The grain harvest in Ukraine this year is expected to be about 46 million tons, which is 5-7% less than last year, said First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky.
“As of today, there is a weighted average forecast: it is expected that the grain will be harvested about 46 million tons. This, unfortunately, is less than last year. The decrease is about 5-7%,” he said on national telethon Monday.
At the same time, Vysotsky noted that domestic consumption of grain is 18 million tons.
“Therefore, even collecting 46 million tons, it is still 2.5 times more than the domestic need, respectively, there is no risk for shortage of grain for domestic purposes today,” – said the first deputy minister.
As previously reported, in mid-March, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy predicted a reduction in the total gross yield of grain and leguminous crops in the season of 2023 to 44.3 million tons against 53.1 million tons in the previous season.
The total gross harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2023 is expected to be 68 million tons, 8.5% less than in 2022, when it was 73.8 million tons, and 36% less than in 2021 (106 million tons), this forecast was released by the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA).
“The significantly lower volume of the future harvest is due to both the occupation of part of the territory of Ukraine, mines, hostilities, and the lack of funds and other resources for farmers to conduct a full sowing campaign and grow crops,” UZA said in a statement.
According to its estimate, the total area sown in Ukraine will be 28.2% less than in previous years – about 19.5 million hectares. “Of course, much depends on how the sowing season will end and on further weather conditions,” the association said.
According to its analysts, exports from Ukraine in the new season 2023/2024 could amount to 43.9 million tons. In the current season (which ends June 30, 2022), exports could reach 56.4 million tons, preserving the marine export route. At the same time, transitional balances at the beginning of the new season could be about 11.9 million tons of grains and oilseeds, which is three times more than in previous seasons, except in 2022/2023 MY, when balances were the maximum (about 25 million tons).
“A characteristic feature of this year will be a drop in the volume of grain crops due to a decrease in the area sown under them compared to last year and a simultaneous increase in the forecast of oilseed crops due to an increase in the area sown under them,” the UZA stressed.
According to grain market analysts, the harvest of wheat in Ukraine in 2023 could reach only 17.9 million tons (in 2022 – 20.2 million tons, and in 2021 – a record 33 million tons), with a reduction in acreage under wheat by more than 2 million hectares.
“Even this harvest is enough to meet domestic demand and food security of the country (especially when about 7 million Ukrainians have left the country), but will reduce the export potential for food security in the world,” the association explained.
According to its data, the export of wheat in 2023/2024 MY, given the smaller harvest, could be about 15 million tons, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season transitional residues will amount to 5.3 million tons.
UZA also forecast a barley crop of 4.4 million tons in 2023 (10.1 million tons in 2021 and 5.8 million tons in 2022) and expects to export this crop in 2023/2024 MY at 2 million tons.
Corn harvest in the new season in the UZA expects at 23.3 million tons, linking this figure with the reduction of cultivation areas on 800 thousand hectares (in 2021 – 37.6 million tons, in 2022 – 27.3 million tons). According to experts of the Association, the export of this crop may be about 19 million tons, taking into account the transition stocks at the beginning of the new season at the level of 2.3 million tons.
Analysts at UZA forecast the sunflower harvest in 2023 at 12.7 million tons, due to the increase of cultivated areas under it also by 800 thousand hectares (in 2022 – 11.1 million tons, in 2021 – 16.9 million tons). UZA expects sunflower seed export at 1.2 million tons, and sunflower oil production may reach 11.5 million tons.
UZA’s preliminary forecast for rapeseed harvest in 2023 is 3.8 million tons, with exports in 2023/2024 MY at 3.5 million tons. The soybean crop is at nearly 4.4 million tons and exports 2023/2024 MY will be 3 million tons.
According to analysts, the forecast voiced exports of grains and oilseeds in 2023/2024 MY will be valid if the work of the Ukrainian Black Sea ports. “The world has already seen that export of grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to the countries that badly need it,” the business association stressed.
UZA stressed that the reduction of crops and exports from Ukraine will have a negative impact on the availability of grain on the world market and will lead to higher prices and, consequently, to an increase in food inflation in the world.
