According to Experts.news, Ukraine’s construction industry has shown mixed trends based on preliminary results for the first half of 2026: following growth in 2023–2025, the sector has faced a slowdown in the volume of work, rising construction costs, a labor shortage, and a shift in demand toward housing and infrastructure reconstruction.
The State Statistics Service has not yet released final data for January–June, so a current assessment can be made based on statistics for the first four months, data on housing completions in the first quarter, the “eOselya” and “eVidnovlennia” programs, as well as construction companies’ expectations for the second quarter.
According to the State Statistics Service, the volume of construction work completed in Ukraine in January–April 2026 decreased by 2% compared to the same period in 2025 and amounted to 59.3 billion UAH. At the same time, in April compared to April 2025, construction had already shown a 2.8% increase; specifically, residential construction rose by 5.8%, civil engineering structures by 9.7%, while non-residential construction declined by 7.4%. New construction accounted for 47.8% of the total in April, repairs for 29%, and reconstruction and other work for 23.2%.
By comparison, in 2025, the volume of construction work completed in Ukraine rose by 11.3% to 258.2 billion UAH, but the growth rate was already slowing down at that time, following 17.8% growth in 2024 and 31.8% in 2023. In 2025, residential construction grew by 13.5%, nonresidential construction by 25.4%, and civil engineering by only 3.1%.
“In the first half of 2026, the construction sector effectively transitioned from a phase of rapid post-shock recovery to a phase of selective growth. Housing, renovations, engineering infrastructure, and reconstruction-related projects remain the most resilient. At the same time, commercial non-residential construction remains weaker due to war risks, more expensive financing, and uncertainty for investors,” noted Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center and candidate of economic sciences.
The residential segment appears more stable than the overall industry trend. In the first quarter of 2026, housing completions in Ukraine decreased by only 0.1% year-over-year, to 2.289 million square meters. During this period, 29,600 apartments were completed, which is 4.3% more than in the first quarter of 2025. The largest volumes of housing completions were recorded in the Lviv, Odesa, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia, and Ternopil regions, while in Kyiv, 289,000 square meters of housing—or 4,900 apartments—were completed.
Government programs remain one of the key sources of demand for housing. According to the Ministry of Economy, as of June 22, 2026, 4,104 Ukrainian families had taken advantage of the “eOselya” program since the beginning of the year, receiving preferential mortgage loans totaling nearly 7.7 billion UAH. In just one week in June, 157 loans totaling 313 million UAH were issued, with the majority of new loans going toward first-time home purchases.
The “eVidnovlennia” program plays an even more important role for the construction market. As of June 2026, 206,447 Ukrainian families had received assistance for repairing or purchasing new housing, totaling 103.9 billion UAH. More than 138,000 families received payments to repair damaged homes, nearly 65,000 families received housing certificates for destroyed property, and a separate program for rebuilding on private land is already being funded through tranches.
At the same time, the industry is facing significant price pressure. According to the summary table of price indices for construction and installation work, in April 2026, the construction price index stood at 103.1% compared to March, following 109.4% in March, 101.8% in February, and 101.1% in January. The cumulative figure for the first four months of 2026 was 116.1%, indicating a significant increase in the cost of labor and materials.
Business expectations among construction companies remain cautious. According to a State Statistics Service survey for the second quarter of 2026, the business confidence indicator in construction improved by 1.9 percentage points compared to the first quarter but remained deeply negative at minus 25.7%. The current order volume was estimated at minus 41.5%, and expectations regarding the number of employees stood at minus 9.9%. Companies cited labor shortages, financial constraints, and other factors as the main limiting factors, while their order backlog was estimated to cover an average of six months of work.
At the macro level, the country’s recovery remains the industry’s main long-term driver. According to estimates by the World Bank, the Ukrainian government, the European Commission, and the UN, Ukraine’s needs for recovery and reconstruction over the next ten years are already estimated at nearly $588 billion. Direct losses reached $195 billion, with the housing, transportation, and energy sectors hardest hit. Damages to the housing sector alone are estimated at approximately $61 billion, and about 14% of the housing stock has been damaged or destroyed.
