The decline in the real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year will slow down to 19% from 35% and 30.8%, respectively, in the fourth and third quarters of 2022, such is the forecast of the National Bank Ukraine has published the Inflation Report on its website.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded its forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 to 1% from 8%, which it expected in September last year, according to the updated Regional Economic Prospects published on Thursday.
Losses in annual GDP growth in 2023 will amount to 1.9 percentage points (p.p.), taking into account the positive effect of 0.5 p.p. due to the use of generators by businesses, and in 2024 losses will decrease to 0.6 p.p. thanks to the gradual recovery of the system, according to the baseline scenario of the macroeconomic forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in 2022 increased by 2.3 times compared to 2021 – to $11.125 billion from $4.771 billion, the State Statistics Service reported on Tuesday.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in January 2022 accelerated to 0.8% from 0.7% in December and November, which, however, is significantly lower than 2.5% in October and 1.9% in September. According to it, in January last year, inflation was 1.3%, so in annual terms, in January 2023, it decreased to 26% from 26.6%.
As of February 15, foreign aid accounted for 68.8% of the sources of financing the state budget deficit since the beginning of this year, Head of the Verkhovna Rada budget committee Roksolana Pidlasa told Interfax-Ukraine.
The majority of members of the monetary policy committee of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) at a meeting on January 25 noted that they consider the base key policy rate forecast to be realistic with it remaining at the level of up to 25% until at least the first quarter of 2024, the NBU website reported.
In January, Ukraine exported 25% less agricultural products through the grain corridor than in December due to the deliberate actions of Russian inspectors to delay vessels in the Bosphorus.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in January-September 2022 decreased by 56.5% compared to the same period in 2021, to UAH 66.3 billion, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
The fall in real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2022 is estimated at 30.4% [±2%], which is better than preliminary forecasts, the Economy Ministry said. After falling by about 30% in 2022, the Ukrainian economy may lose from zero to 5% this year if the hot phase of the war continues until the third quarter, but next year its growth will exceed 10%, founder and head of Dragon Capital investment company Tomas Fiala gave such a macro forecast.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will worsen the forecast estimate of real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2023 from 4% to 1-3.3%, while inflation by the end of the year will slow down growth to 19-21%, bankers polled by Interfax-Ukraine believe.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its forecast for the growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 to 0.3% from 4% in the previous forecast, which is largely due to the extension of the base scenario with a full-scale war for another six months – until the beginning of 2024.
The Ministry of Economy confirms the forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 by 3.2%, despite the worsening of its forecast by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) from 4% to 0.3% this week, First Deputy Minister Denys Kudin has said.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2022 grew 2.3-fold compared to the same period in 2021, to $8.524 billion from $3.635 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.
Inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 27.5% in December, but remained below the October forecast of the National Bank (30%), according to the macroeconomic and monetary review published by the NBU.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine in December 2022 remained at the level of November – 0.7% compared to 2.5% in October, 1.9% in September and 1.1% in August, returning to July level, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported.
State budget expenditures to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the form of the purchase of military equipment, weapons, ammunition, defense products, and personal protective equipment in December amounted to UAH 38 billion (11.5% of all expenditures) compared to 18.4 UAH billion in November (7%) and UAH 35.9 billion in October (16.1%).
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, the grain harvest in Ukraine in 2023 will be about 49.5 million tonnes, which is better than the estimate of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) at 46 million tonnes, First Deputy Minister Denys Kudin told.
PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
Last year thanks to the efforts of the association Ukrsadvindindprom and some Ukrainian wine producers, Ukraine after a 14-year break regained its membership in the International Organization of Vine and Wine (IOVW, International Organization of Vine and Wine).
On the 9-10th of March 2023 in France the General Assembly of IOVW took place, in which the representative from Ukraine, the head of the Public Association “The Association of Gardens, Winegrowers and Wine-makers of Ukraine” Volodymyr Pechko took part.
International Organization of Winegrowing and Winemaking is an intergovernmental organization, established according to the Treaty of April 3rd, 2001. IOVW is successor of the Intergovernmental Organisation – International Bureau of Vine and Wine (BIVW), set up according to an agreement of eight countries (France, Spain, Tunisia, Portugal, Hungary, Luxembourg, Greece and Italy) in Paris on November 29, 1924.
The organization provides recommendations to the wine-growing and wine-making industries, which are adopted by the European Community, thus emphasizing the influence of the IOWAV on the regulation and trade processes (EU countries produce about 70% of the world’s wine).
The organization’s main objectives are:
– The health benefits and quality of wine;
– protection of interests of the wine industry and creation of favorable market conditions;
– harmonization of standards and compliance of analysis methods;
– protection of geographical indications;
– guarantee of purity and origin of products;
– combating fraud and unfair competition.
