According to Serbian Economist, the International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies reports that global instability is intensifying amid the war in Ukraine and strategic uncertainty
The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES, Ljubljana, Slovenia) has published an analysis addressing the growing global disorder and the collapse of former strategic benchmarks against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and general geopolitical turbulence.
The author of the study, IFIMES Advisory Board member and President-Commissioner of Glendale Partners, Dr. J. Scott Yanger, notes that as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, the international system is increasingly characterized by instability, rising conflict, and a decline in the predictability of decisions by key global players.
The article emphasizes that the protracted war in Ukraine, the crisis in the Middle East, tensions surrounding Iran, as well as increasing impulsiveness and lack of coordination in global politics are creating a new environment of strategic uncertainty. According to the author, traditional mechanisms of international deterrence and coordination are increasingly failing, and leading states are acting in an increasingly unsystematic manner.
The analysis pays particular attention to the impact of these processes on the global economy and energy security. In particular, potential disruptions in strategic transport corridors—including in the Strait of Hormuz—are cited as key risks, which could put pressure on global markets and heighten nervousness in the global economy.
IFIMES believes that the further course of events will depend on the ability of international actors to prevent the escalation of existing conflicts and to move from reactive measures to a more sustainable system of political and economic crisis management.
As noted in the publication, the current phase of global politics increasingly demands not only rapid diplomatic solutions but also a rethinking of the entire architecture of international security, which in recent years has shown signs of systemic weakening.
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“Nova Poshta,” Ukraine’s leading express delivery service, has invested over 1 billion UAH in security since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, an investment that has helped save 951 lives, according to the company’s CEO, Yevhen Tafiychuk.
“War has long since become the norm. That’s why we aren’t waiting; we’re investing in security now,” he said at the NOVA Summit, which took place in Kyiv this week, according to a correspondent for Interfax-Ukraine.
According to data provided by Tafiychuk, since the start of the full-scale invasion, there have been 72,620 air raid alerts; 12 logistics hubs and 28 company branches have been destroyed, and another 16 hubs and 152 branches have been damaged.
For safety reasons, Nova Poshta has built 1,244 protective structures of various types at its facilities to ensure the safety of employees and customers, including 779 metal shelters, 438 reinforced concrete shelters, and 27 underground shelters.
“The strategy is very simple—we need to ensure continuous movement, because if you’re moving, it’s very difficult to hit you. To achieve this, we design our logistics so that a package is practically never stationary,” the CEO noted.
According to him, to ensure customer safety, the company constantly monitors the situation at its facilities with the help of an AI (artificial intelligence) agent.
“We know where and how many customers are currently in our service areas. And if this number exceeds our standards, we intervene immediately: we immediately reinforce our operational team, strategically develop the region, install parcel lockers, and open mobile branches,” explained Tafiychuk.
He added that in the event of damage or strikes, there is a “Plan B” for the rapid deployment of a mobile branch, which ensures service stability. He clarified that currently, Nova Poshta has 43 mobile branches and 16 backup locations in the frontline zone for branches, and a mobile depot can be organized within eight days.
In addition, the executive added, the company has five backup depots in Dnipro, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Odesa.
Tafiychuk also emphasized that security begins with threat detection, which is why Nova Poshta has established a control center that operates around the clock and continuously monitors the situation both in the air and on the ground.
“Through our system of acoustic vibration sensors, we are aware of absolutely everything happening in the air. We know how many drones and missiles there are, where they’re coming from, and where they’re heading. If we know, we can respond. And that’s what we do through our alert and response system,” the CEO said.
According to him, this is a three-tiered system. The first tier is visual, via monitors. The second is auditory: “Nova Poshta” has more than 350 sound systems that help inform employees and customers promptly and quickly. The third layer is informational: more than 70 Telegram channels and over 100 groups on Signal, so every division, branch, and terminal has its own channel where it receives security updates specific to its unit.
“It’s important to be confident that security protocols are actually being followed and can be followed. Our AI agent helps us with this; after every incident, it analyzes the situation, identifies who failed to comply, and we are constantly making changes and improving,“ noted Tafiychuk.
”Nova Poshta” currently has 51,500 service points in Ukraine, including 15,900 branches and 36,500 parcel terminals. In 2025, the company increased its revenue by 21% compared to 2024—to more than 54 billion UAH—and its profit amounted to 2.6 billion UAH, compared to 2.5 billion UAH the previous year. The number of parcels and shipments delivered in 2025 grew by 7.4%—from 486 million to 522 million, including international shipments—by 52.6%, from 19 million to 29 million.
