The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports by 0.5 million tons to 16.0 million tons, leaving corn exports unchanged at 22.0 million tons and wheat and corn production at 23.4 million tons and 26.8 million tons, respectively.
According to the April forecast, the global wheat market in the 2024-2025 marketing year is expected to decrease slightly in production, consumption, and trade volume compared to the previous month’s forecast, while ending stocks are expected to increase.
World wheat production is expected to decline by 0.3 million tons to 796.9 million tons due to lower production estimates in Saudi Arabia and the EU (-0.3 million tons to 121.0 million tons).
World wheat consumption is projected 1.4 million tons lower to 805.2 million tons, mainly due to lower food, seed, and industrial use in India and China.
World trade in MY 2024/2025 is projected 1.3 million tons lower to 206.8 million tons, mainly due to lower export forecasts for Russia (-1.0 million tons to 44.0 million tons), Australia (-0.5 million tons to 25.5 million tons), and the EU (-0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons), only partially offset by higher exports for Canada (+0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons) and Ukraine (+0.5 million tons to 16.0 million tons).
Exports in MY 2024/2025 are expected to be 7% lower than in the previous year.
Projected world ending stocks for MY 2024/2025 are increased by 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million tons, as increases in stocks in India, the Russian Federation, the US and the EU are partially offset by lower stocks in China. World stocks for MY 2024/2025 are now 3% below the previous year and the lowest since MY 2015/2016.
The updated forecasts for the global corn market in MY 2024/2025 assume higher production, consumption, trade volumes and a corresponding reduction in ending stocks.
The forecast for world corn production increased by 0.9 million tons to 1,215.1 million tons. Increases in the EU (+1.3 million tons to 59.3 million tons due to increased harvests in Poland, Croatia, France and Germany, partially offset by decreases in Romania and Bulgaria), Tanzania and Honduras were partially offset by decreases in Moldova, Cambodia and Kenya.
The world export forecast rises by 2.3 million tons to 188.7 million tons. Major changes in world trade for MY 2024/2025 include an increase in projected corn exports for the United States (+2.5 million tons to 64.8 million tons) and a decrease for Pakistan.
Corn ending stocks declined by 1.3 million tons to 287.7 million tons, reflecting lower stocks in the U.S. and higher stocks in South Korea, Pakistan.
In January-March of this year, Ukraine’s steelmaking companies reduced their revenues from ferrous metal exports by 3.2% year-on-year to $728.686 million.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS) on Tuesday, ferrous metals accounted for 7.32% of total export revenues during this period, compared to 7.48% in January-March 2024.
In March, export revenues amounted to $309.487 million, while in the previous month they amounted to $200.430 million.
At the same time, Ukraine increased imports of similar products by 12.7% to $363.674 million in January-March 2025. In March, products worth $135.509 million were imported.
In addition, in January-March 2025, Ukraine increased exports of metal products by 3.5% to $238.045 million. In March, they were exported for $93.423 million.
Imports of metal products decreased by 3.3% to $225.655 million over the same period. In March, these products were imported for $87.574 million.
As reported earlier, in 2024, Ukraine’s steelmaking companies increased revenues from ferrous metal exports by 16.9% year-on-year to $3 billion 96.343 million. At the same time, Ukraine increased imports of similar products by 13.1% last year to $1 billion 478.814 million.
In 2023, Ukraine reduced revenues from exports of ferrous metals by 41.6% compared to 2022, to $2 billion 647.72 million, with ferrous metals accounting for 7.3% of total revenues from exports of goods during this period, while in 2022 the share was 10.3%. At the same time, in 2023, Ukraine increased imports of similar products by 37% to $1 billion 307.05 million.
In addition, in 2023, Ukraine decreased exports of metal products by 16.6% year-on-year to $877.92 million, while imports of metal products increased by 40.3% to $902.57 million.
In 2024, Ukraine demonstrated an increase in foreign trade, but there are still problems that limit its opportunities in international markets. The lack of a sufficient number of enterprises with deep processing, complex logistics, and the impact of global economic processes pose serious challenges for Ukrainian business.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, and Yevheniia Lytvynova, president of the Ukrainian Exporters Club, analyzed the trends of 2024 and assessed the development prospects for 2025.
Trade balance: export growth but large deficit
According to experts, the total volume of Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 reached USD 113 billion, which is 13% more than in 2023.
Key figures:
Despite the growth in exports, the main problem remains a significant trade deficit. This indicates that the economy is dependent on imports, which puts additional pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate and requires finding new solutions to increase exports of high value-added products.
“Despite the positive dynamics of exports, Ukraine is still dependent on imports, especially in the field of technology and equipment. The negative balance remains a serious challenge for our economy,” said Yevheniya Lytvynova.
