Several major oil companies have already suspended crude oil and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and the price of Brent crude could rise from $73 to around $80 per barrel, Reuters reports.
“Four sources said on Saturday that some major oil companies and leading trading houses have suspended crude oil and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz,” the agency said in a statement.
On Friday, Brent crude traded at around $73 per barrel, which is already 20% higher than at the beginning of the year.
William Jackson, chief economist for emerging markets at Capital Economics, said that even if the conflict is localized, the price of Brent crude could rise to around $80, which was the peak during the 12-day war in Iran in June last year.
On Saturday, the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, targeting its leadership. “The strikes have caused concern in neighboring Arab oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf, as fears of an escalation of the conflict have intensified, and Tehran has responded by firing missiles toward Israel,” the agency notes.
Iran is a major oil producer and is located across the Strait of Hormuz from the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass. The conflict could limit oil supplies to the world market and cause prices to rise, Reuters writes.
On Sunday, OPEC+ may consider increasing oil production more than already planned.
Grain exports by rail to seaports remain stable and account for 91% of total rail shipments of agricultural products, according to analysts at Spike Brokers.
According to monitoring data for February, 1.368 million tons of grain were transported to ports, which is 0.8% more than in the same period last year. The TIS terminal in the port of Chornomorsk showed the most positive dynamics (+54%), while the Danube ports, in particular Izmail, recorded a significant drop in volumes (-60%). Currently, more than 11,000 railcars with grain are moving towards the ports of Greater Odessa, and the average daily load on the network in this direction has increased to 1,172 railcars per day.
“The western corridor actually became the main channel for oil exports by rail in February, and the share of the border in this segment increased to 66%,” analysts noted.
At the same time, road exports of agricultural products in February amounted to 185,000 tons. Geographically, the Polish direction dominates (about 50% of the flow), where 4,000-5,300 tons of cargo are processed daily.
Structurally, the road channel is focused on value-added products: in the first 19 days of the month, 15,600 tons of poultry meat were exported, as well as significant volumes of bakery products (6,400 tons) and confectionery (4,500 tons).
In the oil rail transport segment, there has been a radical shift towards land crossings: cross-border exports increased by 112% to 56.9 thousand tons. The largest increase was recorded at the Chop (+410%) and Mostyska II (+310%) crossings. In contrast, sea exports of oil by rail fell by 36% (to 29.1 thousand tons), and the share of ports in this segment fell to 34%.
A similar trend is observed for meal, where 75% of the volume (113.6 thousand tons) is shipped across land borders, Spike Brokers concluded.
Hungary has decided to block the allocation of a EUR90 billion EU loan to Ukraine until oil transit to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline is resumed, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said.
On Friday evening, he again accused Ukraine on social media of allegedly blackmailing Hungary by stopping oil transit in coordination with Brussels and the Hungarian opposition in order to create supply disruptions in Hungary and raise fuel prices ahead of the elections.
According to Szijjártó, Ukraine is violating the Association Agreement with the EU.
As reported with reference to Ukrtransnafta, as a result of a targeted Russian attack on January 27, significant damage was caused to the technological and auxiliary equipment of the Druzhba oil pipeline.
“Currently, work is underway at various stages to detect defects, stabilize the technical condition of the system, and eliminate the consequences of the hostile attack. Emergency repair work is being carried out with the involvement of specialized technical units and specialized equipment,” the company said in an official comment to Interfax-Ukraine on February 19.
Hungary and Slovakia stopped supplying diesel fuel to Ukraine on February 18 until the transit of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline is restored.
The European Commission, in turn, convened a meeting of the oil coordination group on February 25 in connection with the suspension of supplies to Hungary and Slovakia due to Russia’s damage to the Druzhba oil pipeline.
Foreign exchange earnings from rapeseed oil exports from Ukraine in the second half of 2025 increased 2.2 times compared to the same period of the previous season, while rapeseed meal revenues increased 1.4 times, according to Dmytro Kysilevsky, deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Economic Development, citing data from the Ukroliyaprom association.
“The introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed has allowed Ukraine to increase the production of oil and meal from these raw materials, as well as to increase exports of processed products,” he wrote on Facebook.
According to the association’s data, in July-December 2025, rapeseed processing into oil increased 1.8 times. In the soybean segment, in September-December 2025, oil production increased by 22.4%, exports by 23.3%, and foreign exchange earnings by 1.5 times.
“The processing of soybeans into oil and meal exceeded its exports by 3.7%,” the parliamentarian emphasized.
Ukroliyaprom predicts that in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June), rapeseed processing will reach a record 1.7 million tons (over 50% of the gross harvest), and soybeans — 3.0 million tons (over 60%). This will ensure the production of 720,000 tons of rapeseed oil and 600,000 tons of soybean oil.
Kysilevsky emphasized that the processing model proved its effectiveness in the very first season of the duty law, providing billions of hryvnias in taxes. He also recalled the support programs “Made in Ukraine,” in particular, “5-7-9” loans and 25% compensation for the cost of agricultural machinery.
Indian oil refineries have begun to avoid new purchases of Russian oil for delivery in March-April amid talks between New Delhi and Washington on a trade agreement, which the parties hope to finalize by March, Reuters reports, citing traders and industry sources.
According to the agency, Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Reliance Industries are not accepting offers for Russian oil with shipments in March and April, although some refineries still have previously agreed deliveries for March. Reuters notes that most other refiners have also stopped new purchases from Russia.
At the same time, as Reuters emphasized earlier, Indian refineries have not received official instructions to stop importing Russian oil and, in the event of a policy change, would require a transition period to complete deals that are already in progress.
The context is the move by the US and India towards an interim trade agreement and the expectation of finalization in March. Against this backdrop, according to Reuters, the US has eased tariff pressure on India, and the American side has publicly linked this to New Delhi’s commitment to reduce purchases of Russian oil.
INDIA, OIL, refineries, RUSSIA
Kernel, one of Ukraine’s largest agricultural holdings, has discussed new opportunities for development in the EU market and agreed on prospects for deepening its partnership with Spanish sunflower and olive oil supplier Aceites Abril, the agricultural holding’s press service reported on Facebook.
It is noted that the topic of the meeting in Orense (Spain) was the expansion of vegetable oil supplies to Europe and the adaptation of logistics. The parties discussed the range, potential volumes, and practical solutions to ensure the stability and predictability of exports.
“We talked about specific things: logistics, supply flexibility, and opportunities to expand the range for the EU. It is important for us to build predictable, long-term models of cooperation. We continue to develop partnerships in the EU, focusing on supply stability, effective commercial solutions, and long-term mutually beneficial cooperation,” said Andriy Paladiy, director of oil and protein trading at the agricultural holding, whose words are quoted in the report.
Founded in 1962, Spanish company Aceites Abril S.A. is one of Spain’s leading family-owned vegetable oil producers. It specializes in the production of Extra Virgin and Virgin olive oil, as well as sunflower, soybean, and grape seed oil. The company owns a factory in the industrial zone of San Sibao das Vinhas and its own logistics terminal in the port of Vigo, which exports products to more than 60 countries around the world. The company is consistently among the ten largest players in the industry in Spain.
Before the war, the Kernel agricultural holding company ranked first in the world in sunflower oil production (about 7% of global production) and exports (about 12%). It is one of the largest producers and sellers of bottled oil in Ukraine. It is also involved in the cultivation and sale of agricultural products.
