According to Experts.news, Ukraine could account for about 31.3% of global sunflower oil exports in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to calculations by Open4Business based on the September forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, published on September 11, 2026, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports are projected to reach 5 million metric tons, while global exports are expected to total 15.968 million metric tons.
Thus, nearly one in every three metric tons of sunflower oil supplied to the global market may be of Ukrainian origin.
In the previous 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine exported approximately 4.036 million metric tons of sunflower oil out of total global exports of about 13.51 million metric tons. At that time, Ukraine’s share was about 29.9%. In the new season, this figure may increase by approximately 1.4 percentage points.
The USDA expects Ukraine to remain the world’s second-largest exporter of sunflower oil after Russia. Russian shipments are projected at 5.1 million metric tons, accounting for approximately 31.9% of global exports.
Together, Ukraine and Russia could supply about 10.1 million metric tons to foreign markets, or more than 63% of total global sunflower oil exports.
Argentina will remain the third-largest exporter, with projected shipments of about 2.05 million metric tons, accounting for approximately 12.8% of global trade. Turkey is expected to export about 1.1 million metric tons, and the European Union—about 850,000 metric tons.
The growth in Ukrainian exports will be driven by a recovery in the sunflower harvest and increased capacity utilization at processing plants. The USDA forecasts sunflower seed production in Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year at 13 million metric tons, compared to 10.7 million metric tons in the previous season.
Sunflower oil production, according to the agency’s estimates, will increase to 5.418 million metric tons from 4.515 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, or by approximately 20%.
At the same time, domestic consumption of sunflower oil in Ukraine is expected to reach about 470,000 metric tons, so the bulk of the additional production will be directed toward exports.
Overall, the USDA forecasts global sunflower oil exports to grow by approximately 18%—from 13.51 million metric tons in the previous season to 15.968 million metric tons in the 2026/27 marketing year.
The increase in supply will largely be driven by a recovery in production in the Black Sea region, primarily in Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, imports are expected to rise from the largest consumers of vegetable oils, notably India and China.
Ukraine traditionally remains one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of sunflower oil. A distinctive feature of the Ukrainian industry is the high proportion of domestic seed processing, which means that exports consist primarily of higher-value-added products—oil and meal—rather than raw materials.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, September 11, 2026: official USDA report.
Sunflower seed production in Ukraine could rise to 13 million metric tons in the 2026/27 marketing year after falling to 10.7 million metric tons in the previous season, according to a forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Thus, the expected yield increase is about 21.5%. The figure effectively returns to the level of the 2024/25 marketing year, when Ukraine also harvested about 13 million metric tons of sunflowers.
According to the USDA forecast, Ukraine will retain its second place among the world’s largest sunflower producers, behind Russia.
Production in Russia in the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to reach 21 million metric tons, in Ukraine—13 million metric tons, in the EU—9.725 million metric tons, in Argentina—8 million metric tons, and in Turkey—1.825 million metric tons. The global sunflower crop could reach 63.65 million metric tons, compared to 55.17 million metric tons in the previous season.
The USDA attributes the recovery of the global sunflower market to an increase in planted acreage following two seasons of relatively low yields in the Black Sea region. Higher harvests in Ukraine and Russia are expected to be one of the main drivers of growth in global sunflower oil trade.
The USDA estimates domestic consumption of sunflower seeds in Ukraine at 12.775 million metric tons, indicating that the processing industry remains operating at high capacity.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, September 2026.
According to Experts.news, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year at 5 million metric tons, which is nearly 24% higher than the previous season’s figure of 4.036 million metric tons.
According to the USDA’s September report, *Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade*, sunflower oil production in Ukraine is expected to reach 5.418 million metric tons, up from 4.515 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year—an increase of approximately 20%.
At the same time, domestic consumption of sunflower oil is projected to remain relatively stable—470,000 metric tons compared to 455,000 metric tons in the previous season. The USDA estimates ending stocks at 213,000 metric tons, compared to 265,000 metric tons. Thus, most of the increase in production is likely to be directed toward export markets.
Ukraine will remain one of the world’s two largest exporters of sunflower oil. The USDA forecasts exports from Russia at 5.1 million metric tons, Ukraine at 5 million metric tons, Argentina at 2.05 million metric tons, Turkey at 1.1 million metric tons, and the EU at 850,000 metric tons.
