This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of December 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, as well as leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksym Urakin, Director of Development and Marketing at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Doctor of Philosophy in History, and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends that shaped the situation in Ukraine and the world at the beginning of 2026.
Ukraine’s Macroeconomic Indicators
As of the end of January 2026, the Ukrainian economy entered the new year with a combination of two opposing trends: on the one hand—a gradual easing of inflationary pressure, record-high international reserves, and a stable situation in the foreign exchange market; on the other—war risks, high budget dependence on external financing, weak exports, and a structural foreign exchange deficit in the private sector.
According to the NBU’s estimates, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.8% in 2025. This meant that the economy maintained positive momentum for the third consecutive year, but the pace of recovery remained moderate. The NBU attributed this trend to resilient domestic demand, accommodative fiscal policy, business adaptability, and measures to maintain macrofinancial stability. At the same time, physical export volumes declined due to low agricultural inventories, weak external demand for mining and metallurgical products, and constraints related to the electricity shortage at the end of the year.
In January 2026, the disinflationary trend continued. According to data from the State Statistics Service (SSU), as commented on by the NBU, consumer inflation slowed to 7.4% year-on-year, while prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month. Core inflation also declined—to 7.0% y/y. The NBU attributed this trend to a reduction in labor market imbalances, the secondary effects of the high harvests of 2025, competition from certain imported goods, and a stable situation in the foreign exchange market. At the same time, the regulator noted the first signs of increasing pressure from raw food products.
According to Maksym Urakin, January 2026 became an important test for the Ukrainian economy following the conclusion of a challenging 2025. The decline in inflation to 7.4% showed that tight monetary conditions, stabilization of the foreign exchange market, and an improvement in the supply of food products had yielded results. However, in his assessment, this result should not be interpreted as a complete normalization.
“At the beginning of 2026, Ukraine experienced a rare combination for a war economy—inflation was falling, the foreign exchange market remained under control, reserves reached a historic high, and the economy did not lose its positive momentum. However, this does not mean that the country has entered a classic recovery phase. We are dealing rather with a stabilization regime in which many indicators look better thanks to external financing, budget expenditures, business adaptation, and NBU policy. If international aid were removed from this framework or a new severe energy or currency shock were to occur, the system’s stability would once again be in serious doubt,” Urakin noted.
The NBU’s January decision on the discount rate was one of the key signals of the start of the year. On January 29, 2026, the National Bank announced the start of a cycle of monetary policy easing and a reduction in the discount rate from 15.5% to 15.0% effective January 30. The regulator attributed this to a sustained decline in inflationary pressures and a reduction in risks associated with external financing. At the same time, the NBU emphasized that inflation expectations remained relatively high, and a return of inflation to the 5% target is expected only on the policy horizon.
This decision did not signify a shift to a soft monetary policy in the full sense. Real yields on hryvnia-denominated instruments remained positive, and continued interest in hryvnia assets was one of the key factors restraining demand for foreign currency. In its January Inflation Report, the NBU noted that maintaining a high rate in previous months had supported demand for hryvnia-denominated assets, and individuals’ investments in government bonds and deposits in the national currency continued to grow.
“Lowering the discount rate to 15% was a cautious and logical step, but it should not be interpreted as a signal of imminent cheapening of money. Ukraine remains in a state of war, with high budgetary needs and a significant private-sector foreign exchange deficit. Therefore, the NBU is effectively trying to navigate a very narrow corridor: on the one hand, not to stifle economic activity with excessively expensive money, and on the other, not to lose control over inflation expectations and the foreign exchange market. In such a situation, every rate cut should not be a political gesture, but the result of a real easing of risks,” Urakin emphasized.
The external sector remained the main pillar of Ukraine’s macrofinancial stability. As of the end of January 2026, Ukraine’s international reserves rose to $57.7 billion, setting a new all-time high. The NBU attributed the increase in reserves to inflows of external financing, which largely offset the National Bank’s net foreign exchange sales and the country’s foreign currency debt payments.
In its January Inflation Report, the NBU also noted that in 2025, Ukraine received $52.4 billion in international financial support, including $32.7 billion from the EU, $12.0 billion from the U.S., and $3.4 billion from Canada. At the beginning of 2026, reserves stood at $57.3 billion, equivalent to 5.8 months of future imports, and the NBU’s forecast projected an increase in international reserves to $65 billion by the end of 2026 and to $71 billion by the end of 2028.