Main trading partners: Poland, Spain, Germany
Experts Club has compiled a list of Ukraine’s top 10 trading partners in terms of exports:
1. Poland – 4.7 billion dollars
2. Spain – 2.9 billion dollars
3. Germany – 2.8 billion dollars
4. China – 2.3 billion dollars
5. Turkey – 2.1 billion dollars
6. The Netherlands – 1.98 billion dollars
7. Italy – 1.93 billion dollars
8. Egypt – 1.6 billion dollars
9. India – 986 million dollars
10. Moldova – $935 million
“In 2024, Spain unexpectedly ranked second among importers of Ukrainian products. This is partly due to the high demand for Ukrainian products due to the migration of Ukrainians. However, it should be borne in mind that a significant portion of these exports is re-exported via European countries,” explained Maksym Urakin.
At the same time, China has traditionally been in the lead among Ukraine’s top 10 importers:
1. China – $14.4 billion
2. Poland – $7 billion
3. Germany – 5.4 billion dollars
4. Turkey – 4.72 billion dollars
5. USA – 2.86 billion dollars
6. Italy – 2.27 billion dollars
7. Bulgaria – 2.22 billion dollars
8. India – 1.88 billion dollars
9. Czech Republic – 1.78 billion dollars
10. France – 1.75 billion dollars
Export structure: Ukraine remains a supplier of raw materials
Food products account for the largest share of exports – about $25 billion. Other main products include metals (about $5 billion) and equipment ($4 billion).
“Ukraine continues to export mostly raw materials. This means that the main profit from processing and added value remains abroad. We need reforms that will allow us to develop domestic production and processing,” emphasized Yevheniya Lytvynova.
Import structure: machinery, chemicals, fuel
In 2024, the largest categories of imports were machinery and equipment ($25 billion), chemicals ($11.7 billion), and energy ($8.9 billion).
“The main share of imports is aimed at supporting business rather than the consumer market. This means that companies are actively upgrading production and importing machinery,” explained Maksym Urakin.
New markets: opportunities and obstacles
In 2025, many Ukrainian companies are planning to enter the markets of the Middle East, Africa and Asia more actively. In particular, a free trade agreement is expected to be signed with Turkey, which will make the country an even more important trading partner.
“Turkey is already one of Ukraine’s top five partners. If the FTA is ratified, we will see an even greater increase in trade turnover,” emphasized Yevgeniya Lytvynova.
At the same time, global protectionism and trade wars may create additional challenges. The United States has already begun to impose new duties on imports from Canada, Mexico and China.
“If the US imposes additional duties, it could lead to a chain reaction in global trade, and price increases will affect even Ukraine. Our companies should be ready to adapt to the new realities,” said Maksym Urakin.
What should Ukrainian businesses do?
When it comes to the main recommendations for exporters in 2025, the experts identified the following areas:
1. It is necessary to diversify markets by balancing exports to the EU with the simultaneous development of the Middle East, Asia and Africa.
2. Develop processing by reducing exports of raw materials and expanding sales of high value-added products.
3. Increase competitiveness by adapting production to the requirements of foreign markets.
4. Preparing for changes in global trade by adapting the strategy in response to possible duties and trade barriers.
“We have to learn to play by the rules of global competition. If Ukrainian exporters are not ready for changes, the market will be quickly taken over by someone else,” summarized Yevgeniya Lytvynova.
You can learn more about Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 in the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFxad1mplE0&t
You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ECONOMY, EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORTERS CLUB, EXPORTS, IMPORTS, TRADE, URAKIN, ЛИТВИНОВА
The closure of the Mykolaiv seaport has brought the shipbuilding industry to a standstill and halted shipping on the E-40 river routes (Dnipro and Southern Bug), so the development of alternative export routes is an urgent need for food security in the world, said Mykhailo Rizak, Director of Government Relations at Nibulon JV LLC.
“Mykolaiv’s port facilities are ready to resume operations as soon as a political decision is made to open them, which will increase transshipment competition and reduce the cost of export logistics. More than 100 vessels are still blocked in the Mykolaiv port hub, including 30 foreign sea vessels and 70 vessels for inland waterways,” the agroholding’s press service quoted him as saying at a meeting with French Ambassador to Ukraine Gael Veyer.
Rizak noted that the evacuated vessels, which were previously used for transportation, are now idle and looking for new water routes around the world, including the Danube River.
“The development of alternative export routes is no longer a matter of choice, but an urgent need for food security in the world. Today, the Danube ports are strategic for Ukraine’s economic security, and we must do everything possible to maintain their competitiveness,” Rizak said.
Nibulon representatives paid special attention to the tariff policy of Ukrzaliznytsia during the negotiations. They emphasized that with the opening of Odesa’s deep-water ports, the cost of transportation through the Danube ports has become at least $5 per ton more expensive, and with the announced tariff indexation, the difference could be up to $7.
The indexation of Ukrzaliznytsia’s tariffs will either be a lifeline for water transportation on the Danube River or an unbearable dead anchor, the agricultural holding company is confident.
