Over the past three decades, pig farming has remained one of the most important components of global agricultural production. It has played a key role in providing the population with animal protein, shaping export flows in Asia and Europe, while remaining vulnerable to global epidemiological risks. Experts Club analysts have studied changes in the global pig population between 1990 and 2023.
“Pig farming is an industry where economics is closely intertwined with biological risks. It is extremely profitable in stable conditions, but it instantly suffers from any disruptions in the veterinary or logistics chain,” said Maxim Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
In the early 1990s, the total number of pigs in the world grew steadily, especially in China, which became the largest producer and consumer of pork. Mass industrial production, urbanization, and high demand for meat in the Asia-Pacific region stimulated capacity expansion. By the mid-2010s, the industry was at its peak: in some years, the number of pigs in the world exceeded one billion. This dynamic reflected the successful commercialization of the industry in China, Vietnam, Brazil, the United States, Germany, and Spain.
However, after 2018, the global pig industry faced one of the most significant challenges in recent decades — the African swine fever (ASF) pandemic. The epizootic, which began in China, spread to dozens of countries and led to a massive reduction in livestock numbers. In China alone, it is estimated that more than 100 million pigs were destroyed. This caused a meat shortage in the global market, price increases, a crisis in feed chains, and a reorientation of international trade.
“After the ASF outbreak, China began to actively reform the structure of pig farming, moving from small farms to large biosecure complexes. This also affected the global market, as demand for safe and controlled meat rose sharply,” Urakin explained.
Europe, in turn, found itself under pressure from environmental legislation and growing animal welfare requirements. In the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany, the industry declined not only due to disease but also due to political decisions to reduce methane and nitrate emissions. In North America, the situation remained stable, although it was affected by tariff wars, especially in US-China relations.
Today, the global pig industry has partially recovered but remains in a phase of restructuring. China is gradually restoring its livestock population, but on new principles — with strict control of biosecurity, genetics, and investment in innovation. At the same time, more and more countries are investing in alternative proteins — cultured meat and plant-based pork substitutes — which poses long-term risks to the traditional industry.
“The future of pig farming is a symbiosis of biotechnology, sustainable management, and veterinary reliability. Those who cannot adapt will lose the market,” concluded Maxim Urakin.
A detailed analysis of the situation on the pork market and a visualization of global trends can be found in a special video review on the Experts Club YouTube channel.
AGRICULTURAL MARKET, ANIMAL HUSBANDRY, EXPERTS_CLUB, PIG FARMING, URAKIN
Karol Nawrocki, candidate from the Law and Justice party, has won the second round of the presidential election in Poland, according to Gazeta Wyborcza.
According to the Polish National Electoral Commission, after 100% of the votes were counted, he received 50.89%.
It is noted that his opponent, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, received 49.1% of the vote.
A week before the election, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called presidential candidate Nawrocki’s statement that Poland would never support Ukraine’s accession to NATO treason.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video analysis dedicated to the most important elections in the world in 2025. For more details, see here — https://youtu.be/u1NMbFCCRx0?si=6L76qeuNamxg6py1
ECONOMY, EXPERTS_CLUB, Karol Navrotsky, POLITICS, PRESIDENT OF POLAND, URAKIN
Voting in the presidential election began in Romania at 7:00 a.m. on Sunday. The second round features George Simion, representative of the right-wing Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, and Nicușor Dăncilă, the incumbent mayor of the capital Bucharest, who received the most votes in the first round on May 4.
“We voted so that only Romanians decide our future, for Romanians and for Romania,“ Simion told reporters outside a polling station.
“We decide what kind of country we want to be: a country of hope, dialogue, and development,” Dănălescu wrote on Facebook.
According to Reuters, despite the fact that 38-year-old Simion won 41% of the vote in the first round and 55-year-old Dan only 21%, opinion polls show that they have almost equal chances of winning, or show a slight advantage for Simion. Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video analysis dedicated to the most important elections in the world in 2025. For more details, see here —
The world is entering a phase of political change in 2025. Important elections will take place in different countries, the results of which can significantly affect both geopolitics and internal processes of states. In a new YouTube video, Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank, and Oleksandr Poznyi, co-founder of the Active Group research company, analyze the main political events of the year and the possible consequences for Ukraine.
