According to Experts Club, the global oil market has entered a phase of a major fuel crisis following more than half a year of declining commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products, while the options for further drawing on strategic reserves are becoming increasingly limited, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing executives from the largest U.S. oil companies.
As the publication notes, U.S. oil companies have been warning for several months that prolonged restrictions on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would ultimately lead to a fuel shortage. Now, according to their assessment, that moment has arrived.
Global commercial fuel stocks have been declining for more than six months. At the same time, governments have already been actively drawing on strategic reserves to keep prices in check, so the volume of available additional supply has dropped significantly. The WSJ emphasizes that this does not mean government reserves have physically run out, but rather that the scope for new large-scale interventions is becoming significantly narrower.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated as early as September 11 that the reserves and other mechanisms that had kept oil prices from rising for several months “have largely run their course.” According to him, global commercial oil reserves were at high levels at the beginning of the year, but by September they had declined significantly.
The attack on the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia—which allows oil to be exported bypassing the Strait of Hormuz—dealt an additional blow to the market. Analysts estimate that after the pipeline was shut down, at least 2.5 million barrels of oil per day disappeared from the market.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also confirms these supply issues. The agency describes the situation as the largest disruption to oil supplies in the history of the global market. Before the crisis, approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil and another 5 million barrels of petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, which together accounted for about 20% of global oil consumption.
To stabilize the market, IEA member countries agreed back in March to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves—the largest such release in the agency’s history. However, as the crisis drags on, this reserve mechanism is becoming less effective.
According to the latest available IEA data, from the start of the Middle East crisis through the end of July alone, global observed oil stocks fell by approximately 410 million barrels, or an average of 2.7 million barrels per day. Total stocks fell below 7.9 billion barrels for the first time since April 2025.
The situation is particularly tense in the diesel and jet fuel markets. The IEA notes a sharp decline in international shipments of petroleum products and a record increase in refining margins. Diesel exports from Russia, the Middle East, and Asia were approximately 1.3 million barrels per day lower than last year’s level, accounting for about one-fifth of global seaborne diesel trade.
An additional risk stems from China. In previous months, the country had cut imports and partially drawn down its own stockpiles, helping to curb global demand. However, by August, Chinese refineries were already processing more crude oil than was supplied by current imports and domestic production, prompting the country to draw down its stockpiles more aggressively.
Against this backdrop, Brent crude is once again trading above $100 per barrel. Following a new attack on Saudi infrastructure, Brent prices rose to approximately $107.5 per barrel on September 15, while WTI prices climbed above $103.
The IEA identifies the restoration of full-scale oil and petroleum product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz as the key factor capable of quickly stabilizing the market. Without this, the global economy will remain vulnerable to new disruptions, as a significant portion of the reserves that helped the world weather the first months of the crisis has already been depleted.
Source: The Wall Street Journal article “Oil Executives Say the Great Fuel Crisis Is Here” dated September 15, 2026.
According to Experts.news, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year at 5 million metric tons, which is nearly 24% higher than the previous season’s figure of 4.036 million metric tons.
According to the USDA’s September report, *Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade*, sunflower oil production in Ukraine is expected to reach 5.418 million metric tons, up from 4.515 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year—an increase of approximately 20%.
At the same time, domestic consumption of sunflower oil is projected to remain relatively stable—470,000 metric tons compared to 455,000 metric tons in the previous season. The USDA estimates ending stocks at 213,000 metric tons, compared to 265,000 metric tons. Thus, most of the increase in production is likely to be directed toward export markets.
Ukraine will remain one of the world’s two largest exporters of sunflower oil. The USDA forecasts exports from Russia at 5.1 million metric tons, Ukraine at 5 million metric tons, Argentina at 2.05 million metric tons, Turkey at 1.1 million metric tons, and the EU at 850,000 metric tons.
The USDA estimates total global sunflower oil exports at 15.968 million metric tons, compared to 13.51 million metric tons in the previous season.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, September 11, 2026.
From September 1 to 9, Ukraine exported 630,000 metric tons of grains, oilseeds, and products derived from them, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky said at a briefing on Friday.
“From September 1 to 9, 630,000 metric tons of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products were exported. As of today, this represents 40% of what we could have exported. We ended August at 33%. Our forecast remains unchanged—to reach 50% of the target for September–October,” Vysotsky said.
According to him, 380,000 metric tons of grains were exported (35% of demand), 94,000 metric tons of oilseeds (64%), 97,000 metric tons of oil (66%), and 60,000 metric tons of meal (33%).
Vysotsky noted that compared to 2025, exports of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products have decreased by 60%.
According to The Serbian Economist, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury has extended a special license to the Croatian company JANAF, allowing it to continue transporting crude oil for the Serbian company NIS until September 30, 2026.
The company reported that it received the license extension with the assistance of the Croatian government and U.S. legal advisors. The authorization allows it to continue fulfilling its existing contract with NIS within the framework of the U.S. sanctions regime.