According to Experts Club’s assessment, in the second half of 2026, Ukraine’s construction industry will remain dependent on three key factors: the security situation, access to financing, and the stability of government recovery programs. Residential projects in hinterland regions, the reconstruction of damaged housing, engineering infrastructure, the energy resilience of communities, social housing, and critical infrastructure facilities will have the greatest potential.
“The Ukrainian construction sector cannot be assessed solely based on the current index of completed work. It is no longer just an economic sector, but one of the key tools for survival, the return of people, the recovery of communities, and the country’s future investment attractiveness. But the transition from repairs to large-scale modernization requires long-term financing, insurance against war risks, transparent project pipelines, and skilled personnel,” emphasized Maksym Urakin.
Thus, the first half of 2026 for Ukraine’s construction industry can be preliminarily assessed as a period of stabilization following the rapid growth of previous years. The market is not showing a uniform upturn, but it has significant structural demand related to housing, reconstruction, infrastructure, and future post-war reconstruction. For businesses, this means a shift toward more selective competition—companies with access to financing, qualified personnel, a transparent cost estimation framework, and the ability to work with government and international reconstruction programs will come out on top.
CONSTRUCTION, EXPERTS CLUB, HOUSING, INFRASTRUCTURE, RECONSTRUCTION, URAKIN
Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction will create a massive market for the construction sector, industry, and related sectors; however, Ukrainian companies need to start preparing now to compete with international contractors, according to Andriy Ozeychuk, director of Rauta and chairman of the board of directors of the Ukrainian Steel Construction Center Association.
In his column for The Page, he noted that once the war ends, demand for construction will be significant from the general public, the government, and the business sector alike. According to estimates by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there are about 8 million Ukrainians abroad who fled during the full-scale invasion, and the UN forecasts the return of 3–3.5 million people once lasting peace and security guarantees are in place.
According to the expert, a significant portion of those who return, as well as internally displaced persons, will need new housing or the restoration of damaged homes. At the same time, reconstruction will not be limited to the housing stock. According to estimates by the Kyiv School of Economics, residential buildings account for only about one-third of the direct losses from the war, while significant losses were also sustained by transportation and energy infrastructure, corporate assets, industry, and the agri-industrial complex.
Ozeychuk notes that, according to World Bank estimates, Ukraine’s reconstruction will require more than EUR500 billion over the next decade. This is nearly three times Ukraine’s GDP in 2025 and creates significant opportunities not only for the construction sector but also for the entire economy.
In his estimation, every hryvnia invested in construction has a multiplier effect and stimulates 1.5 to 3 times greater growth in related sectors. Examples include the postwar reconstruction of Germany and South Korea, where the construction sector became one of the catalysts for economic growth.
The expert identifies the main sources of funding for large-scale projects as direct financial assistance from international partners—including the G7, the EU, and the U.S.—the attraction of large private investments backed by state guarantees, as well as reparations and confiscated frozen assets of the Russian Federation. Ukraine’s European integration should serve as an additional incentive, as it will eventually open access to specialized EU development funds.
At the same time, Ukrainian construction companies may already face stiff competition from European players. According to Ozeychuk, the most realistic scenario would be a consortium model in which a European general contractor would work alongside Ukrainian subcontractors and use local materials certified to European EN standards.
Under this scenario, foreign companies could be involved in high-tech work, while Ukrainian businesses would handle local logistics, specialized work, and the construction of utility networks, roads, and capital construction projects.
The expert identifies financing conditions as the main barrier for Ukrainian companies. While in Ukraine construction is often carried out using substantial advance payments, the EU commonly uses a post-audit payment model—based on the completion of specific project phases. This requires significant working capital, whereas Ukrainian companies have limited access to low-cost long-term loans.
To level the playing field, Ozeychuk believes the government should launch programs for affordable long-term loans backed by state guarantees, provide preferential financing for the modernization of Ukrainian building materials plants, simplify the adoption of EN standards, and advocate for Ukrainian businesses’ participation in international grant programs.
A separate challenge will be the construction industry’s transition to European design standards. By 2028, the Ukrainian system is expected to fully integrate into the European space and adopt Eurocodes. This will remove some barriers for foreign engineers but will also require Ukrainian specialists to rapidly upgrade their qualifications.
Among the technological trends in reconstruction, the expert cites BIM modeling, digital twins of buildings, energy-efficient solutions, and the concept of net-zero energy buildings. In his assessment, the market will shift toward rapid modular construction, eco-friendly materials, and innovative solutions.
