The total forecast for wheat production in Ukraine for the 2025-2026 marketing year (July-June) is about 21 million tons, of which 10.3 million tons will be food wheat, while the harvest of grade 1-2 grain, which is needed to produce bread-making flour, is forecast at 1.7 million tons, according to Rodion Rybchinsky, chairman of the Ukrainian Millers’ Union.
“We are already seeing growing competition between processors and exporters for high-quality wheat, while farmers, who have the opportunity to store grain for several years, are in no hurry to sell it. This creates risks for price stability and the availability of flour and bakery products for consumers,“ the association’s press service quoted him as saying at the ”Khleb.ua” conference on its Facebook page.
Rybchynsky drew attention to the situation with rye. Domestic production of this crop in Ukraine does not fully cover domestic demand. In 2025/26 MY, flour millers will have to import about 9,000 tons, while in the previous season this figure was 1,600 tons. The expert emphasized that such an increase in imports indicates the formation of a persistent shortage of raw materials.
“The current production structure and behavior of farmers may lead to further increases in flour prices. While the shortage of first- and second-class raw materials already determines the industry’s prospects, the issue of food grain availability poses risks to the country’s food security,” stressed the head of the Ukrainian Millers Association.
Ukrainian producers exported 66,700 tons of wheat flour during the 2024-2025 marketing year (July-June), which is 27.9% less than in the previous season, when this figure was 92,500 tons, according to the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association.
The industry association noted that about 46% of exports in the 2024/2025 season went to EU countries. The top five importers of Ukrainian flour were Moldova (20,300 tons), the Czech Republic (15,300 tons), Palestine (10,800 tons), France (3,000 tons), and Spain (2,900 tons).
Exports of other types of flour in the 2024/2025 season amounted to 4.6 thousand tons (in 2023/24 MY – 5.4 thousand tons). The share of EU countries in terms of export volumes was 14% (27% in 2023/2024 MY). The five countries to which other types of flour were supplied in 2024/25 MY were Moldova (3.2 thousand tons), Israel (0.5 thousand tons), Croatia (0.2 thousand tons), Bulgaria, and Spain (0.1 thousand tons each).
CZECH REPUBLIC, FLOUR, FRANCE, IMPORTER, MOLDOVA, PALESTINE, SPAIN
As of July 1, 2024-2025 marketing year (July-June), Ukraine exported 40.499 mln tonnes of grains and pulses, of which 2.217 mln tonnes were shipped in June, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported, citing data from the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of June 28 last year, the total shipments were estimated at 50.553 million tons, including 3.621 million tons in June.
According to the preliminary estimates, in 2024/25 season, Ukraine exported 15.704 mln tonnes of wheat (18.3 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY), 2.318 mln tonnes of barley (2.477 mln tonnes), 10.8 thsd tonnes of rye (1.6 thsd tonnes), and 21.788 mln tonnes of corn (29.233 mln tonnes).
The total exports of Ukrainian flour in 2024/25 MY are estimated at 70.4 thsd tonnes (in 2023/24 MY – 97.8 thsd tonnes), including 65.8 thsd tonnes of wheat (92.4 thsd tonnes).
Thus, in the season-2024/25, the grain exports were down by 19.9% in general, by 14.2% for wheat, by 6.4% for barley, by 25.5% for corn, by 28.1% for flour, including 28.8% for wheat. At the same time, in 2024/25 MY Ukraine increased rye exports by 6.8 times.
As reported, in the season-24/25, the domestic market faced the deficit of rye. Flour mills and bakeries started importing it in winter 2025. The main countries supplying rye and rye flour to Ukraine are the Baltic states and Poland. Industry associations predict that in 2025/26 MY Ukraine will face a 100% deficit of rye due to the further reduction of the production area under this crop. According to experts, this will lead to a 20% rise in bread prices.
