According to Experts.news, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has sharply raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending stocks of wheat and feed grain for the 2026/27 season—to a total of nearly 12 million metric tons.
In the USDA’s July forecast, ending stocks for these two groups were estimated at approximately 6.26 million metric tons, while in the August WASDE report, the figure rose to 11.93 million metric tons. Thus, in just one month, the estimate increased by 5.67 million metric tons, or approximately 91%.
The most significant revision was made to the corn outlook.
The USDA raised its forecast for corn ending stocks from 2.06 million to 4.86 million metric tons—more than a 2.3-fold increase. This represents an increase of 2.8 million metric tons.
The reason is almost entirely due to changes in two indicators: the corn harvest forecast was increased by 1.8 million metric tons—to 31.8 million metric tons—while exports were simultaneously reduced by 1 million metric tons—to 22 million metric tons. The USDA left domestic corn consumption unchanged at 7.2 million metric tons.
As for wheat, ending stocks were increased even more in percentage terms—from 2.53 million to 4.8 million metric tons, or by approximately 90%.
For the entire feed grain group, the stock forecast was raised from 3.73 million to 7.13 million metric tons.
The USDA attributes the deterioration in export prospects to logistical disruptions resulting from the escalation of the conflict in the Azov and Black Seas.
An even more dire scenario was previously presented by the Kyiv office of the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). It expects that, if maritime logistics problems persist, Ukraine’s carryover stocks of all grain crops could approach 25 million metric tons.
According to FAS/Kyiv, the total storage capacity for grains and oilseeds in Ukraine exceeds 74 million metric tons, but certified grain warehouses provide approximately 23 million metric tons of capacity. Ukrainian authorities have also acknowledged the need for an additional 10–12 million metric tons of temporary storage capacity in the event of prolonged disruption to exports via the Black Sea.
This issue has direct economic implications for farmers. Given a large harvest and limited exports, domestic supply is increasing, which could put pressure on domestic purchase prices while simultaneously driving up costs for storage and alternative logistics.
As of August 13, the situation with the ports remains challenging: Russian attacks continue to target Ukrainian port infrastructure, particularly along the Danube corridor.
Thus, the main risk for the Ukrainian grain market in the 2026/27 season is no longer just the size of the harvest. If restrictions on maritime exports remain in place, Ukraine may face the need to store millions of metric tons of additional grain domestically.
The correction on global markets has intensified: gold has fallen sharply after recent record highs, Bitcoin has dropped to around $84,000, and the US stock market is also declining amid a sell-off in the technology sector.
According to Reuters, the spot price of gold fell more than 4% on Thursday as investors took profits after a surge to historic highs, with prices falling to around $5,150 per ounce.
Bitcoin, at current prices, is down about 5% to $85,000, with the day’s low at around $84,350.
In the US, indices also fell into negative territory: the S&P 500 was down about 1.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1%, with pressure on the market coming in particular from a sharp drop in Microsoft shares after its earnings report. The decline is also confirmed by the dynamics of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which lost about 1% on Thursday.
The volume of shares outstanding globally is shrinking at the fastest pace in 25 years as the number of offerings falls due to economic and geopolitical uncertainty while companies continue to buy back significant amounts of their securities, writes the Financial Times.
Net volume of publicly traded shares has already fallen by $120 billion this year, compared with $40 billion for the full year 2023, according to JPMorgan. The decline marks the third consecutive year of decline, which hasn’t happened since the settlement began in 1999.
According to the bank, the scale of buyback programs this year is comparable to their volumes in the previous three years. By December, according to forecasts, the total amount of buybacks could reach $1.2 trillion.
At the same time, expectations for IPOs and other equity offerings have not yet been met, the article notes.
The two trends reflect “ongoing uncertainty” among companies around the world, said Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou of JPMorgan.
Stock offerings were previously expected to increase this year as investors became more confident that the U.S. (the world’s largest stock market) could avoid an economic recession. But lingering fears that inflation could accelerate again due to strong economic growth mean that “it hasn’t really happened,” Panigirtzoglu said. “It shows that some people don’t think the worst is behind them,” he added.
Last November, analysts at JPMorgan predicted the stock market would grow by $360 billion in 2024 thanks to IPOs of new companies and buyback reductions.
Since 2000, the number of listed companies in the US has fallen from more than 7,000 to less than 4,000, according to index provider Wilshire. A similar trend has been seen in Europe and the UK.
Stock indexes in Asia are rising during trading on Tuesday, including due to good quarterly reports of companies.
Investors’ attention this week is focused on the meeting of the Federal Reserve, which, as most analysts expect, will once again raise the base rate by 0.75 percentage points (pp). Then its range will be 3.75-4% per annum.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points on Tuesday. – up to 2.85% per annum. This coincided with the forecast of most analysts, according to Trading Economics.
