Overall, Ukrainian agricultural exports have currently fallen by 50–60% of their potential volume due to significant complications and rising logistics costs, while one of Ukraine’s largest agricultural exporters—Nibulon Joint Venture LLC—has managed to limit the current monthly decline to 25–30%, according to Volodymyr Slavinsky, trade director at the agricultural company Nibulon.
“As for our company, our monthly export volumes are currently declining—let’s put it this way—by approximately 25–30% compared to last year or to the levels seen before June, which we consider a decent result and see potential for growth. But overall, across the industry, the rate of decline is reaching 50–60% of what it should be today,” he noted during a panel discussion on the agricultural sector at the fourth annual “Economic Truth” export forum in Kyiv on Wednesday.
According to an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent, based on Nibulon’s estimates, due to the slowdown, Ukraine is currently exporting only about 2 million metric tons of agricultural products per month, despite a potential of 5–6 million metric tons under normal economic conditions, which significantly undermines the financial stability of agricultural producers and their ability to sustain operations and the planting season.
Slavinsky emphasized that logistics via the Danube and alternative overland routes have become significantly more complicated and expensive in recent years. In particular, since farmers in the central regions are unable to independently organize complex logistics to European ports or rail stations, logistical functions have fallen entirely on large companies and traders.
“To maintain a stable pace of shipments and daily deliveries, the company currently spends nearly 20% or more of its working capital on logistics. The cost of shipping by sea has increased fivefold—to $100 instead of $20—and delivery times have risen from 7 to 30 days. This means that there are far more goods in transit, and the costs associated with goods in transit are significantly higher,” he said.
To address these issues, “Nibulon” is initiating the creation of a mechanism for state and international financial guarantees that would allow Ukrainian businesses to obtain prompt financing from Western banks at reasonable interest rates.
Among other critical issues in Danube and maritime logistics, the Nibulon representative cited a labor shortage and the lack of practical opportunities for Ukrainian seafarers to obtain the required “Danube certificates,” which makes it more profitable for Ukrainian companies to change their fleet’s flag than to operate under the Ukrainian flag. In addition, the expansion of land-based exports via rail and road is hampered by significant tariff increases and restrictions imposed by neighboring EU countries.
At the same time, the company noted that Ukrainian agricultural producers have already demonstrated their ability to adapt quickly to extremely challenging conditions; however, the sector’s future trajectory will depend on the availability of financial capital and systematic support from the government and international partners.
As previously reported, due to operational restrictions at Black Sea ports, nearly half of Ukraine’s agricultural exports (approximately 32 million metric tons of produce with an estimated value of about $10 billion) are at risk. In October 2026, Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky discussed with Fatma Jeren Yazgan, the Turkish Ambassador to Ukraine, the possibility of Ankara’s assistance in restoring safe and stable shipping in the Black Sea, noting that alternative routes (the Danube, rail, and road transport) are unable to fully replace maritime exports, and prolonged restrictions will lead to a reduction in planted areas.
In addition, according to the consulting firm Spike Brokers, in September 2026, grain shipments by rail to Ukrainian ports fell by 38.6% compared to August—to 177,600 metric tons. Specifically, grain shipments to the ports of Greater Odesa fell by 46.5% (to 35,000 metric tons), and to the export port of
Izmail—by 42.3% (to 42,600 metric tons). In total, Ukraine exported 3.035 million metric tons of agricultural products (UKT ZVD groups 01–24) in September, worth $1.563 billion, of which 1.481 million metric tons were grains (wheat, corn, barley). At the same time, the share of land crossings continues to grow—in September, 664,500 metric tons were shipped via these routes, or about 85% of all rail grain exports.
The main pressure on logistics costs comes from rising rental rates: since the summer, they have increased two to three times, said Tetyana Lys, a logistics expert at the international postal and logistics company Meest China, in a comment to the “Interfax-Ukraine” news agency.