Currently, Ukrainian scientists, including representatives of the scientific center “Tairov Institute of Viticulture and Winemaking” actively work in the committees of the IOVV NAAS of Ukraine.
According to IOVW, there are 47 countries in the world today that produce wine on an industrial scale. However, not all of these countries have individual states or regions that are specifically designated as wine producing. The top five largest wine-producing states include Italy, France, Spain, the United States and Argentina. These five countries account for more than half of the world’s wine production. It is worth noting that the ranking can change from year to year depending on factors such as weather conditions, yields and demand.
“According to historical data, until 1991, Ukraine was one of the largest wine-producing regions of Europe. At the same time, Ukrainian winemaking was integrated into the Soviet wine industry along with Georgia and Moldova. In the late 1980s, wine production in Ukraine peaked at about 120 million decaliters per year, which was about one-third of total wine production in the Soviet Union. By comparison, production in 2020 was about 35 million decaliters,” explained Volodymyr Pechko, head of the Ukrsadvinprom association.
He also reminded that in the first years of independence, huge wineries became uncompetitive and lost the market, which led to a crisis of the entire industry.
“In recent years, winemaking began to revive largely due to small wineries and wine tourism in our country. But everyone is now hamstrung by war, so the way out for all of us is to find new markets for our products,” Pechko stressed.
As of February 1, 2022, the total area of vine plantations in Ukraine by all categories of farms amounted to 34.0 thousand hectares, gross harvest of grapes – 257.5 thousand tons. However, after the outbreak of hostilities, almost a quarter of the area under vineyards are temporarily occupied or are in the war zone.
In turn, the deputy head of the association “Ukrsadvinprom” Maksim Urakin noted that Ukraine can produce and export a much larger volume of wine than today.
“In January 2023, Ukraine produced 422 thousand decaliters of wine, with about 328 thousand decaliters sold on the domestic market during the same period. And taking into account the fact that during winter months the production level is lower due to seasonal factor, the export potential of Ukrainian winemaking remains significant”, – said Urakin.
According to the expert, finding partners and entering new markets is not an easy thing to do as there is fierce competition in this segment.
“Most of the major wine producing countries support their producers and encourage them to export. Ukraine will not be able to establish itself as a major winemaking country without systematic government support for domestic producers and without the search for new markets and participation in exhibitions, forums and conferences. Situationally, the industry may also be helped by the fact that because of the hostilities, millions of our citizens were forced to go abroad, where they became local consumers. Including through them we can increase the export of our goods, including wine”, – says Urakin.
This year, representatives of Ukrsadvinprom association and leading Ukrainian winemakers are taking part in ProWein international exhibition on behalf of Ukraine.
This year the exhibition will take place from March 19 to 21. Ukrainian stand will feature products of 10 winemakers under the common brand Wines of Ukraine:
1. Beykush Winery (Nikolaev region)
2. Father’s Wine VB (Ternopil region)
3. Prince Trubetskoy Winery (Kherson region)
4. Chateau Chizay (Transcarpathian region)
5. Stakhovsky Wines (Transcarpathian region)
6. Biologist Craft Winery (Kyiv region)
7. Colonist Winery (Odessa region / Southern Bessarabia)
8. Villa Tinta (Odessa region / Southern Bessarabia)
9. My Wine by Eduard Gorodetsky (Odessa region)
10. 46 Parallel Wine Group (Odessa region).
International exhibition ProWein is one of the largest and most important wine and spirits exhibitions in the world, which is held annually in Dusseldorf, Germany. The event attracts thousands of exhibitors and visitors from all over the world, including wineries, wine merchants, sommeliers and industry professionals. ProWein is hosted by Messe Düsseldorf, the leading organizer of international trade fairs, and usually takes place over three days in March. A wide range of products, including wines, spirits, beer and soft drinks, as well as accessories such as glassware and wine storage solutions, are on display.
One of the key features of ProWein is an extensive program of seminars, tastings and master classes designed to showcase the latest trends and developments in the wine and spirits industry. These events are led by experts from around the world and cover a wide range of topics, from viticulture and winemaking to marketing and sales.
Interfax-Ukraine – information partner of the events
exhibition_wine, MOOVV, ProWein 2023, UKRSADVINPROM, URAKIN, WINE, wine_Ukraine, WINEMAKING, Wines of Ukraine, ПЕЧКО
At the end of 2022, 6 Ukrainian junior squash players are in the top 10 in their age categories.
