The analytical center “Club of Experts” in Kiev within the framework of the initiative on training of journalists in basic skills of rendering the first pre-medical care has held the first seminar-workshop. The event was organized by the Club of Experts, the Adonis network of medical centers, and “Help For Ukraine” Charitable Foundation, “Hromada Priirpenia Foundation” Charity Foundation; the information partner – “Interfax-Ukraine” and Open4Business portal.
The seminar was attended by the representatives of mass media from different regions of Ukraine, whose work is connected with risk and possibility of facing emergency situations. According to the participants, mastering basic first aid skills can be of vital importance at critical times, related to their professional activities in wartime conditions.
The seminar’s keynote speaker, Adonis Medical Group anesthesiologist Mariana Bolyuk, is the co-author of 12 scientific publications and has a wealth of experience in the medical field. In her presentation, she covered important aspects of pre-medical care, including algorithms for basic life support, types of bleeding and how to stop it. Practical techniques, such as determining the pulse on main arteries and applying a turnstile, were also practiced at the seminar.
According to Maxim Urakin, organizer of the seminar and founder of the “Expert Club,” in the current situation it is important to develop first aid skills among journalists because the role of their profession and the risk they face daily has increased significantly in war conditions.
“According to information published in the media, since last February, 61 media workers have already been killed and about 500 more journalists have been wounded. Therefore, we are deeply aware of the importance of training journalists in basic first aid skills. Our colleagues constantly face risks and have the responsibility of informing the public under difficult conditions. Therefore, we should strive to provide journalists not only with information, but also with the means to preserve and protect their lives and health,” Urakin emphasized.
In the future, the organizers of the seminar plan to develop this training project, covering more media representatives and expanding their knowledge and skills in first aid. Journalists with a basic knowledge of premedical care will be able to act more effectively in difficult situations, contributing to quick and effective aid to victims. First-aid training for journalists in the future must become an integral part of their professional training and responsibility to society. According to the organizers, it is important to support and develop such initiatives in the future so that journalists are prepared for emergencies and contribute to general safety and well-being.
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On Thursday, June 8, Kyiv will host a workshop entitled “First Aid in Case of Injuries and Traumas”. It is intended for media representatives who will be able to master the basic skills of first aid in case of injuries and traumas.
The keynote speaker at the seminar will be Mariana Bolyuk, an anesthesiologist and representative of the Adonis Medical Center Group. She is a co-author of 12 scientific publications and has extensive experience in the field of medicine.
The organizers of the seminar attach great importance to this event and provide an opportunity for journalists to gain the necessary knowledge to provide first aid. Participation in the training will allow journalists to respond more effectively to emergencies and act professionally in case of injuries and traumas.
According to Maksym Urakin, co-organizer of the training, media workers are more often involved in emergencies, so the organizers are trying to hold such events on a regular basis to save lives.
“In total, 61 media representatives have been killed during the conflict. In addition, according to media reports, about 500 journalists have been injured or traumatized to varying degrees since the beginning of the war. With the help of our trainings, we are trying to save lives and health of citizens,” said Maksym Urakin.
The seminar was organized by the Kyiv-based think tank Club of Experts; Adonis, medical partner; Help For Ukraine Charitable Foundation; Pryirpin Community Foundation, general partner; Interfax-Ukraine and Open4Business, general media partners.
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The main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine testify to the increasing role of international structures in keeping Ukrainian economy in operating mode.
The International Monetary Fund, which earlier estimated the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy this year from 3% of its decline to 1% of growth, is inclined to the fact that GDP growth in 2023 may be at the upper limit of this range. At that, as the head of the National Bank Andrey Pyshnyy said, the negative scenario of Ukraine’s GDP fall by 10% this year and 2% next year, contained in the EFF program, confirms the IMF readiness to support Ukraine even in the worst case scenario.
The World Bank estimates that Ukraine’s GDP may grow by 0.5% in 2023 and by 3.5% in 2024 after falling by nearly 30% (29.2%, to be exact) last year. At the same time, the World Bank in January 2023 predicted rapid growth of Ukrainian GDP: by 3.3% this year and by 4.1% next year.
