The forecasted gross harvest of grain crops in Ukraine in 2023 could be 34 million tons, which is 37% less than in 2022 and 60% less than in 2021, while the yield of oilseeds is expected to be 19.3 million tons, which is 13% more than in 2022 and 15% less than in 2021.
As reported on the website of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Association (UCAB) on Friday, such a reduction in the grain harvest is caused by the reduction of cultivated areas under crops next year by 45%, to 8.7 million hectares.
The reasons for the reduction in the grain harvest next year will be a decrease in the total sown area, a change in the structure of crops in favor of oilseeds and lower yields of grain crops.
UCAB noted that of the 28.4 million hectares under cultivation in 2021, by December 2022 there are 24.6 million hectares of agricultural land (86% of the total area) in the controlled territory of Ukraine, of which 3.8 million hectares are not suitable for agricultural work due to their proximity to the front lines, contamination by mines and shells, etc. In addition, the end of the sowing campaign of winter crops has demonstrated a significant reduction in the sown area – 3.8 million hectares of winter crops have been sown in 2022, which is 43% lower than in 2021.
UCAB stressed that the reason for this trend is the limited ability to export crops, expensive logistics and, as a consequence, a significant difference in prices of crops by region.
“The regions that are geographically close to sea ports and borders with the EU, have a higher price for agricultural products compared to the regions in the north and east of our country. For example, the price of corn with VAT in Transcarpathian region is 6800 UAH per ton, and in Sumy region – 4900 UAH. However, even in western regions the price is unprofitable. Therefore, the proximity of the border with the EU and working ports determines the ability of the relevant areas to continue grain production, “- the association specified in the message.
In turn, next 2023 will see an increase in the area under oilseeds due to their higher margins compared to grain crops and a significant increase in the logistics of grain this year.
“The price of oil-bearing crops is 2 times higher than the price of grain crops on the world market. According to preliminary estimates, the sown areas under grain crops in 2023 will be 8.7 million hectares, which is 22% less than in 2022 and 45% less than in 2021. The projected area sown with oilseeds is 9.7 million hectares, which is 32% more than in 2022 and 9% more than in 2021. For the first time, the area under oilseeds will be larger than that under grains,” the UCAB said in a statement.
In addition, next year’s average yield will decrease by 10-30%, depending on the region and crop, compared to the average yield of previous years due to a 50-60% reduction in fertilizer application, significant amounts of corn left in the fields of the 2022 crop, the lack of agribusiness funding and the need for significant resource savings.
UCAB stressed that taking into account the given gross production volumes and domestic needs of Ukraine the export potential of grains and oilseeds in 2023/24 marketing year (MY, July-June) will be about 35 million tons, or 3 million tons per month. For comparison, in 2021/22 MY export potential was at the level of 85 million tons of grains and oilseeds, or 7 million tons per month.
As reported, Ukraine in 2021 harvested a record crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds at 106 million tons: 84 million tons of cereals and legumes, and 22.6 million tons of oilseeds.
A total of 32.4 million tons of wheat, 40 million tons of corn, 10 million tons of barley, 581.5 thousand tons of peas, 191 thousand tons of millet and 110 tons of buckwheat were harvested last year. Sunflower harvest amounted to 16.3 million tons, soybeans – 3.4 million tons and rapeseed – 2.9 million tons.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.4% compared to the August forecast, to 67.5 million tonnes from 64.5 million tonnes, according to the UGA website on Wednesday.
This change in forecasts is due to an increase in the area where the crop will be harvested, as well as an improvement in the average yield from 3.57 tonnes/ha to 3.64 tonnes/ha.
According to it, the total export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 47.5 million tonnes (in the forecast for August, 31% less – 32.8 million tonnes), provided that marine grain corridors are operational until the end of the marketing year. At the same time, the transitional balances of agricultural products in the country at the beginning of 2022/2023 MY amounted to 26 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds, and by the end of the MY they are estimated at 19.2 million tonnes (in the forecast for August, 37% more – 30.5 million tonnes).
“In general, export of grain and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports continue to operate until the end of the season. Exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries that are in dire need of it,” the organization said in a statement.
According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 19.3 million tonnes (1.5% more compared to the August forecast); 24 million tonnes of corn (forecast kept); 5.6 million tonnes of barley (3.7% more); 10 million tonnes of sunflower (11% more); 3.6 million tonnes of soybeans (1.6 times more); and 3.15 million tonnes of rapeseed (5% more).