At the same time, foreign trade remained a weak point. According to customs data, Ukraine’s trade turnover in January 2026 amounted to $9.9 billion: imports – $6.7 billion, exports – $3.2 billion. This meant that the trade deficit remained high, and domestic demand for imports continued to significantly exceed foreign exchange earnings from exports.
“Record reserves are a strong stabilizing factor, but they should not create the illusion of self-sufficiency. Ukraine’s balance of payments continues to rely heavily on foreign aid rather than the economy’s export capacity. When imports more than double exports in merchandise trade, it means that the country is financing a significant portion of current consumption and military needs with external resources. This is justified in wartime, but strategically, such a model cannot be permanent. “In 2026, the key task should be to expand the country’s own foreign exchange base through exports, processing, energy resilience, and investments in production,” Urakin emphasized.
The budget situation at the beginning of 2026 also remained relatively under control, but structurally strained. According to aggregated data on budget execution, in January 2026, state budget revenues amounted to approximately 303.8 billion UAH, while expenditures totaled approximately 286.2 billion UAH. This monthly picture did not negate the overall problem of the year: public finances remained dependent on the regularity of external financing, domestic borrowing, and the government’s ability to maintain confidence in hryvnia-denominated instruments.
The Global Economy
The global economy at the end of January 2026 appeared more resilient than expected at the end of 2025, but this resilience was uneven. In its January update to the World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected global economic growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The Fund attributed this to investments in technology, fiscal and monetary support, more favorable financial conditions, and the resilience of the private sector. At the same time, the IMF warned of risks associated with overoptimistic expectations regarding the technology sector and a potential escalation of geopolitical tensions.
In the U.S., the economy maintained positive momentum, but the pace slowed by the end of 2025. According to a preliminary BEA estimate, U.S. real GDP grew by 1.4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 following a stronger third quarter, and by 2.2% for the full year 2025. Growth was driven by consumer spending and investment, while exports and government spending held back the result. Inflation in the U.S. remained moderately above target: the Consumer Price Index rose by 2.7% from December 2024 to December 2025, and core CPI by 2.6%. On January 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75%.
The eurozone entered early 2026 with inflation nearly at target but with weak economic momentum. According to Eurostat estimates, annual inflation in the Eurozone stood at 2.0% in December 2025, down from 2.1% in November. Services inflation remained the highest component at 3.4%, while the energy component was negative. ECB rates at the start of 2026 remained at the levels set in 2025: the deposit rate at 2.0%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%.
The United Kingdom remained one of the most controversial major economies in Europe. According to ONS data, the UK’s GDP grew by 1.3% in 2025, driven in part by the services sector. However, inflation accelerated to 3.4% year-on-year in December 2025, remaining significantly above the Bank of England’s target. In December 2025, the Bank of England cut its base rate to 3.75%, but the decision was passed by a narrow 5–4 majority, indicating that disagreements within the regulator regarding the pace of further easing persisted.
“The global economy at the start of 2026 did not appear to be in crisis, but it could not be described as uniformly strong. The U.S. maintained positive momentum, though no longer at an overheated pace; the eurozone was effectively balancing between low inflation and weak growth; the UK experienced slow growth but still faced elevated inflationary pressures. For Ukraine, this means that external demand is unlikely to become a powerful independent driver of recovery. The global environment tends to create moderately favorable financial conditions, but does not guarantee automatic growth in Ukrainian exports,” noted Maksym Urakin.
China ended 2025 with a formally strong result. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the country’s GDP grew by 5.0% in 2025, reaching 140.1879 trillion yuan. The primary sector grew by 3.9%, the secondary sector by 4.5%, and the tertiary sector by 5.4%. At the same time, the inflation picture remained weak: in December 2025, the CPI rose by only 0.8% year-on-year, while core inflation rose by 1.2%. This indicated that the Chinese economy maintained its manufacturing and export strength, but domestic consumer demand remained insufficiently robust.
India, by contrast, remained the main growth driver among major economies. According to the government’s first preliminary estimate, India’s real GDP was projected to grow by 7.4% in the 2025/26 fiscal year, following 6.5% in the 2024/25 fiscal year. Nominal GDP was estimated to grow by 8.0%, with the services sector being the main driver of real GVA. At the same time, inflation remained very low: in December 2025, the CPI stood at 1.33% year-on-year, and food inflation was negative.
