Business news from Ukraine

Overview of main economic indicators of Ukraine at end of 2023 by Experts club

The article collects and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.

Demographic indicators of Ukraine
Director of the Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Academician Ella Libanova, predicts that about 50% of citizens will return to Ukraine after the war ends. At the same time, Libanova believes that if the economy is restored to pre-war levels, Ukraine will not be able to return the projected 4.5 million citizens.
She also drew attention to the fact that, according to Eurostat, there are currently 4.2 million Ukrainian military migrants in the European Union.
Earlier, Libanova described depopulation and labor shortages as an inevitable scenario for Ukraine.
According to the estimates she presented at the Regional Economic Forum, as of the beginning of this year, the population in the government-controlled areas was 31.6 million people, and now it has slightly increased.
Libanova pointed out that the population forecast for the beginning of 2033 within the borders of 1991 Ukraine ranges from 26-35 million people.

Economic recovery
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 8.2% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year.
The NBU, which has raised its overall GDP growth forecast for this year to 4.9%, estimates the direct positive contribution of a higher harvest at 1.3 percentage points.
“At the same time, the key risk for our economy remains a longer duration and intensity of the war, as well as a decrease in the volume or loss of rhythm of international assistance, the resumption of a significant electricity shortage due to further destruction of the energy infrastructure and other risks,” said Maksym Urakin.

Analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade
Maksym Urakin also drew attention to the factor of the growing negative foreign trade balance, which has been observed since the beginning of the war.
“The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2023 increased by 3.2 times compared to the same period in 2022 – $19.402 billion. This means that the cost of purchasing the goods Ukraine needs is almost $20 billion more than the income from exporting Ukrainian goods to other countries,” said Urakin, PhD in Economics.

Ukraine’s financial situation in 2023
According to the expert, the main factors characterizing the state of the Ukrainian economy are public debt, international reserves, and inflation.
“As of September 30, 2023, Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 4,886.13 billion, or USD 133.62 billion. This is a slight decrease compared to the historical maximum set in August,” Maksym Urakin said.

The expert noted that the main risks to the economy remain the duration of the war and the instability of international aid.
“In the third quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 8.2%. The negative balance of foreign trade increased 3.2 times, which is an alarming signal. The public debt has slightly decreased compared to August figures, but in 2024 it may exceed the country’s GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability,” the economist said.

Thus, the economic situation in Ukraine, according to the founder of the Club of Experts, continues to require close monitoring and adaptation of strategies in response to changing conditions. Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world were discussed in more detail in one of the video programs of the Experts club

, , ,

Voting in presidential election in Finland ended on Sunday

Voting in the presidential election in Finland ended on Sunday, with a voter turnout of 74.9%. Since none of the candidates received more than half of the votes, a second round of voting will be held on February 11 with the participation of Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto, the Finnish edition of Yle reported on Sunday.

After counting 100% of the votes, former Prime Minister Aleksandra Stubb received 27.2% of the vote, and former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto 25.8%.

According to the country’s legislation, the president is elected for 6 years for no more than two consecutive terms, so Finnish President Sauli Niinistö will no longer be able to claim a third term in office, and a new, thirteenth head of state will come to power, whose term of office will begin on March 1, 2024.

Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical project analyzed all the major elections scheduled for 2024, and you can learn more about the 2024 global elections in the video here: https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=rAMBZvZ4ozNmSr4v

Subscribe to the Experts Club channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub

, ,

Most economists predict global economic slowdown

Global economic growth will slow down in 2024, according to more than half (56%) of chief economists surveyed at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos.

The remaining respondents expect global GDP growth to remain at the level of 2023 or accelerate.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the global economy will grow by 2.9% in 2024 after growing by 3% in 2023.

Economists are most pessimistic about Europe – three-quarters of respondents (77%) believe that growth in the region will be weak or very weak. Meanwhile, 93% of respondents expect moderate or strong growth in South Asia, and 86% in East Asia.

The US GDP growth rate will range from moderate to strong, according to 56% of the surveyed chief economists. Back in September, the percentage was 78%. At the same time, only 13% expect high inflation in the United States and Europe.

The WEF organizers interviewed 30 chief economists from banks, consulting firms, international organizations and major companies, including Microsoft and Google.

