The head of the Taiwanese administration Lai Tsingde on Wednesday announced plans to allocate a special budget of $40 billion for the purchase of weapons, according to the Associated Press. It is noted that this amount, in particular, includes funds for the creation of an air defense “dome”.
“Threats from China to Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region are increasing (…). Taiwan should demonstrate its determination and take greater responsibility in self-defense,” said Lai Qingde.
It is noted that the Taiwanese administration has requested this tranche separately from the annual defense budget, and this request must now be approved by Taiwan’s legislature.
The Taiwan issue arose in 1949 when the People’s Republic of China was proclaimed and part of China’s Kuomintang Party settled on the island of Taiwan, naming the island the Republic of China on Taiwan. Beijing insists on the “one China principle”, according to which it is impossible to recognize both the PRC and the Republic of China on Taiwan at the same time. At the same time, almost all major states have unofficial cultural and economic offices of Taipei.
Help from Experts Club: the ratio of PRC and Taiwan military capabilities (estimates for 2025)
Based on public estimates (GlobalFirepower, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense, budget data): Number of active military personnel
China: about 2.0-2.1 million (active NVAC personnel).
Taiwan: nearly 230,000 personnel.
Ratio: about 8-9 to 1 in favor of China.
Reserve and mobilization resource
China: about 510 thousand reservists + large para-military formations.
Taiwan: about 2.3 million reservists with a much smaller population, reliance on a massive reserve.
Air Force (general aviation)
China: about 3,300 aircraft, including about 1,200 fighters.
Taiwan: about 760 airplanes, approximately 280-300 fighters.
Ratio of fighters: about 4-5 to 1 in favor of China.
Navy (warships)
China: about 750 ships and boats, including 3 aircraft carriers, dozens of destroyers and frigates, more than 60 submarines.
Taiwan: about 100 ships and boats, no aircraft carriers, with a limited number of destroyers, frigates and submarines.
Ratio in number of fleet units: about 7-8 to 1 in favor of China, with an even larger gap in total tonnage.
Defense budgets (2025)
China: about $245-270 billion per year according to official figures.
Taiwan: about $20-21 billion (about 2.45% of GDP).
Ratio: China spends more than 10 times more on defense than Taiwan.
These figures are estimates and based on public sources, but generally reflect China’s significant quantitative superiority while Taiwan’s focus on technological saturation, defense doctrines, and alliance with the U.S. and other partners.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/kytaj-zadiyuye-czyvilni-sudna-v-navchannyah-po-tajvanyu-zmi/
China is deploying a large fleet of civilian cargo ships and ferries in exercises off its coast, rehearsing scenarios for a possible landing in Taiwan, according to a Reuters investigation based on satellite images and ship tracking data.
According to Reuters, in the summer of 2025, at least 12 civilian vessels — six car ferries and six deck cargo ships — took part in landing maneuvers on a beach near the town of Jieshen in Guangdong province. Satellite images captured the unloading of hundreds of military vehicles directly on the coast via ramps, without the use of port infrastructure.
Experts interviewed by the agency note that the civilian fleet could be a key element in a possible operation against Taiwan: according to current estimates, the PLA Navy and Marine Corps currently have enough of their own landing ships and boats to transport approximately 20,000 troops with equipment. The investigation indicates that the use of civilian vessels is part of a broader “shadow fleet” strategy, which allows the PRC to dramatically increase its landing and transport capabilities while simultaneously complicating the situation for the US Navy.
The investigation indicates that the use of civilian vessels is part of a broader “shadow fleet” strategy that allows the PRC to dramatically increase its landing and transport capabilities while making it more difficult for intelligence to assess the scale of preparations. According to Reuters, more than 100 civilian vessels have been tracked that are involved in military exercises or belong to companies that regularly participate in such maneuvers.
The article cites assessments by former Taiwanese Armed Forces Commander Li Shimin and other military experts who call the rehearsal of landings involving the civilian fleet a “significant step” toward the formation of real invasion plans. At the same time, Taiwanese officials point to the vulnerability of such ships to anti-ship and portable missiles and view the demonstrative exercises as part of a “cognitive war” aimed at putting psychological pressure on Taipei and its partners.
