According to the Experts Club analytical center, citing data from the A-95 Consulting Group, the Ukrainian gasoline market continues to be concentrated around supplies from Poland and Lithuania: in July 2026, these two countries accounted for 55% of total imports.
Ukraine received 56,100 tonnes of gasoline from Lithuania and 51,700 tonnes from Poland. Together, this amounted to around 107,800 tonnes out of total imports of approximately 196,000 tonnes.
The Polish supply route is demonstrating particularly high growth rates. Compared with July last year, the volume of supplies increased by 68% and reached its highest level since August 2025.
Imports from Lithuania increased by 16% year-on-year.
The ORLEN oil refining group plays a key role in both supply routes. The group’s facilities in Poland and Lithuania supplied around 97,000 tonnes of gasoline to the Ukrainian market.
A-95 estimates ORLEN’s share at more than half of total imports. Comparing the rounded figures of 97,000 tonnes and the total volume of 196,000 tonnes, this represents approximately half of the market.
The high level of concentration has a dual effect.
On the one hand, the large and stable refineries in Poland and Lithuania allow Ukraine to rapidly increase purchases during periods of higher demand and compensate for the loss of other suppliers.
On the other hand, more than half of the available supply comes from only two geographical routes, while a very significant share of deliveries is linked to a single refining group.
Poland’s importance increased particularly after Ukraine switched to E10 gasoline. The change in standards limited the possibility of using some traditional sources, including certain Greek refineries.
At the same time, Greece has not disappeared from the market entirely. In July, Ukraine imported around 25,000 tonnes of gasoline produced by Motor Oil.
Germany became another rapidly growing supply route. It supplied 21,000 tonnes of gasoline, 78% more than in July 2025. The UPG network imported the entire volume.
Thus, the structure of imports in July demonstrates two parallel trends: ORLEN’s growing role as a key supplier and simultaneous attempts by Ukraine’s largest fuel retail networks to diversify purchases through Germany, Romania and Greece.
According to the Experts Club analytical center, citing data from the A-95 Consulting Group, Ukraine imported about 196,000 tonnes of gasoline in July 2026, the highest figure since August 2025.
At the same time, data from an infographic published by the A-95 Consulting Group show that the volume of supplies increased by approximately 51% compared with June. In June, the main supply routes accounted for about 130,000 tonnes of gasoline, whereas in July the figure reached around 196,000 tonnes.
The sharp increase in imports occurred despite the Ukrainian market’s transition to the E10 standard on July 1, which requires the mandatory addition of bioethanol to gasoline. The new requirement temporarily narrowed the range of available foreign suppliers.
In particular, the Greek Hellenic Petroleum refinery does not produce gasoline of the required standard. Its products had previously been used by Ukrainian traders during periods of increased demand.
At the same time, the beginning of July coincided with rising petroleum product prices on the global market and increased domestic demand.
A-95 noted that the situation was most strained during the first half of the month. However, the increase in supplies made it possible to stabilize the market in the second half of July. Importers also contracted the necessary volumes for August in advance.
Poland and Lithuania became the main sources of additional supply. Imports from Lithuania increased from 40,500 tonnes in June to 56,100 tonnes in July, while imports from Poland rose from 30,700 tonnes to 51,700 tonnes.
Supplies from Germany also increased noticeably, from 16,900 tonnes to 20,900 tonnes. Around 34,000 tonnes arrived from Romania, compared with 31,200 tonnes one month earlier.
At the same time, imports from Moldova decreased from 9,600 tonnes to 5,800 tonnes.
Thus, July became a test of the Ukrainian market’s ability to rapidly restructure external supplies following changes to gasoline quality requirements. Despite the initial contraction of the available supply base, importers managed to increase supplies by approximately one and a half times within a single month.
In July 2026, Ukrainians purchased 22,600 used passenger cars imported from abroad, which is 1% more than during the same period in 2025, according to a report by “Ukravtoprom” on its Telegram channel.
Gasoline-powered cars accounted for the largest share of this segment of the auto market, increasing their share by 7 percentage points compared to July 2025—to 55%.
Next came diesel cars at 17% (19%), while the share of electric vehicles fell to 15% from 24%, though they still outpaced hybrids, which accounted for 10% (6%). The share of cars with LPG systems remained unchanged at 3%.
The average age of imported used cars was 8.8 years.
The Volkswagen Tiguan confidently tops the list of the ten most popular imported used models with 937 units. It is followed by the VW Golf with 862 units, the Audi Q5 with 803 units, the Nissan Rogue with 799 units, the Skoda Octavia with 661 units, the Renault Megane with 618 units, the Tesla Model Y with 509 units, the Ford Escape with 465 units, the Tesla
Model 3 with 456 units, and the Mazda CX-5 with 432 units.
As reported with reference to “Ukravtoprom,” in 2025 Ukrainians purchased 274,300 used passenger cars imported from abroad, which is 24% more than in 2024, and the top three most popular models after the Volkswagen Golf included two Tesla electric vehicles—the Model Y and Model 3.
Fuel prices in Ukraine continue to decline—this applies primarily to diesel, which has dropped by another 1–3 UAH per liter over the past five days, according to price monitoring at select gas station chains conducted by Energoreforma.
According to the report, natural gas prices have also fallen by up to 1 UAH per liter.
Gasoline prices remain stable, at the same level as on June 17.
According to calculations by Serhiy Kuyun, director of the consulting firm “A-95,” the price of diesel fuel has already dropped by more than 12 UAH per liter from its peak of over 90 UAH per liter.