Thus, crude oil deliveries via the Adriatic Pipeline can continue for at least another month. The oil arrives by sea at the JANAF terminal in Omišalj on the island of Krk, after which it is transported via the pipeline system toward Serbia and used by the NIS refinery in Pančevo.
This decision is of critical importance for Serbia. The refinery in Pančevo is the country’s only large oil refinery and meets about 80% of the Serbian market’s demand for petroleum products. The facility’s design capacity is up to 4.8 million metric tons of crude processed per year.
NIS itself received a separate special license on August 28. It is also valid until September 30 and allows the company to continue oil refining, crude oil imports, financial transactions, technical maintenance, and other operations necessary to ensure a stable supply to the market.
The extension of the license is particularly important given the problems with alternative supply channels. Due to low water levels in the Danube, the capacity to import fuel by barge has been significantly reduced this summer. In July, fuel imports via this route amounted to only about a quarter of the planned volume, which has increased Serbia’s dependence on the Pančevo refinery and supplies via JANAF.
NIS and JANAF are bound by a three-year contract for the transportation of up to 10 million metric tons of crude oil, which remains in effect until December 2026. Actual supply volumes depend on the amount of oil that NIS purchases and delivers to the Omišalj terminal.
The main issue now concerns the change in NIS’s ownership structure. Hungary’s MOL is in talks with Gazprom Neft regarding the purchase of a 56.15% stake in the company. A potential deal is seen as a long-term way to remove NIS from U.S. sanctions. OFAC has also issued separate temporary licenses to facilitate the negotiations.
U.S. sanctions against NIS took full effect in October 2025 due to Russian control over the company. Since then, OFAC has repeatedly issued temporary licenses, allowing Serbia to maintain the refinery’s operations and oil shipments through Croatia for the duration of negotiations regarding the sale of the Russian stake.
https://t.me/relocationrs/3564
PJSC “Chernivtsi Oil and Fat Plant” (COFP), part of the Vioil Group, reduced its net loss by 47.9% in January–June 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, bringing it down to 48.8 million UAH.
According to the company’s disclosure in the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) reporting system, its net revenue from product sales for the first half of the year increased by 33.9% to 319.6 million UAH.
According to the financial statements, in January–June of this year, the company recorded a gross profit of 0.5 million UAH, compared to a gross loss of 40.9 million UAH for the same period last year, while the operating loss decreased by 46.8% to 49.1 million UAH.
The document notes that in the second quarter, the Chornomorsk Oil and extraction complex, increasing its capacity to 1,800 metric tons per day of sunflower seeds, compared to the current capacity of 500 metric tons per day. Work has already been completed on developing a feasibility study, including visualizations, for this construction project.
In addition, a project was developed to modernize the DKVR -20-13 boiler has been developed to reduce the burning of hulls, and equipment has been procured to implement a scheme for granulating oilcake prior to extraction, with the aim of increasing the oil extraction unit’s capacity and reducing costs by lowering the oil content of the meal.
As noted in the report, by the end of the second quarter of 2026, 12.29 thousand metric tons of sunflower seeds and 5.93 thousand metric tons of soybeans had been processed; production volumes of unrefined sunflower oil totaled 5.47 thousand metric tons; crude soybean oil production was 1.38 thousand metric tons, sunflower meal production was 4.82 thousand metric tons, and soybean meal production was 4.49 thousand metric tons. Production of refined and deodorized sunflower oil totaled 0.05 thousand metric tons.
It is noted that the capacity utilization rate of the oil extraction plant for the second quarter of 2026 was 52.15%, that of the oil refining shop was 0.92%, and 0.86 thousand metric tons of granulated sunflower hulls were produced. Part of the hulls is burned in the plant’s boiler room; the steam generated is used to power the plant’s production processes and to heat the facilities. During the reporting period, 6.01 thousand Gcal of thermal energy were generated.
As of June 30, 2026, the plant had 1.2 million UAH in its accounts, compared to 8.3 million UAH at the beginning of the year. At the same time, the enterprise had no bank loans—neither long-term nor short-term.
The ChozhK complex includes an oil extraction shop with a capacity of 500 metric tons of sunflower seeds per day (actually processing 470–490 metric tons per day), seed storage facilities for 7,500 metric tons, and metal silos for 2,400 metric tons, a 2,000-metric-ton meal elevator; a hull pelletizing section with a capacity of up to 45 metric tons per day; and oil storage tanks with a capacity of up to 5,000 cubic meters.
The average number of employees at the plant in the first half of 2026 was 313.
The company is part of the “Vioil” industrial group—one of Ukraine’s leading producers of sunflower oil.
In 2025, ChOZhK reported revenue of 768.4 million UAH, which is 51.2% less than in 2024, and a net loss of 144.1 million UAH, compared to a net profit of 14.3 million UAH a year earlier.
OIL, PROCESSING, SUNFLOWER, VIOIL, ЧОЖК
