Business news from Ukraine

Business news from Ukraine

Gold Prices Fall to Lowest Level Since August 6 Amid Strengthening Dollar

On Wednesday, gold prices are falling amid a spike in oil prices, which has heightened concerns about accelerating inflation and tighter monetary policy in the U.S.

December gold futures on the Comex fell 0.9% to $4,356.60 per ounce, the lowest level since August 6.

“Geopolitical uncertainty is pushing up oil prices, heightening inflation risks and increasing pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates, which is strengthening the dollar and exacerbating factors unfavorable to gold,” said Nikos Tsabouras of Tradu.com (owned by Jefferies).

Traders are increasingly anticipating tighter monetary policy from the U.S. central bank. Based on interest rate futures, the market currently estimates a 68% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September, according to CME FedWatch.

The ICE DXY index, which tracks the dollar’s performance against six currencies (the euro, Swiss franc, yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona), is up 0.2% and is at a two-week high. The strengthening dollar is weighing on demand for precious metals from holders of other currencies.

The price of silver is down 1.7% to $64.24 per ounce, while platinum is down 2.5% to $1,721.6 per ounce.

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U.S. has once again extended license for Croatian company JANAF to supply oil to Serbia

According to The Serbian Economist, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury has extended a special license to the Croatian company JANAF, allowing it to continue transporting crude oil for the Serbian company NIS until September 30, 2026.

The company reported that it received the license extension with the assistance of the Croatian government and U.S. legal advisors. The authorization allows it to continue fulfilling its existing contract with NIS within the framework of the U.S. sanctions regime.

Thus, crude oil deliveries via the Adriatic Pipeline can continue for at least another month. The oil arrives by sea at the JANAF terminal in Omišalj on the island of Krk, after which it is transported via the pipeline system toward Serbia and used by the NIS refinery in Pančevo.

This decision is of critical importance for Serbia. The refinery in Pančevo is the country’s only large oil refinery and meets about 80% of the Serbian market’s demand for petroleum products. The facility’s design capacity is up to 4.8 million metric tons of crude processed per year.

NIS itself received a separate special license on August 28. It is also valid until September 30 and allows the company to continue oil refining, crude oil imports, financial transactions, technical maintenance, and other operations necessary to ensure a stable supply to the market.

The extension of the license is particularly important given the problems with alternative supply channels. Due to low water levels in the Danube, the capacity to import fuel by barge has been significantly reduced this summer. In July, fuel imports via this route amounted to only about a quarter of the planned volume, which has increased Serbia’s dependence on the Pančevo refinery and supplies via JANAF.

NIS and JANAF are bound by a three-year contract for the transportation of up to 10 million metric tons of crude oil, which remains in effect until December 2026. Actual supply volumes depend on the amount of oil that NIS purchases and delivers to the Omišalj terminal.

The main issue now concerns the change in NIS’s ownership structure. Hungary’s MOL is in talks with Gazprom Neft regarding the purchase of a 56.15% stake in the company. A potential deal is seen as a long-term way to remove NIS from U.S. sanctions. OFAC has also issued separate temporary licenses to facilitate the negotiations.

U.S. sanctions against NIS took full effect in October 2025 due to Russian control over the company. Since then, OFAC has repeatedly issued temporary licenses, allowing Serbia to maintain the refinery’s operations and oil shipments through Croatia for the duration of negotiations regarding the sale of the Russian stake.

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Chernivtsi Oil and Fat Plant Cut Its Net Loss by Nearly Half

PJSC “Chernivtsi Oil and Fat Plant” (COFP), part of the Vioil Group, reduced its net loss by 47.9% in January–June 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, bringing it down to 48.8 million UAH.

According to the company’s disclosure in the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) reporting system, its net revenue from product sales for the first half of the year increased by 33.9% to 319.6 million UAH.
According to the financial statements, in January–June of this year, the company recorded a gross profit of 0.5 million UAH, compared to a gross loss of 40.9 million UAH for the same period last year, while the operating loss decreased by 46.8% to 49.1 million UAH.

The document notes that in the second quarter, the Chornomorsk Oil and extraction complex, increasing its capacity to 1,800 metric tons per day of sunflower seeds, compared to the current capacity of 500 metric tons per day. Work has already been completed on developing a feasibility study, including visualizations, for this construction project.
In addition, a project was developed to modernize the DKVR -20-13 boiler has been developed to reduce the burning of hulls, and equipment has been procured to implement a scheme for granulating oilcake prior to extraction, with the aim of increasing the oil extraction unit’s capacity and reducing costs by lowering the oil content of the meal.

As noted in the report, by the end of the second quarter of 2026, 12.29 thousand metric tons of sunflower seeds and 5.93 thousand metric tons of soybeans had been processed; production volumes of unrefined sunflower oil totaled 5.47 thousand metric tons; crude soybean oil production was 1.38 thousand metric tons, sunflower meal production was 4.82 thousand metric tons, and soybean meal production was 4.49 thousand metric tons. Production of refined and deodorized sunflower oil totaled 0.05 thousand metric tons.

It is noted that the capacity utilization rate of the oil extraction plant for the second quarter of 2026 was 52.15%, that of the oil refining shop was 0.92%, and 0.86 thousand metric tons of granulated sunflower hulls were produced. Part of the hulls is burned in the plant’s boiler room; the steam generated is used to power the plant’s production processes and to heat the facilities. During the reporting period, 6.01 thousand Gcal of thermal energy were generated.

As of June 30, 2026, the plant had 1.2 million UAH in its accounts, compared to 8.3 million UAH at the beginning of the year. At the same time, the enterprise had no bank loans—neither long-term nor short-term.

