Barley exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) are forecast at 2.8 million tons, which is 22% higher than the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UACB) on Facebook.
The association’s analysts noted that barley production has remained relatively stable during the years of war, although it has declined significantly compared to the pre-war period. In 2025/26 MY, Ukraine harvested 5.3 million tons of this crop, which is 0.4% more than in the previous marketing year, but 19.7% less than the average for the last five years.
Among the key trends of the season, experts highlighted the largest reduction in barley acreage among all grains due to the temporary occupation of territories and low export potential. The area under cultivation was 1.4 million hectares, which is 0.9% less than in the previous marketing year and 26.4% below the five-year average. At the same time, barley was the only grain crop to show an increase in yield to 3.9 tons/ha, which was 8.4% higher than the average for the last five years.
Experts emphasized that increased production and high carryover stocks allowed for increased shipments to foreign markets after a decline in the 2024/2025 season. At the same time, Ukraine continues to experience a prolonged decline in domestic barley consumption, which is estimated at 2.8 million tons in the current marketing year. Of this volume, 1.9 million tons are used for feed, and 0.2 million tons are used for food.
“Despite the largest reduction in acreage among all grains, barley managed to maintain production volumes thanks to increased yields. The decline in domestic consumption and the availability of carryover stocks will allow Ukraine to increase exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year, meeting the demand of countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East,” the UACB concluded.
The gross grain harvest in Ukraine in the 2026-2027 marketing year (MY, July-June) is forecast at 58.7 million tons, which is 4% lower than the current season’s figures, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
According to analysts’ March estimates, the wheat harvest is expected to reach almost 20 million tons, which is 14% less than in the current season. Barley harvest may amount to 5.1 million tons (-5%), while corn production is forecast at 31.8 million tons, which is 3% higher than last year.
“This forecast is based on the reduction in the area sown with winter crops due to the drought in the fall and unfavorable weather conditions in February this year, which may lead to the partial destruction of winter crops in some regions, as well as a possible slight increase in the area sown with corn due to the replanting of winter crops amid high demand for this grain,” the agency explains.
At the same time, despite the expected decline in gross harvest, experts estimated the export potential of grains in 2026/27 MY at 42 million tons, which is 4% more than in 2025/26 MY. The growth in supplies to foreign markets will be facilitated by high carryover stocks from the current season, which may amount to 11.4 million tons, APK-Inform concluded.
According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC), agricultural exports from Ukraine totaled 5.0 million tons in February 2026, which is 0.3% higher than the previous month.
“This is the fourth month in a row that agricultural exports have remained at 5.0 million tons with minimal deviations. The main product currently being exported is corn,” analysts said.
In the export structure for February, grain crops accounted for the largest share—3.4 million tons, which is 1% more than in January. In this segment, corn accounted for 81% of supplies, and wheat—19%. At the same time, exports of oilseeds decreased by 14% to 303.5 thousand tons (soybeans — 72%, rapeseed — 25%, sunflower — 2%).
Supplies of vegetable oils to foreign markets in February fell by 9% and amounted to 437.7 thousand tons. In this category, sunflower oil accounts for 83%, rapeseed oil for 10%, and soybean oil for 7%. On the other hand, exports of oilcake after the extraction of vegetable oils increased by 14% to 470.4 thousand tons, with sunflower oil accounting for 75% and soybean oil for 25%. Exports of other types of agricultural products increased by 3% to 359.7 thousand tons.
Ukraine will export 23.8 million tons of corn in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June), which is 8.3% more than in the previous MY, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UACB) on Facebook.
According to the association, production volumes are gradually recovering after the occupation of part of the territory: the harvest will reach 29.9 million tons (+11.2% compared to last year), although this is 6.8% less than the average for the last five years.
Analysts explained the improvement in gross harvest by an 11.6% increase in acreage to 4.5 million hectares. At the same time, due to heavy autumn rains, the harvest was delayed, and the average yield was 6.6 t/ha, which is 0.3% less than in the previous marketing year.
The UAC noted that in the 2024/25 marketing year, corn exports decreased by 25.6% (to 22.0 million tons) due to lower production and a decrease in carryover stocks from 6.4 million tons to 3.7 million tons. Experts estimated total domestic consumption in 2025/26 MY at 6.2 million tons, of which 5.2 million tons will be used for feed, 182 thousand tons for seeds, and 418 thousand tons for non-food processing.
“The Ukrainian corn market remains flexible. Despite the loss of land due to temporary occupation and difficult weather conditions, farmers are managing to increase acreage and gross harvest. The crop meets domestic demand for animal feed and is returning to export growth, remaining one of the mainstays of Ukrainian exports,” the UCAAB concluded.
Astarta, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, supplied over 870,000 tons of agricultural products to foreign markets in 2025, the company reported on its website.
According to the report, exports of soybean products (oil and meal) increased by 15% compared to 2024. The main markets in this segment were Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Austria. In addition, the company exported sugar to 25 countries, mainly to the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa) and Europe.
In 2025, wheat and corn were supplied to EU countries (Italy, the Netherlands, Spain), the United Kingdom, as well as Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Vietnam.
“Global trade uncertainty requires new approaches. We continue to export and adapt our work through interaction within our partner ecosystem,” said Vyacheslav Chuk, Director of Commercial Operations and Strategic Marketing at Astarta.
Astarta is a vertically integrated agro-industrial holding operating in eight regions of Ukraine. It includes six sugar factories, agricultural enterprises with a land bank of 220,000 hectares and dairy farms with 22,000 head of cattle, an oil extraction plant in Hlobyn (Poltava region), seven elevators, and a biogas complex.
According to the results of 2025, Astarta reduced its total revenue from sales of key product categories by 15.6% compared to 2024, to UAH 21.05 billion, while physical sales volumes of its main products fell by 23.5%, to 1.21 million tons.
The National Bank of Ukraine has increased the deadline for settlements on agricultural and specialized equipment export transactions carried out from March 1, 2026, from 180 to 270 days.
This applies to goods classified under UKT VED codes 8424, 8428, 8432, and 8716.
The NBU specifies that the decision was made following consultations with the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture and taking into account the government’s proposals (Cabinet of Ministers Order No. 573-r of June 21, 2024).
The changes were approved by NBU Board Resolution No. 18 dated February 26, 2026, which comes into force on February 28, 2026.
The Ministry of Economy believes that extending the deadline “from 180 to 270 calendar days” will help exporters avoid the risks of reduced supplies due to long production cycles and the specifics of fulfilling foreign economic contracts, as well as support the continuity of contracts and the inflow of foreign currency earnings.
AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY, EXPORTS, foreign currency earnings, NBU, REGULATION