At the start of 2026, Turkey remained an example of an economy with relatively high growth but a challenging inflationary legacy. According to TurkStat, inflation stood at 30.89% year-on-year in December 2025 and at 30.65% in January 2026. Subsequent official data from the Turkish Ministry of Trade showed that the country’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2025 and by 3.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
Brazil ended 2025 on a cautiously positive note. According to IBGE data, IPCA inflation in 2025 stood at 4.26%, while the December monthly rate was 0.33%. Brazil’s GDP in 2025 grew by 2.3%, reaching 12.7 trillion reais at current prices. Growth was observed in all three major sectors: agriculture, industry, and services.
“China, India, Turkey, and Brazil clearly demonstrate how diverse the dynamics of major emerging economies have become. China has a large scale and a strong manufacturing base, but its price momentum remains weak. India demonstrates the most compelling combination of high growth and low inflation. Turkey maintains its momentum, but the price of this growth is a very high inflation rate. Brazil is moving more moderately but more balanced. “It is important for Ukraine to view these examples not in the abstract, but practically: in global competition, the economies that win are those capable of simultaneously maintaining macro-stability, a manufacturing base, exports, and domestic investment demand,” Urakin believes.
Conclusions
As of the end of January 2026, Ukraine was in a mode of managed macrofinancial stabilization. Inflation was declining, the discount rate had been cautiously reduced to 15%, international reserves had reached a historic high, and the economy maintained positive growth after the end of 2025. At the same time, this stability remained dependent on three key conditions: regular external financing, a controlled situation in the foreign exchange market, and the state’s ability to sustain domestic demand without triggering a new wave of inflation.
The main risks for Ukraine at the start of 2026 remained war-related losses, energy infrastructure deficits, weak exports, high budgetary needs, dependence on international aid, and a structural labor shortage. A positive factor was that the NBU had record reserves and room for cautious policy easing. A negative factor was that the real production and export base had not yet created sufficient domestic resources for self-sustained recovery.
The global economy was not in a phase of deep crisis at that time. The IMF projected global growth of 3.3% in 2026; the U.S. remained stable, the eurozone stayed close to its inflation target, India demonstrated high growth rates, and China remained a large but structurally mixed source of global demand. At the same time, none of these external factors guaranteed Ukraine a rapid recovery without domestic decisions.
“January 2026 showed that Ukraine is entering the new year not from a position of economic breakthrough, but from a position of maintained manageability. This is important because, in the context of war, the very ability to control inflation, the exchange rate, budget needs, and reserves is already a significant achievement. But the next stage will be more challenging: the country needs to transition from a model of survival and stabilization to a model of productive recovery. This means investing in energy, the defense-industrial complex, processing, logistics, export-oriented industries, human capital, and technology. Without this, even record reserves and foreign aid will remain merely a financial cushion, not a source of long-term growth,” concluded Maksym Urakin.
The monthly analytical and statistical product “Economic Monitoring” is available to Interfax-Ukraine clients.
Maksym Urakin, Head of the “Economic Monitoring” project, Director of Development and Marketing at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Doctor of Philosophy in History, and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center
ECONOMY, EXPERTS_CLUB, MACROECONOMICS, MONITORING, Ukrainian_economy, URAKIN
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of June 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Ukraine ended the first half of 2025 in a state of moderate but fragile stabilization. After a “flat” start to the year and a weak first quarter, which the NBU assessed as a period of subdued activity, in April-June the economy maintained positive momentum primarily due to domestic consumption and sectors that adapted to military logistics. In its April decision, the NBU kept the policy rate at 15.5%, emphasizing the need to support currency stability and reduce inflation expectations; in its July decision, the regulator confirmed this level, which anchored rates for hryvnia instruments.
Inflation slowed significantly: in June, the annual rate fell to 14.3% y/y (from 15.9% in May), reflecting a combination of tighter monetary policy, currency stability, and price adjustments for certain food groups; the monthly rate was +0.8%. This is the first significant “dip” in annual inflation below 15% this year.
