In the short term, prices for Ukrainian soybeans will depend on the situation in the global energy market and oil prices, which determine market conditions in the biofuel sector, according to the analytical cooperative “Push,” established within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
Analysts noted that export prices for Ukrainian soybeans are now significantly higher than at the start of the season. While soybeans were sold for approximately $390–395 per ton in September–November, current prices at ports have reached $450–460 per ton for GMO soybeans and $475 per ton for non-GMO soybeans, which is $60–70 per ton higher than at the start of the season.
“If prices rise by another $10–15 per ton, we could effectively be looking at a nearly $100 increase for the season,” experts noted.
Despite the attractive price conditions, the pace of Ukrainian soybean exports is gradually slowing down. According to analysts, shipment volumes stand at about 48,000 tons, which is significantly lower compared to the start of the marketing year, due to the impact of a 10% export duty, a reduction in domestic stocks, and the high cost of Ukrainian products on global markets.
“Ukrainian soybeans continue to lead in price in key markets. For example, in the Turkish market, they cost nearly $500 per ton, while Brazilian soybeans trade at $470–480 per ton,” the experts explained.
At the same time, prices remain high in the domestic market due to limited supply. According to analysts’ estimates, soybean stocks may fall below 1 million tons in May, which would mean that last year’s harvest has been almost completely depleted.
“Processors will need to operate until the new harvest, so they may be willing to pay a high price. It is possible that processors could raise soybean prices above 21,000 UAH/ton,” the cooperative believes.
At the same time, short-term market conditions will largely depend on the situation in the global energy market. In particular, soybean prices traditionally correlate with oil prices, as soybean oil is widely used in biodiesel production.
Short-term price fluctuations or even price declines are possible in the market in March and the first half of April. At the same time, in the medium term, the market will remain stable due to limited crop stocks and steady demand from domestic processors, concluded “Pushk.”
Prices for wheat in the ports of Greater Odessa (CPT port basis) began to rise this week, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
According to monitoring data, as of March 11, 2026, traders’ prices for class 2 wheat most often range from 10,600 to 11,000 UAH/ton CPT port, which is 100-150 UAH/ton higher than at the end of the previous week. In dollar terms, demand prices also rose and amounted to $215-225/ton CPT port.
According to analysts, prices were supported by the rise in grain prices on a FOB basis amid increased demand and restrained sales by farmers, as well as the devaluation of the national currency against the dollar.
“Individual export-oriented companies declared lower prices due to the lack of need to urgently form volumes to fulfill previously concluded contracts,” the agency stated.
The Romanian government has announced the acquisition of 100% of the shares of Danube Logistics, the operator of the Giurgiulești International Free Port in the Republic of Moldova, from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
The Moldovan Ministry of Economy has confirmed the legality of the transaction, emphasizing that it concerns only the private port operator and does not affect state-owned land. Final approval of the price is expected on February 11, 2026.
The Romanian side plans to invest more than €24 million in the modernization and development of Giurgiulești’s infrastructure: the goal is to integrate the port into Romania’s logistics network, expand its capacity, and strengthen the region’s role in the Danube and Black Sea transport corridors.
The port of Giurgiulești is located on a short section of Moldova’s access to the Danube, near the border with Romania and Ukraine, and is Moldova’s only port with access to sea and river routes.
The EBRD has previously noted the port’s strategic importance for Moldova’s foreign trade (over 70% of water import and export flows) and its potential as a hub that could be in demand for regional logistics, including future projects to rebuild Ukraine.
The total volume of cargo handled by Ukraine’s water logistics in 2025 decreased to 76.1 million tons, according to Deputy Prime Minister for the Restoration of Ukraine – Minister of Community and Territorial Development Oleksiy Kuleba, which is 21.7% less than the previously announced results for 2024.
“In 2025, water logistics remained one of the key areas of export and import. The total volume of transshipment through water logistics for the year amounted to 76.1 million tons of cargo, of which 67.8 million tons were provided by the ports of Greater Odessa,” Kuleba wrote on Telegram on Wednesday.
Based on data for 2024, the reduction in transshipment in the ports of Greater Odessa amounted to 15.1%.
As Kuleba noted, since the launch of the maritime corridor in August 2023, 163 million tons of cargo have been transported, including 100 million tons of agricultural products.
The deputy prime minister specified that more than 8.2 million tons of cargo were transshipped through the Danube ports of Izmail, Reni, and Ust-Dunaysk during the year, while in 2024 this figure was 17.3 million tons.
Kuleba noted that the Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company saw a 3.8-fold increase in the average number of caravans, a 43% increase in average monthly transport volumes, a twofold increase in the share of return cargo, and a 1.5-fold reduction in operating losses.
Separately, the Deputy Prime Minister for Recovery added that the port of Chornomorsk has begun preparing public-private partnership projects with a potential investment of up to $300 million.
In addition, $35 million in grant funding has been attracted under the RELINC program for the development of Danube ports and inland waterways, as well as EUR50 million in EU funding for the modernization of port and logistics infrastructure, Kuleba emphasized.
In 2023, Ukrainian seaports handled 62 million tons of cargo, of which 56.3 million tons were for export.
In 2024, according to the State Enterprise “Administration of Seaports of Ukraine,” Ukrainian ports handled 97.2 million tons of cargo.
This week, the Ukrainian market continued to see a gradual decline in feed corn prices on a FOB Black Sea basis, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
“Prices remained under pressure throughout the week due to slow sea export rates as a result of systematic attacks by the Russian Federation on Ukraine’s port and energy infrastructure, which led to shipment disruptions, which, in turn, restrained importers’ demand,” analysts said.
At the same time, they noted that corn remains the most active export crop for Ukraine, but this has not been able to offset the factors putting pressure on prices.
Indicative bid/ask prices for feed corn with delivery in December-January from Black Sea ports fell by 1-3 USD/ton in less than a week under the influence of these factors to 210-218 and 214-222 USD/ton, respectively, according to APK-Inform.
The difficult situation in the ports of Odessa and logistics problems are limiting activity in the oilseed sector in Ukraine, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
“Russian army missile attacks on Ukrainian ports, damage to terminals, warehouses, and other infrastructure will cause a reduction in shipments in the coming months and may destabilize the situation on the global agricultural market,” analysts explained.
They noted that last week, price growth on the Ukrainian soybean export market stalled, which was due to both missile attacks on ports and pressure from the global market, despite the fact that demand for Ukrainian soybeans remained quite high and export rates grew in the first half of December.
Experts added that demand prices for GM soybeans in Ukrainian ports remained at their highest levels since August 2024 – $420-425 per ton (CPT port).
“The European Union has finally postponed the implementation of the EUDR regulation for another year, which will allow companies to increase supplies of soybeans and soybean meal in this direction,” APK-Inform predicts.
