National bank of Ukraine’s official rates as of 25/11/20
Source: National Bank of Ukraine
Foreign trade turnover by the most important positions in Jan-Aug 2020 (export).
Ukraine expects to receive more than 8 million doses of the future vaccine against the coronavirus disease COVID-19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his vlog.
“The Ministry of Health has held a conversation with representatives of COVAX. This is an initiative for the global access of countries to the vaccine against coronavirus. A phased plan for the supply of the future vaccine in Ukraine has been determined. The first stage is 1.2 million doses. In general, Ukraine expects to receive more than 8 million doses of the future vaccine,” the head of state noted.
According to him, priority in vaccinations will be given to medical workers, military personnel, teachers, people at risk, in particular people over 60 years old.
“We are also increasing the number of daily tests, including free tests through mobile teams. We are working to ensure a sufficient number of beds and oxygen in each region, as well as strengthening control over compliance with quarantine measures,” Zelensky said.
Analysts at BofA Securities, which expected the Ukrainian economy to fall by 6.8% in 2020, lowered their forecast to 5.2%, while the forecast for the country’s economic recovery in 2021 fell to 4.5% versus the previous forecast of 6.5%.
The weaker-than-expected economic downturn in 2020 also diminishes the base effect for a 2021 recovery, despite the current strong momentum for a recovery in consumer demand, as well as a record low borrowing cost since the 2020 easing cycle, BofA Securities said in a review issued on November 24.
A sustained recovery in consumer activity amid an extremely strong base effect could push inflation above the 5% ± 1 pp target range in the second-third quarters of 2021, which, according to analysts, could force the NBU to raise the key policy rate by about 100 bp in the second half of the coming year.
At the same time, it is predicted that the key policy rate may return to a decline in 2022, as soon as inflationary pressures stabilize.
According to the analysts, in 2021, Ukraine is likely to receive another one or two tranches under the IMF program, including the deferred tranche of 2020. An important condition for them is the restoration and stabilization of anti-corruption institutions, including a possible complete reshuffle in the Constitutional Court, which may take several more months.
According to the review, the attractive yield on Ukrainian government bonds is noted, while the exchange rate remains the main problem for offshore investors.
The analysts said that Ukraine has decent upside potential, dependent on the hryvnia, which is now largely undervalued, but they noted that domestic politics remains a key risk.
Mobile network operators Kyivstar, Vodafone Ukraine and lifecell plan to build up to 30% of new telecom network sites based on the infrastructure sharing model.
“We have agreed on sharing… All operators are aware that it makes no sense to build three networks in some localities and on some roads, that it makes sense to agree to a reasonable story with investments, it makes sense to share networks. According to forecasts, 30% of the new construction will be the sharing network,” Vodafone Ukraine CEO Olha Ustinova said at a briefing in Kyiv on Tuesday.
She also said that operators have great anticipations about the state’s permission to launch spectral sharing, which will allow them to share not only passive infrastructure, but also its active part.
Ustinova also called the elimination of the digital divide one of the most important projects of the telecom industry in Ukraine.