The International Monetary Fund in its April review of the global economy (World Economic Outlook: A Rocky Recovery) once again abandoned its forecast for Ukraine beyond 2023, although in the EFF program approved at the end of March it gave a forecast until 2027.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product, after growing by 3.4% in 2021, fell by 29.1% in 2022 due to full-scale Russian military aggression, such official data was released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
The National Bank of Ukraine improved its forecast for the growth of gross domestic product of the country in 2023 to 2% from 0.3% in the January forecast, which is largely due to the reduction of security risks, the restoration of the energy system, as well as soft fiscal policy.
International rating agency S&P has affirmed long-term issuer credit ratings of Ukrainian capital Kiev in foreign and national currency “CCC+” with a stable outlook, indicating that the city has demonstrated good financial performance in 2022, despite the difficult environment.
The founder of the Kiev analytical center “Club of Experts” drew attention to a significant reduction in the foreign trade balance of Ukraine. “The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods at the beginning of 2023 increased by more than 3 times and amounted to almost $4 billion, we will watch the next months, but if this trend persists until the fall of 2023, the country may face a strong imbalance of the main macroeconomic indicators,” – said Maksim Urakin.
According to the authorities, in January-February 2023, Ukraine’s foreign trade deficit with goods increased 3.4 times compared to the same period of 2022 – up to $3.713 billion from $1.083 billion.
At the same time, the state budget deficit of Ukraine in March 2023 decreased to 59.2 billion UAH from 88.8 billion UAH in February, including the general fund deficit to 72.6 billion UAH from 93.2 billion UAH.
State budget expenditures for support of the AFU in the form of purchase of military equipment, weapons, ammunition, defense products, and personal protective equipment, amounted to UAH 34.4 billion in March (15.3% of total expenditures), compared with UAH 31.9 billion in February (14%), and UAH 28.7 billion in January (15.6%).
Ukraine’s public debt and publicly guaranteed debt in 2022 increased by $13.4 billion to 78.5% of GDP by the end of 2022 from 48.9% in 2021.
According to the National Bank, the deficit of Ukraine’s consolidated balance of payments in February was $722 million after a surplus of $1.208 billion in January, but the deficit is 2.1 times smaller than in February 2022, when it was $1.52 billion.
International reserves of Ukraine as of April 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, amounted to $31.878 billion, which is 10% or $3 billion more than in February 2023, it is connected with significant receipts from international partners of Ukraine.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine accelerated to 1.5% in March 2023 from 0.7% in February and 0.8% in January. At the same time, inflation in April 2022 was 3.1%, so in annual terms in April 2023 it decreased to 17.9% from 21.3% in March, 24.9% in February and 26.6% in December. Core inflation in the past month also fell to 0.5% from 1.5% in March, returning to the level of February.
Ukraine from the beginning of 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) to April 10 exported 38.82 million tons of grains, including 22.86 million tons of corn (58.9% of total supplies), 13.34 million tons of wheat (34.4%) and 2.3 million tons of barley (5.9%). Further exports of oilseeds and grains largely depend on the extension of the so-called “grain deal”.
A new video on YouTube channel of the analytical center “Club of Experts” examined the options for the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey. Ukrainian experts expressed their opinions and gave forecasts regarding the political situation in this country.
Mohammad Farajallah, editor-in-chief of the Internet publication “Ukraine in Arabic,” stressed that the upcoming elections in Turkey are of great importance for the region and arouse the interest of the international community.
“Turkey is an important player on the world stage, and its domestic policy directly affects the situation in the region and beyond. Therefore, the results of the elections will be monitored with great attention,” he noted.
In turn, the founder of the Club of Experts, Maksim Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics, shared his vision of possible scenarios after the elections. He stressed that there are two main political forces fighting for leadership in Turkey: the Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Kemal Kılıcdaroğlu, allied with five other opposition political forces.
“Two scenarios are possible. If the AKP wins, we can expect a continuation of the policies Erdoğan has pursued in recent years, with a focus on enhancing domestic stability and strengthening Turkey’s position in the international arena. On the other hand, if the CHP wins, we may see a more pro-Western orientation and increased cooperation with the European Union and the United States,” the expert said.
