In August 2026, the volume of foreign currency purchases by Ukrainian households exceeded the volume of sales by $0.45 billion in dollar terms, compared to $0.5 billion in July of this year and $0.36 billion in August 2025.
According to data from the National Bank, in August, compared to July, cash currency purchases decreased by $68.8 million—to $1.9327 billion—while sales decreased by $17.0 million, to $1.4846 billion.
The volume of cash dollar purchases by the public in August increased by $28.9 million to $1,352.1 million, while sales decreased by $56.1 million to $1,034.6 million.
In the cash euro market in August, purchases by the public, in dollar terms, decreased by $108.1 million to $499.8 million, while sales increased by $26 million to $367.6 million.
As for bank customers’ non-cash foreign exchange transactions, both purchases and sales increased in August compared to July: purchases rose by $164.9 million to $11.1925 billion, and sales rose by $144.6 million to $7.6579 billion. At the same time, the volume of interbank transactions decreased by $409.9 million to $8,183 million.
On an annual basis, the volume of non-cash foreign currency purchases by bank customers increased by $2,904.0 million, sales by $998.2 million, and interbank transactions by $2,000 million.
In August, the official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate strengthened by nearly 14 kopecks compared to July—to 44.55 UAH/$1—while against the euro, the hryvnia weakened by nearly 61 kopecks—to 51.88 UAH/EUR1.
The National Bank’s net foreign exchange interventions in August rose to $4 billion 815.7 million, an increase of $24.7 million compared to July and $2 billion 119.8 million compared to August 2025.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its interventions in the interbank market last week by $56.8 million, or 4.5%, to $1 billion 329.0 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the National Bank, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities rose to $210.3 million from $195.0 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $841.2 million.
In the retail foreign exchange market, the average daily net deficit nearly doubled: from Monday through Thursday, it stood at $46.6 million, compared to $24.6 million during the same period the previous week. Retail purchases of non-cash foreign currency exceeded sales every day.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate at the beginning of last week was 44.5505 UAH/$1, and by the end of the week it had weakened to 44.7273 UAH/$1.
A similar trend was observed in the cash market, where the hryvnia’s exchange rate against the dollar weakened by 7–8 kopecks over the past week: the buying rate fell to 44.48 UAH/$1, while the selling rate fell to nearly 44.88 UAH/$1.
Foreign exchange interventions by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on the interbank market in August remained close to July’s level, increasing by $24.7 million, or 0.5 percent, to $4.82 billion, according to data from the regulator’s website.
At the same time, the official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate strengthened by 0.3%, or 14 kopecks, in August, reaching 44.5505 UAH/$1 at the end of the month.
The volume of the National Bank’s interventions in the interbank market last week increased by 6.5%, or $77.9 million, compared to the previous week, reaching $1.27 billion.
According to the NBU, net interventions in August rose by 78.6%, or $2.12 billion, year-over-year.
From January through August, the regulator sold nearly $33.0 billion in foreign currency, which is 39.0%, or $9.25 billion, more than during the same period last year.
Over the 28 days of August, the average daily negative balance of legal entities’ currency purchase and sale transactions increased to $169.5 million from $151.8 million in July.
In the retail foreign exchange market, this figure rose from $19.4 million in July to $25.9 million in August.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its interventions in the interbank market last week by $59.9 million, or 5.6%, to $1.0145 billion, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the National Bank’s data, during the first four days of last week, the average daily net deficit in currency purchases and sales by legal entities decreased to $140.9 million from $168.5 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $563.7 million.
In the retail foreign exchange market, the average daily net deficit decreased: from Monday through Thursday, it stood at $9.2 million, compared to $11.6 million the week before last, and non-cash currency sales exceeded purchases on all those days.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 44.6676 UAH/$1, weakened to 44.8110 UAH/$1 by the end of the week.
The same trend was observed in the cash market, where the hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate weakened by 12 kopecks over the past week: the buying rate fell to 44.51 UAH/$1, and the selling rate to nearly 44.90 UAH/$1.
The ICU Investment Group has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 to less than 1% (0.8% expected) compared to its previous estimate in December of 1.2%.
“Weak economic growth will be the new norm in the coming years unless the security situation improves significantly,” according to ICU’s updated macroeconomic forecast.
ICU noted that private household consumption and government investment in military projects remain the main pillars of the economy, however, the strength of these components will gradually weaken, so the investment company lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current year from 1.2% in the December macro forecast to 0.8% in the June update.
According to the company’s press release, GDP contraction in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated at 0.5%, which is slightly below most estimates; ICU believes that growth potential in the medium term remains quite limited.
According to the press release, analysts have downgraded the inflation forecast for 2026 to 9–10%, compared to previous expectations of around 7%. This trend is attributed to the primary and secondary effects of the crisis in the Middle East and the war in Iran on global consumer prices.
ICU considers the current tightness of monetary policy sufficient to offset temporary inflationary pressures, so the probability of an NBU policy rate hike by year-end is estimated at no more than 50% (the rate forecast for 2026 is 15%).