The Central Bank raised the rate for the seventh time in a row. It is currently at its highest since April 2013. At the same time, RBA management does not exclude its further rise to curb inflation, which remains at a high level.
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.65% on Tuesday.
Share prices of the world’s largest mining companies BHP and Rio Tinto rose by 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively.
In addition, shares of all four largest banks in the country rose in price: Commonwealth Bank – by 1.3%, ANZ Bank – by 1.6%, Westpac Banking and National Australia Bank – by 0.9%.
The value of the Japanese index Nikkei 225 to 8:31 CSK increased by 0.2%.
The stock prices of Japan Tobacco Inc. have risen most significantly. (+9.1%), NTN Corp. (+6.4%) and Panasonic (+6%).
In addition, the value of such large companies as SoftBank Group (+3.2%), Sony Group (+0.7%), Fast Retailing (+0.1%) is growing.
At the same time, the share price of Toyota Motor falls by 2.2%. The automaker in July-September reduced its net profit by 31%, while it turned out to be worse than expected.
The Chinese Shanghai Composite index increased by 1% by 8:36 am CSK. The Hong Kong Hang Seng soared 3.4% after hitting a 13.5-year low a day earlier.
The leading gainers on the Hong Kong stock exchange are China Resources Beer (+9.2%), Internet company Meituan (+8.9%), Sino Biopharmaceutical (+8.4%), and chipmaker Sunny Optical Technology Group. Co. (+8.2%).
In addition, Tencent Holdings Ltd. rose by 7.2%, retailers Alibaba Group and JD.com Inc. – respectively by 5.3% and 5.1%.
AIA Group Ltd., one of the largest Asian insurers, increased the value of new business (the volume of contracts sold) in July-September by 1%. Quotes of the company’s papers jumped by 5.9%.
The South Korean index Kospi by 8:28 KSK added 1.4%.
Quotes of securities of one of the world’s largest manufacturers of chips and electronics Samsung Electronics Co. rise by 0.7%, while the cost of automaker Hyundai Motor decreased by 0.6%.
A large Ukrainian manufacturer of feed for cats and dogs, Kormotech LLC (Prylbychi village, Lviv region), has accumulated stocks of finished products in Poland for four weeks of work, and also signed contracts for feed production in the EU in case its factories stop in Ukraine.
Such measures allow the company to guarantee the continuity of product supplies to European partners in the context of the war in Ukraine, its CEO Rostyslav Vovk said at the Forbes online conference Building Together on Friday.
According to the head, Kormotech opened a logistics center in Poland, where it keeps a stock of products corresponding to four weeks of operation of the company’s two factories located in the western regions of Ukraine – the production time and delivery to a European buyer under normal conditions. This allows “covering” orders from the EU with finished products for a month, while the company solves possible problems with production or logistics.
Vovk also emphasized that his company can guarantee the supply of dry pet food to Europeans from its factories in Ukraine even if production in the country stops due to factors caused by the Russian invasion. To do this, at the beginning of the war, Kormotech signed an agreement with its European partners for production of feed under the Kormotech brand at third-party enterprises in the EU.
“We gave our partners two options: we will work in Ukraine until the very end. As long as we can produce feed in Ukraine, we will produce it. If we have any difficulties or problems, you will receive a similar product from our European partners next month” Vovk said.
He clarified that doing business in Europe usually does not bring super profits, but it also allows for stable development over a long period.
“If you are planning to develop your business in Europe, you need to be clear that this is a long-term business – it can take months or years to sign a contract, and there are no super profits if you do not have a unique or monopoly product. On the other hand, you have a guarantee for many years that you will gradually grow and be able to plan your business processes,” the CEO of Kormotech said.
Kormotech LLC is a leading Ukrainian manufacturer of feed for cats and dogs. The company exports products to 32 countries, including the USA, UK, Germany, France, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Poland, Turkey, Iran and Chile.
Stocks of coal in the warehouses of thermal power plants of generating companies in Ukraine grew by 5.8% (by 38,300 tonnes) from January 31 to February 7, 2022, to 695,500 tonnes, according to data from the Ministry of Energy.
According to the calculations of Interfax-Ukraine, since the beginning of the year, stocks have grew by 1.6 times (as of December 31, 2021 it were 435,700 tonnes), they are also 1.8 times more than a year earlier (as of February 8 2021 it were 384,400 tonnes).
As reported, the supply of coal to the warehouses of Ukraine’s thermal power plants in January 2022 rose by 8% (by 148,200 tonnes) compared to December 2021, to 1.991 million tonnes, including 643,400 tonnes of imported coal (1.6 times more), 1.347 million tonnes of Ukrainian-made coal (6.5% less).