The ChozhK complex includes an oil extraction shop with a capacity of 500 metric tons of sunflower seeds per day (actually processing 470–490 metric tons per day), seed storage facilities for 7,500 metric tons, and metal silos for 2,400 metric tons, a 2,000-metric-ton meal elevator; a hull pelletizing section with a capacity of up to 45 metric tons per day; and oil storage tanks with a capacity of up to 5,000 cubic meters.

The average number of employees at the plant in the first half of 2026 was 313.
The company is part of the “Vioil” industrial group—one of Ukraine’s leading producers of sunflower oil.

In 2025, ChOZhK reported revenue of 768.4 million UAH, which is 51.2% less than in 2024, and a net loss of 144.1 million UAH, compared to a net profit of 14.3 million UAH a year earlier.

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USDA has lowered its forecast for soybean exports from Ukraine to 2.15 mln metric tons

In its August forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for soybean and soybean meal exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 marketing year (marketing year, September 2026–August 2027) by 0.25 million metric tons—to 2.15 million metric tons and 1.25 million metric tons, respectively.

The USDA attributes these changes to a reduction in planted acreage and a decline in this year’s soybean harvest.
Overall, the forecast for oilseed exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 MY has also been reduced by 0.25 million metric tons—to 4.85 million metric tons—but this is higher than the 4.24 million metric tons in the 2025/2026 MY, although significantly lower than the 7.39 million metric tons recorded the year before.

As for oilseed processing, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects it to reach 16.9 million metric tons in Ukraine during the 2026/2027 marketing year, which is 0.3 million metric tons less than in the July report. This is higher than the figures for both the 2025/2026 marketing year (14.8 million metric tons) and the 2024/2025 marketing year (15.7 million metric tons).

The USDA also lowered its estimate for sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year by 0.275 million metric tons, to 4.1 million metric tons.
All other estimates for harvest, processing, production, and exports for the 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 marketing years remain unchanged.

Thus, the overall forecast for vegetable oil exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 marketing year remains at 6.13 million metric tons, compared to 5.15 million metric tons in the 2025/2026 marketing year, including, respectively, sunflower oil at 4.95 million metric tons versus 4.1 million metric tons, sunflower meal at 3.3 million metric tons compared to 2.9 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, and sunflower seeds at 0.1 million metric tons versus 0.04 million metric tons

According to estimates by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, sunflower processing in Ukraine this marketing year will increase to 12.775 million metric tons from 10.8 million metric tons a year earlier, domestic consumption of sunflower meal will rise to 1.875 million metric tons from 1.65 million metric tons, and oil consumption will increase to 0.47 million metric tons from 0.455 million metric tons.

The USDA forecasts this year’s sunflower harvest at 13 million metric tons, with sunflower oil production at 4.418 million metric tons and meal production at 5.204 million metric tons.

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Food prices in Ukraine rose by 6.5% over past year, with fish and cooking oil rising by more than 20%

Food and non-alcoholic beverages in Ukraine fell by 0.2% in July 2026 compared to June, but remained 6.5% more expensive than a year earlier. Food alone, excluding non-alcoholic beverages, rose in price by 6.4% over the year.

The most significant year-over-year increases among major food categories were recorded for fish and fish products (22.4%), sunflower oil (21.8%), and bread and bakery products (18.6%).

Bread prices rose by 15.4%, pasta by 9.9%, milk by 8%, vegetables by 7.8%, cheese by 4.6%, and meat and meat products by 2.4%.

At the same time, a number of products became significantly cheaper over the course of the year. Eggs cost 25.4% less than in July of last year, fruit—9.5% less, and sugar—8.1% less.

In July alone, eggs became 6% cheaper, vegetables 5.9% cheaper, and meat and meat products 0.6% cheaper. At the same time, fruit prices rose by 1.5%, fish by 1.3%, and sunflower oil by 1.2%.

Seasonal trends are particularly noticeable: since the beginning of the year, eggs have become 43.1% cheaper, while fruit has become 26.2% more expensive and vegetables 18.7% more expensive.

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EU has authorized its member states to sell confiscated Russian oil

The European Union has established a legal framework allowing member states to sell Russian oil that was previously seized and confiscated in the course of cracking down on sanctions evasion.

The relevant provision is included in EU Council Regulation No. 2026/1848 of July 23, 2026, which formalized the 21st package of sanctions against Russia. The document states the need to enable national competent authorities to safely dispose of shipments of Russian oil that they seize and confiscate. Disposing of the cargo may include selling it to third parties.
However, the new provision does not grant EU authorities the automatic right to stop any tanker simply because it is transporting oil of Russian origin. First, the state must have legal grounds to detain the vessel and confiscate the cargo—for example, a violation of the sanctions regime, the absence of a valid flag, the provision of false documents, or other violations of European, national, or international law.
The new regulation primarily specifies what authorities may do with the cargo after its lawful confiscation. Once the confiscation procedure is complete, the former owner does not automatically receive the right to the proceeds from the sale of the cargo. However, the regulation does not establish a uniform procedure for distributing the proceeds across all EU countries, nor does it provide for their automatic transfer to Ukraine. Such decisions will depend on national legislation and the specific case.

According to Euractiv, the measure is primarily aimed at cargo from vessels used to circumvent EU oil sanctions. The option to sell the cargo is intended to address a practical problem: confiscated oil must be unloaded, stored, and safely sold, which entails significant costs and environmental risks.

The mechanism is part of the 21st EU sanctions package, adopted on July 23. The package also increases pressure on the Russian oil sector, traders, and the shadow fleet, and suspends the automatic review of the price cap on Russian oil until July 15, 2027.

In practice, the new rule may make it easier for EU member states to take action against vessels suspected of circumventing sanctions. However, each detention and confiscation must have a separate legal basis, and the owners of the vessels and cargo will be able to challenge such decisions in national and international courts.

 

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