The USDA estimates total global sunflower oil exports at 15.968 million metric tons, compared to 13.51 million metric tons in the previous season.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, September 11, 2026.
In September, the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for feed grain production in Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year by 0.5 million metric tons—to 39.09 million metric tons, according to data from the WASDE report.
The USDA includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains in this category. Since the corn production forecast for Ukraine remained unchanged at 31.8 million metric tons, production of other feed grains is estimated at approximately 7.29 million metric tons, compared with about 6.79 million metric tons in the August forecast.
The USDA explicitly states that in September it raised its estimate for barley production in Ukraine, as well as in Australia and Kazakhstan.
At the same time, the forecast for total feed grain exports from Ukraine has been lowered from 24.27 million metric tons to 23.77 million metric tons. Since corn exports are still estimated at 22 million metric tons, other feed grains account for about 1.77 million metric tons of exports, which is 0.5 million metric tons less than the August estimate.
Total domestic consumption of feed grains in Ukraine has been raised from 11.24 million metric tons to 11.34 million metric tons, while the forecast for ending stocks has been raised from 7.13 million metric tons to 8.63 million metric tons.
This figure of 8.63 million metric tons includes corn, for which the USDA estimates ending stocks at 5.46 million metric tons. Consequently, the remaining feed crops account for approximately 3.17 million metric tons of ending stocks.
The increase in production, coupled with a downward revision of the export forecast, suggests that grain supply in Ukraine’s domestic market is likely to rise in the 2026/27 marketing year.
Source: USDA WASDE-675, published on September 11, 2026: official USDA report
In its September forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for wheat production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year by 0.6 million metric tons compared to August—to 26 million metric tons—but at the same time lowered its forecast for Ukrainian exports by 1 million metric tons—to 12.5 million metric tons.
According to the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, published by the USDA on September 11, 2026, the upward revision of the harvest forecast is due to record-high yields of Ukrainian wheat as the harvest nears completion. In August, the agency had estimated production at 25.4 million metric tons.
The forecast for domestic consumption of Ukrainian wheat has been raised from 9.2 million metric tons to 9.5 million metric tons, including feed consumption—from 4.2 million metric tons to 4.5 million metric tons.
At the same time, the USDA significantly raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending wheat stocks—from 4.8 million metric tons in the August forecast to 6.1 million metric tons in September. Imports are expected to total 0.1 million metric tons.
Thus, despite the improved harvest estimate, the additional production is not translating into a corresponding increase in exports and is largely contributing to a buildup in domestic stocks.
The USDA attributes the downward revision of Ukraine’s export estimate—as well as Russia’s—to slow shipment rates in August and logistical challenges in the Black Sea region due to the ongoing war.
Ukraine remains one of the largest suppliers of wheat to the global market. According to the USDA forecast, global wheat trade in the 2026/27 marketing year will total approximately 211.8 million metric tons.
Source: USDA WASDE-675 report dated September 11, 2026: USDA WASDE September 2026
Global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year will total 822.43 million metric tons, which is 3.13 million metric tons higher than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August forecast, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the September USDA report, one of the main factors behind the revision was an improvement in the crop outlook in Australia. The forecast for the country was raised by 3 million tonnes at once — from 28 million tonnes to 31 million tonnes thanks to favorable weather conditions.
For Canada, the production forecast was increased by 1 million tonnes — to 36 million tonnes, and for Ukraine — by 0.6 million tonnes, to 26 million tonnes. At the same time, the forecast for Kazakhstan was reduced by 1 million tonnes — to 15 million tonnes, and for Russia — by 0.5 million tonnes, to 88 million tonnes.
Despite the increase in production, the forecast for global wheat trade was reduced by approximately 0.9 million tonnes — to 211.77 million tonnes.
USDA cut its estimates for Russia’s exports from 46 million tonnes to 43 million tonnes, Ukraine’s — from 13.5 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes, as well as Kazakhstan’s. The decline is partially offset by increased exports from Australia, Canada and Argentina.
The U.S. agency explained the deterioration in the outlook for Russian and Ukrainian exports by weak August shipments amid the fact that the war in the Black Sea region is complicating logistics.
Global wheat consumption is forecast at 826.75 million tonnes, while ending stocks were increased by approximately 3 million tonnes — to 276.29 million tonnes. The main increase in stocks is expected in Russia, Australia and Ukraine.
Primary source — USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates dated September 11, 2026: WASDE-675, September 2026
