The total gross harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2023 is expected to be 68 million tons, 8.5% less than in 2022, when it was 73.8 million tons, and 36% less than in 2021 (106 million tons), this forecast was released by the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA).
“The significantly lower volume of the future harvest is due to both the occupation of part of the territory of Ukraine, mines, hostilities, and the lack of funds and other resources for farmers to conduct a full sowing campaign and grow crops,” UZA said in a statement.
According to its estimate, the total area sown in Ukraine will be 28.2% less than in previous years – about 19.5 million hectares. “Of course, much depends on how the sowing season will end and on further weather conditions,” the association said.
According to its analysts, exports from Ukraine in the new season 2023/2024 could amount to 43.9 million tons. In the current season (which ends June 30, 2022), exports could reach 56.4 million tons, preserving the marine export route. At the same time, transitional balances at the beginning of the new season could be about 11.9 million tons of grains and oilseeds, which is three times more than in previous seasons, except in 2022/2023 MY, when balances were the maximum (about 25 million tons).
“A characteristic feature of this year will be a drop in the volume of grain crops due to a decrease in the area sown under them compared to last year and a simultaneous increase in the forecast of oilseed crops due to an increase in the area sown under them,” the UZA stressed.
According to grain market analysts, the harvest of wheat in Ukraine in 2023 could reach only 17.9 million tons (in 2022 – 20.2 million tons, and in 2021 – a record 33 million tons), with a reduction in acreage under wheat by more than 2 million hectares.
“Even this harvest is enough to meet domestic demand and food security of the country (especially when about 7 million Ukrainians have left the country), but will reduce the export potential for food security in the world,” the association explained.
According to its data, the export of wheat in 2023/2024 MY, given the smaller harvest, could be about 15 million tons, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season transitional residues will amount to 5.3 million tons.
UZA also forecast a barley crop of 4.4 million tons in 2023 (10.1 million tons in 2021 and 5.8 million tons in 2022) and expects to export this crop in 2023/2024 MY at 2 million tons.
Corn harvest in the new season in the UZA expects at 23.3 million tons, linking this figure with the reduction of cultivation areas on 800 thousand hectares (in 2021 – 37.6 million tons, in 2022 – 27.3 million tons). According to experts of the Association, the export of this crop may be about 19 million tons, taking into account the transition stocks at the beginning of the new season at the level of 2.3 million tons.
Analysts at UZA forecast the sunflower harvest in 2023 at 12.7 million tons, due to the increase of cultivated areas under it also by 800 thousand hectares (in 2022 – 11.1 million tons, in 2021 – 16.9 million tons). UZA expects sunflower seed export at 1.2 million tons, and sunflower oil production may reach 11.5 million tons.
UZA’s preliminary forecast for rapeseed harvest in 2023 is 3.8 million tons, with exports in 2023/2024 MY at 3.5 million tons. The soybean crop is at nearly 4.4 million tons and exports 2023/2024 MY will be 3 million tons.
According to analysts, the forecast voiced exports of grains and oilseeds in 2023/2024 MY will be valid if the work of the Ukrainian Black Sea ports. “The world has already seen that export of grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to the countries that badly need it,” the business association stressed.
UZA stressed that the reduction of crops and exports from Ukraine will have a negative impact on the availability of grain on the world market and will lead to higher prices and, consequently, to an increase in food inflation in the world.
According to the forecast of Ministry of Agrarian Policy, announced in late March, the area of cereals and leguminous crops in 2023 will be 10.24 million hectares, which is 1.4 million fewer than in 2022, while the area under oilseeds will grow by 0.92 million hectares – to 8.85 million hectares. In particular, winter wheat will be 4166 thousand hectares (-834 thousand hectares against the previous year), spring wheat – 285 thousand hectares (+67 thousand hectares), winter barley – 536 thousand hectares (-255 thousand hectares).
Grain and oilseed exports from Ukraine in 2023 will drop by a third to 46 million tons per year, Agrarian Policy Minister Mykola Solsky said at a meeting of the Agriculture and Fisheries Council in Brussels on Tuesday.
“Compared to last year, this year’s exports of grain and oilseed crops from Ukraine are expected to decrease by a third to 46 million tons per year. Consequently, Ukraine will be able to export less grain than last year by 40%,” the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy quoted the minister’s speech to European colleagues.
European Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski also said at a press conference after the meeting of the agrarian ministers that the EU expects Ukraine to reduce its exports in 2023 because “the country has limited cultivated areas and expects a 40% lower harvest”.
He expressed confidence that this factor will improve the organization of “routes of solidarity” and send “all exports through them.
Wojciechowski positively assessed the prolongation of exports within the framework of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which “will facilitate the export of grain from Ukraine for two months”.
