Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will fall by 45.1%, the World Bank predicts, recalling that before the Russian invasion, it expected the Ukrainian economy to grow by 3.2% this year.
The Ukrainian economy is expected to contract by 35% in 2022, although precise measures of the damage to the Ukrainian economy are impossible to obtain, according to the updated World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund released.
The Ministry of Finance expects a fall in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 ranging from 35% to 50%, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko has said.
Due to the war unleashed by Russia, Ukraine’s gross public debt will increase to 86.2% of GDP in 2022 after declining from 61% of GDP to 49% of GDP last year, this forecast is given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 will be about 33% according to the base scenario, in which the war will last for another month and a half at the most, Oleksandr Pecheritsyn, a leading analyst at Raiffeisen Bank (Kyiv), said.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-March 2022 decreased by 40 times compared to the same period in 2021 – to $31.6 million from $1271.6 million.
The rise of consumer prices in Ukraine in March 2022 accelerated to 4.5% from 1.6% in February, while 1.3% in January and 0.6% in December, the State Statistics Service has said.
Inflation in Ukraine by the end of 2022 may exceed 20% due to the consequences of a full-scale war, but it will be controlled, the National Bank of Ukraine said.
Due to the war unleashed by Russia, Ukraine’s gross public debt will increase to 86.2% of GDP in 2022 after declining from 61% of GDP to 49% of GDP last year, this forecast is given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The transport enterprises of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the JFO zone) in 2021 increased transportation of goods by 3.3% compared to 2020 – up to 619.9 million tonnes.
About 23% of Ukrainian retailers’ outlets are closed, most of the non-operating facilities are in the entertainment segment, according to a survey by the Association of Retailers of Ukraine.
“As of April 20, some 11,744 stores out of 15,263 that were open at the time of the start of full-scale aggression were operating. That is, 23% less – 3,521 are closed. Compared to March, the situation is improving, since then the relative loss of retail was 29.4% – 4,481 store,” the association said. Fresh review dedicated to macro economic figures is available via link https://youtu.be/dwh7Q6aZZBA
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
Ukrainian volunteers are faced with the problem of bringing humanitarian aid into the country, representatives of volunteer organizations have said during a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Thursday.
“Now there are enough donors on the territory of the European Union who are interested in providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but they need the Ukrainian side to take it. Because of this, Ukrainian public organizations refuse humanitarian aid or transfer it to other organizations, as they cannot cover the cost logistics component of the delivery,” Head of the Ukrainian Exporters Club Yevhenia Lytvynova said.
Commenting on the transfer of thermal imagers and quadrocopters to Ukraine, she noted that such goods require a letter of guarantee from the end user, the author of which can only be a military command body of the Ministry of Defense or another military formation.
In turn, Head of the International Technology Transfer Association (ITTA) Artem Honcharenko said that the Ukrainian army today needs medicines, in particular hemostatic drugs, as well as drugs against ulcers, diarrhea, dysbacteriosis, and a runny nose.
He stressed that there is currently a strong demand for anthelmintic drugs, flea, tick, mosquito and antifungal drugs. In addition, the Ukrainian army requires basic medicines such as paracetamol, ibuprofen, as well as syringes, bandages and elastic bandages.
In turn, Director of the Center of the Academy of Construction of Ukraine Ivan Perehinets announced plans to create an international fund Ukraine to finance the construction of houses for people who lost their homes due to the Russian invasion.
“More than a million families were left without housing… We are now in the process of registering the Ukraine International Construction Fund, which will deal with the construction of houses,” Perehinets said.
In turn, Head of the International Relations Department of Kontramarka Help Oleksiy Honcharov announced plans to purchase a mobile field hospital.
“We are currently working on a mobile hospital that can drive close enough to the front line, deploy in a matter of minutes and provide full first aid,” Honcharov said.
According to him, such a field hospital was found in Turkey and funds are being collected for its subsequent purchase. The hospital is partly financed by charitable contributions from concerts held, most organized with the support of Kontramarka.
President of the Ukrainian Association of District and Regional Councils Serhiy Chernov said that on February 15, based on information from foreign colleagues and Ukrainian intelligence, the association decided to create a coordination center to assist local governments in providing humanitarian assistance, studying all possible consequences of hostilities, and working with religious denominations and preparation of documents “on the destruction caused by the Russian Federation, as well as compensation for losses.”
Restaurateur and volunteer Maryan Burmylo announced cooperation with the United States. “Ukrainian volunteers from California organized charitable assistance to medical institutions in Ukraine. Odesa residents Natalia Hryschenko and Oleksiy Buyadzhy (UkrainCA public initiative), with the help of the Mission to Ukraine team, arranged the supply of medicines at the expense of American funds of Cincinnati and Baltimore – sister cities of Ukrainian Kharkiv and Odesa. Aid in the form of the supply of surgical kits is provided by the International Surgical Health Initiative (ISHI, the USA),” he said.
BUYADZHY, CHERNOV, HONCHARENKO, HONCHAROV, HUMANITARIAN AID, PEREHINETS, URAKIN, VOLUNTEERS, ЛИТВИНОВА
In its new video, the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” analyzed the situation in the Ukrainian economy before the start of the Russian aggression. As you know, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has temporarily suspended the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months from the moment it ends. The exception is the publication of data on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021, as well as for the period January-February 2022.
If we return to the indicators of the beginning of the year, at that time we could talk about economic growth and recovery after the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, says the founder of the Club of Experts, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maxim Urakin.
“Officially, the number of unemployed in the country, according to the State Employment Center, as of January 2022, was just over 358,000 people. In this direction, there was a positive trend and the recovery of jobs after the labor market crisis that was caused by the pandemic,” he explained.
