The results of a survey conducted in March 2026 by the research company Active Group in collaboration with the Experts Club information and analytical center indicate that Ukrainians’ attitudes toward Taiwan (referred to as “a province of China”) remain predominantly neutral, despite the presence of a moderately positive segment. The share of respondents who view Taiwan positively stands at 36.6%, which is lower than the August 2025 figure (41.0%). At the same time, negative assessments have decreased slightly—to 7.2% from 7.7%.
In the breakdown of responses, only 11.4% of respondents indicated a “completely positive” attitude, while another 25.2% said “mostly positive.” At the same time, neutral assessments constitute the absolute majority—51.3%, which is one of the highest figures among the countries surveyed.
The negative segment remains relatively limited: 5.4% of respondents answered “mostly negative,” and 1.9% — “completely negative.” Another 4.9% of respondents were unable to determine their attitude.
Comparative trends show that the decline in positive perceptions occurred without a significant increase in negative ones. This means that some respondents shifted to a neutral position, which is typical for countries that do not have a strong media presence or direct influence on the daily lives of Ukrainians.
“Ukrainians tend to assess countries about which they have limited experience or information with caution. In such cases, a neutral attitude dominates, which is not a sign of indifference but rather an indication of these countries’ insufficient involvement in Ukraine’s informational and social space. At the same time, even a moderate presence of positive sentiment indicates potential for building trust in the future,” noted Oleksandr Pozniy, director of the research firm Active Group.
Thus, for Ukrainian society, Taiwan remains a country with an undefined but not negative image. The high level of neutral assessments indicates significant potential for a shift in perception, which depends primarily on the intensity of contacts, information exchange, and political visibility.
According to a study conducted by the Experts Club information and analytical center based on data from the State Customs Service, Taiwan, a province of China, ranks 31st in total trade volume of goods with Ukraine, with a figure of $650.8 million. At the same time, imports from Taiwan almost entirely dominate the structure of bilateral trade, resulting in a significant trade deficit for Ukraine of over $607 million.
The study was presented at the Interfax-Ukraine press center; the video can be viewed on the agency’s YouTube channel. The full version of the study can be found at this link on the Experts Club analytical center’s website.
ACTIVE GROUP, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, SURVEY, TAIWAN, UKRAINE, URAKIN
Chinese authorities have announced a package of measures to “expand exchanges and cooperation” with Taiwan, which includes accelerating the resumption of regular direct passenger flights across the Taiwan Strait and easing certain trade restrictions, particularly regarding the admission of some Taiwanese agricultural and fishery products to the mainland market.
According to reports, Beijing intends to “accelerate the full resumption” of regular direct flights, including routes to and from the cities of Urumqi, Xi’an, Harbin, Kunming, and Lanzhou, as well as expand support measures for the sale of Taiwanese agricultural and fishery products on the mainland while complying with quarantine requirements.
A separate item in the announced initiatives mentions plans to deepen infrastructure “integration” with the Taiwanese islands of Kinmen and Matsu—specifically, support for projects on the shared use of resources (water, electricity, gas) and the promotion of the construction of sea bridges “when conditions permit.”
In Taipei, in response to these statements, officials emphasized that any decisions on official matters regarding cross-strait relations must be made through the Taiwanese government, not through party or informal channels, calling Beijing’s initiatives politically motivated.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced sanctions against 10 individuals and 20 US defense companies in response to the latest US arms deliveries to Taiwan. This was stated in a statement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, released on Friday and quoted by Reuters.
The restrictions apply, in particular, to Boeing in St. Louis, as well as a number of other US defense contractors. The sanctions include freezing any assets of companies and individuals in China and prohibiting Chinese legal entities and individuals from doing business with them. In addition, executives on the sanctions list are barred from entering mainland China, as well as Hong Kong and Macau.
Beijing linked the decision to Washington’s approval of a large package of arms supplies to Taiwan worth more than $10 billion, including HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, artillery, and other types of weapons to strengthen the island’s defenses.
The Chinese authorities have stated that they consider US arms supplies to be interference in the internal affairs of the PRC and a violation of the “one China” principle, promising to continue to take “decisive measures” in response to the arming of Taiwan.
