Ukrainian metallurgical companies may increase steel production by 17% in 2026, to 8.9 million tons from 7.6 million tons in 2025, said Serhiy Povazhnyuk, deputy director of the state-owned enterprise Ukrpromzovnishchexpertiza, in an interview with telegraf.com.ua.
According to him, the main factors limiting production were security-related military risks, staff shortages, unstable electricity supplies due to missile and drone strikes on energy infrastructure, and the continuing shortage of scrap metal on the domestic market.
“As for the forecast for 2026, metallurgical plants have already announced plans to significantly increase liquid steel production, to approximately 8.9 million tons,” the expert said.
At the same time, he noted that the Ukrainian metallurgical industry is experiencing an acute shortage of ferrous metal scrap, in particular due to the growth in exports of this raw material abroad.
“If metallurgical plants manage to implement the planned increase in production, there may simply not be enough scrap metal collected. Domestic consumers should be given priority in terms of raw material supplies, especially now, during wartime,” said Povazhnyuk.
He cited calculations according to which 1 ton of scrap metal, which is processed into metal products at Interpipe’s facilities, for which scrap is the main raw material, brings the state UAH 7,500 in taxes. In addition, 1 ton of scrap used at Metinvest Group’s plants generates about UAH 9,300 in tax revenues to budgets at all levels.
As Povazhnyuk emphasized, this is a direct benefit that the state receives by keeping all scrap metal in the country and processing it into steel. In addition, such processing has a multiplier effect on the entire economy, as it stimulates growth in related industries, such as the production of iron ore, coke, and ferroalloys.
“All this needs to be transported within the country, which means that the transport industry receives additional cargo. According to calculations, these sectors will pay an additional 5.5-5.8 thousand UAH in taxes to the budget per ton of scrap metal consumed. Therefore, the total effect for the budget from processing 1 ton of scrap metal in Ukraine will be 13-14 thousand hryvnia/ton. In addition to cash inflows to the budget, metallurgical plants provide tens of thousands of official jobs for themselves and related enterprises,” the deputy director argued.
In addition, Povazhnyuk stated that exporters pay taxes and payroll charges (personal income tax, social security contributions, military tax), land tax, and income tax.
“According to our data, in 2024, the largest exporting companies, which accounted for almost 90% of Ukrainian scrap metal exports, exported a total of 247,000 tons of raw materials abroad, paying a total of only UAH 12.3 million in taxes. Thus, the state received an average of UAH 50 in taxes for each ton of scrap metal exported. The official number of employees in these companies was only a few dozen people,” said the expert, specifying that the calculations were made based on open data on the financial performance of companies available through the OpenDataBot service and other public sources.
At the same time, Poland has begun discussing the abolition of trade preferences for the Ukrainian metallurgical industry due to Ukraine’s intentions to introduce a de facto ban on the export of ferrous metal scrap. This was written on his social media page by Michal Poluboczek, a member of the Polish Sejm from the Confederation party.
According to the draft resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers “On the approval of lists of goods subject to licensing for export and import, and quotas for 2026,” it is proposed to set the quota for ferrous metal scrap for the next year at zero, which means a de facto ban on the export of ferrous metal scrap.
As reported, in January-November 2025, Ukrainian scrap collection companies increased exports of ferrous metal scrap by 45.3% compared to the same period in 2024, from 261,578 thousand tons to 380,165 thousand tons. In monetary terms, scrap exports increased by 37.4% to $112.782 million from $82.056 million. During the period in question, scrap exports were formally carried out mainly to Poland (79.80% of shipments in monetary terms), Greece (7.61%), and Italy (5.70%).
In addition, it was reported that due to the sharp increase in exports of strategic raw materials from Ukraine, the Ministry of Economy initiated the introduction of a licensing and quota regime for scrap exports with a zero quota. A public discussion of the draft resolution is currently underway. Its implementation is expected to contribute to the smooth operation of Ukraine’s metallurgical and foundry industries, as well as to stabilize the situation with regard to meeting the demand for scrap on the domestic market.
In 2024, Ukraine’s scrap collection companies increased their exports of ferrous metal scrap by 60.7% compared to 2023, from 182,465 thousand tons to 293,190 thousand tons. In monetary terms, scrap exports for the year increased by 73.2% to $91.311 million from $52.723 million.
Earlier, Valentin Makarenko, chairman of the board of Interpipe Vtormet, said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine that ferrous metal scrap exports have always been and remain a threat to the Ukrainian metallurgical industry, as they exacerbate the shortage of this raw material on the domestic market. In addition, this problem is compounded by the fact that during the war, the area suitable for scrap collection is shrinking.
Previously, large metallurgical plants most often compensated for the shortage of scrap mainly by increasing the consumption of pig iron during steel smelting. However, due to the shutdown of the Pokrovsk coal mining group and the increase in coking coal imports, replacing scrap with pig iron has become economically unfeasible in converter steel production.