In addition, the expert noted that according to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP in 2021 grew by 3.4% after a decline of 3.8% a year earlier. At the same time, there was an increase in industrial production and retail trade within the country.
“Industrial production in Ukraine in 2021 increased by 1.1% after a 5% drop in 2020. At the same time, in 2021, compared to the twentieth, the retail trade turnover increased significantly, by more than ten percent and amounted to more than one trillion four hundred forty-three billion hryvnia,” Urakin added.
All this, according to the founder of the Club of Experts, may indicate that in the pre-war period the country’s economy showed positive indicators of development.
The full video can be viewed on the YouTube channel “Expert Club” at the link:
Attention! People have disappeared in the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions. Please help us find:
1. Rybalko Irina Alexandrovna. 1970 year of birth. Average height. She has poor eyesight and wears glasses. Deaf-mute.
Lives in the city of Kremennaya, st. Titov. Last contacted on April 18, 2022.
Rybalko Alexander Mikhailovich 1971 year of birth. High growth. Deaf-mute. Lives in the city of Kremennaya, st. Titov. Last contacted April 18, 2022.
Ribalko Irina Oleksandrivna
Ribalko Oleksandr Mikhailovich
If you have any information about the whereabouts of Irina and Alexander, please call:
+380663151321 (relatives).
2. Gurin Alexey Mikhailovich. Born 10/10/1950 Was in Kharkov. No communication since February 23, 2022.
Gurin Alexey Mikhailovich
If you have any information about Alexey’s whereabouts, please call:
+380963601842 (Svetlana Derbysheva).
We ask citizens whose relatives do not get in touch to send us all the information. We recommend using the following contact form:
1. Full name of the missing person;
2. Your contact details;
3. Photo of the missing person, description of special features;
4. Approximate place of the last stay of the missing person.
The “Find Your Loved Ones” project is non-commercial, all your appeals will be edited and published free of charge in the media.
We invite colleagues from the media to join the initiative!
The project coordinator is Maxim Urakin, deputy head of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency and publisher of the Open4Business project.
Send information about the missing by e-mail maksim.urakin@gmail.com
Attention! A man has disappeared in Donetsk regions. Please help us find:
1. Vasilyuk Miroslav Ivanovich, born April 25, 1997 He was wounded in Mariupol, had to be evacuated on 03/31/2022. Last contact was 03/30/22. Distinguishing marks: a mole in the middle of his forehead, a leopard tattoo on his right arm.
Vasilyuk Miroslav Ivanovich
If you have any information about Miroslav’s whereabouts, please call:
+380639227659 (sister Vasilyuk Snezhana Ivanovna).
———–
We ask citizens whose relatives do not get in touch to send us all the information. We recommend using the following contact form:
1. Full name of the missing person;
2. Your contact details;
3. Photo of the missing person, description of special features;
4. Approximate place of the last stay of the missing person.
The “Find your loved ones” project is non-commercial, all your appeals will be edited and published free of charge in the media.
We invite colleagues from the media to join the initiative!
The project coordinator is Maxim Urakin, deputy head of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency and publisher of the Open4Business project.
Send information about the missing by e-mail maksim.urakin@gmail.com
Ukraine’s losses from destruction due to a full-scale war against Russia amount to at least $100 billion, the war has led to a complete shutdown of half of Ukrainian enterprises, Oleh Ustenko, adviser to the President of Ukraine, said.
As of March 7, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a fall in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 as a result of Russia’s armed aggression, provided that it ends as soon as possible, by 10% and inflation rises to 20%.
The financial gap of Ukraine in 2022 is estimated from $4.8 billion according to the balance of payments method to $7.4 billion according to the fiscal balance method, such estimates were given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as of March 7 in materials for emergency financing for Ukraine in the amount of $1.4 billion posted on its website.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculation methodology, which takes into account such military conflicts, estimates the fall in GDP due to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine at 35% in 2022, Alternate Executive Director for Ukraine at the IMF Vladislav Rashkovan has said.
The Ukrainian economy is suffering greatly from the war unleashed by Russia, the decline in its GDP could be a third of what it was before the war, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a Foreign Policy Live discussion.
The Ministry of Economy estimates the amount of losses from the Russian invasion of Ukraine at $564.9 billion, First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has said.
The fall in Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) as a result of full-scale Russian military aggression is currently estimated at 35% or more, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
Ukraine’s losses from Russia’s full-scale military aggression, taking into account both the destruction already inflicted on the infrastructure and economy, and future losses in subsequent years, exceed $1 trillion, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
The state budget in January-February 2022 had a surplus in the amount of UAH 24 billion, including a surplus of UAH 13.1 billion for the general fund, with a planned deficit of the general fund for this period of UAH 66.2 billion, the Ministry of Finance reported on its website.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade balance decreased by only 0.2% in 2021 compared to 2020, from $0.678 billion to $0.676 billion. According to it, over the past year, exports of goods and services increased by 34.3%, to $79.724 billion, while imports – by 33.9%, to $80.401 billion.
Ukrainian transport companies carried almost 2.657 billion passengers in 2021, which is 3.4% more than in 2020.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the JFO zone) in 2021 increased transportation of goods by 3.3% compared to 2020 – up to 619.9 million tonnes, the State Statistics Service reported.
In January 2022, retail trade turnover in Ukraine increased by 18% compared to the same month in 2021 in comparable prices, while in December 2021 the growth was 5.1%.
Production of grains and oilseeds in 2022 in Ukraine is preliminary estimated at 53.3 million tonnes, which is 51% lower than the previous season’s record, due to the Russian military invasion and ongoing hostilities, this year’s harvest may be minimum for the last 10-15 years.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