“The global economy will be tested again this year,” said WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi. – “Global inflation is easing, but economic growth is stalling, financial conditions remain tight, tensions are rising, and inequality is growing, underscoring the urgent need for international cooperation to create the conditions for sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

For more information on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, please see the video on the YouTube channel of the Club of Experts at the link:

You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub

, , ,

Ukraine exports $36 bln worth of goods in 2023

Exports of goods from Ukraine in 2023 fell by 18.5% year-on-year – from $44.2 billion to $36 billion, while imports increased by 14.4% – from $55.5 billion to $63.5 billion, the State Customs Service said on Friday.

As a result, according to its data, Ukraine’s foreign trade turnover for 2023 decreased by only 0.3% to $99.4 billion.

It is specified that taxable imports amounted to $52.6 billion, or 83% of the total volume of imported goods. It is noted that the tax burden per 1 kg of taxable imports in 2023 increased by 38% to $0.49/kg.

According to the released data, the most imported goods to Ukraine were China – in the amount of $10.4 billion, Poland – $6.6 billion and Germany – $4.9 billion, while the most exported were Poland – $4.7 billion, Romania – $3.7 billion, as well as China – $2.4 billion.

In the total volume of imported goods in 2023, 65% were machinery, equipment and transport – $19.8 billion (during customs clearance of such goods, UAH 141.7 billion or 31% of customs payments were paid to the budget), chemical products – $11 billion (UAH 74.8 billion or 16% of customs payments were paid to the budget) and fuel and energy products – $10.3 billion (UAH 103.4 billion or 23% of customs payments).

The top 3 exports from Ukraine in 2023 were food products – $21.8 billion, metals and metal products – $3.9 billion, as well as machinery, equipment and transport – $2.9 billion

The State Customs Service specified that 559.2 million UAH was paid to the budget during customs clearance of exports of goods for which the export duty was established.
For more details on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, see the video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” at the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byJnfmie7bM
Subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub

, , ,

Negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade increased 2.8 times

The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2023 increased 2.8 times compared to the same period of 2022 – to $24.351 billion from $8.570 billion, the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) said on Monday.
According to its data, exports of goods from the country during the period decreased by 18.9% compared to January-November 2022 – to $32.978 billion, while imports increased by 16.5% – to $57.329 billion.
The State Statistics Committee specified that in November-2023 compared to October-2023, seasonally adjusted exports increased by 3.1% to $2.583 billion, while imports decreased by 9.5% to $4.749 billion.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in November-2023, as in the previous month, was negative at $2.166 billion compared to $2.741 billion before.
The export-import coverage ratio in January-November 2023 was 0.58 (0.83 in January-November 2022).
State Statistics specified that foreign trade operations were conducted with partners from 228 countries.
For more details on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, see the video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” at the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byJnfmie7bM
Subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub

, , ,

Winner of presidential election in Taiwan has been determined

The head of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Lai Tsing-jeou, has won the presidential election in Taiwan, Western media report.

He received 40.2% of the vote, significantly outpacing his opponents. It is reported that almost all ballots have been counted. However, the Central Election Commission has not yet announced the voter turnout.

The media reminds us that the DPP will remain in power in Taiwan for the third consecutive term: Tsai Ing-wen has held the presidency for two four-year terms since 2016.

Hou Yui of the Kuomintang Party, who won 33% of the vote, has already congratulated Lai Tsing-jeou on his victory. Ke Wen-jeou, the founder and leader of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), who managed to win 26.33% of the vote, also conceded defeat.

Later, Lai Tsingde thanked everyone who voted for him, as well as Hou Yui and Ke Wen-jeou, who agreed with the election results.

“We are telling the international community that when it comes to choosing between democracy and authoritarianism, we choose the side of democracy,” he said.

“The party of current Vice President Lai, which defends Taiwan’s identity and rejects China’s territorial claims, is running for a third term, an unprecedented development in Taiwan’s current electoral system,” Reuters notes.

The European Union welcomed the elections held in Taiwan on January 13, citing a common commitment to democracy.

“Our respective systems of governance are based on a common commitment to democracy, the rule of law and human rights. The European Union emphasizes that peace and stability in the Taiwan

Strait area is key to regional and global security and prosperity,” a statement by a spokesperson for the European External Action Service (EEAS) said in a statement released on Saturday in Brussels.
At the same time, the EEAS spokesperson noted that the European Union remains concerned about the growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and opposes any unilateral attempts to change the status quo.”

Earlier, the Experts club information and analytical center released a video about the most important elections in the world in 2024, which predicted the victory of an anti-Chinese candidate for the presidency of Taiwan. More information about the 2024 global elections can be found in the video here: https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=O98WbmetBtle9DnH

Subscribe to the Experts Club channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub

, , ,