“The cost of warehouse rentals has risen the most since the summer of 2026—in some places, threefold. For our own needs, we monitor prices for warehouse space in the Kyiv region and in western Ukraine. Just a few years ago, a warehouse could be rented for $3 per square meter; later, rates rose to $4–5. Today, some offers in the Kyiv region reach $12 per square meter. After the region’s warehouse infrastructure was hit, there is significantly less available high-quality space, and property owners are dictating their terms,” Lys said.
She added that the company continues to restructure its logistics routes and is relocating warehouses from the Kyiv region to western Ukraine.
“However, the situation there is also challenging: space is in high demand, so prices have risen there as well. Back in August, the cost of Category B–C warehouse space reached as high as $5 per square meter in some locations. Now prices have risen to $7 and above,” she said.
At the same time, according to the expert, the cost of transportation itself has not changed significantly since the summer. It largely depends on fuel prices and the exchange rate, and there have been no significant fluctuations in these two indicators. Therefore, warehouses—rather than transportation—are currently the main factor driving up logistics costs.
Lys noted that the fall is traditionally the peak season in logistics, accompanied by an increase in order volume of approximately 7–10% compared to the summer and a corresponding rise in operational workload. The year 2026 was no exception.
“Our key task is to ensure the processing of a larger volume of orders without a proportional increase in operating costs, by boosting team productivity, maintaining service quality, and improving business margins,” she said, outlining the company’s priorities in this situation.
Meest China is part of the Meest holding company, has been operating in the international postal and logistics services market since 2014, and is currently the leader in deliveries from China to Ukraine. The company specializes in delivering goods as duty-free postal shipments for personal use, as well as commercial cargo for business clients. It has offices and warehouses in China and Ukraine. Currently, the company delivers shipments from China to approximately 30 countries worldwide, from South Korea and Japan to Ukraine, and also provides freight services for worldwide delivery.
If the Cabinet of Ministers gives priority in rail transport to oil and fuel, then metal products should be given the same priority, said Oleksandr Kalenkov, president of the Ukrmetallurgprom Public Organization, in a post on the organization’s website.
According to him, the government is drafting a resolution that will give priority on railways, in ports, and at the border to two types of cargo: fuel and vegetable oil.
“There are no issues with fuel. Without it, businesses cannot operate, and the country will not survive the winter. But the fact that vegetable oil ended up second on the list—and metallurgy isn’t even on it—surprised me, to be honest,” Kalenkov wrote.
He added that the draft’s authors explain their choice by citing high added value and foreign exchange earnings. “I agree with that. But based on precisely these criteria, the metallurgical industry should have been among the first on the list. In 2025, our industry accounted for about 5.5% of GDP, 150 billion hryvnias in taxes, and $6 billion in foreign exchange earnings,” stated the head of “Ukrmetallurgprom.”
Kalenkov emphasized that today, steelworkers are operating under constant shelling and are on the brink of survival. Since July, seaports have been effectively closed. Now, the railway crossings on the western border and the Danube are our only route to customers. The cost of transporting raw materials has risen from $30 to $68 per metric ton of product.
“Europe needs Ukrainian steel. Our main advantage over Asian competitors lies in speed: we deliver in days or weeks, not months. Therefore, every day spent waiting in line at the border translates into lost revenue for the state. On behalf of the industry, we have officially appealed to the Prime Minister to include metal products in this pilot program under the same conditions as fuel and oil. If the state sets priorities based on added value and foreign exchange, the steel industry must be on that list,” concluded the president of the “Ukrmetallurgprom” Association.
According to the Serbian business media outlet Parametar, a serious train accident occurred in Croatia on October 10 on the approach to the Meja station near Rijeka. Freight train No. 82318, operated by Transagent and carrying a grain cargo toward Rijeka, derailed.
According to official data from HŽ Infrastruktura, the accident occurred around 9:25 a.m. on the incoming track at Meja Station. Eleven cars derailed and ended up in a deep ravine. The locomotive and two other cars remained at the station. There were no injuries, but significant property damage was caused to the railway infrastructure, and the Plase–Meja section is closed to traffic.