According to Makarenko, at the same time, the importance of scrap as a raw material for decarbonization of industry is growing. The electrometallurgical method of steel smelting is becoming the most efficient and popular for the manufacture of metal products and their subsequent sale on European markets in order to minimize the impact of the “carbon” tax. Recognizing this trend, the European Union is resorting to various regulatory measures that allow ferrous metal scrap to remain within the bloc, and local steel mills have the raw materials to produce steel in the most economical and environmentally friendly way.
“Today, I don’t see any other effective mechanisms for stabilizing the market and reducing scrap exports, except for an administrative ban on the export of this strategic raw material outside Ukraine at the state level,” the chairman of the board summed up.
For more information on the largest steel producers and global industry trends, see the Experts Club video analysis review available on YouTube: Experts Club — Leaders of the global steel industry 1990–2024
The visualization of the dynamics of the top 20 countries by GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) for 1991-2024 from the Experts Club analytical center, which went viral on social media, is generally confirmed by international statistics: in 2024, the world’s largest economies in terms of GDP (PPP) China, the US, and India.
According to World Bank data on GDP, PPP (current international $), in 2024, China’s GDP in PPP was estimated at $38.19 trillion, the US at $29.18 trillion, and India at $16.19 trillion. The top ten economies by this indicator also included Russia (4th place), Japan (5th place), followed by Germany, Indonesia, Brazil, France, and the United Kingdom.
The Experts Club notes that the “race” from 1991 to 2024 reflects a long-term shift in the weight of the global economy towards Asia. At the start of the period, developed economies were the leaders, but then markets with large populations and domestic demand grew rapidly, and China and India gradually established themselves among the leaders.
“GDP at PPP does not show ‘wealth in currency’, but rather the scale of the economy, taking into account how many goods and services can actually be purchased within the country. Therefore, PPP better describes the domestic market and consumption potential, while for foreign trade, debt, and capital inflows, it is important to look at nominal indicators in parallel,” commented Maxim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center and candidate of economic sciences.
The GDP indicator in PPP terms converts the size of the economy into “international dollars,” taking into account differences in price levels between countries, so that the comparison is more accurate than when converted at market rates.
The video analysis by the Experts Club analytical center is available at the link:
Spot prices for silver hit a historic high amid increased demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of a softening of US Federal Reserve policy. Silver rose 1% to trade at $72.15 per ounce, with prices reaching a record high of $72.7 per ounce during the session, according to Experts Club.
Market participants attribute the growth to increased geopolitical risks, as well as “weak liquidity” at the end of the year, which can make market movements more volatile. As noted by Ilya Spivak, head of global macroeconomics at financial company Tastylive, precious metals are perceived as a neutral asset “without sovereign risk” in the context of deglobalization, and silver could approach $80 per ounce in the next 6-12 months.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center released a video analysis of the race for global leadership in silver production from 1971 to 2024. The analysis is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel.
On Wednesday, the price of gold on the spot market exceeded $4,500 per ounce for the first time in history, setting a new record.
By 8:31 a.m. Kyiv time, the spot price of gold had risen 0.1% to $4,490.56 per ounce, and earlier in the session it had risen to a record $4,525.77 per ounce. Futures on the Comex exchange also set a new historic high of $4,555.1 per ounce.
By 9:00 a.m. Kyiv time, these contracts had fallen back to $4,520.6 per ounce, which is 0.3% higher than the previous trading day.
Investors continue to buy gold as a safe-haven asset amid growing geopolitical tensions and expectations of further easing of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy amid a cooling labor market and slowing inflation. An additional factor is weak market liquidity at the end of the year, which exacerbates price volatility.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented an analysis of the world’s leading gold-producing countries in its video on YouTube channel — https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=BywddHO-JFWFqUFA
Copper prices on Tuesday for the first time exceeded the mark of $ 12 thousand per ton.
Quotes of three-month futures for copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) by 13:44 Q1 rose by 1% to $ 12,059 per ton.
Since the beginning of the year, the metal has risen in price by about 37%. If the same dynamics will be shown at the end of the year, it will be the strongest rise since 2009.
Quotes are supported by serious problems at some deposits and changes in trade flows due to the tariff policy of U.S. President Donald Trump.
The possibility of Trump’s introduction of duties on copper is one of the main factors in the growth of prices for this metal. The states have significantly increased its imports, forcing production companies from other countries into a highly competitive battle for the metal.
Outages at major mines in Chile and Peru and delays in Indonesia have reduced production by 8-12%, and the slow pace of new project development is limiting the global supply of concentrate.
In addition, Chinese smelters have agreed to the lowest-ever zero treatment and refining tariffs for 2026, which only emphasizes supply constraints and gives miners an additional bargaining advantage.
