According to Bloomberg, U.S. administration officials are analyzing what a potential spike in oil prices to $200 per barrel would mean for the American economy. The publication’s source links this analysis to an assessment of extreme scenarios for the conflict in the Middle East.
Thus, the claim that the White House is testing its readiness for a $200-per-barrel oil scenario is generally confirmed by the Bloomberg report. However, this currently refers specifically to an internal stress scenario and an assessment of its consequences, rather than a publicly announced forecast or the U.S. administration’s official baseline scenario.
The sharp volatility in the oil market amid the war in the Persian Gulf region provided additional context for this assessment. Reuters reported that on March 24, Brent closed at $102.22 per barrel and WTI at $90.32, after which prices rose again on March 25: Brent climbed to $104.30 and WTI to $92.25.
The key risk for the market is linked to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies pass. Reuters noted that disruptions in this corridor have already become the largest disruption to oil supplies, and further escalation in the Middle East remains the main factor that could push prices significantly higher than current levels.
At the same time, more cautious assessments are being voiced within the administration itself. As Reuters reported on March 12, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called oil at $200 per barrel an unlikely scenario, though he acknowledged that authorities are closely monitoring the situation.
Amid rising prices, Washington has already deployed crisis-response tools. Reuters reported that the U.S. released 45.2 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to companies under a loan program, and earlier the administration also considered other measures to curb prices, including actions in the oil futures market and possible restrictions on fuel exports.
In other words, the information that the U.S. is preparing for an extreme scenario with oil at $200 per barrel is based on a Bloomberg report and fits into the broader context of steps Washington has already taken to mitigate energy risks. However, there is currently no official confirmation that this specific price level is considered the White House’s baseline expectation.
According to Fixygen, the escalation around Iran, including strikes by the US and Israel and Tehran’s subsequent response, has been a factor in increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin fell below $64,000 on the news, while Ethereum fell even further.
At the same time, markets reassessed the risks to commodities and inflation expectations. In particular, Barclays allowed for Brent to rise to $80 per barrel in the event of significant supply disruptions amid tensions between the US and Iran. Against this backdrop, some investors shifted to defensive assets: some materials noted an increase in interest in tokenized gold amid a decline in BTC and ETH.
Possible scenarios: with further escalation and increased oil risks, the crypto market may remain in risk-off mode with increased volatility for longer; with de-escalation and a return of risk appetite, a rebound is likely; if sanctions and payment restrictions are expanded, demand for stablecoins may increase, but compliance risks for infrastructure will also grow.
The US virtual embassy in Iran has urged US citizens to “leave Iran now” if possible and to have a plan to leave independently, without expecting assistance from the US government.
The published warning notes that heightened security measures continue in the country, with road closures, public transport disruptions, and internet blockages. It also points to communication restrictions, including access to mobile and landline networks, and that airlines continue to restrict or cancel flights to and from Iran.
US citizens are advised, if safe to do so, to consider leaving by land, including via Armenia or Turkey, and to make alternative communication arrangements in advance in light of possible internet shutdowns.
The US State Department maintains a Level 4 – Do Not Travel advisory for Iran and separately emphasizes that there is no US embassy in the country and consular assistance is limited; Switzerland acts as the protecting power.
The correction on global markets has intensified: gold has fallen sharply after recent record highs, Bitcoin has dropped to around $84,000, and the US stock market is also declining amid a sell-off in the technology sector.
According to Reuters, the spot price of gold fell more than 4% on Thursday as investors took profits after a surge to historic highs, with prices falling to around $5,150 per ounce.
Bitcoin, at current prices, is down about 5% to $85,000, with the day’s low at around $84,350.
In the US, indices also fell into negative territory: the S&P 500 was down about 1.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1%, with pressure on the market coming in particular from a sharp drop in Microsoft shares after its earnings report. The decline is also confirmed by the dynamics of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which lost about 1% on Thursday.
Standard Chartered analysts estimate that dollar-pegged stablecoins could take around $500 billion in deposits from US banks by the end of 2028, intensifying competition for funding between traditional banks and crypto infrastructure.
Regional credit institutions are considered the most vulnerable in the banking sector, as their revenues are more closely linked to net interest margins (the difference between the return on assets and the cost of deposits), so the outflow of funding has a greater impact on profitability.
The risk mechanism for banks is that the “safe layer” of money is partially transferred from deposits to tokens: payment functions and part of the transaction activity can be transferred to stablecoins, and issuers’ reserves are more often placed not in the banking system, but in US Treasury securities. In particular, according to Standard Chartered’s estimates, the largest issuers, Tether and Circle, hold the bulk of their reserves in US Treasuries, meaning that there is little “redeposit” into banks.
The accelerating factor is regulation. Reuters notes that the federal law on stablecoins passed in the US is expected to encourage their wider use; the document prohibits issuers from paying interest on stablecoins, but banks believe that there is still a “loophole” for paying returns through third parties (e.g., crypto exchanges), which intensifies competition for deposits.
If Standard Chartered’s assessment scenario is confirmed, part of the funding will shift from the banking system to the US government debt market, as the growth of stablecoins increases demand for short-term treasury bills, which are used to secure reserves.
BANK, DEPOSIT, stablecoins, US
US President Donald Trump announced his intention to raise tariffs on a number of goods from South Korea from 15% to 25%, linking this decision to the fact that, according to him, the country’s parliament had failed to fulfill its obligations under a previously agreed trade agreement. According to Reuters, Trump wrote on social media that the increased rates would apply to South Korean cars, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and other goods subject to “reciprocal tariffs.” However, the report did not specify when the increase would take effect.
The South Korean authorities were taken by surprise by the announcement and declared their commitment to implementing the agreements; emergency consultations were held in Seoul, and relevant officials are preparing to contact the American side.
Against the backdrop of the news, South Korea’s KOSPI index fell during trading, then reversed and closed higher, while the won weakened. Hyundai Motor and Kia shares ended the session lower after a more noticeable decline during the day.
We remind you that under the agreement reached in 2025, the tariff on imports of Korean cars and auto components to the US was previously reduced to 15% from 25% and came into effect on November 1
IMPORTS, SOUTH KOREA, TARIFFS, TRUMP, US