According to Urakin, a win for either candidate in the first round is unlikely, and the winner of the presidential race will most likely be determined by a second ballot.
Both experts also noted the significance for Ukraine of the election results in Turkey.
“Ukraine has close economic and political ties with Turkey, so the election results will have a direct impact on our relations and cooperation. Over the last year, as a result of the war, trade turnover between our countries has decreased, but I believe that if the current political course is maintained, we can expect further development of trade and economic relations between Ukraine and Turkey,” said Maxim Urakin.
In addition, the expert cited statistics on exports from Ukraine to Turkey in 2022, according to which it has decreased significantly.
“Last year, the volume of Ukrainian exports to Turkey was about 3 billion dollars as opposed to more than 4 billion in 2021, that is, we see a drop of 29%,” Urakin said.
According to Mohammad Farajallah, in the current geopolitical situation Turkey is an important partner of Ukraine in various spheres, which include both military support (UAV Bayraktar, light armored vehicles) and cooperation in economy, energy and other spheres.
The expert also suggested that if the opposition wins, Turkey is more likely to join sanctions against Russia.
“Naturally, the new government will be as close to the West as possible and can be included in a common unified Western policy against Russia. This, of course, will be to our advantage. But these are just preliminary words for now, perhaps they (the opposition – ed.) will come, look at the numbers and continue Erdogan’s current policy,” said Farajallah.
It should be noted that on the eve of the voting, Erdoğan lags behind his main rival Kılıçdaroğlu by more than 5%, according to a poll published by the Turkish sociological center KONDA on May 11.
Thus, Erdoğan gets the support of 43.7 percent of respondents, while Kılıçdaroğlu gets 49.3 percent.
The poll also reveals that neither candidate gets more than 50% of the votes, which means that if these data are confirmed in the elections, the winner will be chosen in the second round, which is scheduled for May 28.
The KONDA polling service conducted personal interviews with 3,480 people in 35 provincial centers.
At the same time, according to other surveys, in particular the Istanbul-based Center for Operational Social Research (Yöneylem), Erdoğan’s party was supported by 35.2% of voters in the parliamentary elections and Kılıcdaroğlu’s CHP by 30.7%.
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The Club of Experts and Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, have prepared a summary of the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine in the beginning of 2023.
So, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine revised the macro forecast for 2023, worsening the GDP growth forecast from 3.2% to 1%, primarily because of the assumption that the military operations will not end in the middle of the year, and will last “almost a whole year”, said Deputy Minister Sergei Sobolev.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product fell 31.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 after falling 30.8% in the third quarter, 37.2% in the second and 15.1% in the first, the State Statistics Service said Monday. At the same time, according to the consensus forecast of eight companies and non-governmental institutions, which was released by the Center for Economic Strategy, the real gross domestic product of Ukraine in 2023 will decline by 0.1%, with estimates ranging from a decline of 4.6% to growth of 5.5%. The economic recovery will be barely visible this year, expected to moderate GDP growth of 2%, which will bring real GDP at the end of this year at 70-72% of prewar 2021, such macroeconomic forecast published by ICU investment group.
According to deputy governor of the NBU Serhiy Mykolaychuk, the economic situation in Ukraine in the first quarter of 2023 is developing much better than the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expected in its January forecast, especially in the energy supply, so it is highly probable that the central bank will improve its current GDP growth forecast for this year by 0.3% at the end of April. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund forecasts the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy this year from 3% decline to 1% growth followed by 3.2% growth in 2024 and 6.5% growth in 2025.
And the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which previously estimated the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy this year from 3% decline to 1% growth, is inclined to the fact that GDP growth in 2023 may be at the upper limit of this range.
Ukraine’s GDP, after falling by 29.2% last year, will grow by 0.5% this year and by 3.5% next year, predicts the World Bank, which in January this year expected more rapid growth: by 3.3% in 2023 and by 4.1% in 2024.
At the same time, the real gross domestic product of Ukraine after growing by 3.4% in 2021 in 2022 due to full-scale Russian military aggression fell by 29.1%, and the negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-February 2023 increased 3.4 times compared to the same period in 2022 – to $3.713 billion from $1.083 billion.
