FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) in September raised the forecast for world wheat harvest in 2022 to 787.2 million tons, which is 1% more than was harvested in 2021, according to a summary of the organization.
“And, perhaps, (the indicator) will reach an even higher, record level. This is due to a higher than expected harvest in the European Union and the Russian Federation,” the document says.
In general, world grain production will decrease by 1.7% – to 2 billion 768 million tons, including feed grain – by 2.8%, to 1 billion 468 million tons, “due mainly to unfavorable agrotechnical conditions in the United States “explain FAO experts.
In addition, global rice production in 2022 is expected to reach 512.8 million tonnes, down 2.4% from the all-time high of 2021. The decline in the forecast compared to September is due to a prolonged summer drought, high temperatures in China and flooding in Pakistan, the document says.
As expected, grain consumption in the 2022/2023 agricultural year may decrease by 0.5% – to 2 billion 788 million tons, mainly due to a decrease in feed consumption.
From the beginning of the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, began on July 1-2022) and until September 26, Ukraine exported 7.51 million tons of grain crops, of which 4.23 million tons of corn (56% of total supplies), 2.61 million tons of wheat (35%) and 635 thousand tons of barley (8%).
As reported on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food on Monday, the rate of grain exports since the beginning of the current MY is 1.75 times lower than the same period of the last MY (13.13 million tons were exported from July 1 to September 26, 2021).
It is specified that in general, since the beginning of September, 3.21 million grains and leguminous crops have been exported, including 1.35 million tons of wheat, 1.54 million tons of corn, 305 thousand tons of barley, 9.9 thousand tons of flour and 2 .1 thousand tons of rye.
At the same time, according to the ministry, for the period of September 21-26, 0.63 million tons of grain crops were supplied to foreign markets (an average of 126 thousand tons daily), while for the previous reporting periods of September 9-21 – an average of 132.5 thousand tons daily, August 31-September 9 – 147.8 thousand tons daily, August 26-31 – 110 thousand tons / day, and August 19-26 – 61.4 thousand tons / day. Thus, the average daily export rate for the last 5 days decreased by 5% compared to the previous period of September 9-21.
In terms of crops for the period September 21-26, 313 thousand tons of wheat, 280 thousand tons of corn, 37 thousand tons of barley, 1.5 thousand tons of flour and 0.2 thousand tons of rye were sent abroad.
According to the agency, in general, from the beginning of 2022/2023 MY and until September 26, 2022, Ukraine exported 2.61 million tons of wheat (3.04 times less compared to the same date in 2021/2022 MY), 635 thousand tons of barley ( 5.64 times less), 2.6 thousand tons of rye (11 times less) and 22 thousand tons of flour (35.5% less). At the same time, the pace of corn exports exceeded last year’s volumes – 4.23 million tons were exported, which is 3.03 times higher than in 2021/2022 MY.
As reported, in the 2021/2022 marketing year, Ukraine exported 48.51 million tons of grains and legumes, which is 8.4% higher than the previous marketing year, despite the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation and difficulties with the export of agricultural products due to the blockade of Ukrainian seaports. 18.74 million tons of wheat were delivered to foreign markets (12.6% more than in 2020/2021MY), 23.54 million tons of corn (+1.9%), 5.75 million tons of barley (+35.9%) , 70.9 thousand tons of flour (-44.1%).
In 2020/2021 MY, the country exported 44.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops: 16.64 million tons of wheat, 23.08 million tons of corn, 4.23 million tons of barley, 126.9 thousand tons of flour and 18.4 thousand . tons of rye.
In 2019/2020 MY, Ukraine exported 56.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops.
Seven more ships carrying corn and wheat left the ports of Ukraine on Tuesday, the Anadolu agency reports, citing the Turkish Defense Ministry.
The export of agricultural products from three Ukrainian ports continues under the agreement on the corridor for grain, concluded on July 22.
Earlier, the UN reported that the Joint Coordinating Center (JCC) allowed seven vessels with corn and wheat to leave the ports of Ukraine on Tuesday as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. According to the UN, the ships Captain Dimitrios (65 thousand tons of corn), Super Saka (29 thousand tons of wheat and 21 thousand tons of corn), Fanaria (18 thousand tons of wheat) will go to Spain. The ships Propus (8.5 thousand tons of corn), Ata Ocean (6.3 thousand tons of sunflower oil) and Greifswald (492 tons of corn) are planning to head to Turkey. In addition, the Yada Team ship will deliver 64,951 tons of corn to Israel.
In Istanbul on July 22, with the participation of the UN, Ukraine, Turkey and Russia, two documents were signed on the creation of a corridor for the export of grain from three Ukrainian ports: Chernomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhny.
Prices for wheat from Ukraine for the period from August 26 to September 8 slightly increased against the backdrop of a gradual resumption of its exports by sea, corn quotes on the Ukrainian market are stable, according to the Telegram channel of the consulting company Barva Invest.
As, on September 8, quotations of wheat from Ukraine on the terms of delivery of CPT are estimated at 4.9-6.4 thousand UAH / ton, while on August 26 – 4.5-6.4 thousand UAH / ton, on August 11 – 4 3-6 thousand UAH/ton, and on August 4 – 3-5.5 thousand UAH/ton. The spot price of corn at the Chop checkpoint near Hungary for the period August 26-September 8 remained at $240/ton.