The Croatian Agency for the Investigation of Incidents in Air, Maritime, and Rail Transport (AIN) has launched an investigation into the circumstances of the accident. The agency confirmed that a report of a serious incident was received on October 10 at approximately 9:25 a.m. and concerned the derailment of several cars of train No. 82318 on line M202.
According to the Croatian publication Novi list, 11 cars were loaded with grain, presumably of Ukrainian origin. However, an official statement from HŽ Infrastruktura confirms only the transport of grain and does not specify the country of origin of the cargo.
A preliminary theory under consideration is that the locomotive’s brakes failed.
The train belonged to the carrier Transagent Rail, part of the Transagent logistics group based in Rijeka. The company specializes in rail and multimodal freight transportation in Central and Southeastern Europe.
The investigation into this accident is ongoing. The exact causes of the derailment are to be determined by AIN experts.
Source: HŽ Infrastruktura, Croatian Agency for the Investigation of Accidents in Air, Maritime, and Rail Transport (AIN), Novi list.
In January–September 2026, Poland increased its diesel fuel shipments to Ukraine by 44% compared to the same period last year—to over 2 million metric tons, according to data from the A-95 Consulting Group and its analysis by the Experts Club think tank.
In September, 202,600 metric tons of diesel fuel were supplied from Poland, which is virtually the same as the September 2025 level of 202,000 metric tons.
Romania remained the second-largest supplier in September, with 156,700 metric tons, compared to 158,600 metric tons a year earlier. Supplies from Lithuania increased by 7% to 65.9 thousand metric tons.
At the same time, imports from Southern Europe fell significantly. Supplies from Greece dropped by 70% to 40.8 thousand metric tons, and from Turkey by 88% to 6.1 thousand metric tons.
Overall, the volume of imports from southern Europe in September fell by 38%—to 220,000 metric tons—and its share of total imports decreased from 52% to 41%.
“Due to the war in Iran, southern European supplies are significantly more expensive this year than northern ones, and this is the main reason for the decline in volumes,” notes “A-95”.
Over the first nine months, diesel fuel imports from Lithuania rose by 33%—to over 560,000 metric tons. At the same time, shipments from Hungary fell by 49%—to 266,000 metric tons.
According to Serhiy Kuyun, director of the “A-95” Consulting Group, this shift in the geography of supplies indicates the Ukrainian fuel market’s continued adaptation to changes in price conditions and logistical risks.
The “A-95” Consulting Group conducts research on the motor fuel market, monitors prices and logistics, and analyzes the supply of resources to the Ukrainian market.
The “Velmart” discount hypermarket chain has restructured its supply chains and increased the share of direct shipments from manufacturers to stores to 53%, its press service reported.
“As of September, deliveries to the chain cover more than 11,000 SKUs, supplied by over 570 partner suppliers. In September, the share of direct deliveries from manufacturers in the total value of goods received rose to about 53%, while in August this figure stood at 12%,” the chain’s press release states.
According to the report, local producers supply goods to their own regions without shipping them to a distribution center. This approach reduces the burden on interregional transportation routes and allows for faster delivery of goods to stores.
In addition, “Velmart” prioritizes the supply of everyday consumer goods: dairy products, deli items, meat, baked goods, groceries, vegetables, fruits, sugar, salt, and flour. If Ukrainian-produced goods are out of stock, the chain seeks alternatives manufactured in Poland or Romania.
The “Velmart” chain is part of the multi-brand holding company Retail Group. It has 34 stores in 18 cities across Ukraine. It develops 10 private-label brands and operates seven full-cycle production facilities: meat and fish products (chilled and smoked), prepared foods, baked goods, and confectionery.
The company is also expanding the Graan Café chain of modern food courts within “Velmart” supermarkets and its “Pukhnastye Sprawy” line of pet products.
According to data from the YouControl analytics system, based on 2025 results, Foodcom LLC, which operates the “Velmart” chain, increased its net revenue by 18.7% to 23.6 billion UAH and its net profit by a factor of 3.2 to 378.6 million UAH.
Retail Group JSC is listed as the owner of Foodcom LLC, with Roman Lunin as the ultimate beneficiary.