In 2022, the Ukrainian sport, despite the war, not only survived, but also continued to develop. Our athletes in this difficult time continue to please us with decent results in the international arena. And if in such popular sports as soccer and boxing we managed to maintain the pre-war development potential, many lesser-known disciplines encountered significant difficulties last year. We can mention here the cancellation or postponement of competitions, as well as the disruption of the training process.
Squash, on the whole, successfully coped with the challenges of 2022, maintaining a positive momentum of development. In August, on the courts of the capital fitness center “SPORT LIFE” there was a charity tournament “Zenit Ukraine Open 2022”. Athletes from Romania, the United States, Moldova, Lithuania as well as players from many regions of Ukraine competed for awards in five categories.
The organizers of the largest squash tournament in Ukraine are planning to hold it this year as well.
“We hope that our Zenit tournament will return this year to the sunny Odessa from which it had to move to Kiev due to the military action,” said one of the organizers of this squash tournament, Maxim Urakin.
Very good results on the courts of international tournaments are shown by Ukrainian juniors. In particular, six Ukrainian athletes are in the top 10 in their age categories. Dmytro Scherbakov, who currently occupies the second position in the world ranking of young squash players BU19, was able to achieve the greatest result last year.
You can find more details about the positions of Ukrainian juniors in the world squash rankings in the infographic:
As Dmitry Shcherbakov, the head of racquet sports of the SportLife network, stated, in 2022 our juniors proved that they are one of the strongest in Europe.
“At the team championship of Europe-2022 among juniors to 17 years, our squash players got the bronze medal, leaving behind only England and France,” – Shcherbakov said.
Vyacheslav Savelov, children and juniors squash coach, thanked everyone who supported the sport in 2022.
“Many thanks to sponsors, patrons, coaches, parents of our children and all those who supported and supported Ukrainian squash and our athletes during this difficult time,” – he stressed.
The high results of our athletes in the youth and adult ratings give hope for the successful development of squash in Ukraine in 2023.
An exclusive interview of Interfax-Ukraine and Ukraine in Arabic with Ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to Ukraine Mohammed bin Suleiman al-Mashar
Text by:
Mohammad Farajallah (editor-in-chief of the agency Ukraine in Arabic)
Maksim Urakin (Interfax-Ukraine)
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan arrived in Kyiv on a surprise visit, met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other officials, and agreed on a previously announced aid package. Are there any changes in Riyadh’s position on the war in Ukraine, especially since the Kingdom has been criticized for siding with Russia in the war against Ukraine?
Under the guidance of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud – God bless him – and under the guidance of His Royal Highness Crown Prince and Prime Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz – God bless him – the Kingdom is eager to provide humanitarian and emergency assistance to countries affected by natural or humanitarian disasters, and to provide support to all countries and peoples without discrimination or any other motives, based on the awareness of Saudi Arabia of the importance of its humanitarian role at the international level.
His Highness the Crown Prince pays great attention to the implementation of humanitarian efforts along with political efforts with various countries to achieve a peaceful solution to end the Russian-Ukrainian war as part of His Highness’s desire to achieve regional and global security, peace and stability.
Your Excellency, is a position of neutrality considered positive in such crises? What role can neutral states play?
The neutral and balanced position of Saudi Arabia in the Russian-Ukrainian war contributed to the success of the mediation led by His Highness the Crown Prince on purely humanitarian principles, which led to the release of ten foreign captives – citizens of the Kingdom of Morocco, the United States, the United Kingdom, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Sweden and the Republic of Croatia, who were held captive by the armed forces of Russia.
In October 2022, the Kingdom announced a humanitarian aid package for Ukraine, which is in line with Saudi Arabia’s position in supporting countries and peoples that are prone to various crises. What role does Saudi Arabia play in the world in humanitarian matters?
The Kingdom’s $400 million humanitarian aid initiative for Ukraine, including power generators and medical supplies, is significant in light of the humanitarian conditions facing the Ukrainian people, especially during the harsh winter.
Previously, the Kingdom provided through the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre, the World Health Organization and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees $10 million worth of medical assistance and shelter materials intended for Ukrainian refugees in Poland.
In recent years, Saudi Arabia has provided over $96 billion worth of humanitarian aid to 156 countries.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always been among the top ten countries in the world for aid, and in 2021, the Kingdom ranked third in the world for humanitarian aid.
Your Excellency, may I ask what the Kingdom provided to the citizens of Ukraine who were on its territory during the war?
After the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the competent authorities in the Kingdom, by royal decrees and for humanitarian reasons, took the initiative to extend the visas of Ukrainian tourists, businessmen and families in the Kingdom for a period of three months with the possibility of extending them without charging any fees or fines.
His Highness the Crown Prince, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman held a telephone conversation with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy in October 2022 and reaffirmed the Kingdom’s position in support of everything that contributes to de-escalation and the country’s readiness to continue mediation efforts. Can we rely on foreign mediation to end the war in Ukraine?
Since the beginning of the war, the Kingdom has taken a balanced position regarding the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. It was welcomed by both countries, which have strong relations with Saudi Arabia in several areas. The Crown Prince seeks to use this relationship to reach a peaceful solution to the war.
Since the beginning of the crisis, His Highness has been mediating efforts between the two countries to reach a political solution to end the war as his contribution to maintaining international security and stability. Saudi Arabia supports international efforts to reduce tensions and escalation between Russia and Ukraine, as well as to initiate measures to ensure the restoration of stability and create conditions for negotiations leading to a peaceful and political solution to the crisis based on the Charter of the United Nations and the principles of international law.
Saudi Arabia was among 141 countries that voted in favor of a UN resolution to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine. Can this position affect relations between Riyadh and Moscow?
The position of the Kingdom and its vote in support of the United Nations resolutions adopted regarding the Ukrainian crisis stems from the commitment to the need for all countries to comply with the Charter of the United Nations and the principles of international law and our complete rejection of any violation of the sovereignty of all countries. The Kingdom declared a clear position on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, based on the principles of international law. It reaffirmed its support for all efforts aimed at resolving the Ukrainian crisis through dialogue and diplomacy, as well as continuing to work on the implementation of the agreements concluded between the parties concerned and approved by the Security Council in Resolution 2202 on regional security and conflict settlement in eastern Ukraine.
The visit to Kyiv of His Highness the Minister of Foreign Affairs was called historical. Do you agree with this characterization?
The visit of His Highness Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud to Kyiv and his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is considered historic. On the one hand, this is the first visit of an Arab foreign minister to Ukraine since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and on the other hand, the first visit of a Saudi Arabian foreign minister to Ukraine since the beginning of diplomatic relations between the two countries over thirty years ago.
His Excellency the President of Ukraine justifiably called it historic. In fact, we are very grateful to His Excellency for all his friendly statements about Saudi Arabia. I also hope that this visit will give a new impetus to intensify our mutual dialogue in order to develop bilateral relations.
Can you tell us the details of communication and negotiation?
Support by the Kingdom of everything that contributes to de-escalation, protection of civilians, a serious search for political solutions through negotiations, support for all international efforts aimed at resolving the political crisis, as well as opportunities for expanding cooperation between the two friendly countries and ways to support and develop them in many areas. In addition, we discussed the development of the situation in the regional and international arenas.
Can you tell us about the content of the agreements signed during the visit?
During the visit of His Highness Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, two documents were signed in the President’s Office of Ukraine as documentation of the package of Saudi Arabian assistance to Ukraine in the humanitarian sphere, the decision to allocate a separate support package in the amount of $400 million.
Supervisor General of the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre Abdullah Al Rabeeah and Deputy Prime Minister for Reconstruction of Ukraine and Minister of Communities, Regions and Infrastructure Development Oleksandr Kubrakov signed a joint program of cooperation between the Ministry of Communities, Regions and Infrastructure Development the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre in the amount of $100 million. CEO of the Saudi Fund for Development Sultan Abdulrahman Al-Marshad and Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Haluschenko signed a Memorandum of Understanding regarding a $300 million Saudi grant to finance oil derivatives.
Top managers of the largest Wall Street banks in recent days gave more optimistic assessments of the prospects for the U.S. economy compared with previous forecasts, writes the Financial Times.
In particular, bankers now see a higher probability that the Federal Reserve will be able to provide a so-called “soft landing,” that is, to combat high inflation, while managing to avoid recession.
“The consensus among corporate executives has shifted slightly in a more positive direction. The sagging economy is now expected to be milder than many expected six months ago,” Goldman Sachs Group chief David Solomon said Tuesday at an event hosted by Credit Suisse.
A positive tone also prevailed in a speech by Bank of America Corp. Brian Moynihan, who noted the high consumer activity and resilient profitability of mid-cap companies.
“Consumers have money. They have jobs, they’re spending money and taking out loans,” Moynihan said at a conference on financial services.
Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Michael Santomassimo also pointed to “very good consumer spending data.”
Such comments contrasted with statements by bank executives last year when they expressed serious concerns about the state of the U.S. economy, notes the FT.
Despite the growth of optimism, grounds for concern remain. In particular, the head of Goldman Sachs said that the future trajectory of inflation is still unclear, high rates of growth in consumer prices can be observed for quite some time, which will affect the economy as a whole.
“I think we’re going to see weaker, slower growth for a while,” Solomon said.
Earlier, the Club of Experts consolidated and analyzed economic indicators of Ukraine and the world, more details in the video at the link