The Experts Club think tank previously compared the military capabilities of China and Taiwan. For more details, see https://www.youtube.com/shorts/kFdxOOC4_Ss
The head of the Taiwanese administration Lai Tsingde on Wednesday announced plans to allocate a special budget of $40 billion for the purchase of weapons, according to the Associated Press. It is noted that this amount, in particular, includes funds for the creation of an air defense “dome”.
“Threats from China to Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region are increasing (…). Taiwan should demonstrate its determination and take greater responsibility in self-defense,” said Lai Qingde.
It is noted that the Taiwanese administration has requested this tranche separately from the annual defense budget, and this request must now be approved by Taiwan’s legislature.
The Taiwan issue arose in 1949 when the People’s Republic of China was proclaimed and part of China’s Kuomintang Party settled on the island of Taiwan, naming the island the Republic of China on Taiwan. Beijing insists on the “one China principle”, according to which it is impossible to recognize both the PRC and the Republic of China on Taiwan at the same time. At the same time, almost all major states have unofficial cultural and economic offices of Taipei.
Help from Experts Club: the ratio of PRC and Taiwan military capabilities (estimates for 2025)
Based on public estimates (GlobalFirepower, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense, budget data): Number of active military personnel
China: about 2.0-2.1 million (active NVAC personnel).
Taiwan: nearly 230,000 personnel.
Ratio: about 8-9 to 1 in favor of China.
Reserve and mobilization resource
China: about 510 thousand reservists + large para-military formations.
Taiwan: about 2.3 million reservists with a much smaller population, reliance on a massive reserve.
Air Force (general aviation)
China: about 3,300 aircraft, including about 1,200 fighters.
Taiwan: about 760 airplanes, approximately 280-300 fighters.
Ratio of fighters: about 4-5 to 1 in favor of China.
Navy (warships)
China: about 750 ships and boats, including 3 aircraft carriers, dozens of destroyers and frigates, more than 60 submarines.
Taiwan: about 100 ships and boats, no aircraft carriers, with a limited number of destroyers, frigates and submarines.
Ratio in number of fleet units: about 7-8 to 1 in favor of China, with an even larger gap in total tonnage.
Defense budgets (2025)
China: about $245-270 billion per year according to official figures.
Taiwan: about $20-21 billion (about 2.45% of GDP).
Ratio: China spends more than 10 times more on defense than Taiwan.
These figures are estimates and based on public sources, but generally reflect China’s significant quantitative superiority while Taiwan’s focus on technological saturation, defense doctrines, and alliance with the U.S. and other partners.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/kytaj-zadiyuye-czyvilni-sudna-v-navchannyah-po-tajvanyu-zmi/
China is deploying a large fleet of civilian cargo ships and ferries in exercises off its coast, rehearsing scenarios for a possible landing in Taiwan, according to a Reuters investigation based on satellite images and ship tracking data.
According to Reuters, in the summer of 2025, at least 12 civilian vessels — six car ferries and six deck cargo ships — took part in landing maneuvers on a beach near the town of Jieshen in Guangdong province. Satellite images captured the unloading of hundreds of military vehicles directly on the coast via ramps, without the use of port infrastructure.
Experts interviewed by the agency note that the civilian fleet could be a key element in a possible operation against Taiwan: according to current estimates, the PLA Navy and Marine Corps currently have enough of their own landing ships and boats to transport approximately 20,000 troops with equipment. The investigation indicates that the use of civilian vessels is part of a broader “shadow fleet” strategy, which allows the PRC to dramatically increase its landing and transport capabilities while simultaneously complicating the situation for the US Navy.
The investigation indicates that the use of civilian vessels is part of a broader “shadow fleet” strategy that allows the PRC to dramatically increase its landing and transport capabilities while making it more difficult for intelligence to assess the scale of preparations. According to Reuters, more than 100 civilian vessels have been tracked that are involved in military exercises or belong to companies that regularly participate in such maneuvers.
The article cites assessments by former Taiwanese Armed Forces Commander Li Shimin and other military experts who call the rehearsal of landings involving the civilian fleet a “significant step” toward the formation of real invasion plans. At the same time, Taiwanese officials point to the vulnerability of such ships to anti-ship and portable missiles and view the demonstrative exercises as part of a “cognitive war” aimed at putting psychological pressure on Taipei and its partners.
