On August 13, the Romanian state-owned company Nuclearelectrica began a controlled shutdown of the second power unit at the Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant due to a prolonged drop in the water level of the Danube, leaving the country’s only nuclear power plant temporarily without any operating reactors.
Nuclearelectrica’s official announcement was sent to the Bucharest Stock Exchange on August 13. The company notes that the decision was made due to a “significant and prolonged drop in water levels in the Danube,” based on forecasts from Romania’s National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management (INHGA).
The procedure for the controlled reduction of Unit 2’s output began this morning. Nuclearelectrica Director Romeo Urian previously reported that output is expected to drop to zero around noon, after which the unit will be disconnected from the national power grid.
Chernavoda’s Unit 1 was shut down for the same reason on July 28. At that time, Nuclearelectrica also attributed this decision to the unprecedentedly low water level in the Danube caused by a severe drought.
Each of the two operating CANDU-type reactors has a capacity of about 706 MW. Together, under normal operating conditions, they account for approximately 20% of Romania’s electricity production.
The water situation remains extremely challenging. According to INHGA data as of the morning of August 13, the Danube’s flow rate at its entry into Romania near Băziaș was only 1,350,000 cubic meters per second.
The long-term average for August is about 3,900 cubic meters per second. Thus, the current flow rate corresponds to only about 35% of the typical August level.
Most importantly, the official hydrological forecast does not yet predict a significant recovery.
This means that even if the Danube’s level stabilizes at current levels, there is still insufficient basis for a rapid return of the nuclear units to operation.
Prior to the shutdown of Unit 2, Romanian authorities took extraordinary engineering measures to divert more water toward Cernavodă.
In one section, controlled blasting was carried out on a rocky obstacle, the riverbed was deepened, and four barges loaded with rocks were deliberately sunk to partially redirect water from the Bala branch into the main channel of the Danube.
These measures yielded temporary results. After the barges were sunk, the water level in the Cernavodă area was approximately 8 cm higher than the projected trajectory, which allowed the second reactor to remain operational for several more days.
However, in the long term, it was not possible to compensate for the lack of water through engineering measures.
For the recovery of Cernavoda, what matters is not so much local precipitation directly near the plant as it is rainfall across a large area of the upper and middle Danube basin—primarily in Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, and further downstream.
The current 10-day forecast shows the first noticeable change in weather in the upper part of the basin on August 18. Thunderstorms are forecast for Vienna on August 17, and rain on August 21. Heavy rain is expected in Bratislava on August 17, followed by localized thunderstorms on August 18.
However, further downstream, the situation is less favorable. No significant precipitation is currently forecast for Budapest through August 22. Belgrade is also expected to experience mostly dry and hot weather.
In Černavoda itself, the forecast through August 22 is almost entirely dry, and after August 17, temperatures may rise above 30 degrees again.
Based on a combination of hydrological and meteorological forecasts, no significant improvement is expected by August 20.
Optimistic scenario: Heavy rainfall will occur in Austria and Slovakia on August 17–18, a new weather front will arrive around August 21, after which the Danube’s water level will begin to rise noticeably. In that case, the technical conditions for preparing the restart may be met around August 23–26.
The baseline scenario is that precipitation will be moderate and will only halt the further decline in water levels. In that case, a restart is more likely in the last week of August, around August 26–31.
The negative scenario is that rains will be localized, and the heat will persist in the middle and lower reaches. In that case, both units may remain offline into early September.
To compensate for the lost generation, the authorities will utilize several sources.
The Ministry of Energy is counting on an increase in wind power generation: in the coming days, average capacity is estimated at approximately 525 MW, and during certain periods it may reach 1.56 GW.
In addition, the 330-MW Rovinari 4 coal-fired power unit has been placed on standby, and Hidroelectrica is expected to provide at least about 300 MW of available additional capacity within the limits of existing hydropower resources. Romania has also begun purchasing electricity from Ukraine.
The total cross-border transmission capacity of the Romanian power grid for imports is approximately 4 GW. The authorities are considering, in particular, electricity supplies from southern Europe via Bulgaria.
At the same time, the shutdown of “Cernavodă” increases price risks.
According to “Serbian Economist,” the Romanian company JT Grup Oil has received approval to build a new oil products terminal on the Danube near the port of Tisovica-Dubova, not far from Orșova in Mehedinți County, the company reported in a filing published on the Bucharest Stock Exchange.
