Rapeseed oil exports from Ukraine in July–February of the 2025/26 marketing year increased 2.2-fold compared to the same period last season, while foreign exchange earnings rose 2.7-fold, according to the Ukroliyaprom association.
The association also reported a sharp increase in the rapeseed meal segment. Over the first eight months of the season, exports of rapeseed meal increased 2.3-fold, while foreign exchange revenue rose by 85%.
Ukroliyaprom views this trend as evidence of the industry’s strategic shift from exporting raw materials to selling products with higher added value.
According to the association’s assessment, it was the increase in rapeseed processing, along with soybeans, that made it possible to offset the shortage of sunflower seeds and maintain oilseed processing plants’ capacity utilization at a stable level.
At the same time, the industry continues to operate under difficult conditions. Among the main risks, the association cites restrictions on energy supply, risks to exports via seaports, and the vulnerability of rail logistics.
Overall, oil and fat products remain one of the key items in Ukrainian exports. According to Ukroliyaprom, they account for 19.2% of total goods exports, or $7.737 billion.
According to Serbian Economist, the Hungarian government has designated the “Hungary–Serbia” oil pipeline and related infrastructure as a priority investment project, which is expected to speed up administrative procedures and construction work. Budapest views the project as part of a broader strategy to better coordinate the energy and fuel markets of Hungary, Serbia, and Slovakia. The Hungarian side believes this will enhance the resilience of regional energy supplies and reduce dependence on external risks.
Hungarian media reports state that the government’s goal is to bring the system into full operation in 2027 or 2028. The new route is intended to create an additional foundation for oil supplies to the region amid the continued vulnerability of existing supply lines.
The issue is particularly sensitive for the region following supply problems with the Druzhba pipeline, a section of which on Ukrainian territory was damaged in January. Against this backdrop, Budapest has in recent weeks linked energy security issues to broader regional policy.
For Serbia, accelerating the project is important both in terms of diversifying supply routes and in the context of ongoing uncertainty surrounding NIS and oil imports. The new pipeline could become one of the country’s key energy infrastructure projects.
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According to Bloomberg, U.S. administration officials are analyzing what a potential spike in oil prices to $200 per barrel would mean for the American economy. The publication’s source links this analysis to an assessment of extreme scenarios for the conflict in the Middle East.
Thus, the claim that the White House is testing its readiness for a $200-per-barrel oil scenario is generally confirmed by the Bloomberg report. However, this currently refers specifically to an internal stress scenario and an assessment of its consequences, rather than a publicly announced forecast or the U.S. administration’s official baseline scenario.
The sharp volatility in the oil market amid the war in the Persian Gulf region provided additional context for this assessment. Reuters reported that on March 24, Brent closed at $102.22 per barrel and WTI at $90.32, after which prices rose again on March 25: Brent climbed to $104.30 and WTI to $92.25.
The key risk for the market is linked to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies pass. Reuters noted that disruptions in this corridor have already become the largest disruption to oil supplies, and further escalation in the Middle East remains the main factor that could push prices significantly higher than current levels.
At the same time, more cautious assessments are being voiced within the administration itself. As Reuters reported on March 12, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called oil at $200 per barrel an unlikely scenario, though he acknowledged that authorities are closely monitoring the situation.
Amid rising prices, Washington has already deployed crisis-response tools. Reuters reported that the U.S. released 45.2 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to companies under a loan program, and earlier the administration also considered other measures to curb prices, including actions in the oil futures market and possible restrictions on fuel exports.
In other words, the information that the U.S. is preparing for an extreme scenario with oil at $200 per barrel is based on a Bloomberg report and fits into the broader context of steps Washington has already taken to mitigate energy risks. However, there is currently no official confirmation that this specific price level is considered the White House’s baseline expectation.
The price of May Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $6.09 (6.62%) to $98.07 per barrel at 7:12 a.m. Earlier during the session, Brent again exceeded $100 per barrel. On Wednesday, the contract rose in price by $4.18 (4.8%) to $91.98 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) are currently up $5.29 (6.06%) to $92.54 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts rose by $3.8 (4.6%) to $87.25 per barrel.
An Iranian underwater drone attacked two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf overnight, Iranian state television IRIB reported. Earlier, a source in the Iraqi security service in Basra told CNN that a ship loaded with explosives rammed into two tankers at once.