Flour and cereal producers are concerned about a reduction in flour exports to the European Union after the expiry of autonomous trade measures on June 6, as 75% of their exports currently go to the EU, Rodion Rybchinsky, director of the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association, said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
“Starting from June 6, we have the opportunity to supply a total of 583,300 tons of wheat and wheat flour to the EU market by the end of the year. But since the quota is combined, I am not sure that we will be able to fill it. It is much easier for wheat exporters to find buyers in the EU and fill their quota,” he said.
Rybchynsky added that the industry association continues to use all possible communication channels to convey to European officials the need to allocate a separate quota for Ukrainian flour for export to the EU or to remove it altogether.
The head of the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association stated that before the war, there were 678 enterprises specializing in grain processing in Ukraine, but in 2022, 192 enterprises were destroyed and remained in the occupied territories. As of the end of 2024, 88 enterprises have been restored.
At the same time, according to his information, exports of flour and cereals have fallen by 50% since the start of the war. Among the reasons, the expert cited a reduction in production and changes in logistics: whereas exports used to be mainly by sea, since the start of the war they have been forced to switch to road and rail transport, which are more expensive than sea transport.
Due to problems with transporting products across the Black Sea, container shipping has not yet been fully restored. As a result, the geography of grain processing product sales has changed significantly since the beginning of the war: 75% of products are exported to the European market, of which 55% go to EU countries, 15% to the Middle East, 4% to Africa, and 2% to Asia, according to the head of the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association.
As reported, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky said in comments to journalists that one of the government’s strategies in negotiations with the European Commission will be to request that the established quotas be divided by commodity codes.
The European Commission has approved quotas for Ukrainian agricultural products, which will be in effect from June 6 until the end of 2025 as part of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreement. According to a document published on the EU website, by the end of 2025, Ukraine will be able to supply the EU market under the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area in a 7/12 month mode (7/12) with wheat, flour, and meslin – 583,330 tons , corn – 379,167 thousand tons, barley – 204,167 thousand tons, poultry meat – 52,511 thousand tons, beef – 7 thousand tons, eggs – 3,500 tons, milk and cream – 5,833 tons, dry milk – 2,917 tons, butter – 1,750 tons.
Ukraine has supplied an additional 3,850 tons of wheat flour to Syria as part of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s humanitarian program Grain From Ukraine, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga said.
“Together with 500 tons in December, this will provide 60 thousand Syrians for six months,” he wrote on social networking site X.
Sybiga assured that Ukraine continues to support the Syrian people and food security in the Middle East.
As of the end of February of the 2023/2024 marketing year, which started on July 1, Ukraine has already exported more than 29.1 million tons of grain, legumes and flour, Danylo Hetmantsev, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Taxation and Customs Policy, said on Telegram.
He clarified that in terms of major crops, 15.8 million tons of corn, 11.5 million tons of wheat, and 1.6 million tons of barley were supplied to foreign markets.
“Compared to the same date last year, there is a lag of almost 2.6 million tons (although, for example, wheat was shipped a quarter of a million tons more than last year),” the head of the parliamentary financial committee said.
Mr. Hetmantsev explained the slowdown in grain exports by the fact that for a month and a half, in July and the first half of August last year, when sea exports were forced to pause due to Russia’s withdrawal from the Istanbul grain initiative, Ukraine had to develop an “alternative grain corridor.” In August 2023, thanks to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, it became available, and in the first months, foreign shipowners were restrained and cautious, looking closely at whether the new route was really safe, he recalled.
“In November 2023, some ‘friends and neighbors’ began to create obstacles for us on the land border under artificial and far-fetched pretexts, and these processes are still ongoing,” Hetmantsev wrote.
The chairman of the parliamentary committee expressed confidence that Ukraine would soon completely close the current gap.
He emphasized that in recent months, Ukraine has returned to almost pre-war export volumes, 90% of Ukrainian grain is shipped to foreign customers by sea, and dependence on the land corridor on the western border is decreasing.
“Thus, Ukraine will continue to play the role of one of the guarantors of global food security, while at the same time replenishing the treasury with serious foreign exchange earnings (in the near future, agricultural products will remain a key item of Ukrainian exports),” Hetmantsev summarized.
