Today, Donald Trump will officially begin his term as the 47th President of the United States of America. His possible actions and strategies in the international arena were the main topic of discussion at a meeting of experts organized by the Atlantic Council and Experts Club. Brian Mefford, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, and Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club, discussed key issues that will affect the geopolitical situation in the world, including Ukraine.
Brian Mefford noted that Trump’s first months in office will be focused on resolving domestic issues, such as the confirmation of his cabinet members in the Senate. However, the expert emphasized that Ukraine will remain an important issue in US foreign policy.
“Ukraine already has a special envoy, General Kellogg. Although his visit to Kyiv was postponed, it shows that Ukraine remains a priority. Its security is crucial for stability in the region,” Mr. Mefford said.
One of the key topics of discussion was Ukraine’s membership in NATO, which was first promised at the Bucharest Summit in 2008. According to Brian Mefford, this decision could have prevented many of the current problems.
“It was a serious mistake at the time. Russia used this uncertainty: first in Georgia and then in Ukraine. Now, because of the war on its own territory, the NATO issue for Ukraine is being postponed indefinitely. At the same time, there is a need for long-term security guarantees. Ukraine needs modern weapons, so the United States and European partners must remain reliable allies of Ukraine,” he explained.
At the same time, according to the expert, the issue of NATO funding became one of the most discussed during Trump’s first presidency, when he called on European countries to increase their defense spending.
“The United States spends more on defense than the next nine countries combined. Trump was right to insist that European countries spend at least 2% of GDP on defense. And now these requirements are being met. Increasing defense spending in Europe is in everyone’s interest. The alliance remains a powerful tool for ensuring stability,” Mr. Mefford emphasized.
According to him, the US withdrawal from NATO is currently an unlikely scenario.
Mefford suggested that the Trump administration will continue its tough economic policy towards China, including trade wars.
“China does not follow fair rules in international trade. Support for Taiwan will remain unchanged, as the United States has strategic interests in the region. Although China often demonstrates strength, its economy is on the verge of recession and its military power is exaggerated,” he explained.
The expert also touched upon the issue of sanctions against Russia, which remain an effective tool of international pressure.
“Trump imposed more sanctions against Russia during his previous term than Obama did. Their mitigation is possible only if the war ends. This is a long-term mechanism that cannot be ignored,” emphasized Mefford.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank, in turn, emphasized the importance of Donald Trump’s election for Ukraine and the world and reminded of other important elections for Ukraine and the region in 2025:
“For Ukraine, partnership with the United States is crucial. However, we need to be prepared for different scenarios and strengthen our economic resilience and diversify our foreign policy, given the very important elections this year in Germany, Poland, Romania, Moldova, and Canada. The world is becoming very dynamic in the future,” said Maxim Urakin.
The experts’ analysis showed that Trump’s policy toward Ukraine will be shaped by both internal and external factors. At the same time, Ukraine’s role in global security will only grow, and international support will remain critical for security on the European continent.
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Atlantic Council, EXPERTS CLUB, NATO, SECURITY, TRUMP, UKRAINE, URAKIN, USA, Меффорд
At the end of 2024, the Serbian labor market showed stability with a gradual increase in employment. The unemployment rate decreased to 9.2%, down from 10.1% in 2023. Economic recovery from the pandemic and the inflow of investments in key sectors are contributing to job creation, but the country still faces a shortage of skilled labor.
The key characteristics of the labor market in Serbia are:
1) The employed population is about 2.9 million.
2) The main employment sectors are:
3)Average salary level:
4) The most demanded professions are:
IT specialists;
Engineers;
Medical personnel;
Workers in the construction and agricultural sectors.
The role of migrants in the Serbian labor market
Migrants play an important role in the Serbian economy, especially in sectors where there is a labor shortage. In 2024, the number of registered foreign workers exceeded 120,000, including citizens of Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Russia and China.