Another key constraint will be a labor shortage. According to Ozeychuk, demobilized military personnel and men returning from abroad will only partially offset the labor shortage. High demand could lead to rising wages in construction, particularly for blue-collar jobs, and could also encourage the retraining of specialists from other sectors, as well as the more active involvement of women, veterans, and older workers.
In addition, Ukrainian companies are already beginning to collaborate with agencies that specialize in the official recruitment of construction workers from South Asian countries, including India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.
Ozeychuk believes that the two main principles of the future reconstruction are speed of implementation and the “Build Back Better” approach—that is, rebuilding to a higher standard than before the destruction. It is precisely these criteria that will determine the demand for modern materials, technologies, and production capacity in Ukraine.
Rauta is a Ukrainian company operating in the field of prefabricated buildings, facade and roofing systems, sandwich panels, and steel construction. The “Ukrainian Center for Steel Construction” Association brings together companies working in the segments of metal structures, building materials, design, and industrial construction.
CONSTRUCTION, Eurocode, INVESTMENT, OZEYCHUK, RAUTA, RECONSTRUCTION
Serbian companies are interested and have the potential to participate in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, particularly in transportation infrastructure, energy, residential construction, and industrial facilities, said Marko Čadež, President of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
“Once the war ends, Ukraine will become Europe’s largest construction site, and Serbian companies are interested and have the potential to participate in the restoration of transport infrastructure, energy and residential facilities, as well as industrial enterprises,” Čadež said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
According to him, the potential for cooperation includes construction companies, manufacturers of building materials, manufacturers of transformers for the energy sector, manufacturers of agricultural machinery, as well as companies that possess technologies for the restoration and modernization of industry.
Čadež noted that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has already expressed Serbia’s readiness to participate in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction—specifically in rebuilding one or two cities or a small region.
“Through contacts with the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Ukrainian Embassy in Belgrade, Serbian entrepreneurs are already expressing their readiness to contribute by supplying their products, for example, to meet the needs of the energy sector,” noted the president of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/interview/1169380.html
President of Serbia, RECONSTRUCTION, Serbian companies, UKRAINE
The total cost of rebuilding and reconstructing Ukraine over the next 10 years is estimated at $588 billion, which is $64 billion more than last year and almost three times the nominal GDP for 2025, according to the Ministry of Community and Territorial Development of Ukraine.
According to the fifth assessment of damage and needs (RDNA5) presented by the ministry and the World Bank, the largest amount of investment is needed in the transport sector — more than $96 billion over a decade to modernize roads, railways, and ports. The needs of the housing sector are estimated at $90 billion (14% of the housing stock has been destroyed or damaged), and those of the energy and water sectors at $17.5 billion.
“We need $15.25 billion to implement priority projects in 2026. We have secured $5.8 billion in funding, but the shortfall remains critical at $9.5 billion,” the ministry quoted Deputy Prime Minister for Recovery and Minister of Community and Territorial Development Oleksiy Kuleba as saying.
According to the ministry, the heat supply sector remains critically underfunded: with a need of $1.6 billion for 2026, less than 1% of the funding has been secured. There is also a significant shortage of funds in the energy, housing construction, and transport sectors, where only a third of the needs are currently covered.
The Ministry of Development reminded that three key priorities have been identified in the context of the war: energy security of communities (protection of facilities and distributed generation), housing restoration, and logistics support.
An installation with an anti-drone net became a symbolic element of the report presentation. The ministry emphasized that hundreds of kilometers of roads in frontline regions are already equipped with such protective structures.
The RDNA5 report was prepared jointly with the World Bank, the European Commission, and the UN. It covers the period from February 24, 2022, to December 31, 2025.
The state-owned enterprise Lisy Ukrainy plans to implement more than 60 projects for the construction and reconstruction of forest roads with a total length of more than 200 km in 2026, the company’s press service reported.
“Only paved roads can ensure stable production in any season. Our investment plan is aimed at ensuring energy independence and uninterrupted timber supplies, especially during the spring mud season, which usually paralyzes traffic on dirt roads,” the state-owned enterprise wrote on its Facebook page.
