The YouTube channel of the Kiev analytical center “Club of Experts” has released a new video in which the founder of the project, PhD in Economics Maksim Urakin and the editor-in-chief of the “Ukraine in Arabic” portal Mohammad Farajallah forecast the results of the upcoming second round of presidential elections in Turkey and also analyzed possible developments after the end of the vote.
According to the experts, the incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has much more chances to win than his rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the united opposition. This prediction is due both to the behavior of the top politicians themselves before and after the first round of elections, as well as the position of third-place winner Sinan Ogan, who has already expressed his support for Erdoğan with 5 percent of the vote.
“Erdoğan conducted his election campaign well by not engaging in open polemics with the opposition on earthquake relief, democracy development and the economic situation. Instead, he focused voters’ attention on the themes of security and the “dignity of the nation” as well as Islamic identity. In addition, the increase in wages and the cancellation of utility bills on the eve of the election also played a role “- says Mohammad Farajallah.
According to the expert, these actions also helped Erdoğan win over nationalist forces, whose single candidate, Sinan Oğan, openly supported the incumbent president on the eve of the second round.
“The opposition, on the contrary, started to behave rather nervously after the first round, which was mainly reflected in Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s aggressive rhetoric with regard to the Syrian refugees who received Turkish passports under the social programs initiated by Erdogan,” he stressed.
In his turn, Maksim Urakin noted that Turkish voters were generally disappointed by Kylicdaroglu’s rhetoric as they expected concrete programs of economic and political actions from the opposition alliance after the elections.
“No specifics were heard from the opposition regarding social support for youth, the older generation, support for entrepreneurs and normalization of the situation in the economy,” says Maxim Urakin.
In his opinion, expectations of Kılıçdaroğlu’s victory already in the first round were somewhat “overheated” by a number of opinion polls, which predicted this candidate a serious advantage over Erdoğan (up to 5-7%), but were subsequently not confirmed at the elections themselves.
At the same time, according to experts, there is still a serious split among Turks with regard to the policy of the current president, and Erdoğan, if he wins the elections, will have to work hard to consolidate society within a single national consensus.
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ELECTIONS, ERDOĞAN, EXPERTS_CLUB, MOHAMMAD_FORPJALLAH, TURKEY
A new video on YouTube channel of the analytical center “Club of Experts” examined the options for the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey. Ukrainian experts expressed their opinions and gave forecasts regarding the political situation in this country.
Mohammad Farajallah, editor-in-chief of the Internet publication “Ukraine in Arabic,” stressed that the upcoming elections in Turkey are of great importance for the region and arouse the interest of the international community.
“Turkey is an important player on the world stage, and its domestic policy directly affects the situation in the region and beyond. Therefore, the results of the elections will be monitored with great attention,” he noted.
In turn, the founder of the Club of Experts, Maksim Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics, shared his vision of possible scenarios after the elections. He stressed that there are two main political forces fighting for leadership in Turkey: the Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Kemal Kılıcdaroğlu, allied with five other opposition political forces.
“Two scenarios are possible. If the AKP wins, we can expect a continuation of the policies Erdoğan has pursued in recent years, with a focus on enhancing domestic stability and strengthening Turkey’s position in the international arena. On the other hand, if the CHP wins, we may see a more pro-Western orientation and increased cooperation with the European Union and the United States,” the expert said.
According to Urakin, a win for either candidate in the first round is unlikely, and the winner of the presidential race will most likely be determined by a second ballot.
Both experts also noted the significance for Ukraine of the election results in Turkey.
“Ukraine has close economic and political ties with Turkey, so the election results will have a direct impact on our relations and cooperation. Over the last year, as a result of the war, trade turnover between our countries has decreased, but I believe that if the current political course is maintained, we can expect further development of trade and economic relations between Ukraine and Turkey,” said Maxim Urakin.
In addition, the expert cited statistics on exports from Ukraine to Turkey in 2022, according to which it has decreased significantly.
“Last year, the volume of Ukrainian exports to Turkey was about 3 billion dollars as opposed to more than 4 billion in 2021, that is, we see a drop of 29%,” Urakin said.