The project involves the construction of four above-ground storage tanks for liquid fuel, as well as the engineering and logistics infrastructure necessary for the receipt, storage, and transshipment of petroleum products.
JT Grup Oil views the new facility as part of a larger regional logistics system. The Danube terminal is planned to be integrated with the company’s new terminal in the port of Constanța on the Black Sea.
According to the company, the platform being developed is intended to serve the markets of Romania, Hungary, Serbia, Austria, and Ukraine, leveraging both Black Sea logistics capabilities and the international transport corridor along the Danube.
Thus, fuel will be able to arrive via Constanta by sea and then be distributed throughout Central and Southeastern Europe using river, rail, and road transport.
For Serbia, the new facility is of particular interest due to its location on the Danube, relatively close to the Serbian border. Additional storage and transshipment capacity for petroleum products could expand fuel supply options to the Serbian market and enhance the Danube’s role in regional energy logistics.
For Ukraine, the project also creates an additional route for importing petroleum products via Romania. Since 2022, Romanian ports—primarily Constanța—have significantly increased their importance for Ukrainian trade and fuel supplies.
At the same time, JT Grup Oil is completing another major infrastructure project—the JT Terminal in the port of Constanța.
The terminal has already passed technical trials, and its commercial operation is scheduled to begin in October 2026, following the completion of all necessary procedures and the receipt of permits.
JT Grup Oil’s strategy effectively involves creating a Constanta–Danube–Central Europe logistics corridor.
The Black Sea terminal is intended to handle imported petroleum products arriving by sea, while the new facility near Orșova will bring fuel supplies closer to the markets of Serbia, Hungary, and Austria and utilize the Danube for further transportation.
“By developing the terminal in Constanta and the terminal in the Orsova area, the company aims to create an integrated logistics platform capable of effectively serving the markets of Central and Eastern Europe,” according to a statement from JT Grup Oil cited by Romanian media.
The project takes on added significance against the backdrop of the restructuring of European petroleum product supply routes and the region’s countries’ efforts to diversify their transportation infrastructure.
JT Grup Oil operates in the Romanian wholesale fuel trade and distribution market. The company’s shares are traded on the AeRO market of the Bucharest Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol JTG.
Transgaz, the Romanian gas transmission system operator, has signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. company Argent LNG, which provides for the possibility of investing in the construction of a large LNG terminal in Louisiana.
The project will have a capacity of 25 million metric tons of LNG per year, or approximately 35 billion cubic meters of gas. The first deliveries are expected in 2030.
One of the main goals is to establish a long-term supply route for American gas through Romania to Moldova and Ukraine, and further on to Hungary, Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Germany.
The project is intended to strengthen the so-called Vertical Gas Corridor, which is gradually becoming one of the key routes for supplying non-Russian gas to Central and Eastern Europe.
The corridor connects the gas transmission systems of Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Moldova. It can be used to transport both Azerbaijani gas and LNG from the U.S., which arrives via the Revithoussa and Alexandroupolis terminals in Greece.
For the Balkans, the project is significant because it provides the region with another major source of gas and fosters additional competition among supply routes. The more American and other non-Russian LNG that flows through Greece and Romania, the more the gas infrastructure of all of Southeast Europe will change.
Moldova has already tested this route: U.S. LNG was delivered via Greece and then injected into Ukrainian underground storage facilities.
Transgaz also controls 75% of the Moldovan gas transmission system operator Westmoldtransgaz.
Romanian authorities plan to conduct a controlled sinking of four barges loaded with rocks in the Bala branch of the Danube to redirect more water to the Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant and prevent the shutdown of its only operating reactor unit.
The operation is scheduled to begin on August 5 after 2:00 p.m. The barges are intended to form a temporary underwater dam and divert part of the flow from the Bala branch to the Old Danube, from where water enters the nuclear power plant’s cooling system. Authorities expect to raise the water level near the plant by 10–12 cm.
Currently, only Power Unit No. 2 is operating at “Cernavodă.” The first of the two reactors was shut down last week due to critically low water levels in the Danube. Under normal conditions, the plant’s two units account for about one-fifth of Romania’s electricity production.