Reuters emphasizes that, despite the build-up of capabilities, it remains unclear whether the PLA is ready for a real amphibious operation across the Taiwan Strait: the scale of the invasion is difficult to conceal, and weather conditions, the island’s coastal terrain, and the potential response of the US and its allies make such a scenario extremely risky.
Reference from Experts Club: Comparison of the military capabilities of China and Taiwan (estimates for 2025)
According to open estimates (GlobalFirepower, Taiwan Ministry of Defense, budget data): Number of active military personnel
China: approximately 2.0–2.1 million (active PLA personnel).
Taiwan: nearly 230,000.
Ratio: approximately 8–9 to 1 in favor of China.
Reserves and mobilization resources
China: approximately 510,000 reservists + large paramilitary formations.
Taiwan: approximately 2.3 million reservists with a significantly smaller population, relying on mass reserves.
Air Force (general aviation)
China: about 3,300 aircraft, including about 1,200 fighters.
Taiwan: about 760 aircraft, about 280–300 fighters.
Fighter ratio: about 4–5 to 1 in favor of China.
Navy (combat ships)
China: about 750 ships and boats, including 3 aircraft carriers, dozens of destroyers and frigates, and over 60 submarines.
Taiwan: about 100 ships and boats, no aircraft carriers, with a limited number of destroyers, frigates, and submarines.
Ratio of fleet units: approximately 7–8 to 1 in favor of China, with an even more significant gap in total tonnage.
Defense budgets (2025)
China: approximately $245–270 billion per year according to official data.
Taiwan: approximately $20–21 billion (about 2.45% of GDP).
Ratio: China spends more than 10 times more on defense than Taiwan.
These figures are estimates based on open sources, but they generally reflect China’s significant quantitative advantage, while Taiwan focuses on technological saturation, defense doctrines, and alliances with the US and other partners.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/kytaj-zadiyuye-czyvilni-sudna-v-navchannyah-po-tajvanyu-zmi/
On Thursday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan had a negative impact on Sino-Japanese economic relations.
“Prime Minister Takaichi’s erroneous remarks on Taiwan, made in public, have fundamentally undermined the foundation of China-Japan relations and seriously damaged bilateral economic and trade ties,” Western media quoted ministry spokesman He Yongqian as saying.
“If the Japanese side continues to take such actions and continues to move in the wrong direction, China will resolutely take the necessary measures, and all the consequences will fall on Japan,” she promised.
The media reminds us that China is the second most important market for Japan. In 2024, according to the UN, China purchased $125 billion worth of Japanese goods, mainly industrial equipment, semiconductors, and automobiles.
In November, Takaichi said that an emergency situation around Taiwan involving the use of force could escalate into a “situation that threatens Japan’s survival”; the Kyodo news agency explained that in such a case, Tokyo could resort to its right to collective self-defense.
However, the Chinese authorities consider the Taiwan issue to be an internal matter for China and called on Takai to retract his statements. As a result, Beijing urged its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan and recommended that those wishing to study in that country reconsider their decision in light of the security situation. The Kyodo news agency also reported, citing a source, that China had informed Japan of the suspension of imports of Japanese seafood
. On Thursday, US Ambassador to Japan George Glass condemned these measures by the PRC and called them “economic coercion.” After meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, he assured that the US is committed to ensuring Japan’s defense, including the Diaoyu Islands (Japanese name: Senkaku) in the East China Sea, which are controlled by Tokyo. The islands are the subject of a territorial dispute between Japan and China.
According to Kyodo, 64-year-old Takaichi is known for her “hardline views on security.” In particular, she advocates revising Article 9 of the 1947 Japanese Constitution, which renounces militarism. She is also considered a supporter of ultra-right and nationalist views.
The Taiwan issue arose in 1949 when the People’s Republic of China was proclaimed and part of the Chinese Kuomintang party settled on the island of Taiwan, naming it the Republic of China on Taiwan. Beijing insists on the “one China principle,” according to which it is impossible to recognize both the PRC and the Republic of China on Taiwan at the same time. At the same time, some states have unofficial cultural and economic offices of Taipei.