In the November forecast, the association raised its export forecasts compared to August ones – for example, wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY are expected at the level of 13 million tonnes (33% more), corn – 20 million tonnes (a 2-fold increase), barley – 2 million tonnes (forecast is kept), sunflower – 6 million tonnes (forecast is kept), soybean – 3.5 million tonnes (an increase of 2 times), and rapeseed – 2.8 million tonnes (forecast is kept).
“We estimate the preliminary forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds for the next 2023 at the level of 53.2 million tonnes, and export at the level of 39.7 million tonnes. Everything will depend on the conditions under which Ukrainian farmers will be able to carry out spring sowing, and subsequently harvest crops,” the UGA said in the statement.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has reduced the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 7.1% compared to the July forecast – to 64.5 million tons from 69.4 million tons, according to the UGA website .
This change in forecasts was caused by a 5.8% reduction in sown areas under these crops to 18.0 million hectares from 19.1 million hectares due to the consequences of Russian aggression in Ukraine.
“Despite the stubbornness and courage of Ukrainian farmers, there are objective obstacles to harvesting in mined, occupied areas and destroyed crops,” the UGA statement says.
According to her, the total export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 32.8 million tons (in the July forecast – 31.5 million tons), provided that sea grain corridors are maintained and further expanding the capacity of border crossings on the western borders of Ukraine. At the same time, the transitional balances of agricultural products in the country at the beginning of MY 2022/2023 amounted to 26 million tons of grain and oilseeds, and by the end of the MY they are expected to increase to 30.5 million tons.
“In general, the export of grains and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports for export remain open. Export of grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries who are in dire need of it,” the organization said in a statement.
According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 19 million tons (-8.6% compared to the July forecast of the organization); 24 million tons of corn (-12.1%); 5.4 million tons of barley (-18%); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (forecast kept); 3 million tons of rapeseed (2 times increase).
In the August forecast, the Association retained its export forecasts compared to July – for example, wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY are expected to be at the level of 10 million tons, corn – 10 million tons, barley – 2 million tons, sunflower – 6 million tons, soybeans – 1 .8 million tons. However, rapeseed exports will double to 2.8 million tons.
As reported with reference to the data of the State Statistics Service, in 2021 Ukraine harvested a record harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the amount of 85.7 million tons, which is 32% more than in 2020. In total, 32.07 million tons of wheat (+28.9%), 41.87 million tons of corn (+38.2%) and 9.42 million tons of barley (+23.3%) were harvested.
Ukraine in 2021 also harvested 16.38 million tons of sunflower (+25% compared to 2020), 10.8 million tons of sugar beet (+18.1%), 3.5 million tons of soybeans (+24.4%), 2.92 million tons of rapeseed and 42 thousand tons of oilseed flax (an increase of 3.7 times).
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is an association of producers, processors and large grain exporters who annually export about 90% of Ukrainian grain products.
The forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine this season has been improved by approximately 5-7 million tons – up to 65-67 million tons from 60 million tons, according to the website of the government portal on Wednesday.
It is specified that the increase in the harvest forecast was announced by the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solsky during a conference call between Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and the heads of regions.
In turn, the Prime Minister noted that in the context of the Russian military invasion in Ukraine, 12 million tons of new crop grain have already been harvested from a total area of 3.5 million hectares.
Shmyhal also announced the emergence of additional opportunities for grain exports due to the unblocking of the Odessa seaport under the Istanbul Agreement on the export of agricultural products from Ukraine, concluded on July 22 under the auspices of the UN.
“In total, in June we exported 3.2 million tons out of 5 million tons (pre-war monthly volumes – IF-U) that were required. Exports are gradually growing both by rail, by road, and through the Danube ports. Sea ports will significantly expand these opportunities and farmers will receive new opportunities for the sale of products. The state is doing everything necessary for this,” the Prime Minister’s government portal quotes.
Shmygal also noted the recently introduced grant program for the development of horticulture, greenhouses, the development of processing and micro-enterprises, under which over 5,000 applications have already been submitted and processed, and this week the first applicants will receive state support.
As reported, the US Department of Agriculture in the July report predicts the harvest of Ukrainian wheat in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) at the level of 19.5 million tons, its export – 10 million tons, domestic consumption within the country – 10.2 million tons . The corn harvest is estimated at 25 million tons, export – 9 million tons, domestic consumption – 10.7 million tons.