Foreign trade remains the main source of imbalances. In January–May, exports of goods amounted to about $16.95 billion, imports to $31.54 billion, and the negative balance deepened to $14.6 billion (+49% y/y). The key drivers of imports were energy, machinery, and chemicals; exports were structurally biased toward food and raw materials.
Against the backdrop of the trade gap, international reserves remained an important buffer. As of July 1, 2025, they reached $45.1 billion (+1.2% in June) thanks to large inflows from partners (in particular, the EU, Canada, and the World Bank), which exceeded FX interventions and debt payments. This is a historically high level for Ukraine and a critical safety margin for the currency market.
“Current growth is supported by consumption and official financing; without the launch of an investment cycle, it will remain low and unsustainable. International reserves are a stabilization tool, not a source of development; the effect will only appear after they are converted into value-added projects. The trade deficit, in turn, is structural in nature: it should be addressed through logistics, energy modernization, and localization of production, not just exchange rate decisions,” said Maksim Urakin.
The debt burden has increased. As of June 30, 2025, the total public and publicly guaranteed debt was estimated at approximately $184.8 billion (equivalent to UAH 7.697 trillion), adding nearly $3.9 billion in a month. External liabilities structurally prevail, which increases dependence on official financing.
International support remained systemic. On June 30, the IMF completed the eighth review of the EFF program and approved further financing (total payments under the program exceeded $10 billion), while confirming Ukraine’s fulfillment of key criteria and continuation of structural reforms.
“The second quarter showed that the economy has learned to operate in a mode of constant shocks — we see the resilience of small and medium-sized businesses, the flexibility of logistics, and the rapid reorientation of exporters. But the fundamentals remain unchanged: the investment cycle has not been launched, and the trade deficit is structural; it will not disappear without a targeted industrial policy and incentives for localizing production. The discount rate of 15.5% is a compromise between the price of money and currency stability; it works as long as official financing enters the country. If we want to get out of “survival mode,” we need long-term money to restore energy, logistics hubs, and high-tech production. Reserves of over $45 billion are not a reason to relax, but a window of opportunity that must be converted into value-added projects, otherwise exchange rate stability will remain expensive and temporary,” Maksim Urakin emphasized:
Global economy
The world moved unevenly in the first half of 2025. After a technical contraction in the first quarter (-0.5% SAAR, -0.1% q/q), the US entered the second quarter with a recovery in demand: by the end of June, there were already signs of easing price pressure on the PCE index (≈2.5% y/y in May) and stabilization of household spending. Later official estimates show a significant rebound in the second quarter, but as of June 30, the key picture was “cold” demand amid high interest rates.
The eurozone showed a contrast: after a strong Q1 (+0.6% q/q), momentum moderated in April–June; preliminary estimates show Q2 added +0.1% q/q. The factors were weak external conditions, a correction in industry, and cautious consumers, despite easing inflation. The UK remained a positive exception among the G7: +0.7% q/q in Q1 and +0.3% q/q in Q2, although inflation accelerated to 3.6% y/y in June, slowing down the pace of monetary policy easing.
China maintained a pace close to its official target: GDP +5.2% y/y in Q2 (after +5.4% in Q1), but inflation remained sluggish — June CPI +0.1% y/y, reflecting weak domestic consumption and pressure from real estate. Exports and industrial production drove growth, but the question of the sustainability of domestic demand remained open.
Turkey grew by 2.0% y/y in Q1; inflation in June fell to ≈35% y/y, demonstrating the effect of protracted disinflation despite high rates and a cool business cycle.
India remained the most dynamic major economy: in Q4 of fiscal year 2024/25, real GDP grew by 7.4% y/y, and by 6.5% for the year as a whole; inflation in June came close to ≈2% y/y (according to MoSPI publications), creating room for cautious policy easing going forward.
Brazil added +1.4% q/q (2.9% y/y) in Q1 on the back of strong agriculture; the IPCA in June was 5.35% y/y (+0.24% m/m), remaining above the central bank’s target and forcing monetary authorities to act cautiously.
“Global growth in the first half of 2025 is a mosaic of different speeds. The US is balancing between tight rates and the desire not to ”overbrake” demand, Europe is slowly emerging from stagnation, China is holding the bar thanks to exports, but domestic demand has not yet recovered. For Ukraine, this means one simple thing: we should not expect external demand to pull us out of the doldrums on its own. We need targeted industrial programs, support for high value-added exports, and a transparent import substitution policy where it makes economic sense. Then, even amid global turbulence, we will be able to turn record reserves and international support into a long investment cycle and a new economic structure,” Maxim Urakhin concluded.
