Harvest of seeds of the main types of oilseeds in Ukraine in 2023/24 MY will grow to 19.5 million tons, which is 7.7% higher than in the previous season, predicted the association “Ukroliaprom”.
The industry association recalled that by exporting sunflower seeds from Ukraine sufficient to meet the needs of the EU and other countries in volumes, the country loses the market for sunflower oil and meal in these countries.
“The mass export of oilseeds from Ukraine to the world market has led to a sharp drop in prices, which has caused discontent among farmers in European countries. As a consequence, the mass export of sunflower seeds from Ukraine has led on the part of some EU countries to a ban on imports into their territory until mid-September 2023, and possibly until 2024”, – noted in “Ukroliaprom”.
The association expressed confidence that this would not have happened if the repeated requests of Ukroliaprom to limit sunflower seed exports, particularly to EU countries, by introducing additional fees and licensing had been taken into account.
Ukroliaprom expects soybean exports from Ukraine to exceed 3.0 million tons at the end of MY 2022/23, or more than triple against MY 2021/22.
“This may negatively affect domestic processing, which even under martial law remained not only stable, but also increased,” experts emphasized.
The industry association expects the highest production growth in MY 2023/24 for soybeans – by 12.2% to 4.107 million tons. This will happen thanks to a 20.5% increase in sown areas, which reached 1.84 million hectares, but the yield of the oilseed crop will increase by only 0.4% to 22.3 c/ha.
Sunflower production this season will increase by 6.5% year-on-year to 11.813 million tons. Despite the expansion of areas under the crop by 7.7% to 5.64 million hectares, analysts expect yields to be 3.3% lower than last year’s -20.9 c/ha.
Ukrpoliyaprom expects a 9.1% increase in the gross rapeseed harvest, which will amount to 3.318 million tons. It will be harvested from almost 1.35 million hectares (+16.3%) at a yield of 26.5 c/ha (-9.3%).
“At the same time, we should take into account significantly lower carryover residues of oilseeds in Ukraine at the beginning of MY 2023/24 against the beginning of the previous season. Accordingly, the supply in 2023/24 MY will be less, which requires urgent action at the government level to create conditions for maximum domestic processing and increase exports of products with high added value,” – summarized in the industry association.
The low average yield of rapeseed of 1.2-1.3 tons/ha will not allow Ukrainian agrarians to get a high gross of oilseed crop, the yields may level out in the future, but there will not be a record harvest, said the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, created within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Rada (AAR).
“Rapeseed prices have started to rise sharply, and this trend will continue both in Ukraine and around the world,” the analysts said at a weekly briefing Tuesday.
According to their information, in small river ports the indicative rapeseed prices for a week increased from 330 euro/ton to 345 euro/ton. Supply of Ukrainian rapeseed was low last week. The situation will not change quickly, as the harvest has recently started.
Analysts expect indicative prices in small ports to grow to € 348 / ton by the end of the week, on the terms of CPT – up to € 355-360 / ton in the coming weeks.
Processors sounded purchase prices for rapeseed in a wide range, depending on the region – 12300-13200 hryvnia / ton, the lowest mark in the Odessa region, stated the “Pusk”.
The world prices for biodiesel are rising again, vegetable oils are becoming more expensive, so rapeseed will rise in price at the exchanges. But July and early August will be unfavorable for sales under the pressure of the new harvest, analysts summarized.
The grain harvest in Ukraine this year is expected to be about 46 million tons, which is 5-7% less than last year, said First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky.
“As of today, there is a weighted average forecast: it is expected that the grain will be harvested about 46 million tons. This, unfortunately, is less than last year. The decrease is about 5-7%,” he said on national telethon Monday.
At the same time, Vysotsky noted that domestic consumption of grain is 18 million tons.
“Therefore, even collecting 46 million tons, it is still 2.5 times more than the domestic need, respectively, there is no risk for shortage of grain for domestic purposes today,” – said the first deputy minister.
As previously reported, in mid-March, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy predicted a reduction in the total gross yield of grain and leguminous crops in the season of 2023 to 44.3 million tons against 53.1 million tons in the previous season.
The total gross harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2023 is expected to be 68 million tons, 8.5% less than in 2022, when it was 73.8 million tons, and 36% less than in 2021 (106 million tons), this forecast was released by the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA).
“The significantly lower volume of the future harvest is due to both the occupation of part of the territory of Ukraine, mines, hostilities, and the lack of funds and other resources for farmers to conduct a full sowing campaign and grow crops,” UZA said in a statement.
According to its estimate, the total area sown in Ukraine will be 28.2% less than in previous years – about 19.5 million hectares. “Of course, much depends on how the sowing season will end and on further weather conditions,” the association said.
According to its analysts, exports from Ukraine in the new season 2023/2024 could amount to 43.9 million tons. In the current season (which ends June 30, 2022), exports could reach 56.4 million tons, preserving the marine export route. At the same time, transitional balances at the beginning of the new season could be about 11.9 million tons of grains and oilseeds, which is three times more than in previous seasons, except in 2022/2023 MY, when balances were the maximum (about 25 million tons).
