The analytical agency UkrAgroConsult predicts a wheat harvest of 25.9 million tonnes for 2020 with exports of 17.5 million tonnes and a corn harvest of 36 million tonnes with exports of 29 million tonnes.
“The assessment of export potential for wheat is quite consolidated – 17.5 million tonnes, this figure is fixed in a memorandum, an appendix to which has been recently signed. In any case, exports will be about 3 million tonnes lower than last year,” the UkrAgroConsult export for the grain market, Yelyzaveta Malyshko, said during the Black Sea Grain & Oil Trade 2020 international conference in Kyiv.
According to her, the start of the wheat export season was impressive, for example, from July 1 to August 28, some 4.16 million tonnes of wheat were exported, which is the highest figure for this period in the previous years.
“Now active export contributes to the fact that domestic prices for wheat in September are about $ 30 higher than last year and the demand remains. Expectations in this regard are quite optimistic. Forwards for December are now showing $ 225, but we cannot exclude autumn price deflection after the arrival of Canadian and then Australian wheat crop,” the expert said.
UkrAgroConsult’s estimate of the corn harvest for this year is 36 million tonnes.
The expert noted price expectations for corn are optimistic, however, a decrease in prices during the period of active harvesting cannot be ruled out.
Ukraine exported more than 20.5 million tonnes of wheat and 30.3 million tonnes of corn in the 2019/2020 agricultural year (July-June), President of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) Mykola Horbachev has said. “The 2019-2020 grain season was successful. We produced a record number of grains and oilseeds. The grain and oilseeds harvest was a little over 98 million tonnes, which is an absolute record for Ukraine. A record amount of wheat was grown – more than 28 million tonnes. Wheat exports amounted to more than 20 million tonnes. Corn export exceeded all expectations. We exported more than 30 million tonnes. This year was successful,” he said at a press conference in Kyiv on Thursday.
The head of the UGA predicted that by 2026 Ukraine will produce 113 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds a year and export 70 million tonnes.
According to the UGA, export of grain and oilseeds in the 2020/21 season will be some 58.8 million tonnes.
The dynamics of wheat exports is within the “safe” corridor agreed in the memorandum, in particular, as of April 6 wheat exports amounted to 17.9 million tonnes, the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine has reported.
According to the annex to the memorandum between the Economy Ministry and the market participants signed on March 30, the maximum volume of wheat exports in the current marketing season (MY, July-June) was set at 20.2 million tonnes.
“Thus, during April-June 2020 some 2.3 million tonnes remain available for export,” the ministry said on its website.
The ministry noted that the pace of wheat supplies in April slowed down. The average daily shipment of wheat supplies in April was 14,000 tonnes, while in March it was 44,000 tonnes.
According to the ministry, in the 2018/2019 MY some 28.3 million tonnes were produced, domestic consumption was 8.2 million tonnes, ending stock stood at 1.7 million tonnes.
Ukraine as of July 22 had fully used quotas for duty-free exports of agricultural products to the EU on nine groups of goods, including honey, sugar, cereals and flour, processed starch, processed tomatoes, grape and apple juice, wheat, corn, and butter. According to a press release from the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC), the pace of quota use and revival of trade with the EU is noticeably accelerating, as on the same date last year seven quotas for duty-free exports from Ukraine to the EU were used.
“Potentially, quotas for barley (79% are now used), poultry (75%), malt and wheat gluten (58%), and starch (53%) will be used by the end of the year,” the association noted.
The UAC said additional quotas for eight groups of goods come in force from October 2017 for a period of three years: for honey, flour and cereals, processed tomatoes, grape and apple juice, oats, corn, wheat, and barley. As of July 22, five of the additional quotas were used: for honey, cereals, juice, wheat, and corn.
Wheat production in Ukraine in 2019 will remain virtually unchanged, while exports will increase by 2 million tonnes, to 18 million tonnes, President of the Ukrainian Grain Association Mykola Horbachev has said. “Next year, wheat production will be at the same level – perhaps 1 million tonnes more, everything depends on weather. We expect more favorable conditions for yields, so we expect exports to reach 18 million tonnes this year 16 million tonnes,” he said.
According to him, the harvest and export of other grain crops next year will be almost at the level of this year, except for corn: this year Ukraine has collected a record high harvest of 35 million tonnes of corn due to high yields because of weather conditions, while with normal yields next year production will be 27 million tonnes.
The association president noted that the main importers of Ukrainian grain are the EU countries (in particular, Spain), North Africa and Asia. At the same time, in his opinion, with the increase in production, an additional volume of grain will go to Asia, where there is a large population growth (in particular, to China, Indonesia and India), whereas a large expansion on the European continent should not be expected.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food and grain traders have signed a memorandum to fix forecasted volume of wheat exports in the 2018/2019 marketing year (MY, July-June) at 16 million tonnes against 16.5 million tonnes in the previous MY.
The memorandum was signed on Friday, August 10, an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent said.
According to the appendix to the memorandum, exports of food wheat, which can be exported this MY, is determined at 8 million tonnes, while coarse wheat exports were fixed at 8 million tonnes.
Such document has traditionally been signed since 2011 between the Ministry and the market operators at the beginning of the season.
First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Maksym Martyniuk said during the signing ceremony that the figures could be adjusted taking into account the quality and volume of wheat.
As reported, the ministry raised its forecast for wheat harvest by one million tonnes, to 24 million tonnes, including 13 million tonnes of food wheat. According to the ministry’s preliminary estimates, the ratio of food/coarse wheat in 2018 will be 55/45. The domestic market demand for food wheat is estimated at 4.5 -5 million tonnes.
Ukraine in 2017/2018 MY exported 39.4 million tonnes of grain, including 17.14 million tonnes of wheat.