In 2024, Ukraine transported about 11.36 million tons of Russian oil through the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, reducing transit by 16% compared to last year.
“This is the lowest value at least since 2014, and probably in the entire history of Ukraine’s independence since 1991,” former Energy Minister Olha Buslavets posted on Facebook late last week.
According to her, most of the Russian oil in 2024 was supplied to Hungary – more than 4.7 million tons, which is almost the same as in 2023. In addition, 3.9 million tons of oil were transported to Slovakia (-15%) and 2.7 million tons (-35%) to the Czech Republic.
As reported, in July 2024, Ukraine tightened sanctions against Russia’s LUKOIL, effectively banning the transit of oil to Central Europe through the Ukrainian section of the Druzhba pipeline. The company was a major supplier of raw materials to both Hungary (about a third of the country’s imports) and Slovakia (40-45%).
At the same time, in September, the Hungarian MOL Group announced an agreement with Russian oil suppliers and pipeline operators to ensure its transportation via the Druzhba pipeline through Belarus and Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia. According to MOL Group, the company has taken over ownership of the relevant volumes of crude oil on the border of Belarus and Ukraine.
Also in September, EC spokesman Olof Gill said that after Ukraine banned LUKOIL’s oil transit to Hungary and Slovakia, the European Commission (EC) quickly took all necessary steps to resolve the issue. He noted that LUKOIL is not the only oil supplier to Hungary and Slovakia.
Oil prices rose in pre-holiday trading on Tuesday, recovering the losses incurred the day before.
The cost of February futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $0.95 (1.3%) to $73.58 per barrel.
February futures for WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.86 (1.2%) to $70.1 per barrel.
Media reports that China may issue special treasury bonds worth a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in 2025 to raise funds to support the national economy have encouraged oil traders. China is one of the world’s largest oil importers and consumers.
Quotes continue to be supported by concerns about geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, as well as the prospect of tighter sanctions against Russia and Iran.
Meanwhile, expectations of an oversupply of crude oil amid unclear demand prospects and a stronger US dollar are having a restraining effect on oil prices, making commodities less attractive.
The market was evaluating the latest statements by US President-elect Donald Trump, who threatened to restore Washington’s control over the Panama Canal if the fee for passage through it is not reduced, and was also waiting for official data on commercial oil reserves in the US, which will be published this week with a delay due to the holidays.
“We can assume that WTI will trade around the $70 mark until Friday, when the late weekly report from the Energy Information Administration is released, which will set additional price targets,” Ritterbusch said in a research note.
On Wednesday, exchanges in the US, UK, Germany, France and other European countries, as well as Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia, are closed for Christmas. Many sites will remain closed on Thursday.
Oil prices are rising on Monday amid weak trading activity before the Christmas holidays.
On Wednesday, stock exchanges in the US, UK, Germany, France and other European countries, as well as Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia, will be closed for Christmas. Many sites will remain closed on Thursday as well.
The cost of February futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:20 a.m. is $73.27 per barrel, which is $0.33 (0.45%) higher than at the close of the previous trading. On Friday, these contracts fell by $0.06 (0.1%) to $72.94 per barrel.
Futures for WTI for February in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen in price by this time by $0.38 (0.55%) to $69.84 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts increased by $0.08 (0.1%) to $69.46 per barrel.
Last week, Brent fell by 2.1%, WTI – by 1.9%.
On Monday, traders are evaluating the statements of US President-elect Donald Trump, who demanded that the Panama Canal Authority reduce the fee for the passage of ships through this waterway. Otherwise, Washington may regain control of this facility, Trump said.
“Trump’s threats and rhetoric in the international arena are mostly just noise for the oil markets at the moment,” said Vanda Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. – “Given the low trading activity and the lack of strong market signals, I expect the sideways trend to continue until the end of the year.
Experts at Haitong Futures, whose review was cited by The Wall Street Journal on Monday, note that the US statistics released on Friday showed a weaker-than-expected increase in the Federal Reserve’s key inflation indicator (PCE index). This somewhat eased investors’ fears of a sharp slowdown in the pace of policy easing by the US Central Bank, Haitong said in a review.