In early July, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.4% compared to the May forecast, to 69.4 million tons from 66.5 million tons.
According to her forecasts, in 2022 the wheat harvest is expected at the level of 20.8 million tons (+8.3% to the organization’s May forecast); 27.3 million tons of corn (+4.6%); 6.6 million tons of barley (forecast kept); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (+4.7%); 1.5 million tons of rapeseed (+13.3%).
The agricultural sector of Kazakhstan has great potential and can become one of the long-term suppliers of high-quality wheat and oilseeds to Saudi Arabia, President of the Republic Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said.
“Kazakhstan ranks second in the world in terms of arable land per capita and fifth in terms of pasture resources (180 million hectares). Our country is one of the 10 largest producers of wheat and flour. We are ready to become one of the stable, long-term suppliers of high-quality wheat, flour and oilseeds to the kingdom,” Tokayev said, speaking at an investment round table with representatives of the business community of Saudi Arabia on Sunday in Jeddah.
KAZAKHSTAN, OILSEEDS, SAUDI ARABIA, SUPPLIER, Tokayev, WHEAT
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.4% compared to the May forecast – up to 69.4 million tons from 66.5 million tons, according to the UGA website on Wednesday.
At the same time, the assessment by the association of sown areas under these crops increased by 1.6% compared to forecasts in May – up to 19.1 million hectares from 18.8 million hectares.
“Ukrainian farmers, despite the difficult wartime conditions, minefields and hostilities due to the aggressive war of the Russian Federation, continue to courageously fight for the harvest so that Ukraine has enough grain and can export part of the crop to the world market. This year, Ukraine can get 69 .4 million tons of grain and oilseeds from an area of about 19.1 million hectares,” the UGA said in a statement.
At the same time, the export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 31.5 million tons, subject to a significant increase in the throughput capacity of border crossings on the western borders of Ukraine. Given the current throughput capacity, Ukraine can count on the export of about 25-30 million tons of crops in the 2022/2023 marketing year that has begun.
According to the results of 2021/2022 MY, it is expected that the transitional crop balances in the country will amount to about 25.9 million tons (+0.9 million tons compared to UGA forecasts in May). In 2022/2023 MY, this figure may increase to 36.6-48 million tons due to the inability to export agricultural products at the usual pace for Ukraine. In May, the association predicted transitional balances for 2022/2023 MY at the level of 31-43 million tons.
According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 20.8 million tons (+8.3% compared to the organization’s May forecast); 27.3 million tons of corn (+4.6%); 6.6 million tons of barley (forecast kept); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (+4.7%); 1.5 million tons of rapeseed (+13.3%).
UGA also predicts the export of wheat in 2022/2023 MY at the level of 10 million tons, corn – 10 million tons, barley – 2 million tons, sunflower – 6 million tons, soybeans – 1.8 million tons, rapeseed – 1.45 million tons.
“In general, the export of grains and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level, if Ukraine, under the blockade of the Black Sea ports, can double the throughput of other logistics directions, including railway crossings at the borders with the EU countries,” the association explained in message.
At the same time, the unblocking of the Black Sea ports will greatly simplify the logistics and cost of transporting grain for export, and producers will be able to make a big profit for the grown crop in accordance with the high prices for agricultural crops that are currently prevailing on the world market. “Unblocking Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and effectively resume Ukrainian grain exports to countries in dire need. The lack and high cost of food can cause, according to UN estimates, famine in many poor countries of the world, mass protests and riots, and as a result mass migration of people from Africa and the Middle East to the EU,” the UGA summed up in the message.
As reported with reference to the data of the State Statistics Service, in 2021 Ukraine harvested a record harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the amount of 85.7 million tons, which is 32% more than in 2020. In total, 32.07 million tons of wheat (+28.9%), 41.87 million tons of corn (+38.2%) and 9.42 million tons of barley (+23.3%) were harvested.
Ukraine in 2021 also harvested 16.38 million tons of sunflower (+25% compared to 2020), 10.8 million tons of sugar beet (+18.1%), 3.5 million tons of soybeans (+24.4%), 2.92 million tons of rapeseed and 42 thousand tons of oilseed flax (an increase of 3.7 times).
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is an association of producers, processors and large grain exporters who annually export about 90% of Ukrainian grain products.
