The Experts Club analytical center has presented a new short video dedicated to changes in the composition of the world’s 20 largest economies by gross domestic product calculated at purchasing power parity. The analysis shows a gradual shift in the center of the global economy from North America and Western Europe toward Asia, as well as the strengthening of large developing countries with large populations and growing domestic markets.
According to Experts Club calculations based on the International Monetary Fund’s April World Economic Outlook database, China remains the world’s largest economy by GDP at PPP in 2026. Its figure is estimated at $44.3 trillion in international dollars. The United States ranks second with $32.4 trillion, followed by India in third place with $18.9 trillion. Russia ranks fourth at about $7.5 trillion, Japan fifth at $7.3 trillion, and Germany sixth at $6.4 trillion. They are followed by Indonesia, Brazil, France and the United Kingdom. The second ten of the world’s largest economies includes Türkiye, Italy, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Nigeria and Taiwan.
The figures cited are IMF estimates for 2026 rather than final annual results. The full World Economic Outlook database was published in April 2026 and contains statistical data and forecasts through 2031.
At the beginning of the 1990s, the structure of the global economy looked significantly different. In 1992, the United States ranked first, Japan second and Germany third. China was only in sixth place, India ninth and Indonesia 14th. By 2026, China had risen to first place, India to third and Indonesia to seventh. South Korea moved from 18th place in 1992 to 14th, while Türkiye moved from 15th to 11th.
The growth of Asian countries is associated with population growth, urbanization, expansion of industrial production, infrastructure development and the formation of large domestic consumer markets. China’s rise has been particularly notable. In 1992, its economy at PPP was almost five times smaller than that of the United States, whereas today China’s figure is roughly one-third higher than the U.S. figure. India has also significantly narrowed the gap with the world’s largest economies. Its GDP at PPP in 2026 is almost three times that of Japan or Germany.
Western European countries remain widely represented among the world’s largest economies, but their relative positions are gradually declining. Germany moved from third place in 1992 to sixth in 2026. Italy fell from fifth to 12th, France from seventh to ninth, and the United Kingdom from eighth to tenth. The Netherlands, which was among the top 20 in the early 1990s, subsequently dropped out. Australia has also periodically ranked among the top 20 but is currently outside it.
This trend does not mean an absolute contraction of European economies. Their GDP continues to grow, but the economies of Asia, the Middle East and individual African countries are expanding faster. GDP at PPP additionally strengthens the positions of developing countries because it takes differences in domestic prices into account. One international dollar is intended to represent a comparable amount of goods and services across different economies, regardless of the market exchange rate of the national currency.
One of the important trends of recent decades has been the strengthening of major African countries. Egypt ranks 18th in the IMF’s 2026 estimate with GDP at PPP of about $2.57 trillion, while Nigeria ranks 19th with $2.42 trillion. Their presence in the top 20 is primarily related to the size of their populations and domestic markets. At the same time, high aggregate GDP does not automatically mean a high standard of living for citizens. To assess living standards, GDP at PPP per capita, labor productivity, the structure of the economy, income distribution and the quality of public services must be considered separately.
Following the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine remained among the world’s 20 largest economies by GDP at PPP for some time. According to Experts Club calculations based on the IMF’s historical data series, Ukraine ranked 17th in 1992 with about $433 billion in international dollars. In 1993, it ranked 19th, while in 1994 it fell to 23rd place and finally left the top 20.
In 2000, Ukraine ranked approximately 35th, in 2010 it was 31st, and on the eve of the full-scale war, in 2021, it ranked around 34th. Following the sharp contraction of the economy in 2022, Ukraine fell to 47th place. The World Bank estimated the decline in Ukraine’s real GDP in 2022 at approximately 29%. In subsequent years, the economy partially recovered. According to the IMF estimate, Ukraine ranked approximately 46th in 2025 and may rise to 44th place in 2026. Ukraine’s GDP at PPP in 2026 is estimated at approximately $724.5 billion in international dollars. This is about 0.33% of the global economy. Ukraine is positioned between Chile and Austria, ahead of Peru, the Czech Republic, Iraq and Norway.
“Ukraine’s departure from the top 20 did not occur in recent years, but back in the first half of the 1990s. Since then, the world has changed significantly: China, India, Indonesia, Türkiye and other developing countries expanded their industries, infrastructure and domestic consumption, while Ukraine went through prolonged structural crises, population loss and insufficient investment,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center.
According to him, the full-scale war further widened the gap between Ukraine and the world’s largest economies due to the destruction of enterprises, energy facilities and transport infrastructure, as well as the reduction in labor resources. As of the end of 2025, direct damage to Ukraine was estimated at more than $195 billion, while recovery and reconstruction needs for the next decade were estimated at nearly $588 billion.