Oil prices are rising on Monday after a significant decline last week.
The cost of February futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:25 a.m. is $72.2 per barrel, which is $0.36 (0.5%) higher than at the close of the previous trading. On Friday, these contracts fell by $0.94 (1.3%) to $71.84 per barrel.
January futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen in price by this time by $0.37 (0.54%) to $68.37 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts decreased by $0.72 (1.1%) to $68 per barrel.
Last week, Brent fell by 3%, WTI – by 4.6%.
On Monday, the market was supported by positive statistics from China published last weekend.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in China’s manufacturing industry increased to 50.3 points in November from 50.1 points a month earlier, according to the country’s State Statistical Office (SSO). Thus, the indicator reached a seven-month high. A PMI reading above 50 points indicates an increase in activity in the industrial sector, while a reading below 50 points indicates a decline. The indicator has been above this level for two months.
Traders’ attention is now focused on the OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting and the ministerial meeting, which were postponed from December 1 to December 5. The reason for the postponement was the participation of several ministers in the Kuwaiti summit.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that the key OPEC+ countries have begun discussions about a possible further postponement of the oil production increase scheduled for January. According to the agency, the countries doubt that the market situation allows them to increase production in January and may postpone these plans for several months.
Oil is losing 4.5% in price on Monday, as the market assesses news from the Middle East.
As reported, on the night of October 26, Israel launched a series of air strikes on Iranian military targets. The attack was Israel’s response to the strike on the country by Iranian forces on October 1.
The fact that Israel did not attack Iran’s oil facilities, as well as the smaller-than-expected scale of the attack in general, eased traders’ fears of a possible escalation of the conflict, Market Watch notes.
“Israel’s attack did not affect energy infrastructure and was limited in scope. This is likely to ease fears of a direct conflict with Iran,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors.
The cost of December futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:15 a.m. is $72.63 per barrel, which is $3.42 (4.5%) lower than at the close of the previous trading. On Friday, these contracts rose by $1.67 (2.3%) to $76.05 per barrel.
December futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by $3.34 (4.65%) to $68.44 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts increased by $1.59 (2.3%) to $71.78 per barrel.
Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn notes, however, that the oil market’s concerns about the Middle East conflict will persist.
“The bottom line is that the immediate threat of oil supply disruptions from the region has passed. However, if you think this will put an end to the conflict, I don’t think so. Even if Iran doesn’t respond to this strike, I think it will try to make sure that its proxies regroup and respond one way or another,” the Market Watch expert said.
Oil prices rose on Friday for the third consecutive session and ended the week in the black for the first time in a month.
Market participants are trying to assess the impact of Hurricane Frances, which hit the Louisiana coast on Wednesday night. According to official figures, about 39% of US production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico were shut down due to the weather.
“The impact of the hurricane is still not fully known as the affected regions assess the damage to infrastructure,” said Schneider Electric analyst Robbie Fraser. Usually, offshore oil production recovers quite quickly after such events, the expert said, as quoted by Market Watch.
The cost of November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 8:25 a.m. is $72.43 per barrel, which is $0.48 (0.67%) higher than at the close of the previous trading. On Thursday, these contracts rose by $1.36 (1.9%) to $71.97 per barrel.
October futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) increased in price by $0.48 (0.7%) to $69.45 per barrel. As a result of the previous session, the cost of these contracts increased by $1.66 (2.5%) to $68.97 per barrel.
Since the beginning of this week, Brent has risen in price by 2%, WTI – by 2.6%.
The growth of the oil market is constrained by concerns about the prospects for global demand.
On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its estimate of global oil demand growth in 2024 by 67 thousand barrels per day compared to last year, to 903 thousand bpd from the previously expected 970 thousand bpd.
Commenting on the forecast of a slowdown in demand growth this year, analysts noted the adjustment of expectations for oil consumption in China. Now the IEA expects that oil demand in China will grow by only 180 thousand bpd in 2024, to 16.7 million bpd. At the same time, at the beginning of the year, this parameter was estimated at 700 thousand bpd, and last month – about 300 thousand bpd.
