Germany is one of the countries that enjoy the greatest trust and sympathy among Ukrainians. This is evidenced by the results of an all-Ukrainian survey conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Experts Club information and analytical center in August 2025.
According to the survey, 76.7% of Ukrainian citizens have a positive attitude toward Germany (51.3% are mostly positive, 25.3% are completely positive). Only 4.0% of respondents expressed a negative attitude (3.3% – mostly negative, 0.7% – completely negative). Another 18.7% of Ukrainians are neutral, and 1.0% admitted that they do not know enough about this country.
“For Ukrainians, Germany is first and foremost a guarantor of stability in the European Union, a country that made a huge contribution to supporting Ukraine during the war. At the same time, economic cooperation is also essential: in the first half of 2025, bilateral trade exceeded $5.63 billion, of which Ukrainian exports amounted to $1.58 billion and imports from Germany exceeded $4.05 billion. The negative balance of about $2.5 billion demonstrates that we import more than we export, but this reflects the high demand for German technology and equipment,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
In turn, Oleksandr Poznyi, co-founder of Active Group, emphasized that the positive attitude of Ukrainians goes far beyond the economy.
“Germany is viewed as a strategic ally in the political and security dimensions. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees have found refuge there, and large-scale financial and military assistance plays a key role in the stability of our country. The combination of these factors explains why more than three-quarters of Ukrainians have a positive attitude towards Germany and why this country remains among the absolute leaders of trust in our society,” he added.
The survey was part of a broader study of international sympathies and antipathies of Ukrainians in the current geopolitical context.
The full video is available here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgC9TPnMoMI&t
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here:
https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, GERMANY, Poznyi, SOCIOLOGY, TRADE, URAKIN
The attitude of Ukrainians toward China remains complex and controversial: a neutral position prevails, but among those who have decided, negative assessments significantly outweigh positive ones. This is evidenced by the results of an all-Ukrainian survey conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Experts Club information and analytical center in August 2025.
According to the survey, 44.7% of Ukrainian citizens expressed a neutral attitude toward China. At the same time, 40.7% of respondents indicated that their assessment was negative (30.0% – mostly negative, 10.7% – completely negative). Only 12.0% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude toward China (8.3% – mostly positive, 3.7% – completely positive). Another 3.0% of respondents admitted that they did not know enough about the country to express their own opinion.
“Negative attitudes toward China among Ukrainians are primarily related to its foreign policy stance, which many people find ambiguous in the context of global events. However, the economic factor is extremely important: in the first half of 2025, China remained Ukraine’s No. 1 trading partner. Our exports to China amounted to more than $846 million, while imports exceeded $8.1 billion. This means that China’s influence on the Ukrainian economy is extremely significant, and it is simply impossible to ignore it,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
In his turn, Oleksandr Poznyi, co-founder of Active Group, drew attention to the importance of separating economic interests from public perception.
“The survey shows that Ukrainians are not ready to unequivocally perceive China as an ally. For many, it remains an alienated state, and a significant share of negative assessments is explained by the global political context and lack of trust. At the same time, economic cooperation is so extensive that it could become the basis for a gradual change in public opinion in the future,” he added.
The poll is part of a broader study that analyzes international sympathies and antipathies of Ukrainians in the current geopolitical environment.
The full video can be viewed here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgC9TPnMoMI&t
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here:
https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ACTIVE GROUP, CHINA, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Poznyi, SOCIOLOGY, TRADE, URAKIN
Turkey remains one of the most positively perceived countries in the region for Ukrainians, driven by both political and economic factors. This is evidenced by the results of an all-Ukrainian survey conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Experts Club information and analytical center in August 2025.
According to the survey, 52.3% of Ukrainian citizens have a positive attitude towards Turkey (43.3% – mostly positive, 9.0% – completely positive). Only 8.0% of respondents expressed a negative attitude (7.3% – mostly negative, 0.7% – completely negative). Another 38.3% of Ukrainians are neutral, and 1.7% admitted that they do not know enough about this country.