Meanwhile, demand in the electric vehicle, data center and power grid segments remains strong, with Goldman Sachs forecasting more than 60% growth in copper demand between now and 2030, Trading Economics wrote.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video on global copper production and leading producing countries – https://youtube.com/shorts/_h8iU50z8C0?si=a-XkgGEfeUxseQNa.
In November of this year, Ukrainian metallurgical companies increased steel production by 18.5% compared to the same period last year, from 541,000 tons to 641,000 tons, but decreased by 1.1% compared to the previous month (648,000 tons).
In the ranking of global producers of this product, compiled by the World Steel Association (Worldsteel), Ukraine ranked 20th among 70 countries.
According to Worldsteel, in November 2025, there was a decrease in steel production compared to November 2024 in half of the top ten countries, except for India, the US, Turkey, Iran, and Brazil.
The top ten steel-producing countries in November were as follows: China – 69.870 million tons (down 10.9% from November 2024), India – 13.713 million tons (up 10.8%), the US – 6.8 million tons (+8.5%), Japan – 6.774 million tons (-1.6%), Russia – 5.190 million tons (-6.6%), South Korea – 4.965 million tons (-4.8%), Iran – 3.356 million tons (+9.2%), Turkey – 3.312 million tons (+10%), Germany – 2.841 million tons (-2.6%), and Brazil – 2.8 million tons (+0.7%).
Overall, steel production in November this year decreased by 4.6% compared to the same period last year, to 140.130 million tons.
Based on the results of the first 11 months of this year, the top ten steel-producing countries are as follows: China – 891.670 million tons (-4% compared to January-November 2024), India – 150.062 million tons (+10.3%), the US – 75.103 million tons (+3.2%), Japan – 74.102 million tons (-3.9%), Russia – 61.774 million tons (-5%), South Korea – 56.109 million tons (-3.7%), Turkey – 34.589 million tons (+2%), Germany – 31.346 million tons (-9.3%), Brazil – 30.788 million tons (-1.5%), and Iran – 28.798 million tons (+0.1%).
Over the first 11 months of this year, Ukrainian steel companies reduced steel production by 3.1% compared to the same period last year, from 7.028 million tons to 6.813 million tons. The country ranked 21st.
Overall, global steel production in January-November 2025 decreased by 2% compared to the same period in 2024, to 1 billion 662.222 million tons.
As reported, at the end of 2024, the top ten steel-producing countries among 71 countries were as follows: China – 1 billion 5.090 million tons (-1.7%), India – 149.587 million tons (+6.3%), Japan – 84.009 million tons (-3.4%), the US – 79.452 million tons (-2.4%), Russia – 70.690 million tons (-7%), South Korea – 63.531 million tons (-4.7%), Germany – 37.234 million tons (+5.2%), Turkey – 36.893 million tons (+9.4%), Brazil – 33.741 million tons (+5.3%), and Iran – 30.952 million tons (+0.8%).
In total, 71 countries produced 1 billion 839.449 million tons of steel last year, which is 0.9% less than in 2023.
At the same time, Ukraine produced 7.575 million tons of steel in 2024, which is 21.6% higher than in 2023 (6.228 million tons). The country ranked 20th in 2024.
In 2023, China produced 1 billion 19.080 million tons (at the level of the previous year), India – 140.171 million tons (+11.8%), Japan – 86.996 million tons (-2.5%), the US – 80.664 million tons (+0.2%), Russia – 75.8 million tons (+5.6%), South Korea – 66.676 million tons (+1.3%), Germany – 35.438 million tons (-3.9%), Turkey – 33.714 million tons (-4%), Brazil – 31.869 million tons (-6.5%), and Iran – 31.139 million tons (+1.8%). In total, 71 countries produced 1 billion 849.734 million tons of steel in 2023, which is 0.1% less than in 2022.
At the same time, Ukraine produced 6.228 million tons of steel in 2023, which is 0.6% less than in 2022. The country ranked 22nd in 2023.
At the end of 2022, the top ten steel-producing countries were as follows: China – 1.013 billion tons (-2.1%), India – 124.720 million tons (+5.5%), Japan – 89.235 million tons (-7.4%), the US – 80.715 million tons (-5.9%), Russia – 71.5 million tons (-7.2%), South Korea – 65.865 million tons (-6.5%), Germany – 36.849 million tons (-8.4%), Turkey – 35.134 million tons (-12.9%), Brazil – 33.972 million tons (-5.8%), and Iran – 30.593 million tons (+8%).
Ukraine ranked 23rd in 2022 with 6.263 million tons of steel (-70.7%).
In total, 64 countries produced 1 billion 831.467 million tons of steel in 2022, which is 4.3% less than in 2021.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center released a video analysis of the world’s leading steel producers from 2001 to 2024 – https://youtube.com/shorts/VgUU9MEMosE?si=c5yD04gmNtJoFblB