According to the forecast of Ministry of Agrarian Policy, announced in late March, the area of cereals and leguminous crops in 2023 will be 10.24 million hectares, which is 1.4 million fewer than in 2022, while the area under oilseeds will grow by 0.92 million hectares – to 8.85 million hectares. In particular, winter wheat will be 4166 thousand hectares (-834 thousand hectares against the previous year), spring wheat – 285 thousand hectares (+67 thousand hectares), winter barley – 536 thousand hectares (-255 thousand hectares).
Ukraine expects 45 million tons of grain and leguminous crops in 2023, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said.
“Ukraine is having its second sowing campaign under martial law. We are helping our agrarians to carry it out successfully again. According to preliminary estimates, we expect 45 million tons of grain and leguminous crops. The wheat harvest is expected to be 16.6 million tons,” he said at a government meeting on Friday.
According to the prime minister, with such a harvest, the domestic consumption of Ukrainians is about 5 million tons.
“That is, like last year, Ukraine will be fully provided with grain and food,” Shmygal stressed.
Grain harvest in Ukraine in 2023, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, will be about 49.5 million tons, which is better than the estimate of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) of 46 million tons, First Deputy Minister Denis Kudin told Interfax-Ukraine
“Ukraine will definitely have enough food, the problem with the rest of the world: we have become a weighty player on the world stage, so if the logistics of agricultural products from Ukraine is important to us because it is the inflow of foreign exchange earnings, it is important to the world because it is food security for it,” he said on the sidelines of the business forum on the rapid recovery of Ukraine in Luxembourg, organized by the Ukrainian-Luxembourg Business Club.
The First Deputy Minister noted that in the current situation the Ministry of Economy sees no need to resort to any bans or quotas on the export of agricultural products, but at the same time will maintain the licensing of its individual types.
“Through licensing we receive information on the exported volume, and if we see that the balance does not add up, that our domestic consumption is at risk of being unsustainable, then we reserve the right to limit the export,” he explained.
In general, as Kudin pointed out, the balance of payments forecast of the Ministry of Economy for 2023 is much more positive than that of the NBU.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukrainian farmers harvested 52.6 million tons of grain and leguminous crops by January 27, 2023. During the week, the total area of harvested crops increased by 1 percentage point (p.p.) – up to 96% of previously planned areas, including corn which had to be harvested from 10% of areas (+3 p.p. during the week). By January 27, a total of 25.2 million tons of corn had been harvested.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that the grain harvest in 2023 will decrease by 15% compared to 2022 and will amount to 46 million tons, said deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Serhiy Mykolaychuk.
“For this year, we assume that the grain harvest will be about 46 million tons and this is about 15% less than last year. For other crops, the situation is better. Somewhere even more than last year we allow for the harvest, somewhere less,” he said during a press briefing on Thursday.
Nikolaychuk noted that the harvest is one of the factors that the NBU took into account when revising the GDP forecast and when forecasting the trade balance and current account deficit.
In Ukraine the corn harvest of 2022 remains unharvested from 15% of the area, so because of the wintering of part of the crop in the fields its quality will be much worse than in a more favorable 2021.
The head of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Foodstuffs of Ukraine Mykola Solsky said at a briefing in Kiev on Monday that the final quality of corn harvested in 2022 will be judged in February, after the end of its harvesting.
“Day by day its (unharvested corn – IF-U) quality worsens. Of course, farmers, elevator operators and traders know how to work with it and level out the quality indicators. However, compared with last year (2021 – IF-U) the quality will be much worse. We will be able to say exactly how much worse at the end of February, because significant amounts of corn remain in the fields,” the minister said.
Solsky recalled that by the beginning of last year’s winter corn was not harvested from one-third of the area, while now this figure is about half as much, but it is still too much.
“We have a much worse crop this year because for a number of reasons we have entered a prolonged harvest, which in itself is quite difficult: severe temperature fluctuations prevent farmers from working and damage the quality of grain. I think the percentage of losses, depending on the farmer, can be from a few percent to 15%. It depends on the type of corn, moisture content, with which he “came in” at the beginning of the frost, the current temperature drop,” – the Minister explained.
Earlier Minagropolitiki reported that by January 13, Ukraine harvested a total of 23.5 million tons of corn from 3.6 million hectares, including 1.4 million tons of corn from 0.2 million hectares during the week of January 6-13. 15% of the planned areas are not harvested.
As reported, Ukraine in 2021 harvested a record crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds at 106 million tons: 84 million tons of cereals and legumes (including 40 million tons of corn), and 22.6 million tons of oilseeds.