“For Ukraine, Turkey is not just a neighbor across the Black Sea, but a strategic partner with whom we have established close trade and economic ties. In the first half of 2025, the volume of bilateral trade exceeded $4.66 billion, of which exports from Ukraine amounted to more than $2.58 billion and imports from Turkey amounted to about $2.08 billion. The positive balance of more than $500 million shows that these relations are beneficial for the Ukrainian economy,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
In his turn, Oleksandr Poznyi, co-founder of Active Group, noted that the high level of positive assessments is explained not only by economic factors.
“Turkey is actively supporting Ukraine, which cannot be ignored by society. At the same time, the tourist destination, cultural contacts, and historical proximity through the Black Sea region create an additional level of sympathy among Ukrainians. This allows Turkey to occupy a consistently high position among the countries friendly to Ukraine,” he added.
The survey was part of a broader study of international sympathies and antipathies of Ukrainians in the current geopolitical context.
The full video can be viewed here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgC9TPnMoMI&t
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here:
https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Poznyi, SOCIOLOGY, TRADE, TURKEY, URAKIN
Poland remains one of the most positively perceived countries by Ukrainians, despite some controversies in bilateral relations. This is evidenced by the results of an all-Ukrainian survey conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Experts Club information and analytical center in August 2025.
According to the survey, 56.7% of Ukrainian citizens have a positive attitude towards Poland (44.3% – mostly positive, 12.3% – completely positive). Only 12.7% of respondents expressed a negative attitude (11.3% – mostly negative, 1.3% – completely negative). Another 30.0% of Ukrainians are neutral, and 1.0% said they are not sufficiently aware of this country.
“For Ukrainians, Poland is not only a neighbor, but also one of their key economic partners. In the first half of 2025, total trade between Ukraine and Poland exceeded $6.66 billion. At the same time, exports from Ukraine amounted to $3.03 billion, and imports from Poland exceeded $3.62 billion. The negative balance of $591 million does not seem critical, given the scale and strategic nature of cooperation,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
In turn, co-founder of Active Group Oleksandr Poznyi emphasized that the positive attitude of Ukrainians towards Poland has deeper reasons than just the economy.
“We are talking about historical proximity, support for Ukrainian refugees, and Warsaw’s political solidarity in important international issues. At the same time, the economic dimension only strengthens these relations, making Poland one of Ukraine’s leading partners both in the EU and globally. It is the combination of political, humanitarian and economic components that explains the high level of sympathy in society,” he added.
The survey was part of a broader study of international sympathies and antipathies of Ukrainians in the current geopolitical context.
The full video can be viewed here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgC9TPnMoMI&t
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here:
https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, POLAND, Posniy, SOCIOLOGY, TRADE, URAKIN
Ukrainians have the most positive attitude toward Germany, the UK, Norway, and France, while Hungary, China, Iraq, and Serbia are among the countries with the worst ratings. This is evidenced by the results of a study conducted by Active Group and the Experts Club analytical center at the end of August.
“We conducted a representative survey of 800 respondents at the end of August, taking into account gender, age, and region of residence. The margin of error does not exceed 3.5%. This is not the first study of this type, but this time we selected 50 countries based on economic criteria – we asked about the countries with which Ukraine trades the most,” said sociologist and founder of Active Group Andriy Yeremenko at a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Tuesday.
According to him, the study showed that public opinion is clearly divided between Western countries and countries outside the West.
“Ukrainians most often associate the achievement of peace with the European Union – 42% of respondents believe this. The United States is supported by almost 26% of respondents, and the United Kingdom by 13%. Other large countries, such as China, India, and Brazil, are not really considered to be contributing to a peaceful settlement in Ukraine,” Yeremenko emphasized.
Alexander Pozniy, director of the research company Active Group, added that in economic terms, Ukraine’s key partners are China, Poland, Germany, Turkey, and the United States.
“At the same time, attitudes toward them vary greatly. For example, more than 76% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude toward Germany, while only 12% have a positive attitude toward China, and 40% have a negative attitude. The case of Hungary is even more critical, with 16% having a positive attitude and 55% having a negative attitude,” he said.
