According to Serbian Economist, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury has extended until December 11, 2026, the licenses required for the Serbian oil company NIS to operate, for the transportation of oil for NIS via the Croatian JANAF system, and for the Hungarian company MOL to continue negotiations regarding the acquisition of a controlling stake in NIS.
NIS announced on October 30 that it had received a new special OFAC license. It allows the company to continue its operations, fulfill existing contracts and other agreements, refine and import crude oil, carry out operations necessary for supply security and maintenance, and conduct financial transactions. The previous license was valid until October 30.
On October 31, the Croatian oil pipeline operator JANAF also announced the extension of its U.S. license until December 11. The authorization allows the company to continue fulfilling its contractual obligations to NIS within the framework of the current sanctions regime. Thus, the ability to transport crude oil through the JANAF system to the Serbian oil refinery in Pančevo remains intact.
The Hungarian oil and gas group MOL received a separate OFAC license valid through December 11. The company may continue negotiations regarding the acquisition of a majority stake in NIS. MOL officially confirmed receipt of the license on October 30.
The extension of these licenses is of critical importance to Serbia’s energy market. The NIS oil refinery in Pančevo is central to the country’s supply of petroleum products, and the company itself has previously emphasized that the uninterrupted operation of the refinery and a stable supply to the domestic market are critical to Serbia’s energy security.
At the same time, the renewal of the licenses only temporarily alleviates the risk of supply disruptions and does not resolve the main issue—the ownership structure of NIS.
According to NIS data as of September 30, 2026, Gazprom Neft holds 44.85% of the company’s shares, while another 11.30% is owned by JSC Intelligence, which is managed by Gazprom Capital. Thus, the total stake held by Russian entities amounts to 56.15%. The Serbian government owns 29.87% of NIS, with the remaining shares held by minority shareholders.
It was precisely this Russian stake in NIS that led to the extension of U.S. sanctions to the Serbian company. Hungary’s MOL is in talks to acquire a majority stake, but the deal has not yet been finalized.
The new OFAC waivers effectively give the parties about six more weeks to continue negotiations and seek a long-term solution. Until December 11, NIS may import and refine oil, JANAF may continue its contractual operations with the Serbian company, and MOL may negotiate changes to the ownership structure.
If the issue of the Russian stake in NIS is not finally resolved by that date, the companies may again need an extension of the U.S. licenses.
In the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 (FY, July 2026–June 2027) processed 564,000 metric tons of oilseeds, a 1% increase compared to the first quarter of FY 2026, while oil sales volume fell by 48% compared to the same quarter of the previous fiscal year, to 165,000 metric tons.
“Although oilseed processing volumes remained generally stable compared to last year, sales figures were significantly impacted by disruptions in port logistics: for most of the quarter, shipments through Black Sea ports were effectively blocked,” the company stated in a stock exchange announcement on Friday.
“Kernel” clarified that, compared to the previous quarter, processing volumes decreased by 13% due to scheduled maintenance work that lasted one month, while oil sales fell by 52%. Sunflower seeds accounted for 59% of total processing volume, while soybeans and rapeseed made up the remainder, which helped maintain overall capacity utilization.
Of the total volume of products sold, 16,000 metric tons were packaged sunflower oil.
According to the press release, the volume of grain and oilseed crops received at Kernel’s elevators in the first quarter of FY 2027 totaled 969,000 metric tons, which is 21% less than in the same period last year and is attributed to a slower pace of corn harvesting on the group’s farms.
Kernel’s grain exports from Ukraine in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 totaled 574,000 metric tons, down 54% compared to the same period last year and 71% lower than the previous quarter, the report states.
“Export operations were significantly restricted due to disruptions in maritime logistics caused by Russian attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure and commercial vessels. In response, the Group rerouted part of its export flows through ports on the Danube and Ukraine’s western land borders,” Kernel noted.
At the same time, the company clarified that, given the lower throughput capacity and higher logistics costs, these routes were only able to partially offset the losses in exports through Black Sea ports.
It is noted that the performance of export terminals was similarly affected: in the first quarter of 2027, transshipment volume totaled 742,000 metric tons, which is 59% less than in the same period last year and 73% less than in the previous quarter. Operations at Kernel’s port facilities, which were damaged during the attacks in July, were suspended, while general disruptions to shipping through Ukraine’s deep-water Black Sea ports further limited throughput capacity. Restoration work continued throughout the reporting period, but frequent and prolonged air raid alerts repeatedly interrupted the repair process, the statement said.
Before the war, the Kernel agricultural holding was the world’s leading producer of sunflower oil (accounting for about 7% of global production) and its exporter (about 12%). It is one of the largest producers and sellers of bottled oil in Ukraine. In addition, it is engaged in the cultivation and sale of agricultural products.
Based on its 2026 financial results (July 2025–June 2026), Kernel increased its EBITDA by 20% to $558 million and its net profit by 35% to $322 million, with revenue growing by 7% to $4.404 billion.
Global oil prices closed Friday near their highest levels in nearly six months amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns about disruptions to energy supplies.
Brent crude futures for December delivery on the London-based ICE Futures exchange rose by $3.55 (3.14%) to $116.72 per barrel at the close of trading on Friday. This is the highest closing price since April 29, 2026.
WTI crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $3.80 (3.8%) to $103.27 per barrel. For the week, Brent rose by about 6%, and WTI by 2.3%, according to Reuters.
On Saturday, October 24, the major exchanges for oil futures do not hold regular trading sessions.