After the scandalous cancellation of the presidential election results, a second vote is scheduled for December 2024 in Romania. The election brought unexpected results, and the winner of the first round campaigned exclusively on TikTok. This sparked discussions around the world, as it was the first time a social network played a key role in the political process. However, the country’s Constitutional Court canceled the election results due to the detected Russian influence, and a new vote is scheduled for May 2025.
“The situation in Romania is unprecedented, as the Constitutional Court has annulled the first round of elections. This may cause political turbulence, which will affect the country’s foreign policy,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
In his turn, Oleksandr Poznyi emphasized that this case proves that influence technologies are changing, and social networks such as TikTok can become a key tool for voter mobilization.
“This is a dangerous signal for Ukraine as well, because we see that political forces are beginning to use this platform as a way to manipulate public opinion,” added Pozniy.
On February 23, early elections to the Bundestag will be held after the coalition collapse in 2024. The main struggle will be between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), but the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has anti-immigration and pro-Russian rhetoric, may also play an important role.
“The struggle between the CDU and the SPD will be intense. If the AfD gets second or even first place, it could change Germany’s policy towards Ukraine. So far, the mainstream parties are not ready to form a coalition with them, but their influence is growing,” Maksym Urakin believes.
The parliamentary elections in Moldova will also determine the country’s foreign policy course.
“Moldova is facing a choice between the European path and the pro-Russian vector. This choice will have a significant impact on regional policy. The elections will decide whether the country will continue its European course under the leadership of President Maia Sandu or whether the Socialists, represented by Igor Dodon, will be able to regain power,” said Poznyi.
He also emphasized that Moldova is a parliamentary republic, and even if Sandu wins the presidential election, it does not guarantee that her political force will retain a majority.
On May 18, Poles will elect a new president, as Andrzej Duda cannot run for a third time. Experts believe that this is one of the most important elections for Ukraine, as Polish support is strategic. The tense confrontation between Law and Justice and the opposition will determine the future of Polish-Ukrainian relations. The Ukrainian issue will play an important role, but voters are more focused on domestic issues, such as the situation with Polish farmers who are unhappy with Ukrainian grain imports.
“Candidates will have to maneuver between supporting Ukraine and protecting national interests,” says Mr. Poznyi.
Serbia is one of the few countries in Europe that continues to balance between the EU and Russia. President Aleksandar Vucic has twice hinted at the possibility of early elections in 2025, especially amid protests and the escalating situation in Kosovo.
In October, elections will also be held in Canada and Argentina, which could change the foreign policy courses of these countries. On September 8, Norway will vote, and on November 16, Chile will vote.
“The elections in Canada are important for Ukraine, as further assistance will depend on them. It is also worth following the processes in Norway, which supports European security,” summarizes Maksym Urakin.
The year 2025 promises to be full of important political events that could change the international agenda. Ukraine must take into account the possible consequences of elections in strategic countries and prepare for new challenges on the global stage.
For more details about the elections to be held this year, please watch the video:
Subscribe to the Experts Club channel here:
https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
In the Southeast Asian region, Ukrainians have the most positive attitude toward Japan and South Korea. This is evidenced by the results of a joint study by the Experts Club think tank and the Active Group research company, presented at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Thursday.
“Our research has shown that in East Asia, Ukrainians are most supportive of Japan and South Korea. Attitudes toward these countries largely depend on their support for Ukraine after the war began. In the Caucasus region, a positive attitude toward Georgia remains. Also, more than 50% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude towards Kazakhstan. The lowest level of support was recorded for such countries as the DPRK, Syria, and Iraq,” said Oleksandr Poznyi, director of the Active Group research company.
According to the expert, the negative attitude of Ukrainians toward China is also quite eloquent.
“Only 4% of citizens have a positive attitude toward China, 16.7% have a mostly positive attitude, 58.8% have a negative attitude, and 20% have not decided. Currently, China’s position is not entirely unambiguous in relation to Ukraine, which is reflected in the attitude of Ukrainians,” Mr. Poznyi emphasized.
In his turn, Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank and deputy director of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, presented an analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade with a number of Asian countries based on data from the State Customs Service for 2023.