Maksym Urakyn, founder of Experts Club and deputy director general of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, drew attention to economic imbalances in Ukraine’s trade with its leading partners.
“In the first half of 2025, Ukraine’s foreign trade deficit amounted to $18.5 billion, while in 2024 it was $12.4 billion. In other words, we have a significant deterioration. In particular, the negative balance exceeded $7 billion in trade with China alone, $2 billion with Germany, over $1 billion with Poland, and about $2 billion with the United States,” the expert emphasized.
He clarified that Ukraine remains a powerful exporter of agricultural products—grains, oilseeds, metals—while imports from the EU and China consist mainly of machinery, equipment, transport, electronics, and chemicals.
“This once again confirms the need for profound structural changes in the economy and diversification of foreign economic relations. We cannot continue to depend on a narrow circle of suppliers,” Urakin noted.
At the same time, according to the expert, sociological data demonstrate a certain paradox.
“The most economically advantageous partners for us are Egypt, Spain, Moldova, Algeria, Lebanon, and Iraq. But Ukrainians’ attitude toward most of these countries is neutral or even negative. This indicates that society forms its assessments not on the basis of economic benefits, but mainly on the basis of political statements or events,” he added.
Urakin concluded that this discrepancy between the economy and public opinion could have long-term consequences for Ukraine’s foreign policy.
“The representative offices of foreign countries that are Ukraine’s trading partners should pay more attention to working with Ukrainian society, holding cultural events, supporting humanitarian projects, and forming a positive image. Otherwise, we will continue to have a situation where the country is an important trading partner, but at the same time is perceived negatively by the majority of citizens,” emphasized the founder of Experts Club.
Learn more about the study
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/press-conference/1103619.html
ACTIVE GROUP, EXPERTS CLUB, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, Pozniy, PUBLIC OPINION, SOCIOLOGY, SURVEY, URAKIN, Єременко
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of April 2025.
The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE).
Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
The first four months of 2025 were marked by weak but still positive economic growth for Ukraine. According to the NBU’s estimates, real GDP grew by about +0.5% year-on-year, and the State Statistics Service’s preliminary calculations later revised the dynamics to about +0.9% year-on-year and approximately +0.7% quarter-on-quarter. In the context of full-scale war, constant threats to infrastructure and logistics, a shortage of long-term capital, and limited investment programs, this primarily means maintaining the functionality of the economic system.
“Half a percent or even a percent of growth is not about acceleration, but about endurance. We are seeing a revival of domestic demand in trade, logistics, and certain high-tech niches. But this is essentially a recovery “on the spot”: without a massive investment impulse, without an expansion of value-added exports, without accessible long-term resources, banks and businesses will not be able to scale up. We need to move from survival to development — through investment, industrial projects, and an export ecosystem,” emphasizes Maksim Urakin.
Inflationary pressure is slowly easing. Annual inflation in April was estimated at around 13.1% y/y after 14.6% in March; the National Bank kept its key rate at 15.5%, combining inflation targeting with currency market stabilization.
“Monetary policy in 2025 is about balance. If we tighten too much, we will stifle business activity and lending; if we loosen too much, we will get a new wave of inflation and pressure on the exchange rate. The NBU’s task is not simply to “hold” the rate, but to synchronize with fiscal policy, IMF programs, and the pace of external revenues so that every hryvnia of reserves works toward recovery rather than plugging operational holes,” the expert notes.
Foreign trade remains a weak link. In January–April 2025, exports of goods were estimated at about $13.31 billion, imports at about $24.82 billion, and the negative balance at about $11.51 billion. Structurally, imports are made up of energy carriers, equipment, transport, and chemicals, while exports continue to depend on raw materials and semi-finished products.