The oil market is being supported by fears of a further escalation of the conflict in the region. According to Reuters, Friday’s price increase was linked, in particular, to attacks by Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis on Saudi Arabian territory, including energy infrastructure.
Reports of an oil spill off the coast of the United Arab Emirates have added to market concerns. However, the country’s authorities have not disclosed the cause of the incident nor identified the vessel from which the oil may have leaked.
Market participants are also monitoring the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent sea lanes. The increasing number of incidents involving commercial vessels heightens the risk of disruptions to oil supplies from the Persian Gulf countries.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. authorized an emergency release of up to 400,000 barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to compensate for disruptions in crude oil supplies to the Phillips 66 refinery in Louisiana. Germany has also begun releasing part of its strategic reserves of petroleum products and crude oil.
Future price trends will depend on developments in the Middle East, the status of maritime shipping routes, and whether the escalation of the conflict leads to an actual reduction in oil exports from the region.
According to Serbian Economist, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury has extended the operating license of the Serbian oil company NIS until October 30, 2026, allowing the company to continue its current operations after the previous permit expires on September 30.
The license extension means that NIS will be able to continue its operations, including the purchase and refining of crude oil, the production of petroleum products, and their supply to the Serbian market.
NIS has been subject to U.S. sanctions due to the company’s ownership structure and the involvement of Russian capital. Gazprom and Gazprom Neft entities remain the key Russian shareholders, while the Serbian government holds a large minority stake.
For Serbia, the issue of NIS’s operations is of strategic importance. The company operates the country’s only oil refinery in Pančevo and the largest network of gas stations, and it also holds key positions in the supply of petroleum products to the domestic market.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has previously stated on multiple occasions that Belgrade is negotiating with the U.S. side in an effort to ensure the uninterrupted operation of NIS while simultaneously finding a long-term solution to the issue of Russian ownership.
The one-month extension of the operating license eliminates the immediate risk of the company ceasing operations in early October, but it does not definitively resolve the issue of sanctions. In effect, Belgrade and NIS shareholders have been granted additional time to find a model for changing the ownership structure that is acceptable to OFAC.
Separately, negotiations are ongoing regarding the possible sale of the Russian stake. Throughout 2026, potential participants in the future deal included Hungary’s MOL and the UAE’s ADNOC, but the final structure of a possible deal has not yet been agreed upon.
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From September 1 to 21, 2026, Ukraine exported 1.6 million metric tons of agricultural products, which represents 43% of the volume that would have been exported had the logistics system been operating at full capacity, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky said at a briefing on Thursday.
He specified that 275,000 metric tons of oilseeds were shipped abroad, or 75% of the volume that would have been exported under normal logistics conditions; 190,000 metric tons of oil (55%); 173,000 metric tons of meal (41%); while grain exports totaled 960,000 metric tons (38%).
“We see that the share of grains (compared to potential volumes – IF-U) is the smallest, and, accordingly, the share of oilseeds, oil, and meal is larger. Therefore, yes, as of today, the priority remains on exporting value-added products,” Vysotsky said.
As reported, during the first 15 days of September, Ukraine exported 131,000 metric tons of oil, which accounted for 62% of the volume that would have been exported during this period if the ports had been operating freely.
According to Experts.news, Ukraine could account for about 31.3% of global sunflower oil exports in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to calculations by Open4Business based on the September forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, published on September 11, 2026, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports are projected to reach 5 million metric tons, while global exports are expected to total 15.968 million metric tons.
Thus, nearly one in every three metric tons of sunflower oil supplied to the global market may be of Ukrainian origin.
In the previous 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine exported approximately 4.036 million metric tons of sunflower oil out of total global exports of about 13.51 million metric tons. At that time, Ukraine’s share was about 29.9%. In the new season, this figure may increase by approximately 1.4 percentage points.
The USDA expects Ukraine to remain the world’s second-largest exporter of sunflower oil after Russia. Russian shipments are projected at 5.1 million metric tons, accounting for approximately 31.9% of global exports.
Together, Ukraine and Russia could supply about 10.1 million metric tons to foreign markets, or more than 63% of total global sunflower oil exports.
Argentina will remain the third-largest exporter, with projected shipments of about 2.05 million metric tons, accounting for approximately 12.8% of global trade. Turkey is expected to export about 1.1 million metric tons, and the European Union—about 850,000 metric tons.
The growth in Ukrainian exports will be driven by a recovery in the sunflower harvest and increased capacity utilization at processing plants. The USDA forecasts sunflower seed production in Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year at 13 million metric tons, compared to 10.7 million metric tons in the previous season.
Sunflower oil production, according to the agency’s estimates, will increase to 5.418 million metric tons from 4.515 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, or by approximately 20%.
At the same time, domestic consumption of sunflower oil in Ukraine is expected to reach about 470,000 metric tons, so the bulk of the additional production will be directed toward exports.
Overall, the USDA forecasts global sunflower oil exports to grow by approximately 18%—from 13.51 million metric tons in the previous season to 15.968 million metric tons in the 2026/27 marketing year.
The increase in supply will largely be driven by a recovery in production in the Black Sea region, primarily in Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, imports are expected to rise from the largest consumers of vegetable oils, notably India and China.
Ukraine traditionally remains one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of sunflower oil. A distinctive feature of the Ukrainian industry is the high proportion of domestic seed processing, which means that exports consist primarily of higher-value-added products—oil and meal—rather than raw materials.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, September 11, 2026: official USDA report.