At the end of June 2025, Ukraine’s economy remains in a state of controlled equilibrium: inflation is slowing, reserves are at historic levels, and monetary policy is predictable. At the same time, a deep trade deficit, high debt burden, and weak investment flows remain key risks that require immediate responses — from tax and customs policy to incentives for localizing production and restoring critical infrastructure.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1113998.html
Industrial production in Ukraine increased by 3.2% in July 2025 compared to July last year. This is the second consecutive month of growth: in June, the indicator rose by 2.9%, while in May and April, a decline was recorded, according to the State Statistics Service.
In January-July 2025, the total volume of industrial production was 3% lower than in the same period of 2024. The decline in the extractive industry was 11.1%, and in the production of coke and petroleum products, 6.3%.
The volume of industrial products sold over seven months reached UAH 2,296.5 billion, of which UAH 406.4 billion was accounted for by exports.
The main industries that showed growth in July compared to last year were:
– pharmaceuticals — +23.6%;
– furniture manufacturing — +22%;
– rubber and plastic products manufacturing — +12.7%;
– electricity, gas, and steam supply — +10.2%;
– woodworking — +8.4%;
– food industry — +3.4%;
– coke production — +2.5%;
– electrical equipment — +1.8%;
– automotive industry — +0.5%;
– oil and gas production — +0.4%.
At the same time, there was a decline in:
– coal mining — by 1.6%;
– metal ore mining — by 7.7%;
– textile manufacturing — by 7.1%;
– computer and electronics manufacturing — by 6%;
– metallurgy — by 0.8%;
– mechanical engineering — by 0.1%.
Interestingly, the mining and quarrying segment recorded growth of 49.1%.
Compared to June 2025, industrial production in July increased by 0.6%.
In 2024, industrial production in Ukraine grew by 4.6%.
According to Maxim Urakhin, co-founder of the Experts Club analytical center, July’s growth shows that Ukraine’s industry is gradually adapting to military conditions and external challenges:
“We are seeing a local recovery in pharmaceuticals, wood processing, and energy. These are the sectors that respond most quickly to domestic demand and the needs of the economy. However, the decline in metallurgy and mining reminds us of structural problems: export-oriented industries continue to suffer from logistics and declining global demand. By the end of the year, industry may show a moderate recovery, but investment in modernization and expansion of export routes is necessary to achieve sustainable growth,” Maxim Urakin noted.
Brazil’s Ministry of Finance has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025, but expects the economic upturn to slow down as a result of the country’s central bank’s tight monetary policy.
The GDP growth forecast for the current year has been raised to 2.5% from the 2.4% expected in May, and for 2026 it has been lowered to 2.4% from 2.5%.
The forecasts do not take into account the consequences of Washington’s introduction of 50% tariffs on all imports from Brazil, the Ministry of Finance notes. Earlier, US President Donald Trump announced that these tariffs would take effect on August 1.
“The tariffs are unlikely to have a significant impact on GDP growth in 2025, although certain industries may suffer quite severely,” the Ministry of Finance said in a statement.
In the first quarter of this year, Brazil’s GDP increased by 1.4% compared to the previous three months, the highest in three quarters. GDP growth in annual terms was 2.9%.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center made a video analysis of the prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies. For more details, see the video at https://youtu.be/kQsH3lUvMKo?si=F4IOLdLuVbYmEh5P
In the first half of 2025, the Ukrainian economy demonstrates fragile but positive growth, despite the difficult external environment and high dependence on international financial support. This is stated in an analytical review published by the Experts Club information and analytical center on YouTube.
“We are seeing a cautious but still positive signal: Ukraine’s economy is growing, albeit very slowly. The National Bank forecasts GDP growth of 2.5-3.1% in 2025. This is above the survival line, but not enough for a full recovery,” said Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of Experts Club.
“Inflation remains at 12-13%, which continues to reduce the purchasing power of the population. Despite the NBU’s moderate monetary policy, the pressure on households remains,” the economist explained.