At the end of January 2026, a working group under the Finnish Ministry of Defense proposed changing the mechanism for expropriating (compulsory purchase) real estate for national security purposes and transferring the authority to issue permits for such expropriation exclusively to the Ministry of Defense. The government press release notes that the current procedure has been difficult to apply, as permits are formally the responsibility of different agencies.
The working group’s proposals include expanding the possibilities for rapid response in urgent cases, including earlier introduction of a ban on actions with the property, temporary takeover of real estate, as well as unification of the approach to compensation for expropriation and planning of financing for such procedures in the budget.
The context for such steps remains the Finnish authorities’ concerns about the risks of “hostile influence” through real estate transactions. Previously, the government and the Ministry of Defense had consistently tightened the rules for buyers from countries outside the EU and the EEA, and also promoted restrictions that were in fact primarily aimed at Russian citizens. In April 2025, the Finnish parliament approved a law restricting the purchase of real estate by citizens of countries waging “aggressive war,” which was publicly interpreted as a ban on Russians who are not permanent residents.
Defense Minister Antti Hykkänen previously stated that Finland had made “too naive decisions” on real estate control in the 2000s and was now “systematically correcting the identified problems.”
Thus, at the moment, we are not talking about a declared campaign of “mass seizure” of property from citizens of all countries outside the EU, but about strengthening the state’s legal instruments to intervene in cases where specific real estate objects are considered a potential threat to national security, as well as continuing the policy of restricting new transactions for certain categories of foreign buyers.
The document on security guarantees from the US is 100% ready, and Ukraine is waiting for its partners to confirm the date and place of signing, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
“For us, a security guarantee is, first and foremost, a bilateral security guarantee from the United States of America. The document is 100% ready, we are waiting for our partners to be ready to provide a venue for us to sign it, and then the document will go for ratification in the US Congress and the Ukrainian parliament,” Zelensky said during a press conference in Vilnius on Sunday.
On December 23, Zelensky announced that the agreement on security guarantees from the US was ready for signing, and that the date and place of signing depended on US President Donald Trump.
“It’s up to him. We are ready to sign these documents, which are so important to us. I emphasize once again that we are confident that these are historic documents,” Zelensky said during a conversation with journalists.
The US has proposed a meeting between the national security advisors (NSA) of Ukraine, the US, and Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, expressing cautious optimism about the prospects for such a meeting.
“As for Umerov (Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov, who is in the US, where he held talks with American and European partners on ending the war), he called me and said that America is now proposing a trilateral meeting of the NSA – America, Ukraine, Russia,” Zelensky said in comments to reporters on Saturday.
The president noted that he is not sure that this meeting will bring anything new, but pointed out that a similar meeting in Turkey resulted in the return of captured military personnel and civilians, so it is worth holding such meetings.
“I believe that this is not everything we wanted, but it is very important. I am very glad that we had exchanges. Our people, our military personnel, especially prisoners, have returned home. And civilians too. And that is why such steps must be taken. And if there can now be a meeting that will unblock the exchanges, or if the result of the trilateral NSA meeting could be an agreement on a trilateral meeting of leaders, and I have said this many times, there are complex issues that must be resolved by the leaders of the states. Therefore, if the results are exchanges or some other agreements, I cannot be against it, we will then support the proposal of the United States of America. Let’s see how it goes,” Zelensky said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he is asking the US and Europe to ensure security for the elections, after which Ukraine will be ready to hold them in the next 60-90 days.
“Not only that, I am now asking, and I am stating this openly, for the US to help me, possibly together with European colleagues, to ensure security for the elections. Then, in the next 60-90 days, Ukraine will be ready to hold elections. I personally have the will and readiness to do so,” Zelensky told reporters on Tuesday.
At the same time, the president noted that the issue of elections in Ukraine depends primarily on Ukrainians, not on the people of other countries.
He stressed that he is ready for the elections, but explained that security and a legislative basis for their legitimacy are necessary for the elections to be held.
“Further, since this is how things have turned out, I ask that the deputies of our faction, in principle, our parliamentarians, prepare legislative proposals on the possibility of changing the legislative framework and the law on elections during martial law,” Zelensky added.
According to him, he is waiting for proposals from partners and deputies and is ready to go to the polls.