The world’s 20th-largest economy, Taiwan, has GDP at PPP of about $2.27 trillion. This is more than three times Ukraine’s figure. Therefore, Ukraine cannot return to the top 20 through short-term post-war recovery alone. This will require sustained productivity growth, increased investment, the return of part of the population, development of the manufacturing industry and expansion of exports of high value-added products.
“The main conclusion from the ranking lies not in the country’s position itself, but in the speed of its movement relative to other countries. Even growth of several percent per year may be insufficient if competitors are growing faster. Ukraine needs a model of accelerated development designed for at least two decades,” Urakin emphasized.
Experts Club notes that GDP at PPP rankings make it possible to assess the scale of national economies and their role in global production, but they should not be used as the sole indicator of economic success. The United States, for example, trails China in aggregate GDP at PPP but significantly outpaces it in GDP per capita, financial market development and the value of high-tech companies.
The main global trend remains the gradual shift of economic weight toward Asia and the countries of the Global South. In the coming decades, this process will be supported by demographic growth, urbanization and the expansion of the middle class in India, Indonesia, Africa and other developing regions.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga stated that Kyiv wants to restore pre-war levels of bilateral trade with Azerbaijan, which currently stands at about $600 million.
According to a correspondent for “Interfax-Ukraine,” Sibiga made this remark at a joint press conference with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Jeyhun Bayramov
“We have set ourselves the goal of returning to pre-war levels in terms of trade. We have now reached about $600 million,” said the minister.
In this context, the foreign ministers agreed to work toward holding the next meeting of the Ukrainian-Azerbaijani Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation in Ukraine.
The parties held detailed talks on the bilateral and international agenda, Ukraine’s preparations for the winter season, and strengthening energy security in the region.
“Over the past year and this year, we have seen a new dynamic in the strategic partnership between Ukraine and Azerbaijan, with increased contacts at all levels. We view your visit as yet another element of this new and positive dynamic,” noted the Ukrainian diplomat.
The parties paid particular attention to the development of mutually beneficial economic, investment, and humanitarian cooperation. Sibiga stated that Ukraine values investments by Azerbaijani companies and looks forward to expanding their presence and implementing new joint projects.
The diplomats also discussed regional security issues in the South Caucasus and the Middle East. Andriy Sibiga briefed his Azerbaijani counterpart on Ukraine’s peace efforts and highlighted Azerbaijan’s important role in promoting peace and ensuring regional stability.
“We appreciate Azerbaijan’s principled stance in support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Ukraine has also always supported and continues to support Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is a constant in our relations,” emphasized the head of Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Sybiga expressed gratitude to Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev, and the entire Azerbaijani people for their assistance to Ukraine from the very first days of the full-scale invasion.
“The restoration of civilian infrastructure in Irpin, humanitarian aid, equipment for energy facilities, and much more. We will always remember this,” he assured.
In January–July 2026, Ukraine imported machinery, equipment, and vehicles worth $25.7 billion, accounting for more than 44% of the country’s total merchandise imports, according to the State Customs Service.
The second-largest category was fuel and energy products, with imports totaling $8.5 billion, followed by chemical industry products at $8 billion.
Collectively, these three commodity categories accounted for $42.2 billion, or about 73% of Ukraine’s imports over the seven-month period.
During customs clearance of machinery, equipment, and vehicles, 145.5 billion UAH in customs duties were paid to the state budget, accounting for 28% of the corresponding revenue.
Fuel and energy products accounted for 172.7 billion UAH, or 34% of customs duties, while chemical products accounted for 66.5 billion UAH, or 13%.
Thus, the three largest import categories accounted for about 75% of customs duties.
Total imports of goods into Ukraine in January–July rose by 26.6% compared to the same period last year—to $58.1 billion.
The largest supplier countries were China with $16.8 billion, Poland with $5.5 billion, and Germany with $3.8 billion.
Ukraine’s trade deficit in goods for January–July 2026 amounted to approximately $34 billion, compared to $22.7 billion for the same period in 2025, according to calculations based on data from the State Customs Service (SCS).
Thus, the merchandise trade deficit for the year increased by approximately $11.3 billion, or nearly 50%.
Imports of goods into Ukraine over the seven-month period rose by 26.6%—to $58.1 billion from $45.9 billion a year earlier—while exports increased by only 3.8%—to $24.1 billion from $23.2 billion.
The export-to-import ratio, calculated based on GTS data, fell to approximately 41.5% from 50.5% in January–July 2025.
The bulk of imports consisted of machinery, equipment, and transportation vehicles—$25.7 billion; fuel and energy products—$8.5 billion; and chemical industry products—$8 billion. Collectively, these three groups accounted for about 73% of total merchandise imports.