Reuters emphasizes that, despite the build-up of capabilities, it remains unclear whether the PLA is ready for a real amphibious operation across the Taiwan Strait: the scale of the invasion is difficult to conceal, and weather conditions, the island’s coastal terrain, and the potential response of the US and its allies make such a scenario extremely risky.
Reference from Experts Club: Comparison of the military capabilities of China and Taiwan (estimates for 2025)
According to open estimates (GlobalFirepower, Taiwan Ministry of Defense, budget data): Number of active military personnel
China: approximately 2.0–2.1 million (active PLA personnel).
Taiwan: nearly 230,000.
Ratio: approximately 8–9 to 1 in favor of China.
Reserves and mobilization resources
China: approximately 510,000 reservists + large paramilitary formations.
Taiwan: approximately 2.3 million reservists with a significantly smaller population, relying on mass reserves.
Air Force (general aviation)
China: about 3,300 aircraft, including about 1,200 fighters.
Taiwan: about 760 aircraft, about 280–300 fighters.
Fighter ratio: about 4–5 to 1 in favor of China.
Navy (combat ships)
China: about 750 ships and boats, including 3 aircraft carriers, dozens of destroyers and frigates, and over 60 submarines.
Taiwan: about 100 ships and boats, no aircraft carriers, with a limited number of destroyers, frigates, and submarines.
Ratio of fleet units: approximately 7–8 to 1 in favor of China, with an even more significant gap in total tonnage.
Defense budgets (2025)
China: approximately $245–270 billion per year according to official data.
Taiwan: approximately $20–21 billion (about 2.45% of GDP).
Ratio: China spends more than 10 times more on defense than Taiwan.
These figures are estimates based on open sources, but they generally reflect China’s significant quantitative advantage, while Taiwan focuses on technological saturation, defense doctrines, and alliances with the US and other partners.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/kytaj-zadiyuye-czyvilni-sudna-v-navchannyah-po-tajvanyu-zmi/
On Thursday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan had a negative impact on Sino-Japanese economic relations.
“Prime Minister Takaichi’s erroneous remarks on Taiwan, made in public, have fundamentally undermined the foundation of China-Japan relations and seriously damaged bilateral economic and trade ties,” Western media quoted ministry spokesman He Yongqian as saying.
“If the Japanese side continues to take such actions and continues to move in the wrong direction, China will resolutely take the necessary measures, and all the consequences will fall on Japan,” she promised.
The media reminds us that China is the second most important market for Japan. In 2024, according to the UN, China purchased $125 billion worth of Japanese goods, mainly industrial equipment, semiconductors, and automobiles.
In November, Takaichi said that an emergency situation around Taiwan involving the use of force could escalate into a “situation that threatens Japan’s survival”; the Kyodo news agency explained that in such a case, Tokyo could resort to its right to collective self-defense.
However, the Chinese authorities consider the Taiwan issue to be an internal matter for China and called on Takai to retract his statements. As a result, Beijing urged its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan and recommended that those wishing to study in that country reconsider their decision in light of the security situation. The Kyodo news agency also reported, citing a source, that China had informed Japan of the suspension of imports of Japanese seafood
. On Thursday, US Ambassador to Japan George Glass condemned these measures by the PRC and called them “economic coercion.” After meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, he assured that the US is committed to ensuring Japan’s defense, including the Diaoyu Islands (Japanese name: Senkaku) in the East China Sea, which are controlled by Tokyo. The islands are the subject of a territorial dispute between Japan and China.
According to Kyodo, 64-year-old Takaichi is known for her “hardline views on security.” In particular, she advocates revising Article 9 of the 1947 Japanese Constitution, which renounces militarism. She is also considered a supporter of ultra-right and nationalist views.
The Taiwan issue arose in 1949 when the People’s Republic of China was proclaimed and part of the Chinese Kuomintang party settled on the island of Taiwan, naming it the Republic of China on Taiwan. Beijing insists on the “one China principle,” according to which it is impossible to recognize both the PRC and the Republic of China on Taiwan at the same time. At the same time, some states have unofficial cultural and economic offices of Taipei.