Main migrant groups and their roles:
Regularities:
Challenges of the labor market with regard to migration
Experts predict that Serbia will maintain a high share of migrant workers in the labor market, especially in construction, agriculture, and IT. Key factors:
Serbia’s labor market in 2024 is developing against the backdrop of an influx of foreign workers, including a significant share of Ukrainians. This allows the country to address the problem of staff shortages in key sectors. However, Serbia’s further growth will require not only attracting migrants, but also improving working conditions and incentivizing local workers.
The ruling coalition in Romania has decided on the date of the new presidential elections, which will be held in Romania on May 4 and May 18, Reuters reports, citing sources in the Liberal Party of Romania.
According to the coalition parties, they have agreed to support a single presidential candidate to prevent the far-right from winning, and today their candidate is Crin Antonescu, the former leader of the Liberals, but experts suggest that another candidate from the ruling coalition may be nominated.
According to Politico, despite the cancellation of the results of the previous elections, pro-Russian candidate Kelin Georgescu remains popular in Romania, as evidenced by a poll conducted by Digi 24 at the request of Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, who also plans to run for president of Romania as an independent candidate in the re-election. The poll showed that at least 40 percent of Romanians plan to vote for Dănăsca, Dan told Digi24, without specifying how many people were interviewed.
On Wednesday, Elena Lascone, the leader of the liberal progressive party “Union for the Salvation of Romania”, which came in second in the previous elections with 19.18% of the vote, promised to run again.
As reported, in December 2024, the Romanian Supreme Court overturned the results of the first round of the November 24 presidential election due to allegations of foreign interference after the victory of pro-Russian candidate Kelin Georgescu.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video about the most important elections in the world, the video is available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=zWf7UqPASklCy5nr
The analysis of key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for January-September 2024 is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In January-September 2024, Ukraine’s economy showed a slight growth. According to the Ministry of Economy, real GDP growth in July was 2.7% in annualized terms, which is better than June’s 1.1%, but worse than May’s 3.7%. In the third quarter of 2024, growth may exceed the previously forecasted 3.1%.
“The Ukrainian economy continues to move forward despite the difficult challenges caused by the war and external economic factors. Our key task remains to maintain stable growth and attract investment in strategic sectors of the economy,” – said Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
However, rising inflation remains a challenge for the economy. In September, annual inflation reached 8.6%, accelerating from 7.5% in August. Consumer prices increased by 1.5% month-on-month, after 0.6% in August and zero in July. The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its inflation forecast for 2024, increasing it from 8.5% to 9.7%.
“Inflation remains one of the key challenges. High price growth rates significantly reduce the purchasing power of the population, which creates additional risks for the economy,” Urakin emphasized.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods increased by 5.9% over the first nine months of the year and reached $20.382 billion, indicating high imports and insufficient export growth.
“The increase in the negative trade balance signals the need to revise export support strategies. Only by developing the competitiveness of national production can we achieve balanced economic growth,” Urakin said.
Ukraine’s state budget revenues in September dropped to UAH 122.9 billion after a sharp increase in August to UAH 387.4 billion, driven by grants from the US and EU. This underscores the importance of external assistance to support the budget in times of war.
Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 8.1% in September, reaching $38.9 billion. The main reason for this was a decline in international revenues amid debt repayments.
Global economic situation
The International Monetary Fund maintained its forecast for global economic growth at 3.2% in 2024. At the same time, the US economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter amid a 3.7% increase in consumer spending. The European Union’s economy shows more modest results: the growth forecast for 2024 has been lowered to 0.9%, and in the Eurozone – to 0.8%.
“The global economy is facing a number of challenges, including a slowdown in China and high interest rates. However, the key problem remains the persistent price pressure and geopolitical instability,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
The Chinese economy grew by 4.6% in the third quarter, but the growth forecast for 2024 was lowered to 4.8%. India continues to show stable growth at 7%, and Brazil has improved its performance to 3%.
“The global economy is now balancing between recovery and new risks. Forecasts for the coming years depend on the resolution of geopolitical conflicts and the ability of global leaders to stabilize the economy,” added Maksim Urakin.