According to the plan, the largest number of facilities are planned in the Carpathian (19), Polissya (15), and Capital (11) forest offices. New construction is also planned in the Northern, Podolsk, and Central regions. The projects involve the creation of roadways and the construction of intermediate warehouses for the storage, sorting, and shipment of forest products.
As an example of the economic effect, the company cited the Ozernyansky Forestry (Ivano-Frankivsk region), where, thanks to the new road, the annual harvest will increase from 15,000 cubic meters to 17,000 cubic meters. In the Zhubrovitsa Forestry (Zhytomyr region), construction will allow 1,000 hectares of the Forest Fund, which were previously only accessible during periods of frost or drought, to be used for economic activities.
In addition to production indicators, the projects have social significance. In particular, in the Lyuboml district of Volyn, a new road between the villages of Borove and Sokol will shorten the route for local residents by 15 km, which will significantly facilitate logistics and access to firewood.
CONSTRUCTION, forest roads, Forests of Ukraine, RECONSTRUCTION
Participants in the Green Reconstruction and Green Energy panel at the Rebuilding Ukraine: Security, Opportunities, Investments forum in the Romanian capital concluded that the modernization and decarbonization of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure must go hand in hand with digitalization, the development of smart cities, and deeper integration into the EU energy space.
The panel was moderated by Corneliu Bodea, president of the Romanian Energy Center, who outlined the need for profound transformations of energy systems to transition to a low-carbon model. The key speaker was Bogdan-Gruia Ivan, Romania’s Minister of Energy, who set the strategic guidelines for the discussion. The discussion was also joined by George Agafitei, Head of Sustainable Development and Institutional Relations at PPC Group; Vitaly Radchenko, Head of Energy and Climate Change Practice at CMS Ukraine; Nicolas Richard, CEO of Engie Romania; Gheorghe Chubotar, President of Electroalfa International; and Eduard Dumitrascu, President of the Romanian Smart City Association.
The speakers noted that urban digitalization and energy modernization projects, in particular smart city initiatives, have become important catalysts for the renewal of local energy systems and municipal infrastructure. They emphasized that Ukraine should not be underestimated in terms of technological solutions: businesses and government agencies are highly receptive to the implementation of digital tools, from artificial intelligence to network infrastructure optimization. “Ukraine has already demonstrated its ability to quickly transition to new digital platforms. This makes it possible to build a modern energy sector rather than a ‘patched-up’ one,” Radchenko noted.
Participants emphasized that Ukraine is undergoing an intensive phase of legislative reforms and convergence with European standards in the fields of energy, ecology, and market regulation. This creates conditions for more effective coordination between central authorities and local levels, as well as for the implementation of joint projects with EU countries, with an emphasis on inter-state interconnectors, network balancing, and strengthening regional energy security. “Aligning rules with European ones is not only a requirement for integration, but also a prerequisite for attracting investors to long-term ‘green’ projects,” Ivan emphasized.
A separate part of the discussion was devoted to rethinking the architecture of energy networks in the direction of decentralization, flexibility, and increasing opportunities for electricity flows between countries. Participants recalled that Ukraine is already working in sync with the European energy system and is increasing the volume of electricity and gas exchanges with EU countries. In their opinion, Ukraine’s “green” transformation requires not only the physical reconstruction of generation and network assets, but also the formation of a new culture of innovation capable of attracting strategic investments and the most advanced technologies.
In this context, cooperation between European and Ukrainian energy and technology ecosystems was described as a fundamental element of regional energy sustainability. Participants called green reconstruction a historic opportunity to form a more sustainable, digitized, and EU-integrated Ukrainian economy. The panel concluded that, despite the challenges, close cooperation and coordinated investment by the state, business, and international partners is the only realistic path to an effective, future-oriented reconstruction of the energy sector.
The forum “Rebuilding Ukraine: Security, Opportunities, Investments” is being held on December 11-12 in Bucharest under the auspices of the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and is organized by the New Strategy Center. According to the organizers, more than 30 panel discussions and parallel sessions are planned over two days with the participation of representatives of governments, international organizations, the private sector, financial institutions, and experts from Europe, North America, and Asia. The topics of the panels cover security and defense, infrastructure, financing and investment, green energy, digitalization, human capital, and cross-border cooperation.
DIGITALIZATION, energy market, EU, INTEGRATION, RECONSTRUCTION