According to Barva Invest, the December futures of wheat from the Black Sea region Black Sea (BWFU2) as of September 8 decreased by 5.9% compared to August 26 – to $317.25/ton, however, on the European exchange Euronext (EBMU2) increased by 0.5%, up to EUR328.75/ton, and on the Chicago Stock Exchange (ZWU2) – by 9.8%, up to $8.44/bu.
Thus, wheat quotes for the reporting period were influenced in different directions by the rise in prices for other grain crops and the expectation of increased demand from importers against the backdrop of statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin criticizing the Istanbul grain agreements that allegedly the “grain corridor” from Ukraine is used to supply food to EU countries, not to poor third world countries.
“Wheat quotations reacted with active growth to another portion of demagoguery from Russia regarding the export of Ukrainian grain from Ukrainian ports within the grain corridor … (Putin – IF) said that he would consult with his henchmen and Turkey regarding the need to limit Ukraine’s export destinations,” the consulting company emphasized. company in the message.
The investment company clarified that by September 8, the December futures for corn from the Black Sea region (BWFU2) slightly decreased by 0.8% compared to August 26, to $310.75/ton, while on the Chicago Stock Exchange (ZCU2) it increased by 3 .2% to $6.71/bu.
Quotes of corn on the world market also changed in different directions, prices were influenced by the market’s expectation of a possible decrease in estimates of the American crop in the September report of the US Department of Agriculture, fears about the prospects for corn yields in the US and the EU due to record drought, concerns about the prospects for a global recession, as well as subsidence oil prices.
The key transactions with soft commodities were the purchase by Japan of 95 thousand tons of wheat (from the USA and Canada), Iraq – 100 thousand tons of wheat (from the USA), Jordan – 120 thousand tons of wheat, South Korea – 60 thousand tons of wheat and 206 thousand tons of corn. In addition, the Philippines announced a tender for the purchase of 100,000 tons of feed wheat, Japan for 70,000 tons of feed wheat, and South Korea for 55,000 tons of wheat.
As reported, in response to Putin’s criticism of the Istanbul grain agreements, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on September 8 that Ukrainian grain is being shipped to Asia, Africa and Europe. Prior to this, the President of the Russian Federation was outraged by the allegedly larger share of agricultural products that goes along the grain corridor from Ukraine to the EU, and not to poor third world countries.
According to Zelensky, 54 ships with agricultural products have already been sent to Asia, 16 to Africa, 32 to Europe. At the same time, part of the European supplies are subsequently redirected to Asian and African countries, the President specified.
On July 22, in Istanbul, with the participation of the UN, Ukraine, Turkey and Russia, two documents were signed on the creation of a corridor for the export of grain from three Ukrainian ports: Chornomorsk, Odessa, and Pivdenny.
As of September 6, the total tonnage of grain and other food products exported from three Ukrainian ports is, according to the UN, 2.213 million tons. In total, the movement of 204 vessels has been allowed at the moment – 108 arriving in Ukrainian ports and 96 leaving them.
Prometey grain trader signed an export contract for the supply of 25,000 tons of food wheat from the Chornomorsk seaport in mid-September, the passage of the vessel became possible due to the deblockade of Ukrainian ports under the Istanbul grain agreements.
“In accordance with the contract, to load agricultural products, the bulk carrier will arrive in the territorial waters of Ukraine in 2-3 weeks. After the inspection, the dry cargo ship will follow from the port of Chornomorsk to its destination in mid-September,” the group of companies said in a press release on Monday.
“Prometey” emphasized that the conclusion of this contract gives the holding a reason to raise the minimum export bar at the level of 70-80 thousand tons of agricultural products per month.
The grain trader also clarified that it would take months to send a comparable amount of cargo by rail or road.
“This is already a victory on the front of global food security, in the structure of which Ukrainian grain trading companies play an important role. Another important component of the launch of the “grain corridor” is the trend towards improving the situation on the domestic agricultural market,” Prometey summed up in a press release. .
Prometey Group of Companies provides services for the storage, processing and logistics of grain and leguminous crops based on 33 elevators with a total storage capacity of 1.7 million tons.
At the end of 2021, the group of companies planned to receive $45 million in EBITDA, while in 2020 this figure reached $32.6 million, and in 2019 – $30.5 million.
The United States of America will provide the UN World Food Program (WFP) with $68 million to buy wheat in Ukraine and then send it to countries most vulnerable in terms of food security, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said.
“The United States will contribute $68 million to the World Food Program to purchase Ukrainian wheat to address the acute global food crisis. We are committed to maintaining global food security for the most vulnerable and urge all countries to follow suit,” Blinken said on Twitter on Wednesday.
As reported, on June 28, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved a draft agreement with WFP on the resumption of the work of its office in the country, which will allow the organization, among other things, to purchase agricultural products from Ukrainian companies for the implementation of international humanitarian programs.
WFP is expected to participate in the purchase of agricultural and food products from Ukrainian companies for the needs of UN international humanitarian projects.
