be noted that on the eve of the voting, Erdoğan lags behind his main rival Kılıçdaroğlu by more than 5%, according to a poll published by the Turkish sociological center KONDA on May 11.
Thus, Erdoğan gets the support of 43.7 percent of respondents, while Kılıçdaroğlu gets 49.3 percent.
The poll also reveals that neither candidate gets more than 50% of the votes, which means that if these data are confirmed in the elections, the winner will be chosen in the second round, which is scheduled for May 28.
The KONDA polling service conducted personal interviews with 3,480 people in 35 provincial centers.
At the same time, according to other surveys, in particular the Istanbul-based Center for Operational Social Research (Yöneylem), Erdoğan’s party was supported by 35.2% of voters in the parliamentary elections and Kılıcdaroğlu’s CHP by 30.7%.
For more on Turkey’s elections, see the video:
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Turkish Health Minister Fahrettin Kocia said Thursday that President Recep Erdogan’s health is fine, Turkish media reported.
“I was with him this morning. He is fine. The effects of the infection he contracted have diminished,” the minister wrote on social media.
For his part, Fahrettin Altun, head of the Turkish presidential administration’s communications department, denied reports about Erdogan’s serious condition that appeared earlier in the media, and said that the Turkish leader continues to work.
“The opposition is trying to gain political advantage by spreading unfoundedly distorted information even about our president’s health condition. Our president continues to serve with great strength, health and energy,” Anadolu quoted Altun as saying.
The agency recalls that the day before the Center to Combat Disinformation of the Communications Department denied reports in some social media accounts that Erdogan “had a heart attack and was hospitalized. According to the center’s statement, they do not reflect the truth.
Turkish and foreign media reported that Erdoğan felt unwell during an interview on Tuesday night, for which he had to interrupt his live broadcast. Allegedly, it was an acute digestive disorder.
“There was quite intense campaign work yesterday and today, and because of this work, my stomach got sick,” Erdoğan explained on Tuesday.
Because of his health problems, Erdogan cancelled campaign events that were scheduled for Thursday. At the same time, Anadolu writes that the president cancelled plans to rest after a number of his campaign events.
The number of victims of earthquakes that occurred in early February in the southeast of Turkey, exceeded the mark of 46 thousand people in this country, said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“The number of victims of earthquakes in southeastern Turkey has reached 46,104,” he was quoted as saying by Anadolu Agency. Last week Ankara reported about 46 thousand dead, but at that time the issue was about data from two countries: Turkey and Syria.
According to Erdogan, the construction of 488 thousand new houses in the areas affected by earthquakes is planned.
The earthquake of magnitude 7.7 occurred in Turkey on the night of February 6, followed by a series of aftershocks, one of which had a magnitude of 7.6. These tremors caused serious damage and casualties in neighboring Syria as well.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to hold telephone conversations with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, January 4.
Turkey’s Anadolu news agency quoted Erdogan’s spokesman, Ibrahim Kalın, as saying, “Turkish President Erdoğan will hold a telephone conversation with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts on Wednesday.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the next few days.
The Turkish President said this while speaking to the participants of TRT World Forum in Istanbul, Anadolu Agency reported.
According to Erdogan, talks with Putin are scheduled for Sunday, December 11. The main topic will be the operation of the grain corridor. A conversation with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski is also scheduled, Erdoğan said.
He also stressed that Ankara’s diplomatic efforts are aimed at achieving peace in the Black Sea region.
“Despite the fact that the Istanbul dialogue process between Russia and Ukraine, has been interrupted, this platform is still the most ideal for long-term peace,” Erdogan is confident.
During his first visit to Ukraine since the start of Russian aggression, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan plans to discuss possible steps to end the war through diplomacy with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UN Secretary General António Guterres, CNN Turk reports, citing a statement from the Communications Department. president.
“(…) The meeting will discuss steps that can be taken to end the Ukrainian-Russian war through diplomacy, by activating the mechanism created to export Ukrainian grain to world markets,” the message posted on the website on Tuesday evening reads.
The Milliyet edition notes that Erdogan will visit Ukraine for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation. During the visit, aspects of Turkish-Ukrainian relations at the level of strategic partnership will be assessed.
As reported, UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Lviv on Thursday, August 18, to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. Earlier, the “Club of Experts” released an analysis of the main events that should take place on August 15-21 in Ukraine and the world. For more video analysis, see the link