Due to a significant increase in imbalances in the foreign exchange market and a rise in the NBU’s currency sales interventions to $18.1 billion over the first five months of this year (compared to $14.3 billion during the same period last year), the investment group expects the pace of the hryvnia’s depreciation to accelerate. For the full year, the increase in interventions compared to last year’s figure could amount to $6–7 billion, and their total volume could approach $42–43 billion, leading to a revision of the exchange rate forecast for the end of 2026 to 45.8 UAH/$1 compared to the previous 45.0 UAH/$1.
At the same time, the budget deficit in 2026 (projected at 21% of GDP excluding grants) will be fully covered by foreign aid, allowing the Ministry of Finance to reduce domestic debt for the first time since the start of the full-scale war. Approval of the EU’s Ukraine Support Loan (USL) will enable the NBU to maintain international reserves at $60 billion by year-end.
According to the updated table of macroeconomic indicators, ICU also forecasts nominal GDP of $229 billion, a current account deficit of 18% of GDP, and an increase in public debt to 107% of GDP by the end of 2026. The baseline assumption of the forecast is that security risks will not change fundamentally in the medium term: a peace agreement will not be signed, but the enemy will not make any new territorial gains either.
As reported, the National Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.8% in April, but kept it at 2.8% for next year, and expects it to accelerate to 3.7% in 2028. Regarding inflation, the NBU revised its forecast for 2026 downward in April from 7.5% to 9.4%, and for 2027 from 6% to 6.5%, and expects it to decrease to 5% as early as 2028.
The government’s forecast, incorporated into the 2026 state budget, currently projects 2.4% growth, but Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev has announced plans to revise it downward.
The EBRD, in turn, has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026 from 2.5% to 2.2%; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2026, while the World Bank forecasts growth of 1.2%.
After raising the official hryvnia exchange rate by 4 kopecks on Thursday, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) strengthened it by another 5 kopecks on Friday to 41.6070 UAH/$1, according to the regulator’s website.
“The foreign exchange market of Ukraine is experiencing an increase in the currency deficit caused by high demand in both cash and non-cash segments. The National Bank of Ukraine stabilizes the market with interventions that are not able to fully satisfy the demand for currency, but at the same time achieve the goal of stabilizing the market, which prevents abrupt dynamics and allows to maintain a smooth devaluation trend,” analysts of KIT Group state in the review and forecast of the foreign exchange market.
According to them, the increase in demand for foreign currency in both segments of the foreign exchange market is typical for the beginning of the month and the end of the year.
The analysts also note that the spread between the buying and selling rates of the euro and the US dollar has increased in recent weeks.
“This indicates the desire of currency market operators to capitalize on the increased demand for cash currency among the population, and the widening of the difference between the purchase and sale rates allows them to compensate for their own risks amid a poorly predictable exchange rate situation,” they explain.
At the same time, KIT Group believes that statements by Ukraine’s international partners regarding further funding from frozen natural resources, infrastructure support and economic stimulus projects do not give rise to pessimistic exchange rate forecasts.
According to their expectations, in the short term, the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar will remain in the range of 41.7-42 UAH/$1, with a tendency to gravitate towards 42.5 UAH/$1. “Quotations close to 42 UAH/$1 were already recorded in early December, which is in line with our exchange rate expectations for the end of this year. At the same time, seasonal factors, such as increased demand for foreign currency at the end of the year, may cause a slight short-term surge to 42.5 UAH/$1,”KIT Group” forecasts.
However, at the same time, recent changes in tax policy may increase the tax burden on deposit income, which could stimulate additional demand for foreign currency and the flow of foreign currency savings from the banking system into cash, thereby putting pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate.
The NBU set the reference rate at 12:00 on Friday at 41.5778 UAH/$1, compared to 41.6915 UAH/$1 a day earlier.
The US dollar on the cash market on Friday rose by 4 kopecks to 41.84 UAH/$1 when buying, and by 5 kopecks to 41.90 UAH/$1 when selling.
Overall, since the beginning of 2024, the dollar has risen by 9.5%, or UAH 3.60, at the official exchange rate, and by 13.8%, or UAH 5.03, since the National Bank switched to a managed flexibility regime on October 3, 2023.
The average annual exchange rate is set at 40.7 UAH/$1 in the budget for 2024, and 42.1 UAH/$1 at the end of this year.
As reported, the official hryvnia exchange rate fell by 0.9%, or 37 kopecks, over the past month.
At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves in November increased by $3.344 billion, or 9.1%, and as of December 1, 2024, according to preliminary data from the central bank, amounted to $39.925 billion, while net international reserves (NIR) increased by $3.5 billion, or 15.6%, to $25 billion 939 million.
The NBU’s net sale of foreign currency on the interbank market last week increased to $785.4 million, compared to $708.5 million a week earlier.
Source: https://ru.interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1033645.html