Before flooding the barges, the Romanian military carried out a controlled demolition of part of the Pirjoaia underwater rock formation, which had been hindering the redistribution of the river’s flow. Following this intervention, the drop in water levels near the plant temporarily ceased. Previously, the Danube’s water level in this area had been falling by approximately 2–3 cm per day.
As of the morning of August 5, the water flow at the Danube’s entry into Romania was approximately 1,450 cubic meters per second. By August 7, this figure could drop to 1,400 cubic meters per second—nearly one-third of the long-term average for August, which stands at 3,900 cubic meters.
As early as August 1, representatives of the National Administration “Waters of Romania” warned that without emergency measures, the second power unit would be able to operate at its maximum capacity for only four to five days. If the water level drops below operational thresholds, the reactor will be shut down in a controlled manner in accordance with safety procedures.
At the same time, dredging operations are continuing in the Old Danube–Bala Branch section. Specialists must remove some of the debris left over from the explosion and secure the submerged barges, as the current could displace them and reduce the effectiveness of the temporary dam.
Romania has declared a state of energy readiness for August. Due to reduced output at nuclear power plants and other power stations, the country has increased electricity imports and called on businesses, government agencies, and the public to reduce consumption during peak-load hours.
The critically low water level of the Danube is causing problems not only for Romania. The Paks Nuclear Power Plant in Hungary has also sharply reduced production: three of the four turbines were shut down, and the remaining one was operating at only a fraction of its capacity.
Romania’s Nuclearelectrica plans to use electricity imported from Ukraine to cover the shortfall caused by the shutdown of the first power unit at the Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant and, accordingly, to mitigate the impact of this shortfall on the Romanian electricity market, the company announced on Facebook on Monday.
“Nuclearelectrica is purchasing electricity from Ukraine; this purchase is being carried out with the support of Energocom, an electricity supplier from the Republic of Moldova,” Nuclearelectrica noted.
According to the company, the energy situation in Romania has been complicated by a severe drought and falling water levels in rivers, particularly the Danube. The first power unit at the Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant was shut down as scheduled a week ago.
In addition, as Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar previously reported, due to record-low water levels in the Danube, Hungary will be forced to completely shut down the country’s only nuclear power plant—Paks—for the first time in the plant’s 44-year history. The shutdown, he said, could last several weeks.
The Paks Nuclear Power Plant generates nearly half of all of Hungary’s electricity—its shutdown could lead to a serious power shortage.
As previously reported, between July 20 and 26, Hungary remained the primary destination for Ukrainian electricity exports, with 22,500 MWh (40% of total exports) supplied there.
Exports to Moldova totaled 19,600 MWh (34.8%), and to Romania, 11,100 MWh (19.7%).
Overall, Ukraine maintained its status as a net exporter of electricity for three consecutive weeks from July 6 to July 26; specifically, from July 20 to July 26, the volume of Ukrainian electricity exports exceeded imports by 70%.
Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey have agreed to expand the mission of the joint Black Sea Mine Countermeasures Task Group by adding the protection of critical infrastructure to its mandate.
The agreement was reached during the NATO summit in Ankara. This involves expanding the authority of the Mine Countermeasures Black Sea Task Group, which had previously focused primarily on locating and neutralizing mines in the Black Sea.
According to Reuters, the new mandate calls for the protection of energy and telecommunications facilities and undersea pipelines owned or operated by the three countries.
The Romanian Ministry of Defense stated that protecting critical infrastructure in the Black Sea requires a comprehensive, integrated, and long-term approach. The ministry also noted that a memorandum establishing the mine countermeasures security group was signed on January 11, 2024, by the defense ministers of Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey.
The joint group became the first trilateral initiative of its kind among the three NATO countries with access to the Black Sea. Its initial task was to improve the safety of navigation following the appearance of drifting mines in the sea as a result of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
According to Reuters, the group has already neutralized more than 150 mines since its creation. The expansion of its mandate reflects growing concerns among countries in the region regarding the security of maritime infrastructure, particularly against the backdrop of developing gas projects in the Black Sea.
For Ukraine, this decision is of direct importance, as Black Sea security affects shipping, export routes, energy infrastructure, and the overall naval situation in the region. Stronger coordination between Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey also signals greater NATO focus on the Black Sea region.
BLACK SEA, BULGARIA, DEFENSE, INFRASTRUCTURE, ROMANIA, TURKEY
