According to Experts.news, Ukraine could account for about 31.3% of global sunflower oil exports in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to calculations by Open4Business based on the September forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, published on September 11, 2026, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports are projected to reach 5 million metric tons, while global exports are expected to total 15.968 million metric tons.
Thus, nearly one in every three metric tons of sunflower oil supplied to the global market may be of Ukrainian origin.
In the previous 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine exported approximately 4.036 million metric tons of sunflower oil out of total global exports of about 13.51 million metric tons. At that time, Ukraine’s share was about 29.9%. In the new season, this figure may increase by approximately 1.4 percentage points.
The USDA expects Ukraine to remain the world’s second-largest exporter of sunflower oil after Russia. Russian shipments are projected at 5.1 million metric tons, accounting for approximately 31.9% of global exports.
Together, Ukraine and Russia could supply about 10.1 million metric tons to foreign markets, or more than 63% of total global sunflower oil exports.
Argentina will remain the third-largest exporter, with projected shipments of about 2.05 million metric tons, accounting for approximately 12.8% of global trade. Turkey is expected to export about 1.1 million metric tons, and the European Union—about 850,000 metric tons.
The growth in Ukrainian exports will be driven by a recovery in the sunflower harvest and increased capacity utilization at processing plants. The USDA forecasts sunflower seed production in Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year at 13 million metric tons, compared to 10.7 million metric tons in the previous season.
Sunflower oil production, according to the agency’s estimates, will increase to 5.418 million metric tons from 4.515 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, or by approximately 20%.
At the same time, domestic consumption of sunflower oil in Ukraine is expected to reach about 470,000 metric tons, so the bulk of the additional production will be directed toward exports.
Overall, the USDA forecasts global sunflower oil exports to grow by approximately 18%—from 13.51 million metric tons in the previous season to 15.968 million metric tons in the 2026/27 marketing year.
The increase in supply will largely be driven by a recovery in production in the Black Sea region, primarily in Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, imports are expected to rise from the largest consumers of vegetable oils, notably India and China.
Ukraine traditionally remains one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of sunflower oil. A distinctive feature of the Ukrainian industry is the high proportion of domestic seed processing, which means that exports consist primarily of higher-value-added products—oil and meal—rather than raw materials.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, September 11, 2026: official USDA report.
According to Experts Club, the global oil market has entered a phase of a major fuel crisis following more than half a year of declining commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products, while the options for further drawing on strategic reserves are becoming increasingly limited, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing executives from the largest U.S. oil companies.
As the publication notes, U.S. oil companies have been warning for several months that prolonged restrictions on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would ultimately lead to a fuel shortage. Now, according to their assessment, that moment has arrived.
Global commercial fuel stocks have been declining for more than six months. At the same time, governments have already been actively drawing on strategic reserves to keep prices in check, so the volume of available additional supply has dropped significantly. The WSJ emphasizes that this does not mean government reserves have physically run out, but rather that the scope for new large-scale interventions is becoming significantly narrower.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated as early as September 11 that the reserves and other mechanisms that had kept oil prices from rising for several months “have largely run their course.” According to him, global commercial oil reserves were at high levels at the beginning of the year, but by September they had declined significantly.
The attack on the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia—which allows oil to be exported bypassing the Strait of Hormuz—dealt an additional blow to the market. Analysts estimate that after the pipeline was shut down, at least 2.5 million barrels of oil per day disappeared from the market.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also confirms these supply issues. The agency describes the situation as the largest disruption to oil supplies in the history of the global market. Before the crisis, approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil and another 5 million barrels of petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, which together accounted for about 20% of global oil consumption.
To stabilize the market, IEA member countries agreed back in March to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves—the largest such release in the agency’s history. However, as the crisis drags on, this reserve mechanism is becoming less effective.
According to the latest available IEA data, from the start of the Middle East crisis through the end of July alone, global observed oil stocks fell by approximately 410 million barrels, or an average of 2.7 million barrels per day. Total stocks fell below 7.9 billion barrels for the first time since April 2025.
The situation is particularly tense in the diesel and jet fuel markets. The IEA notes a sharp decline in international shipments of petroleum products and a record increase in refining margins. Diesel exports from Russia, the Middle East, and Asia were approximately 1.3 million barrels per day lower than last year’s level, accounting for about one-fifth of global seaborne diesel trade.
An additional risk stems from China. In previous months, the country had cut imports and partially drawn down its own stockpiles, helping to curb global demand. However, by August, Chinese refineries were already processing more crude oil than was supplied by current imports and domestic production, prompting the country to draw down its stockpiles more aggressively.