He noted that at the start of the crisis, the price of diesel fuel was 62 UAH per liter.
The expert also pointed out that smaller retail chains, which do not have remaining stocks of fuel purchased at high prices, are lowering their prices more aggressively.
Regarding gasoline, Kuyun explained that there is no noticeable downward trend, since the difference between the purchase price (customs value) and the retail price during the “Iranian crisis” only returned to its pre-crisis February level in June.
“In other words, there are no excess profits that could explain the slowdown in price reductions. Gasoline margins have completely collapsed, which is why prices aren’t really falling. Gas stations’ finances are currently being propped up by diesel, though that doesn’t prevent diesel prices from falling sharply,” Kuyun wrote.
At the same time, the director of “A-95” emphasized that Russian attacks on gas station networks continue, and these losses are also putting pressure on their finances.
“Last week, one of the major chains lost an oil depot containing $1.5 million worth of fuel. Another chain reports that it suffers 15–20 ‘lightning strikes’ every week in frontline regions. WOG has already lost 6–7 gas stations, each worth $1 million. Gasoline and natural gas tankers are burning,” Kuyun described the situation.
He also noted that there had been an initiative to create a fund to compensate for these losses, but so far there are no sources of funding for it.
Kuyun pointed out that current global prices are not the only factor in pricing, but given the level of competition and the large number of gas stations, supply sources, and logistical capabilities in the Ukrainian market, in his opinion, there is no chance of operating under any rules other than market ones.
For his part, Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy and infrastructure programs at the Razumkov Center, noted that autogas is once again becoming more cost-effective than gasoline, having dropped by more than 5 UAH/liter in one month and more than 7 UAH/liter in two months.
Meanwhile, gasoline prices fell by only 1.1 UAH per liter over the same period. He noted that currently, a liter of LPG costs approximately 56% of the price of a liter of A-95.
Omelchenko attributed this, in particular, to a decline in the wholesale price of LPG, which fell by 3.46 UAH per liter over the past month.
According to him, propane and butane prices have fallen in Europe, and the import parity for LPG has also declined since its April peak. As of June 19, it stood at 34.43 UAH per liter, compared to 40.95 UAH per liter on April 16.
However, he also noted that the price cap at gas stations is determined not only by European quotations but also by the influence of wholesale prices, logistics, taxes, exchange rates, security risks, and the safety margins of the networks themselves.
“Therefore, a decrease in external prices does not always immediately translate into an equivalent decrease at the retail level,” Omelchenko said.
As previously reported, fuel prices in Ukraine began to decline around mid-June amid reports of a stabilizing situation in the Middle East and falling oil prices. On June 19, Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine, convened fuel market participants to discuss the situation.
He drew their attention to the fact that over the past few weeks, global markets have seen a significant drop in prices for crude oil and petroleum products, but in Ukraine, the pace of decline in retail fuel prices remains significantly slower than the pace of their previous rise.
Market participants were asked to provide further explanations regarding the reasons for the slower decline in petroleum product prices compared to their previous rapid rise, as well as the factors influencing how quickly lower petroleum product costs are reflected in prices for end consumers.
On June 17, Natalia Nikeshina, marketing director of the national network of gas stations operating under the Parallel brand, predicted that the potential for price reductions ranges from 6 UAH to 12 UAH per liter. According to her, the largest drop can be expected if European prices do indeed fall to pre-crisis levels.
According to Serbian Economist, Hungarian oil and gas company MOL has received approval from U.S. authorities to continue negotiations on the acquisition of a controlling stake in Serbian NIS until May 22, 2026. This was reported by Reuters, citing a statement from MOL.
The negotiations concern the purchase of shares held by Russian shareholders—Gazprom Neft and Gazprom, which own 44.9% and 11.3% of NIS, respectively. Initially, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) set a deadline of March 24 for finalizing the Russian companies’ exit from NIS’s capital, but this deadline has now been extended to May 22.
In January, MOL signed a binding agreement with the Russian shareholders to purchase their stakes in NIS, and the Emirati company ADNOC is set to acquire a minority stake as part of this deal. The Serbian government retains a 29.9% stake in the company.
For Serbia, the issue of changing NIS’s ownership is of strategic importance, as the company remains the country’s largest fuel supplier and the operator of the only oil refinery in Pančevo. Last week, the U.S. also extended the sanctions waiver for NIS itself until April 17 so that the company could continue importing crude oil.
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According to data from the A-95 consulting group, retail prices for diesel fuel rose from 58.3 to 59.9 hryvnia per liter, or by 1.6 hryvnia per liter, between January 5 and January 30. while prices for A-95 gasoline rose from 58.2 to 60.3 hryvnia per liter, or by 2.1 hryvnia per liter.
According to A-95 director Sergey Kuyun, the reason for the rise in fuel prices in January is the global increase in oil prices.
“Today is January 30. Since the beginning of the month, the price of oil has risen from $60.7 to $70.7 (+16.5%). Global diesel fuel prices for the same period rose from $614 to $714/t (+16.2%),” he wrote on his Facebook page at the end of last week.
The expert also noted that wholesale prices for automotive diesel fuel in Ukraine rose from 48.52 to 52.46 UAH/liter, or by 4 UAH/liter (+4%), over the same period.
“In other words, we see that global prices rise first, followed by wholesale prices, and only then retail prices,” he said.
At the same time, according to A-95, prices for autogas rose by only 0.7 UAH/liter between January 5 and 30, from 37.6 to 38.3 UAH/liter.
