Ukraine’s Agricultural Policy and Food Ministry has revised upwards its forecast for grain harvest in 2019 from 70.8 million tonnes to 71.1 million tonnes, the ministry reported on its website. The wheat production will total 27.8 million under the ministry’s forecasts.
According to the ministry, in September the ministry and market participants will decide on acceptable balance of grain exports and will sign a memorandum of understanding over the volume of grain exports in 2019/2020 agricultural year.
“The main document of the memorandum, the so-called agreement of understanding for 2019/2020 agricultural year, will be sent to all participants of the grain market before the end of this week,” the ministry said.
As reported, Agricultural Ministry and grain market participants in August 2018 memorandum envisaged 16 million tonnes of wheat export for 2018/2019 agricultural year against 16.5 million tonnes envisaged for a previous marketing year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reviewed downwards the forecast for export of Ukrainian wheat in 2019/20 agricultural year (July-June) by 0.5 million tonnes, to 19 million tonnes, and harvest – by 1 million tonnes, to 29 million tonnes, according to a July report of the USDA posted on its website. According to the report, compared with the June report, the forecast for the export of barley in 2019/20 agri-year was also lowered to 4.2 million tonnes (by 0.3 million tonnes) due to the deterioration of the forecast for the production of this crop to 8.5 million tonnes (by 0.5 million tons).
At the same time, the forecast for the export of corn has been increased to 28 million tonnes (by 1 million tonnes) with improving the forecast of the corn harvest to 34 million tonnes (by 1 million tonnes).
Thus, in general, the grain harvest forecast for 2019/20 agri-year in Ukraine has been reduced to 72.55 million tonnes (by 0.5 million tonnes compared with the June forecast), exports increased to 51.39 million tonnes (by 0.2 million tonnes).
As reported, Ukraine’s Agricultural Policy and Food Ministry predicts an increase in the yield of grain in 2019 to 70.8 million tonnes with a gross harvest of grain in the 2018/19 agricultural year at the level of 70.1 million tonnes.
On Tuesday, July 9, at 10.00, the press center of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency will host a press conference entitled “Results of Exports of Fresh Fruits and Berries in 2018-2019. Forecast for Harvest (and Ukrainian Exports) for 2019-2020 Season.”
Participants: Dmytro Kroshka, the chairman of the Ukrainian Association of Agrarian Export, Volodymyr Hurzhiy, an expert for exports at First Ukrainian Apples Producers Aggregating Company USPA FRUIT, Oleksandr Yaschenko, the deputy director for research of the Institute of Horticulture, and Oleh Bosy, the agricultural technologist and managing partner of FruiTech (8/5a Reitarska Street). Registration of journalists requires press accreditation.
The World Bank has affirmed the forecast for growth of Ukraine’s GDP at 2.7% in 2019, World Bank Country Director for Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine Satu Kahkonen has said.
In 2018, GDP growth was 3.3%, in 2019, the growth would slow down, she said at a press conference in Kyiv on Thursday.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved the forecast for forex reserves as of late 2019 from $20.6 billion to $21.2 billion, from $21.4 billion to $21.9 billion as of late 2020 and from $21.4 billion to $21.8 billion as of late 2021. According to data released by the central bank on Thursday, the assessment of the deficit in the consolidated balance of payments for 2019 has also been improved from $1.1 billion to $0.3 billion, while for 2020-2021 it is confirmed at the level of $0.1 billion and $0.7 billion respectively.
At the same time, the NBU worsened the forecast of the current account deficit: for the current year – from $4.5 billion to $4.9 billion, for the next year – from $5.6 billion to $5.8 billion, and for 2021 – from $6.2 billion to $6.7 billion
In relation to GDP, the assessment of the current account deficit for 2019 is worsened from 3.1% of GDP to 3.3% of GDP, for 2020 it is confirmed at the level of 3.6% of GDP, and for 2021 it is worsened from 3.9% of GDP to 4% Of GDP.
As reported, at the end of 2018, Ukraine had forex reserves of $20.8 billion, a surplus of the consolidated balance of payments of $2.9 billion and a current account deficit of $4.5 billion or 3.4% of GDP.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in April raised its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine for the 2018/2019 marketing year (MY, July-June) by 500,000 tonnes compared with the March forecast, to 29.5 million tonnes.
According to the report on the USDA’s website, the increase in the export forecast is associated with a large harvest. The forecast of corn harvest in Ukraine was increased by 305,000 tonnes, to 35.8 million tonnes.
In addition, the USDA retained the forecast of wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2018/2019 MY at the level of 16.5 million tonnes, raised the crop forecast by 57,000 tonnes, to 25.057 million tonnes. The forecast for barley production was also slightly increased (by 204,000 tonnes, to 7.6 million tonnes), while the export forecast did not change (4.2 million tonnes).
In general, the U.S. agency raised its grain yield forecast in Ukraine to 69.7 million tonnes, exports to 50.4 million tonnes.
The USDA has not changed its forecasts for oilseeds processing (15.85 million tonnes) and oil exports (5.93 million tonnes), while the forecast for oil meal exports rose to 5.26 million tonnes (100,000 tonnes more) after a decline in the previous month.