The situation in foreign trade also remains alarming. In May 2025, the trade deficit in goods and services reached $4.1 billion. Imports amounted to $7 billion, while exports were only $3.4 billion. Trade in services also has a negative balance – $1.8 billion against $1.3 billion.
“The structure of exports shows changes. Supplies of pharmaceuticals, wood and live animals are growing, but grain exports have fallen by almost a quarter. And this is even before the loss of possible EUR 3.5 billion in revenues due to the end of EU customs privileges,” emphasizes Urakin.
At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves have increased – as of June 1, they amounted to $44.54 billion. This is more than at the end of 2024, although it is 4.6% less than in April. But the public debt, according to Urakin, remains critically high – $179.2 billion (about 94% of GDP), of which more than $134 billion are external liabilities.
“The reserves are currently sufficient to stabilize the exchange rate and payments. But this is a resource that cannot be exhausted indefinitely. Ukraine remains critically dependent on international assistance – from the IMF, the EU and other partners,” he emphasized.
The global economy, according to the IMF and the World Bank, is expected to show the slowest growth in the last decade in 2025, at 2.3-2.8%. Inflationary pressures, trade disputes, and geopolitical instability are limiting the potential for global recovery. The Bank for International Settlements describes the situation as a “turning point” due to protectionism, declining productivity, and demographic risks.
The United States recorded its first decline in GDP since 2022, down 0.5% year-on-year in the first quarter. The main reasons are weakening consumer demand and declining exports. However, the Atlanta Fed predicts a recovery – 2.5% growth in the second quarter. PCE inflation is 3.1%, core inflation is 2.6%, and the Fed’s key policy rate remains at 5.25-5.5%.
In China, the economy grew by 5.4% in the first quarter. However, the official PMI in June remained below the 50 mark (49.7), indicating instability in the industry. Meanwhile, the private Caixin PMI exceeded 50 for the first time in several months.
The Eurozone is showing signs of stabilization: in the first quarter, GDP grew by 0.6% y-o-y, inflation in June was exactly 2%, i.e. within the ECB’s target. Manufacturing indices are also improving. Germany is still feeling the effects of the last recession. The GDP growth forecast is only 0.3-0.4%, although the manufacturing PMI has exceeded 50 for the first time since 2022. Retail trade, however, remains weak.
The UK surprised with positive dynamics – 0.7% growth in the first quarter, the highest among the G7. Inflation in May was 3.4%, with the Bank of England’s key policy rate at 4.25%.
India continues to lead the way in terms of growth – 7.4% in the first quarter. Inflation was only 2.82%. The central bank cut its key policy rate to 5.5% in response to lower inflationary pressures.
Brazil is expected to grow at 2.1-2.4%, but inflation in May was 5.32%. This forced the regulator to maintain the high Selic rate of 15%.
Japan is showing the first signs of recovery. The PMI in industry reached 50.1, and the composite PMI – 51.4. Inflation in services is 3.3%, and the Bank of Japan may raise rates as early as 2026.
“The global economy is in a turning point. The US and Europe are stagnating, while China is recovering cautiously. Germany and the UK are showing weak but stable growth. India remains the engine of global development. For Ukraine, the main thing is not to lose momentum, maintain access to international financing and adapt to the new conditions of global trade,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
The material was prepared based on the analytical review by Experts Club. Watch the video for more details at the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQsH3lUvMKo&t
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Ukraine’s negative foreign trade balance in goods in January-April 2025 increased by 48.5% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching $11.512 billion from $7.755 billion, according to the State Statistics Service (Gosstat).
According to its data, exports of goods from Ukraine during the specified period compared to January-April 2024 decreased by 6.9% to $13.312 billion, while imports increased by 12.6% to $24.824 billion.
The statistics agency specified that in April 2025, compared to March 2025, seasonally adjusted exports decreased by 4.4% to $3.369 billion, and imports decreased by 2.3% to $6.529 billion.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in April 2025 was negative at $3.161 billion, as it was in the previous month at $3.163 billion.
The export-to-import coverage ratio in January-February 2025 was 0.54 (in January-April 2024, it was 0.65).
The State Statistics Service reported that foreign trade operations were conducted with partners from 217 countries around the world.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video analysis of the Ukrainian and global economies, more details here –
https://youtu.be/LT0sE3ymMnQ?si=0Cstf1AY9xZ4Dxxx
