Ukraine in the current season can grow and harvest 63 million tons of grain and oilseeds, approximately from 20 million hectares.
The corresponding estimates of the possible harvest were published on the website of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) on Monday.
“Ukraine, in the conditions of aggression from Russia, will still be with grain. This year, despite the fact that 5 million hectares cannot be sown or it will be impossible to harvest on them, Ukraine can receive about 63 million tons of grain and oilseeds from an area of about 20 million hectares. At the same time, the domestic market of Ukraine consumes about 30 million tons of grain and oilseeds annually,” the association’s report says.
In addition, subject to the reorientation of exports from seaports blocked by the aggressor country of the Russian Federation to land transportation, the country will be able to export up to 35 million tons of agricultural crops in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June).
UGA recalled that Ukraine in the current MY 2021/2022 due to the Russian blockade of seaports will not be able to export about 20 million tons of grain, which will be forced to store in elevators as transitional balances for the next MY.
According to the association, today the capacity of alternative logistics routes bypassing seaports is 600,000 tons of crops per month, but this figure can be increased by increasing the capacity of railway and logistics crossings at the borders with EU countries. Thus, thanks to the optimization of logistics, the export of grain and oilseeds in MY 2022/2023 can be expected at the level of 35 million tons.
“The current developments of the government and the public in the field of logistics and exports allow expanding the throughput to 2 million tons of crops per month. To reach the level of exports of 35 million tons of grains and oilseeds per year, it is necessary to further expand the throughput at the EU borders to 3 million tons per month,” the UGA said.
According to her, the wheat harvest in Ukraine in the current MY will decrease by 1.8 times – from 33 million tons in 2021/2022 MY to 18.2 million tons, but this figure is almost three times more than Ukraine consumes wheat per year. Taking into account the transitional stocks of wheat of the last harvest of almost 10 million tons, exports of wheat in 2022/2023 MY, with such harvest indicators and taking into account large transitional stocks, can amount to about 10 million tons.
In addition, the country can harvest up to 6.2 million tons of barley this season (in 2021 – 10.1 million tons), so its export in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the level of 2 million tons.
The corn harvest can be expected at the level of 23.1 million tons (in 2021 – 37.6 million tons), while its exports may reach about 20 million tons.
The rapeseed harvest can be expected at the level of 1.5 million tons (2.9 million tons), while its export in 2022/2023 MY is expected at the level of 1.3 million tons.
The soybean harvest can be expected at the level of 1.8 million tons (in 2021 – 3.5 million tons), and exports in 2022/2023 MY are projected at the level of 0.6 million tons.
“Thus, Ukraine will be guaranteed to have sufficient grain reserves, while the countries of the world will not receive a significant amount of grain from Ukraine due to Russia’s war against Ukraine and rising prices, which, according to UN estimates, could cause famine in many countries of the world. In particular, Ukraine traditionally exports about 30-35% of grain to the countries of North Africa and the Middle East, 30-35% to the countries of South and Southeast Asia, and about 35-40% to European countries,” the UGA concluded in its forecast.
As reported, before the Russian military invasion, Ukraine monthly exported up to 5 million tons of agricultural products through the ports of Odessa and Nikolaev, however, due to the blockade of these ports by the aggressor country of the Russian Federation, the country can transport no more than 0.5 million tons of grain monthly, which leads to a monthly shortage $1.5 billion in export earnings.
Ukraine in 2021, according to the State Statistics Service, harvested a record harvest of 85.7 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, which is 32% higher than in 2020, including 32.07 million tons of wheat (+28.9%), 41.87 million tons of corn (+38.2%) and 9.42 million tons of barley (+23.3%).
In addition, 593.9 thousand tons of rye were harvested in Ukraine (+30% by 2020), 471 thousand tons of oats (-7.3%), 204.2 thousand tons of millet (-20.2%) , 173.9 thousand tons of sorghum (+63.2%), 106.0 thousand tons of buckwheat (+8.5%), 48.6 thousand tons of rice (-20%), 32.3 thousand tons triticale (-7.8%), as well as 681 thousand tons of other leguminous crops.
Among other crops in the country last year, 16.38 million tons of sunflower were harvested (+25% compared to 2020), 10.8 million tons of sugar beet (+18.1%), 3.5 million tons of soybeans (+24. 4%), 2.92 million tons of rapeseed and 42 thousand tons of oilseed flax (an increase of 3.7 times).
New Zealand will send a C-130 Hercules transport plane with 50 servicemen to Europe to participate in the distribution of military aid to Ukraine, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced.
Over the next two months, our C-130 will join a chain of military aircraft from partner countries that will travel across Europe delivering much-needed equipment and supplies to key distribution centers, Ardern was quoted as saying by local media.
New Zealand will also allocate an additional NZ$ 13 million to help Ukraine, including 7.5 million for the purchase of weapons and ammunition through the UK. At the moment, the total contribution of New Zealand is $30 million.