Rizak pointed to the possibility of indexing rail transportation without applying it to routes to/from railway stations near Danube ports.
“This will make it possible to equalize the Danube’s competition with deep-water seaports and stimulate further development of the Danube infrastructure, which has been supported by the USAID Economic Support for Ukraine project and other international donor programs. Thus, Ukraine will ensure sustainable exports without losing money in the event of an aggravation of the security situation in the Black Sea, and international partners will see the real implementation of the European Commission’s decision to build solidarity routes,” Nibulon emphasized.
The French Ambassador highly appreciated the work of Nibulon and expressed his readiness to assist in resolving important issues at the international level.
Nibulon was established in 1991. Prior to the Russian military invasion, the grain trader had 27 transshipment terminals and crop reception complexes, a one-time storage capacity of 2.25 million tons of agricultural products, a fleet of 83 vessels (including 23 tugs), and owned the Mykolaiv Shipyard.
“Before the war, Nibulon cultivated 82 thousand hectares of land in 12 regions of Ukraine and exported agricultural products to more than 70 countries. In 2021, the grain trader exported the highest ever 5.64 million tons of agricultural products, reaching record volumes of supplies to foreign markets in August – 0.7 million tons, in the fourth quarter – 1.88 million tons, and in the second half of the year – 3.71 million tons.
The grain trader is currently operating at 32% of capacity, has set up a special unit to clear agricultural land of mines and had to move its headquarters from Mykolaiv to Kyiv.
In 2024, Ukraine’s metallurgical enterprises increased revenues from ferrous metal exports by 16.9% year-on-year to $3 billion 96.343 million.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), ferrous metals accounted for 7.42% of total export revenues in this period, compared to 7.32% in 2023.
In December, revenues from exports of ferrous metals amounted to $223.772 million, while in the previous month – $207.343 million.
At the same time, Ukraine increased imports of similar products by 13.1% to $1 billion 478.814 million last year. In December, the country imported products worth $108.227 million.
In addition, in 2024, Ukraine increased exports of metal products by 7.6% to $944.683 million. In December, they were exported for $73.676 million.
Imports of metal products increased by 14.9% to $1 billion 37.051 million during this period. In December, these products were imported for $76.205 million.
As reported earlier, in 2023, Ukraine’s steelmaking companies reduced revenues from exports of ferrous metals by 41.6% compared to 2022, to $2 billion 647.72 million, with ferrous metals accounting for 7.3% of total revenues from exports of goods in this period, compared to 10.3% in 2022. At the same time, in 2023, Ukraine increased imports of similar products by 37% to $1 billion 307.05 million.
In addition, in 2023, Ukraine decreased exports of metal products by 16.6% year-on-year to $877.92 million, while imports of metal products increased by 40.3% to $902.57 million.
Ukrainian enterprises increased exports of ferrous scrap by 54.5% in January-October this year compared to the same period last year, up to 226,970 thousand tons from 146,927 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service, 24.549 thousand tons of scrap were exported in October, 24.767 thousand tons in September, 28.425 thousand tons in August, and 24.425 thousand tons in July. tons, in July – 24,702 thousand tons, in June – 22,161 thousand tons, in May – 14,952 thousand tons, in April – 26,153 thousand tons, in March – 20,907 thousand tons, in February – 23,194 thousand tons, in January – 17,160 thousand tons.
In monetary terms, scrap exports increased by 70.7% to $71.862 million from $42.088 million.
In January-October, Ukraine exported scrap mainly to Poland (84.70%), Greece (11.53%) and Germany (3.40%).
For the first ten months of the year, the country imported 90 tons of scrap for $104 thousand, while in January-October 2023, 793 tons of scrap were imported for $301 thousand. Imports this year were carried out mainly from Turkey (68.27% in monetary terms), the British Virgin Islands (13.46%) and Panama (6.73%).
As reported, in 2023, Ukraine’s scrap collecting enterprise increased scrap exports from the country by 3.4 times compared to the previous year – up to 182,485 thousand tons from 53,557 thousand tons. In monetary terms, exports increased 2.74 times to $52.723 million from $19.271 million.
Earlier, Ukrmetallurgprom President Oleksandr Kalenkov stated in a column on the Interfax-Ukraine website that scrap is exported through the European Union, which has a preferential export duty of EUR3 per ton, and from there the raw materials are redirected to real customers. He noted that exporting raw materials directly to customers would cost EUR180 in export duties, and the Ukrainian budget has already lost UAH 350 million.
The head of Ukrmetallurgprom called for a temporary ban on the export of ferrous scrap to provide steelmakers with strategically important raw materials during the war. He also clarified that a ton of scrap metal processed into steel brings in 10 times more to the budget than the EU export duty, which is about $300 per ton.
In 2022, Ukraine reduced exports of ferrous scrap by 11.5 times compared to the previous year, to 53,557 thousand tons, and in monetary terms, it decreased by 12.4 times, to $19.271 million.