Against this backdrop, Brent crude is once again trading above $100 per barrel. Following a new attack on Saudi infrastructure, Brent prices rose to approximately $107.5 per barrel on September 15, while WTI prices climbed above $103.
The IEA identifies the restoration of full-scale oil and petroleum product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz as the key factor capable of quickly stabilizing the market. Without this, the global economy will remain vulnerable to new disruptions, as a significant portion of the reserves that helped the world weather the first months of the crisis has already been depleted.
Source: The Wall Street Journal article “Oil Executives Say the Great Fuel Crisis Is Here” dated September 15, 2026.
According to Experts.news, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year at 5 million metric tons, which is nearly 24% higher than the previous season’s figure of 4.036 million metric tons.
According to the USDA’s September report, *Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade*, sunflower oil production in Ukraine is expected to reach 5.418 million metric tons, up from 4.515 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year—an increase of approximately 20%.
At the same time, domestic consumption of sunflower oil is projected to remain relatively stable—470,000 metric tons compared to 455,000 metric tons in the previous season. The USDA estimates ending stocks at 213,000 metric tons, compared to 265,000 metric tons. Thus, most of the increase in production is likely to be directed toward export markets.
Ukraine will remain one of the world’s two largest exporters of sunflower oil. The USDA forecasts exports from Russia at 5.1 million metric tons, Ukraine at 5 million metric tons, Argentina at 2.05 million metric tons, Turkey at 1.1 million metric tons, and the EU at 850,000 metric tons.
The USDA estimates total global sunflower oil exports at 15.968 million metric tons, compared to 13.51 million metric tons in the previous season.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, September 11, 2026.
From September 1 to 9, Ukraine exported 630,000 metric tons of grains, oilseeds, and products derived from them, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky said at a briefing on Friday.
“From September 1 to 9, 630,000 metric tons of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products were exported. As of today, this represents 40% of what we could have exported. We ended August at 33%. Our forecast remains unchanged—to reach 50% of the target for September–October,” Vysotsky said.
According to him, 380,000 metric tons of grains were exported (35% of demand), 94,000 metric tons of oilseeds (64%), 97,000 metric tons of oil (66%), and 60,000 metric tons of meal (33%).
Vysotsky noted that compared to 2025, exports of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products have decreased by 60%.
According to The Serbian Economist, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury has extended a special license to the Croatian company JANAF, allowing it to continue transporting crude oil for the Serbian company NIS until September 30, 2026.
The company reported that it received the license extension with the assistance of the Croatian government and U.S. legal advisors. The authorization allows it to continue fulfilling its existing contract with NIS within the framework of the U.S. sanctions regime.
Thus, crude oil deliveries via the Adriatic Pipeline can continue for at least another month. The oil arrives by sea at the JANAF terminal in Omišalj on the island of Krk, after which it is transported via the pipeline system toward Serbia and used by the NIS refinery in Pančevo.
This decision is of critical importance for Serbia. The refinery in Pančevo is the country’s only large oil refinery and meets about 80% of the Serbian market’s demand for petroleum products. The facility’s design capacity is up to 4.8 million metric tons of crude processed per year.
NIS itself received a separate special license on August 28. It is also valid until September 30 and allows the company to continue oil refining, crude oil imports, financial transactions, technical maintenance, and other operations necessary to ensure a stable supply to the market.
The extension of the license is particularly important given the problems with alternative supply channels. Due to low water levels in the Danube, the capacity to import fuel by barge has been significantly reduced this summer. In July, fuel imports via this route amounted to only about a quarter of the planned volume, which has increased Serbia’s dependence on the Pančevo refinery and supplies via JANAF.
NIS and JANAF are bound by a three-year contract for the transportation of up to 10 million metric tons of crude oil, which remains in effect until December 2026. Actual supply volumes depend on the amount of oil that NIS purchases and delivers to the Omišalj terminal.
The main issue now concerns the change in NIS’s ownership structure. Hungary’s MOL is in talks with Gazprom Neft regarding the purchase of a 56.15% stake in the company. A potential deal is seen as a long-term way to remove NIS from U.S. sanctions. OFAC has also issued separate temporary licenses to facilitate the negotiations.
U.S. sanctions against NIS took full effect in October 2025 due to Russian control over the company. Since then, OFAC has repeatedly issued temporary licenses, allowing Serbia to maintain the refinery’s operations and oil shipments through Croatia for the duration of negotiations regarding the sale of the Russian stake.
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