The European Commissioner also recalled the need to take into account the situation with the possible blocking of exports of Ukrainian agricultural products “as it already happened before” through the Black Sea grain corridor and urged to consider the total volume of Ukrainian exports when planning the work of “solidarity corridors”.
The European Union (EU) and Ukraine need to find a solution that would allow Ukrainian farmers to work, exporting grain to the EU in the volumes they need, Croatian Minister of Agriculture Marija Vučković said at an online meeting with Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy Mykola Solsky on Tuesday.
Vučković is confident that the restrictions on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to Europe, which were introduced by the European Commission until June 5, should not be extended after this date, the press service of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food said.
Solsky, in turn, thanked his colleague for understanding. He also said that Croatia became one of the signatories of the letter of the European Commission sent by the relevant ministers of 14 states of the European Union. In this appeal, they expressed concern about the temporary ban on importing Ukrainian agricultural products to five states of the European Union.
Ukrainian agrarians last week sowed 585.2 thousand hectares of grain and leguminous crops, compared to 1 million 105.5 thousand hectares last week and 1267.2 thousand hectares a week earlier, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported on Friday.
According to it, May 25, the area under spring grain and leguminous crops reached 5.278 million hectares, or about 96.7% of the planned.
Spring sown areas are still lower than last year, when as of May 26 they reached 5.905 million hectares, but the lag has decreased again: 267.1 thousand hectares were sown during the same week in 2022.
The lag is mainly formed due to the most popular crops – corn and spring barley. They were sown by 16.4% and 17.8% less than last year, amounting to 3.266 and 759.6 thousand hectares respectively. As for corn, they have already surpassed the forecast of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy in 3.618 million hectares, while the barley is noticeably lower than the expected 1.041 million hectares.
At the same time, the area under other crops is already higher than a year ago. This concerns spring wheat – 261.9 thousand hectares (38.4%), buckwheat – 83.1 thousand hectares (44.0%), millet – 46.1 thousand hectares (11.6%) and pea – 135.6 thousand hectares (7.7%).
As it was noted by the Ministry of agrarian policy, the leaders in field work with grains and legumes this week were agrarians of the northernmost Chernigiv region – 94.5 thousand hectares, and the most sown spring crops in Poltava region – 626 thousand hectares.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, sunflowers covered 4.616 million hectares, which is already 8.2% more than last year’s figure, but still significantly below the expectations of 5.641 million hectares. Most of all this oilseed crops are planted in Kirovograd region – 576 thousand hectares.
Sown areas under sugar beet, on the contrary, exceeded the forecast of 220 thousand hectares and reached 240.9 thousand hectares, a third more than last year on that date, and higher even than in 2021, when they amounted to 226 thousand hectares.
Soybean area expanded to 1.636 million hectares and exceeded last year’s already 42%, and there is little left to the forecast of 1.841 million hectares. Kiev region is the leader with 188.8 thousand hectares.
According to the forecast of the Ministry from the end of March, in 2023 sowing areas of cereals and leguminous crops will amount to 10.24 mln ha, which is 1.4 mln ha less then in 2022, while oilseeds area will grow by 0.92 mln ha – to 8.85 mln ha. In particular, winter wheat crops will be 4166 thousand hectares (-834 thousand hectares against the previous year), spring wheat – 285 thousand hectares (+67 thousand hectares), winter barley – 536 thousand hectares (-255 thousand hectares).
Agrarian ministers of Moldova, Romania and Ukraine in online talks on Friday agreed to exchange information on the amount of wheat to be transported through solidarity corridors, the official website of Moldova’s agrarian ministry reported.
“The purpose of the meeting of the three parties was to agree on a way to organize in order to optimize the transit of grain coming from Ukraine so that Romanian agrarians can transport grain, release warehouses and export products of the new harvest,” the report said.
According to the press service of the Ukrainian ministry, Minister of Agrarian Policy Mykola Solskyi paid special attention to the discussion of transit of Ukrainian agricultural products on the territory of Moldova and Romania.
The trilateral meeting was preceded by negotiations of Romanian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Agriculture Vladimir Bol with his Moldovan counterpart Petre Dea. They discussed Moldovan-Romanian cooperation in the agro-industrial sector, mechanisms of financial and non-financial incentives for agricultural producers, as well as the portfolio of projects that are already implemented and planned for implementation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that there is “politics” in the decisions of a number of countries that have banned imports of Ukrainian grain.
“I am grateful to my neighbors who support us, but to be honest, there is politics there. We have the Black Sea blocked and we need help with weapons. We can’t risk relations with some countries,” he said Saturday in an interview with Italian media.
“And I understand that some political currents are taking advantage of this situation and instigating farmers to block grain shipments. But they have no right to block transit,” he said.
“We will solve these issues,” Zelensky stressed.