“This is not a situational but a structural deficit. As long as we import energy-intensive goods and technological components and export raw materials, the risk to the balance of payments will not disappear. The solution lies in creating production chains within the country, localizing components, advancing the development of logistics and port infrastructure, insuring military risks, and insuring export credits. We need a policy of export industrial transformation, not just “VAT refunds,” emphasizes Maksim Urakin.
International reserves remain a positive buffer, reaching a historic high of about $46.7 billion on May 1, 2025. The growth was ensured by inflows from partners and a reduction in net interventions by the NBU.
“Reserves of over $40 billion are a safety net, but they are not the country’s wealth. Reserves are a credit of trust that must be converted into industrial modernization. If we dissolve this resource in consumption and imports, it will run out, and structural problems will remain. If we direct it towards financing exports, investment insurance, infrastructure, and technology, we will get a multiplier and productivity growth,” the economist emphasizes.
The debt burden also remains high: the total public and guaranteed debt as of April 30, 2025, was estimated at about UAH 7.48 trillion (equivalent to almost $180 billion). This supports budget stability “here and now,” but makes coordination with international programs, debt restructuring, and the launch of projects that generate foreign exchange earnings critically important.
“Debt is not the enemy when it works for development. Our test of maturity is to convert debt resources into productive investments rather than consumption. We need transparent project pipelines: from feasibility studies to long-term money under state guarantees, from export insurance to industrial parks and clusters. This is the only way we will break the inertia of import dependence,” concludes the founder of Experts Club.
Global economy
At the start of the second quarter of 2025, the world is moving in a mode of moderate growth with increased uncertainty. In its April WEO, the IMF estimated global GDP growth in 2025 at around 2.8% with inflation slowly subsiding but uneven demand geography. In the US, real GDP in the first quarter, based on annualized methodology, declined by approximately 0.3% q/q due to “re-imports” and weaker government spending, while core PCE inflation in April remained at around 2.2% y/y, allowing the Fed to maintain a cautious stance.
China maintained around +5.3% y/y in the first quarter, but weakness in real estate and consumer caution limit the prospects for acceleration.
The eurozone, according to preliminary estimates at the end of April, added around +0.4% q/q (+1.2% y/y), and the EU around +0.3% q/q, showing the first signs of emerging from prolonged stagnation. The UK was a positive exception among the G7, with approximately +0.7% q/q in the first quarter. Turkey reported strong growth of around +7.4% y/y amid extremely high inflation of around 70% y/y in April, forcing the central bank to maintain a tight policy. India remains the leader among the major economies with around +7.4% y/y at the beginning of the year, with moderate CPI inflation of around 3.3% in April.
Brazil posted around +0.8% q/q (+2.6% y/y) in the first quarter, but IPCA inflation rose to around 5.5% y/y, limiting the scope for rapid policy easing.
The global picture is a mosaic of different speeds and different risks. The US is technically having a weak quarter, but domestic demand is still holding up; Europe is showing a smooth recovery without a breakthrough; China is on track for growth but needs a new model of domestic demand; India is the flagship of dynamism and innovation; Turkey has paid for its momentum with inflation; Latin America is balancing between regulation and stimulation. For Ukraine, it is not only the figures of its partners that are important, but also their policies: where they buy more steel and food, where they build logistics and energy infrastructure, where opportunities open up for suppliers of engineering products. Our task is to predict not past but future demand and occupy a niche before someone else does. This means export risk insurance, fast customs corridors, long-term money for modernization, cluster specialization, and, most importantly, discipline in execution. Without this, we will remain a country of imports and large reserves that are melting away. With this, we can become a country of exports and large projects that work,” summarizes Maksim Urakin.
Key conclusions
In summary, at the beginning of the second quarter, the Ukrainian economy is in a phase of sustained equilibrium: modest growth, slowing inflation, and record reserves are counterbalanced by a deep trade gap and high debt burden. The solution lies in accelerating structural changes: investment in industry and logistics, high value-added exports, coordination with international programs, and transforming debt resources into a driver of productivity. As Maksim Urakin emphasizes, “the window of opportunity for transformation is already open — the only question is whether we will be able to pass through it quickly enough.”
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1101077.html