CNN specifies that the ships Zefyros, flying the Maltese flag, and Safesea Vishnu, flying the Marshall Islands flag, were on fire. The registered owner of the Safesea Vishnu is the American company Safesea Transport Inc., while the owner of the Zefyros is based in Greece.
Iraq’s oil ports have been suspended following the fire, according to Farhan al-Fartousi, head of the Iraqi Ports Authority. He said one person had died and 38 others had been rescued.
Meanwhile, Oman has ordered ships to leave the Mina al-Fahal export terminal as a precaution, Bloomberg reports, citing informed sources. According to Kpler, about 1 million barrels of oil were exported from the terminal daily.
Earlier, a representative of the Iranian armed forces said that the world should prepare for oil at $200 per barrel, as fuel prices depend on security in the region, and Israel and the US have violated this security with their actions.
“The only thing that could lead to a long-term decline in prices is the resumption of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz,” ING analysts wrote. “If this does not happen, we can expect new highs.”
Oil prices rose yesterday, despite the fact that OPEC member countries agreed to supply a record 400 million barrels from their strategic reserves to the world market. The timing of the release of reserves will depend on the circumstances in each individual country. The total strategic oil reserves of IEA member countries exceed 1.2 billion barrels, with another 600 million barrels in state-owned industrial reserves.
“The release of IEA oil reserves may only be a temporary solution, while supply disruptions and significant production cuts in some Middle Eastern countries could cause a long-term supply shortage,” said Tina Teng of Moomoo ANZ.
On Wednesday, it was also reported that commercial oil reserves in the US rose by 3.824 million barrels last week to a maximum of 443.1 million barrels since May 2025. Experts had forecast an average increase of 1.1 million barrels, according to Trading Economics.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video dedicated to global oil production in 1900–2024 and the leading producing countries.
Brent, EXPERTS CLUB, IRAN, OIL, TANKER
Several major oil companies have already suspended crude oil and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and the price of Brent crude could rise from $73 to around $80 per barrel, Reuters reports.
“Four sources said on Saturday that some major oil companies and leading trading houses have suspended crude oil and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz,” the agency said in a statement.
On Friday, Brent crude traded at around $73 per barrel, which is already 20% higher than at the beginning of the year.
William Jackson, chief economist for emerging markets at Capital Economics, said that even if the conflict is localized, the price of Brent crude could rise to around $80, which was the peak during the 12-day war in Iran in June last year.
On Saturday, the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, targeting its leadership. “The strikes have caused concern in neighboring Arab oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf, as fears of an escalation of the conflict have intensified, and Tehran has responded by firing missiles toward Israel,” the agency notes.
Iran is a major oil producer and is located across the Strait of Hormuz from the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass. The conflict could limit oil supplies to the world market and cause prices to rise, Reuters writes.
On Sunday, OPEC+ may consider increasing oil production more than already planned.
Grain exports by rail to seaports remain stable and account for 91% of total rail shipments of agricultural products, according to analysts at Spike Brokers.
According to monitoring data for February, 1.368 million tons of grain were transported to ports, which is 0.8% more than in the same period last year. The TIS terminal in the port of Chornomorsk showed the most positive dynamics (+54%), while the Danube ports, in particular Izmail, recorded a significant drop in volumes (-60%). Currently, more than 11,000 railcars with grain are moving towards the ports of Greater Odessa, and the average daily load on the network in this direction has increased to 1,172 railcars per day.
“The western corridor actually became the main channel for oil exports by rail in February, and the share of the border in this segment increased to 66%,” analysts noted.
At the same time, road exports of agricultural products in February amounted to 185,000 tons. Geographically, the Polish direction dominates (about 50% of the flow), where 4,000-5,300 tons of cargo are processed daily.
Structurally, the road channel is focused on value-added products: in the first 19 days of the month, 15,600 tons of poultry meat were exported, as well as significant volumes of bakery products (6,400 tons) and confectionery (4,500 tons).
In the oil rail transport segment, there has been a radical shift towards land crossings: cross-border exports increased by 112% to 56.9 thousand tons. The largest increase was recorded at the Chop (+410%) and Mostyska II (+310%) crossings. In contrast, sea exports of oil by rail fell by 36% (to 29.1 thousand tons), and the share of ports in this segment fell to 34%.
A similar trend is observed for meal, where 75% of the volume (113.6 thousand tons) is shipped across land borders, Spike Brokers concluded.