“A characteristic feature of this year will be a drop in the volume of grain crops due to a decrease in the area sown under them compared to last year and a simultaneous increase in the forecast of oilseed crops due to an increase in the area sown under them,” the UZA stressed.
According to grain market analysts, the harvest of wheat in Ukraine in 2023 could reach only 17.9 million tons (in 2022 – 20.2 million tons, and in 2021 – a record 33 million tons), with a reduction in acreage under wheat by more than 2 million hectares.
“Even this harvest is enough to meet domestic demand and food security of the country (especially when about 7 million Ukrainians have left the country), but will reduce the export potential for food security in the world,” the association explained.
According to its data, the export of wheat in 2023/2024 MY, given the smaller harvest, could be about 15 million tons, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season transitional residues will amount to 5.3 million tons.
UZA also forecast a barley crop of 4.4 million tons in 2023 (10.1 million tons in 2021 and 5.8 million tons in 2022) and expects to export this crop in 2023/2024 MY at 2 million tons.
Corn harvest in the new season in the UZA expects at 23.3 million tons, linking this figure with the reduction of cultivation areas on 800 thousand hectares (in 2021 – 37.6 million tons, in 2022 – 27.3 million tons). According to experts of the Association, the export of this crop may be about 19 million tons, taking into account the transition stocks at the beginning of the new season at the level of 2.3 million tons.
Analysts at UZA forecast the sunflower harvest in 2023 at 12.7 million tons, due to the increase of cultivated areas under it also by 800 thousand hectares (in 2022 – 11.1 million tons, in 2021 – 16.9 million tons). UZA expects sunflower seed export at 1.2 million tons, and sunflower oil production may reach 11.5 million tons.
UZA’s preliminary forecast for rapeseed harvest in 2023 is 3.8 million tons, with exports in 2023/2024 MY at 3.5 million tons. The soybean crop is at nearly 4.4 million tons and exports 2023/2024 MY will be 3 million tons.
According to analysts, the forecast voiced exports of grains and oilseeds in 2023/2024 MY will be valid if the work of the Ukrainian Black Sea ports. “The world has already seen that export of grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to the countries that badly need it,” the business association stressed.
UZA stressed that the reduction of crops and exports from Ukraine will have a negative impact on the availability of grain on the world market and will lead to higher prices and, consequently, to an increase in food inflation in the world.
According to the forecast of Ministry of Agrarian Policy, announced in late March, the area of cereals and leguminous crops in 2023 will be 10.24 million hectares, which is 1.4 million fewer than in 2022, while the area under oilseeds will grow by 0.92 million hectares – to 8.85 million hectares. In particular, winter wheat will be 4166 thousand hectares (-834 thousand hectares against the previous year), spring wheat – 285 thousand hectares (+67 thousand hectares), winter barley – 536 thousand hectares (-255 thousand hectares).
Ukraine expects 45 million tons of grain and leguminous crops in 2023, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said.
“Ukraine is having its second sowing campaign under martial law. We are helping our agrarians to carry it out successfully again. According to preliminary estimates, we expect 45 million tons of grain and leguminous crops. The wheat harvest is expected to be 16.6 million tons,” he said at a government meeting on Friday.
According to the prime minister, with such a harvest, the domestic consumption of Ukrainians is about 5 million tons.
“That is, like last year, Ukraine will be fully provided with grain and food,” Shmygal stressed.
Grain harvest in Ukraine in 2023, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, will be about 49.5 million tons, which is better than the estimate of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) of 46 million tons, First Deputy Minister Denis Kudin told Interfax-Ukraine
“Ukraine will definitely have enough food, the problem with the rest of the world: we have become a weighty player on the world stage, so if the logistics of agricultural products from Ukraine is important to us because it is the inflow of foreign exchange earnings, it is important to the world because it is food security for it,” he said on the sidelines of the business forum on the rapid recovery of Ukraine in Luxembourg, organized by the Ukrainian-Luxembourg Business Club.
The First Deputy Minister noted that in the current situation the Ministry of Economy sees no need to resort to any bans or quotas on the export of agricultural products, but at the same time will maintain the licensing of its individual types.
“Through licensing we receive information on the exported volume, and if we see that the balance does not add up, that our domestic consumption is at risk of being unsustainable, then we reserve the right to limit the export,” he explained.
In general, as Kudin pointed out, the balance of payments forecast of the Ministry of Economy for 2023 is much more positive than that of the NBU.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukrainian farmers harvested 52.6 million tons of grain and leguminous crops by January 27, 2023. During the week, the total area of harvested crops increased by 1 percentage point (p.p.) – up to 96% of previously planned areas, including corn which had to be harvested from 10% of areas (+3 p.p. during the week). By January 27, a total of 25.2 million tons of corn had been harvested.