The economic indicators of Ukraine and the world for the first nine months of 2024 show a contradictory picture. GDP growth and positive signals from global markets are combined with inflationary risks and an imbalance in foreign trade. The global economy is also under pressure from numerous uncertainties.
“It is important for Ukraine to focus on structural reforms that stimulate export growth and attract foreign investment. Only through the sustainable development of key industries can long-term economic stability be ensured,” – summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about current economic trends in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grE5wjPaItI
On Monday, members of the Bundestag passed a vote of no confidence in the government of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Bavarian Radio reports.
“The chancellor put up a confidence vote in the Bundestag and lost it as planned. This means that the president will dissolve the parliament, and elections will be held in February,” the radio station notes.
394 MPs expressed no confidence in Scholz’s government, 207 supported the government, and 116 abstained.
Scholz himself had previously called for such a vote, as European media reported that it would allow him to hold early elections. Now, Scholz is expected to ask German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve the Bundestag. If the parliament is dissolved, elections in Germany must be held within 60 days from the date of dissolution.
Earlier, Scholz, who heads the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), agreed with opposition parties on plans to hold early elections on February 23, 2025.
In November, the ruling coalition in Germany collapsed due to disagreements over Scholz’s economic policy.
At the same time, German parties are already preparing for early elections. The SPD leadership has decided to re-nominate Scholz as a candidate for chancellor. This decision still has to be approved by the party congress on January 11, 2025, but German media noted that this is just a formality. So far, the CDU leader Friedrich Merz, German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck from the Union 90/Greens party, and the head of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party Alice Weidel have also been considered candidates for the chancellorship.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video review of the most important elections in the world – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=k5LDANC7lkpbK0Nh
Maksim Urakin, Founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, PhD in Economics, shared his observations on key indicators and risks for the Ukrainian and global economies as of November 2024.
Macroeconomic situation in Ukraine
According to Maksim Urakin, Ukraine’s economy continues to show slow growth.
“According to the National Bank, in October 2024, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 1.3% compared to October last year. This is worse than the September figures, but significantly better than the data for the summer months. However, there are negative trends in agriculture. This year’s harvest was significantly lower than last year’s, which hit the agricultural sector, one of the key drivers of the economy,” said Maksim Urakin.
The expert also pointed to a sharp deterioration in the foreign trade balance.
“The deficit of foreign trade in goods increased by almost 6% over the first nine months, reaching a frightening $20 billion. The main reasons for this were the growth of energy imports and the lack of labor at export-oriented enterprises,” Urakin added.
According to the expert, Ukraine’s national debt is also a cause for great concern.
“As of October 2024, the debt is already 6.4 trillion hryvnias, or about $155 billion. At the same time, international reserves have decreased by more than $2 billion and amount to $36 billion,” Urakin emphasized.
Global economy: challenges and prospects
At the global level, the key risks are associated with the growing debt burden.
“Global public debt already exceeds $100 trillion, which is 93% of global GDP. In the coming years, this figure will continue to grow, which puts additional pressure on the budgets of most countries,” Urakin said.
The economies of developed countries, according to the expert, show heterogeneous dynamics. The United States is showing steady growth, with its GDP increasing by almost 3% in the third quarter. At the same time, the eurozone economy is actually stagnating, and Germany has faced zero dynamics, the economist said.
At the same time, China continues to play a key role in the global economy. “In the third quarter, China’s GDP growth remained at 5%, but the pace slowed due to geopolitical tensions and internal problems, particularly in the construction sector,” said Maksim Urakin.
Looking to the future
Maksim Urakin expressed cautious optimism about the long-term prospects.
“The global economy is facing many challenges, including inflation, geopolitical conflicts and protectionism. However, despite all the difficulties, there are reasons to believe that growth will continue at least within moderate limits,” he concluded.
The expert also called for more active international coordination to overcome economic challenges.
“Stability requires joint efforts, and only through dialogue and cooperation will we be able to minimize risks,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grE5wjPaItI
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