“The largest market for Ukrainian goods in Asia is China – more than $2 billion. India ranks second, followed by Kazakhstan, Georgia, Iraq, and Indonesia. As for imports, China is also the largest importer to Ukraine, with more than $10 billion. It is followed by India, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam. In terms of total trade between Ukraine and these countries, China is also the leader, with almost $13 billion. India ranks second – 2.5 billion, followed by Japan – almost a billion,” said Urakin.
According to him, the analysis of economic data shows that Ukraine has significant trade ties with the countries of the Middle East and East Asia. At the same time, China remains one of our country’s largest trading partners in terms of both exports and imports.
“The problem of trade deficit remains, as Ukraine spends a lot of money on imports, while earning little on exports. This is a real problem. In 2023, Ukraine’s trade deficit with all countries is over $27 billion. The deficit with China is $8 billion. Among the countries represented today, we have a positive balance only with Iraq – almost $200 million in favor of Ukraine, Georgia – $100 million, and Armenia – $54 million,” Urakin added.
Chairman of the Ukrainian-Arab Business Council, member of the Council of National Communities of Ukraine Dr. Emad Abu Alrub emphasized that the importance of Ukraine’s relations with the countries of Asia and the Arab world cannot be overestimated, and Ukraine is currently taking important steps to develop these relations.
“Ukraine has significant opportunities in the markets of Arab countries, which have a total population of over 550 million. Arab countries are a permanent market for our goods. After 2014, new markets opened up for our country, especially in Asia. The Ukrainian Arab Business Council is actively working to develop these relations. We need to create a strategic plan to improve relations at the level of economy, politics, and culture. We have significant chances for success, but we need better communication and marketing,” emphasized Dr. Abu Alrub.
He also added that Saudi Arabia is interested in cooperating with Ukraine by investing not only in trade, but also in agriculture, technology, and other projects. Other interesting countries are the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt. All of them also have great potential for investment in Ukraine.
In conclusion, Maksym Urakin called on foreign embassies to be more active in establishing communication with Ukrainian society.
“If you can, please provide information to journalists about what you are doing here, how you are helping in the humanitarian sphere. Through these ties, we will deepen our cooperation, because the way Ukrainian citizens view your countries also depends on your work,” he concluded.
ACTIVE_GROUP, ALEXANDER_POZNYI, EAST_ASIA, ECONOMY, EXPERTS_CLUB, MAXIM_URAKIN, MIDDLE_EAST, SOCIOLOGY, SURVEY
In a new video on its YouTube channel, Kyiv-based think tank Experts Club has presented an analysis of economic trends in the first quarter of 2024 in Ukraine and globally based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the World Bank, and expert forecasts.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the Center’s founder, Maksym Urakin, in the first quarter of 2024, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 4.1% to 5.3% compared to the same period last year.
“The main growth factors were an increase in agricultural exports and production activity in certain industries. However, the negative balance of foreign trade in goods in the first quarter amounted to almost $6 billion, which is 10% more than last year. This is due to an increase in energy imports after the strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector in March,” Urakin said.
According to the founder of the Experts Club, Ukraine’s national debt has reached a new historical high of $151 billion, which is almost 6 trillion hryvnia in hryvnia equivalent. Inflation in Ukraine in the first quarter was 1% year-on-year, which is in line with the NBU’s target range.
Global economy
Maksym Urakin noted that analysts forecast that the global economy will grow by 2% in 2024, which is lower than expected at the end of last year. The main reasons for the slowdown are high interest rates in developed countries and global geopolitical uncertainty.
“The US economy grew by 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, which is lower than the growth rate observed in previous quarters, but still at an acceptable level for the development of the country’s economy. China’s economy grew by 5% due to a partial recovery from the crisis and government injections into the technology cluster,” the expert summarized.
He also reminded that the European Commission expects the eurozone economy to grow by only 0.8% in 2024, even less than 1%.
“High inflation and weak domestic demand remain the main problems of the EU countries. However, the British economy showed a modest growth of 0.6%, which indicates a weak recovery after the pandemic and Brexit,” Urakin said.
The economic situation in the world remains tense and depends on many factors, including geopolitical risks and changes in the global economic and political landscape. Experts Club will continue to monitor the situation and provide up-to-date and balanced news.
You can learn more about the macroeconomics of Ukraine and the world in the video by following the link:
Subscribe to the Experts Club channel:
