Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 will decrease by 33%, the main factors of the decline will be massive losses in production, demand and exports, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast of the analytical department of Alfa-Bank Ukraine.
Ukraine’s GDP will fall by 30% in 2022, and the country’s economy will grow by 25% next year, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) published such an updated forecast, while in March it estimated this year’s decline at 20%, and growth in the next year at 23%.
Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will fall by 30%, subject to a protracted war until the end of the year, and subject to a truce and the possible opening of ports – by 22-25%, such estimates were voiced by Dragon Capital Head Tomas Fiala.
Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will decrease by 30%, however, the unblocking of seaports would reduce the economic decline to 22-25%, Olena Bilan, chief economist at Dragon Capital, believes.
S&P Global Ratings lowered its foreign currency long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Ukraine to ‘CCC+/C’ from ‘B-/B’, the rating agency said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-March 2022 decreased by 40 times compared to the same period in 2021 – to $31.6 million from $1.272 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in April this year amounted to $191 million compared to a $900 million positive balance in March, the State Customs Service said.
According to its data and previously released data from the State Statistics Service, imports in April increased by about 63.3% compared to March, to $2.87 billion, while exports increased by only 0.8%, to $2.67 billion.
Inflation in Ukraine in annual terms in April may increase to 15.9% from 13.7% in March, this forecast was given by Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Kyrylo Shevchenko, referring to the NBU estimates based on web-scraping (a method of collecting prices from online supermarkets).
Ukraine’s total state debt in April grew by 0.84% in U.S. dollars to $97.62 billion, in hryvnias – by 0.84% to UAH 2.855 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
During the three months of the war, the construction industry of Ukraine has decreased more than 70%, despite the dot resumption of work at construction sites in Ukraine, while the cost of construction has increased by 20%, Director General of the Kovalska Industrial-Construction Group Serhiy Pylypenko has said.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
Video dedicated to macro economic figures is available via link https://youtu.be/dwh7Q6aZZBA
The Club of Experts YouTube channel has released a new video dedicated to the prospects for the development of the volunteer movement in Ukraine after the start of the war and solving the main problems that our citizens may face when bringing humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
According to Maxim Urakin, the founder of the Club of Experts, the humanitarian situation that arose in Ukraine after the outbreak of hostilities forced tens of thousands of people to volunteer.
“At the same time, many people faced with the incomprehensibility of the processes of crossing the border and importing certain goods into the country,” the expert emphasized.
In his commentary, the head of the International Technology Transfer Association (ITTA), Artem Goncharenko, noted that when organizing volunteer assistance, one should understand what needs the recipients of volunteer assistance have. At the same time, in his opinion, individual and general requests of both military and ordinary citizens should be distributed.
“It is important to understand that we cannot offer a single universal solution. Need a personal approach (…). At the same time, different volunteer organizations should unite to improve the coordination of work,” he said.
In turn, Evgenia Litvinova, Chair of the Ukrainian Exporters’ Club, analyzed the latest legislative changes that have greatly simplified the delivery of international humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
In their presentation, the experts provided a detailed explanation on the following problematic issues:
– Who has the right to bring humanitarian aid to Ukraine?
– On the basis of what documents can humanitarian aid be imported?
– What changes have been introduced when filling out customs declarations?
– What shipping documents do you need to have when crossing the border?
For more details, see the video on the YouTube channel “Expert Club” at the link:
EXPERT CLUB, GONCHARENKO, HUMANITARIAN AID, IMPORT, LITVINOVA, URAKIN
Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will fall by 45.1%, the World Bank predicts, recalling that before the Russian invasion, it expected the Ukrainian economy to grow by 3.2% this year.
The Ukrainian economy is expected to contract by 35% in 2022, although precise measures of the damage to the Ukrainian economy are impossible to obtain, according to the updated World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund released.
The Ministry of Finance expects a fall in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 ranging from 35% to 50%, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko has said.
Due to the war unleashed by Russia, Ukraine’s gross public debt will increase to 86.2% of GDP in 2022 after declining from 61% of GDP to 49% of GDP last year, this forecast is given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 will be about 33% according to the base scenario, in which the war will last for another month and a half at the most, Oleksandr Pecheritsyn, a leading analyst at Raiffeisen Bank (Kyiv), said.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-March 2022 decreased by 40 times compared to the same period in 2021 – to $31.6 million from $1271.6 million.
The rise of consumer prices in Ukraine in March 2022 accelerated to 4.5% from 1.6% in February, while 1.3% in January and 0.6% in December, the State Statistics Service has said.
Inflation in Ukraine by the end of 2022 may exceed 20% due to the consequences of a full-scale war, but it will be controlled, the National Bank of Ukraine said.
Due to the war unleashed by Russia, Ukraine’s gross public debt will increase to 86.2% of GDP in 2022 after declining from 61% of GDP to 49% of GDP last year, this forecast is given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The transport enterprises of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the JFO zone) in 2021 increased transportation of goods by 3.3% compared to 2020 – up to 619.9 million tonnes.
About 23% of Ukrainian retailers’ outlets are closed, most of the non-operating facilities are in the entertainment segment, according to a survey by the Association of Retailers of Ukraine.
“As of April 20, some 11,744 stores out of 15,263 that were open at the time of the start of full-scale aggression were operating. That is, 23% less – 3,521 are closed. Compared to March, the situation is improving, since then the relative loss of retail was 29.4% – 4,481 store,” the association said. Fresh review dedicated to macro economic figures is available via link https://youtu.be/dwh7Q6aZZBA
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
Ukrainian volunteers are faced with the problem of bringing humanitarian aid into the country, representatives of volunteer organizations have said during a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Thursday.
“Now there are enough donors on the territory of the European Union who are interested in providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but they need the Ukrainian side to take it. Because of this, Ukrainian public organizations refuse humanitarian aid or transfer it to other organizations, as they cannot cover the cost logistics component of the delivery,” Head of the Ukrainian Exporters Club Yevhenia Lytvynova said.
Commenting on the transfer of thermal imagers and quadrocopters to Ukraine, she noted that such goods require a letter of guarantee from the end user, the author of which can only be a military command body of the Ministry of Defense or another military formation.
In turn, Head of the International Technology Transfer Association (ITTA) Artem Honcharenko said that the Ukrainian army today needs medicines, in particular hemostatic drugs, as well as drugs against ulcers, diarrhea, dysbacteriosis, and a runny nose.
He stressed that there is currently a strong demand for anthelmintic drugs, flea, tick, mosquito and antifungal drugs. In addition, the Ukrainian army requires basic medicines such as paracetamol, ibuprofen, as well as syringes, bandages and elastic bandages.
In turn, Director of the Center of the Academy of Construction of Ukraine Ivan Perehinets announced plans to create an international fund Ukraine to finance the construction of houses for people who lost their homes due to the Russian invasion.
“More than a million families were left without housing… We are now in the process of registering the Ukraine International Construction Fund, which will deal with the construction of houses,” Perehinets said.
In turn, Head of the International Relations Department of Kontramarka Help Oleksiy Honcharov announced plans to purchase a mobile field hospital.
“We are currently working on a mobile hospital that can drive close enough to the front line, deploy in a matter of minutes and provide full first aid,” Honcharov said.
According to him, such a field hospital was found in Turkey and funds are being collected for its subsequent purchase. The hospital is partly financed by charitable contributions from concerts held, most organized with the support of Kontramarka.
President of the Ukrainian Association of District and Regional Councils Serhiy Chernov said that on February 15, based on information from foreign colleagues and Ukrainian intelligence, the association decided to create a coordination center to assist local governments in providing humanitarian assistance, studying all possible consequences of hostilities, and working with religious denominations and preparation of documents “on the destruction caused by the Russian Federation, as well as compensation for losses.”
Restaurateur and volunteer Maryan Burmylo announced cooperation with the United States. “Ukrainian volunteers from California organized charitable assistance to medical institutions in Ukraine. Odesa residents Natalia Hryschenko and Oleksiy Buyadzhy (UkrainCA public initiative), with the help of the Mission to Ukraine team, arranged the supply of medicines at the expense of American funds of Cincinnati and Baltimore – sister cities of Ukrainian Kharkiv and Odesa. Aid in the form of the supply of surgical kits is provided by the International Surgical Health Initiative (ISHI, the USA),” he said.
BUYADZHY, CHERNOV, HONCHARENKO, HONCHAROV, HUMANITARIAN AID, PEREHINETS, URAKIN, VOLUNTEERS, ЛИТВИНОВА
In its new video, the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” analyzed the situation in the Ukrainian economy before the start of the Russian aggression. As you know, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has temporarily suspended the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months from the moment it ends. The exception is the publication of data on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021, as well as for the period January-February 2022.
If we return to the indicators of the beginning of the year, at that time we could talk about economic growth and recovery after the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, says the founder of the Club of Experts, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maxim Urakin.
“Officially, the number of unemployed in the country, according to the State Employment Center, as of January 2022, was just over 358,000 people. In this direction, there was a positive trend and the recovery of jobs after the labor market crisis that was caused by the pandemic,” he explained.
In addition, the expert noted that according to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP in 2021 grew by 3.4% after a decline of 3.8% a year earlier. At the same time, there was an increase in industrial production and retail trade within the country.
“Industrial production in Ukraine in 2021 increased by 1.1% after a 5% drop in 2020. At the same time, in 2021, compared to the twentieth, the retail trade turnover increased significantly, by more than ten percent and amounted to more than one trillion four hundred forty-three billion hryvnia,” Urakin added.
All this, according to the founder of the Club of Experts, may indicate that in the pre-war period the country’s economy showed positive indicators of development.
The full video can be viewed on the YouTube channel “Expert Club” at the link:
Attention! People have disappeared in the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions. Please help us find:
1. Rybalko Irina Alexandrovna. 1970 year of birth. Average height. She has poor eyesight and wears glasses. Deaf-mute.
Lives in the city of Kremennaya, st. Titov. Last contacted on April 18, 2022.
Rybalko Alexander Mikhailovich 1971 year of birth. High growth. Deaf-mute. Lives in the city of Kremennaya, st. Titov. Last contacted April 18, 2022.
Ribalko Irina Oleksandrivna
Ribalko Oleksandr Mikhailovich
If you have any information about the whereabouts of Irina and Alexander, please call:
+380663151321 (relatives).
2. Gurin Alexey Mikhailovich. Born 10/10/1950 Was in Kharkov. No communication since February 23, 2022.
Gurin Alexey Mikhailovich
If you have any information about Alexey’s whereabouts, please call:
+380963601842 (Svetlana Derbysheva).
We ask citizens whose relatives do not get in touch to send us all the information. We recommend using the following contact form:
1. Full name of the missing person;
2. Your contact details;
3. Photo of the missing person, description of special features;
4. Approximate place of the last stay of the missing person.
The “Find Your Loved Ones” project is non-commercial, all your appeals will be edited and published free of charge in the media.
We invite colleagues from the media to join the initiative!
The project coordinator is Maxim Urakin, deputy head of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency and publisher of the Open4Business project.
Send information about the missing by e-mail maksim.urakin@gmail.com