According to The Guardian, Taiwan ranks first among global importers of Russian oil, a light petroleum product that is particularly in demand in the semiconductor and chemical industries, The Guardian reports, citing a study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
In the first half of 2025, Taiwan imported Russian oil worth about $1.3 billion, which is 44% more than in the same period in 2024. Average monthly imports were almost six times higher than in 2022.
The increase in imports has been observed since the start of the war in Ukraine: from February 2022 to June 2025, Taiwan imported 6.8 million tons of Russian oil worth a total of $4.9 billion, which is approximately 20% of all Russian exports of this product.
Although Taipei has formally joined the sanctions against Russia and supports Ukraine, no restrictions on imports of fossil fuels from Russia have been imposed. Experts note that the increase in purchases by Taiwan could undermine the trust of its democratic allies and intensify criticism from the international community.
Naphtha is a light liquid fraction of petroleum or a petroleum product obtained from the refining of crude oil.
It is used as a feedstock in petrochemicals, especially in the production of olefins and polymers. It can be mixed with gasoline or used in reforming processes to improve the octane rating of fuel. It is also used as a solvent in the chemical industry, for diluting heavy oils, and in the production of paints and varnishes.
Oil is particularly important for Taiwan, as the island’s economy depends on the semiconductor industry, which requires high-purity chemical components. Stable access to petroleum products ensures supply chains in electronics and microelectronics.
The results of a study conducted by Active Group and Experts Club in August 2025 showed that Ukrainians generally have a favorable attitude toward Taiwan, although a significant portion of respondents remain neutral.
Thus, 41.0% of respondents expressed a positive attitude (12.0% – completely positive, 29.0% – mostly positive). Only 7.7% gave negative assessments, while almost half — 49.0% — took a neutral position, and 2.3% admitted to being insufficiently informed about this country.
“Taiwan is perceived quite evenly in Ukrainian society, without any strong emotions. At the same time, the positive significantly outweighs the negative, which indicates the general open attitude of Ukrainians towards this important player in the global economy,” said Alexander Pozniy, head of Active Group.
Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club, noted that there is a significant imbalance in trade and economic relations between Ukraine and Taiwan:
“According to the results of January-August 2025, trade turnover amounted to about $262.1 million. At the same time, exports from Ukraine amounted to only $8.8 million, while imports from Taiwan amounted to more than $253.3 million. As a result, the negative balance exceeded $244.6 million. This indicates the weak representation of Ukrainian goods on the Taiwanese market,” he said.
Thus, Taiwan occupies an important place in Ukraine’s foreign economic relations, but mainly as a supplier of high-tech goods.
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ACTIVE GROUP, ASIA, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, TAIWAN, TRADE, UKRAINE, УРАКИН
The Philippine armed forces will defend their territorial interests in the South China Sea, said Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos.
“The Coast Guard and Navy, which defend the Philippines’ territorial interests in the South China Sea, will never retreat and will stand their ground in disputed waters after the Chinese Coast Guard carried out dangerous blocking maneuvers and used a powerful water cannon in the Scarborough Shoal area on Monday,” the Associated Press quoted Marcos as saying on Monday.
The president also noted that if the situation around Taiwan escalates, his country will inevitably be drawn into the conflict. “We don’t want war, but I think if there is war over Taiwan, we will be drawn into it, whether we want it or not,” Marcos said.
On July 3-4, according to the Philippine side, Chinese coast guard ships pursued and carried out “dangerous blocking maneuvers” against Philippine coast guard vessels and fishing boats near the Scarborough Reef off the northern coast of the Philippines. Scarborough Reef is located in disputed waters in the South China Sea and is claimed by China, the Philippines, and Taiwan.
Earlier, the information and analysis center Experts Club published a comparative analysis of the military potential of China and Taiwan – https://expertsclub.eu/porivnyalnyj-analiz-vijskovogo-potenczialu-kytayu-i-tajvanyu-vid-experts-club/