According to Mohammad Farajallah, in the current geopolitical situation Turkey is an important partner of Ukraine in various spheres, which include both military support (UAV Bayraktar, light armored vehicles) and cooperation in economy, energy and other spheres.
The expert also suggested that if the opposition wins, Turkey is more likely to join sanctions against Russia.
“Naturally, the new government will be as close to the West as possible and can be included in a common unified Western policy against Russia. This, of course, will be to our advantage. But these are just preliminary words for now, perhaps they (the opposition – ed.) will come, look at the numbers and continue Erdogan’s current policy,” said Farajallah.
It should be noted that on the eve of the voting, Erdoğan lags behind his main rival Kılıçdaroğlu by more than 5%, according to a poll published by the Turkish sociological center KONDA on May 11.
Thus, Erdoğan gets the support of 43.7 percent of respondents, while Kılıçdaroğlu gets 49.3 percent.
The poll also reveals that neither candidate gets more than 50% of the votes, which means that if these data are confirmed in the elections, the winner will be chosen in the second round, which is scheduled for May 28.
The KONDA polling service conducted personal interviews with 3,480 people in 35 provincial centers.
At the same time, according to other surveys, in particular the Istanbul-based Center for Operational Social Research (Yöneylem), Erdoğan’s party was supported by 35.2% of voters in the parliamentary elections and Kılıcdaroğlu’s CHP by 30.7%.
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CLUB_EXPERTS, ELECTIONS, ERDOĞAN, MOHAMMAD FARAJALLAH, TURKEY, UKRAINE, URAKIN
Turkish Health Minister Fahrettin Kocia said Thursday that President Recep Erdogan’s health is fine, Turkish media reported.
“I was with him this morning. He is fine. The effects of the infection he contracted have diminished,” the minister wrote on social media.
For his part, Fahrettin Altun, head of the Turkish presidential administration’s communications department, denied reports about Erdogan’s serious condition that appeared earlier in the media, and said that the Turkish leader continues to work.
“The opposition is trying to gain political advantage by spreading unfoundedly distorted information even about our president’s health condition. Our president continues to serve with great strength, health and energy,” Anadolu quoted Altun as saying.
The agency recalls that the day before the Center to Combat Disinformation of the Communications Department denied reports in some social media accounts that Erdogan “had a heart attack and was hospitalized. According to the center’s statement, they do not reflect the truth.
Turkish and foreign media reported that Erdoğan felt unwell during an interview on Tuesday night, for which he had to interrupt his live broadcast. Allegedly, it was an acute digestive disorder.
“There was quite intense campaign work yesterday and today, and because of this work, my stomach got sick,” Erdoğan explained on Tuesday.
Because of his health problems, Erdogan cancelled campaign events that were scheduled for Thursday. At the same time, Anadolu writes that the president cancelled plans to rest after a number of his campaign events.
The number of victims of earthquakes that occurred in early February in the southeast of Turkey, exceeded the mark of 46 thousand people in this country, said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“The number of victims of earthquakes in southeastern Turkey has reached 46,104,” he was quoted as saying by Anadolu Agency. Last week Ankara reported about 46 thousand dead, but at that time the issue was about data from two countries: Turkey and Syria.
According to Erdogan, the construction of 488 thousand new houses in the areas affected by earthquakes is planned.
The earthquake of magnitude 7.7 occurred in Turkey on the night of February 6, followed by a series of aftershocks, one of which had a magnitude of 7.6. These tremors caused serious damage and casualties in neighboring Syria as well.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to hold telephone conversations with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, January 4.
Turkey’s Anadolu news agency quoted Erdogan’s spokesman, Ibrahim Kalın, as saying, “Turkish President Erdoğan will hold a telephone conversation with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts on Wednesday.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the next few days.
The Turkish President said this while speaking to the participants of TRT World Forum in Istanbul, Anadolu Agency reported.
According to Erdogan, talks with Putin are scheduled for Sunday, December 11. The main topic will be the operation of the grain corridor. A conversation with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski is also scheduled, Erdoğan said.
He also stressed that Ankara’s diplomatic efforts are aimed at achieving peace in the Black Sea region.
“Despite the fact that the Istanbul dialogue process between Russia and Ukraine, has been interrupted, this platform is still the most ideal for long-term peace,” Erdogan is confident.