The Cabinet of Ministers has legally confirmed the decision to terminate trade relations with the Russian Federation, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko has said.
“A very important decision was made. This is a legal confirmation of the actual termination of trade relations with the Russian Federation, which happened on February 24,” Svyrydenko said on the national telethon on Saturday evening following the government meeting.
According to her, such a decision would annually block Russia’s foreign exchange earnings by at least $6 billion.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, handed over to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky a questionnaire for joining the EU.
“Here we have intersecting roads, your road to the EU begins, this is already a close path. I will give you this folder, this questionnaire, here are the questions, you need to answer them. These are formal recommendations,” Leyen said at a press conference with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Friday.
Leyen stressed that Ukraine’s place is in the European family.
“We are with you in your dreams of Europe. I want to say very clearly: Ukraine has a place in the European family. We heard this statement from all your people, and we give you a positive answer to your request. This folder contains a very important stage of your arrival to this family. This is the basis for our discussions in the coming weeks,” she said.
In addition, the President of the European Commission stressed that this process will not last for years, as usual, but only weeks.
“Whatever the result, Ukraine has a very big step to recover, because Russia is brazenly destroying the infrastructure of Ukraine, the city of Ukraine. Therefore, we want to work together with you to reform Ukraine, restore Ukraine. This will positively determine Ukraine’s path to the EU “, Leyen also said.
She explained how the process usually takes place. “After a country submits an application, the Council of the EU decides that the Commission should issue its conclusion. Usually, it takes years. In the case of Ukraine, we are talking about weeks. We handed over our questionnaire, it will be filled in negotiations between Ukraine and the EU. This will be a picture of what is happening in the country, whether the country meets the Copenhagen criteria,” she said.
According to Leyen, Ukraine and the EU have agreed and committed that they will work on this important step to get all the answers to these detailed questions.
“It’s not just one question that determines our conclusion, there are a lot of questions that need to be answered. We want to work shoulder to shoulder in order to paint a picture of the country and the path to Europe. After that, the Commission issues its conclusion, which is recommendation to the Council of the EU and after that the Council is already deciding on the next steps,” she said.
The gross domestic product of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2022 fell by 16% compared to the same period last year, the country’s Ministry of Economy estimates.
“Our forecast for GDP decline in the first quarter is 16%, and the annual decline could reach 40%,” First Deputy Minister Denis Kudin is quoted in a press release from the department.
He noted that those industries where remote work is impossible, in particular, aviation, maritime transportation, and the service sector, where businesses work directly with consumers, have suffered the most.
At the same time, Kudin pointed out that over the past 10 days, the economy as a whole has begun to recover, business in safe regions is returning to work, and farmers have begun sowing.
The ministry noted that in the process of economic recovery, special attention will be paid to supporting industries that directly provide for the livelihoods of citizens and strengthen the defense capability of the state. “We are talking about agriculture, food production, retail, utilities and energy services, industries working on mobilization orders,” the press release says.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine in March of this year exported 5.97 million tons of goods worth $2.7 billion, which is more than half the quantity and value indicators for February. Imports fell three times – to 1.6 million tons for $1.8 billion.
Ores, corn, ferroalloys and oil remained the main export items. The export of metals (including flat-rolled products – decreased by almost 10 times, to 47,000 tons) and agricultural products was especially affected, the ministry noted.
“For some metallurgy positions, exports were not made at all. This is primarily due to the physical destruction of metallurgical facilities and the stoppage of production,” the ministry commented.
In March, Ukraine exported 1.1 million tons of corn, 309 thousand tons of wheat, 118 thousand tons of sunflower oil, 40 thousand tons of soybeans. This is four times less than in February.
Currently, the most important imports are gas, oil, oil products and coal.
Given the closure of transit through the territory of Belarus and the Russian Federation, as well as an increase in the number of freight transport by road, a number of restrictions are being removed or adjusted from April 4, 2022, the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine announced on its Facebook page on Monday.
According to the report, in particular, the period of validity of the electronic application for permits has been extended from seven to 10 days.
In addition, the following changes have been adopted for carriers: Poland – increased to five permits of all types per vehicle from April to May; Czech Republic – increased to two permits of all types but one vehicle up to 10 tons (for a month); Serbia – the restriction on travel across the country for vehicles up to 10 tons has been lifted; Romania – temporary registration of permits of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation to Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan for vehicles of the ecological standard Euro-3 and higher.
The Ministry of Infrastructure notes that from the very beginning of the war, it has been conducting systemic negotiations with partner countries on the abolition of the permit system for the period of martial law.
“As of April 4, we managed to agree on the cancellation of bilateral and transit permits for transportation through the territory of six countries of the European Union, in particular from Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Denmark, Latvia, Estonia, as well as through the territory of Georgia and Turkey. Slovakia also provided transportation without permits,” the report says.
In addition, as noted, a mechanism has been established for permit-free passage of all humanitarian cargo with Moldova, Romania, Slovenia, Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands and Lithuania.