Food products remained the leading export category at $14.1 billion. Metals and metal products totaled $2.5 billion in exports, while machinery, equipment, and transportation vehicles totaled $2.1 billion.
The largest suppliers of goods to Ukraine were China ($16.8 billion), Poland ($5.5 billion), and Germany ($3.8 billion).
The main markets for Ukrainian exports were Poland ($2.8 billion), Turkey ($2 billion), and Germany ($1.5 billion).
Poland remained the largest market for Ukrainian exports and the second-largest supplier of goods to Ukraine during January–July 2026, according to data from the State Customs Service.
Ukraine exported $2.8 billion worth of goods to Poland, while Polish exports to the Ukrainian market totaled $5.5 billion.
Thus, the total trade volume between the two countries over the seven-month period reached approximately $8.3 billion.
Ukraine’s bilateral trade balance in goods was negative by approximately $2.7 billion.
Poland accounted for about 11.6% of Ukraine’s total goods exports and approximately 9.5% of its imports.
Turkey became the second-largest market for Ukrainian goods, with exports totaling $2 billion, while Germany ranked third with $1.5 billion.
In terms of the volume of imports into Ukraine, China took first place by a wide margin, with $16.8 billion. Germany ranked third after Poland, with $3.8 billion.
Overall, Ukraine’s merchandise imports for January–July rose by 26.6% to $58.1 billion, while exports increased by 3.8% to $24.1 billion.
According to “Serbian Economist”, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will pay an official visit to Serbia on August 8 and meet with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in Belgrade. The Serbian president’s press service has officially confirmed the visit. This will be Zelenskyy’s first visit to Serbia during his presidency.
A detailed agenda for the talks has not yet been published. However, judging by the contacts between Belgrade and Kyiv in recent months, the central topics are likely to include bilateral relations, the European integration of both countries, the expansion of economic cooperation, a possible free trade agreement, regional security, and Serbia’s participation in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
In May, Zelenskyy and Vučić had already discussed the development of bilateral relations over the phone. At that time, the Ukrainian president placed particular emphasis on resuming negotiations on a free trade zone with Serbia. Vučić, for his part, cited economic cooperation as one of the key areas for further rapprochement between the two countries.
Following this, talks between representatives of the two countries’ governments took place in Belgrade. On May 21, Serbian Minister of Domestic and Foreign Trade Jagoda Lazarević and Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and Trade Representative Taras Kachka signed a joint statement on the continuation of negotiations on a free trade agreement. At the same time, a Serbian-Ukrainian business forum was held with the participation of representatives from about 30 companies.
The upcoming visit continues a noticeable revival of political contacts between Belgrade and Kyiv.
In June 2025, Vučić visited Ukraine for the first time since the start of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, taking part in the “Ukraine–Southeast Europe” summit in Odesa. At that time, he reaffirmed Serbia’s support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and offered Serbia’s participation in the reconstruction of one or more Ukrainian cities or regions.
On July 15, 2026, Vučić was in Ukraine again—for the 5th “Ukraine–Southeast Europe” summit in Kyiv.
At the same time, Serbia’s position on the war remains unique. Belgrade supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and has voted in favor of a number of relevant international documents, provides humanitarian aid, but has not joined the EU sanctions against Russia. Vucic has also repeatedly avoided signing certain regional declarations insofar as they called for increased pressure on Moscow.
Therefore, the very fact of the Ukrainian president’s visit to Belgrade carries political significance: Serbia is attempting to simultaneously maintain traditional relations with Russia, develop relations with Kyiv, and continue its path toward EU membership.
Another topic of discussion could be the new regional Carpathian Initiative proposed by Ukraine. Zelenskyy has previously stated that Serbia, in particular, is planned to be involved in the initiative, and cooperation could cover the economy, logistics, security, tourism, and Ukraine’s reconstruction.
The economic aspect of the visit is particularly relevant against the backdrop of the resumption of bilateral trade.
According to official data from the Serbian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the country’s Statistical Office, trade between Serbia and Ukraine totaled 391.8 million euros in 2025. Serbia exported goods worth 179.6 million euros to Ukraine and imported Ukrainian products worth 212.2 million euros. Thus, the trade balance remained in Ukraine’s favor by approximately 32.6 million euros.
In dollar terms, according to Marko Čadež, president of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, bilateral trade reached $442.2 million, practically returning to the level of the last pre-war year, 2021. Serbian exports totaled $202.9 million, while Ukrainian exports to Serbia amounted to $239.3 million. About 900 Serbian companies conduct trade with Ukraine, including approximately 670 that import Ukrainian goods.