The state budget deficit of Ukraine in February 2023 increased to 88.8 billion UAH from 72.3 billion UAH in January, including the general fund deficit to 93.2 billion UAH from 78.9 billion UAH.
The aggregate state debt of Ukraine in February decreased by 0.5%: in dollar terms by $0.59 billion – to $116.01 billion, in UAH terms – by UAH 21.62 billion, to UAH 4.24 trillion.
At the same time, at the end of January 2023, Ukraine’s consolidated balance of payments was $1.2 billion in surplus, while in January 2022 the deficit was $1.8 billion.
International reserves of Ukraine as of March 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, amounted to $28.865 billion, which is 3.5%, or $1.064 billion, less than in January 2023 due to interventions of the National Bank to sell currency to cover the difference between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in February 2023 slowed to 0.7% from 0.8% in January, returning to the level of December last year.
The saturated market of Ukraine and its geographical location make our country an attractive market for foreign goods. However, importing goods to Ukraine is a complex process that requires knowledge of legislation, international relations, and customs clearance procedures. These and other issues were discussed by the founder of the Club of Experts Maxim Urakin and the President of the Ukrainian Exporters Club Yevheniia Lytvynova in a new video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts”.
According to Maksym Urakin, before starting to import goods, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of the market and legislation of Ukraine and the exporting country, as well as calculate all costs associated with delivery, customs clearance and taxes.
“This will help you draw up a clear action plan and avoid unpleasant situations during the import process,” the expert emphasized.
Yevheniia Lytvynova, President of the Ukrainian Exporters Club, also emphasizes the need to research the market and check the reputation of potential suppliers.
“Market research and checking the reputation of potential partners can help you find a reliable supplier,” she said.
According to Yevheniia Lytvynova, successful import of goods requires a thorough analysis of all aspects of the importer’s future business strategy.
“Before you start importing goods, you need to conduct a detailed analysis of the market, legal requirements and your capabilities, as well as calculate all the costs associated with delivery, customs clearance and taxes. This will help you draw up a clear plan of action and avoid unpleasant situations during the import process,” emphasized Lytvynova.
Regarding the documents to be prepared for importing goods, Lytvynova noted that the contract between the importer and exporter, invoice, transportation document (e.g., waybill or bill of lading), quality certificate and certificate of origin should be put in the forefront.
“In addition to these basic documents, additional documents may be required depending on the characteristics of the goods and the requirements of Ukrainian legislation. In particular, licenses, certificates of conformity, permits and other documents confirming compliance with safety, hygiene, environmental requirements, etc. may be required,” she explained.
Maksym Urakin also emphasized that studying local legislation and choosing a reliable supplier are also very important steps in the import process. According to the experts, in order to successfully sell goods in Ukraine, it is also necessary to take into account the difficulties that may arise after their delivery.
“Even if the goods are of high quality and interesting, they still need to be sold. But here in Ukraine, even after obtaining certificates and relevant permits, sales can be restricted due to various customs barriers, which leads to breach of contract. Therefore, we advise our companies to conduct a detailed analysis of the market and legal requirements. This will allow them to prepare the right documentation and comply with all requirements,” said Yevgeniya Lytvynova.
To increase export sales, experts recommend improving product quality and providing buyers with more information about their goods.
“Nowadays, many buyers check the quality of goods and their compliance with standards. If your products don’t meet the requirements, they simply won’t buy them,” emphasized Maksym Urakin.
In this regard, experts advise to focus on developing the quality of goods and their competitiveness. In addition, according to Maxim Urakin, it is important to participate in international exhibitions and forums where you can find new partners and establish contacts with potential suppliers.
Thus, according to the experts, it is very important to comply with all the requirements and norms set by law when importing goods, conduct a detailed market analysis and check the reputation of suppliers. It is also important to ensure the quality of goods and timely delivery, while considering all possible risks and costs. Importing goods can be a very profitable business if you organize it properly. Experienced experts advise to study the market and determine your capabilities to avoid unpleasant situations and ensure successful business development.
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