This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of April 1, 2025. The analysis is based on the latest data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the United Nations. Maksym Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
The first quarter of 2025 was a period of slow but positive economic movement for Ukraine. According to updated estimates by the National Bank of Ukraine, the country’s real GDP grew by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating a gradual stabilization after an unstable start to the year. This growth is not high by international standards, but in the context of a full-scale war, constant threats to infrastructure and logistics, and limited access to capital, this result is seen as a positive sign.
“Half a percent GDP growth in the first quarter is more an indicator of the system’s viability than a sign of development. The domestic market has begun to revive, especially in consumption, logistics, and certain technology sectors. But so far, this is mainly growth “in place” — without investment momentum, without exports, without long-term resources,” explains Maxim Urakin.
Inflation remains one of the main challenges. At the end of March 2025, the annual inflation rate was around 12.6%, which is almost unchanged from February but shows a gradual slowdown. The NBU points to the impact of seasonal declines in food prices, currency stabilization, and prudent monetary policy as key factors restraining price growth.
“The main thing is to maintain a balance between fighting inflation and preventing a slowdown in economic activity. The National Bank’s monetary policy in the first quarter was quite balanced: on the one hand, it kept the key rate unchanged, and on the other, it provided soft intervention support for the hryvnia. But we are still far from exiting the inflation risk zone,” the expert emphasizes.
The state of foreign trade, on the contrary, points to deepening structural problems. According to preliminary estimates by the Center for Economic Strategy, the foreign trade deficit reached $3.6 billion in April, as a result of a significant excess of imports ($6.3 billion) over exports ($3.1 billion). According to analysts, the cumulative trade deficit for the first quarter exceeded that of the same period in 2024, despite activity in the agricultural sector and services.
“The worst thing is that this deficit is not situational, but structural. Imports of energy, equipment, chemical products, and transport remain dominant, while exports are mostly limited to raw materials. This threatens currency stability in the event of a cessation of international financial support,” comments the founder of Experts Club.
Against the backdrop of a growing trade gap, the level of international reserves remains a positive sign. According to the NBU, as of April 2025, reserves stood at around $42 billion, a historic high for Ukraine. This growth was made possible by further tranches of financial assistance from the European Union, the US, and the IMF, as well as successful currency operations by the National Bank on the interbank market.
“Reserves of over $40 billion are not just an indicator, they are a safety net for a country living in a state of constant risk. But we should not be tempted by this: it is a resource of trust that must be transformed into economic recovery, otherwise we will lose it again, as we have done in the past,” warns Maksym Urakin.
However, the debt burden remains high. According to the latest estimates, Ukraine’s total public and publicly guaranteed debt at the beginning of April 2025 was about $147.2 billion, or approximately 94% of GDP, of which more than $100 billion is external borrowing. This highlights the country’s dependence on external assistance and international financing, in particular from the IMF, the EU, and the World Bank.
Global economy
Global economic indicators at the beginning of April 2025 point to a slowdown in growth, accompanied by continued inflationary pressures, particularly due to new trade risks and geopolitical instability. According to the IMF, global growth has accelerated its decline to 2.8% in 2025, one of the lowest levels in decades . Inflation is gradually declining in most regions, but remains above target, especially in developing countries .
Macroeconomic uncertainty has intensified amid trade protectionism, rising energy prices, and geopolitical challenges, making forecasting much more difficult. Central banks that have not yet tightened policy are in wait-and-see mode, and investors are becoming more cautious. Morgan Stanley and S&P Global forecasts point to a further slowdown in global GDP to 2.2–2.9% in 2025, which is weighing on investor confidence.
According to the BEA, US GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, the first decline since 2022. This was mainly due to a sharp increase in imports (pre-purchases ahead of possible tariffs) and a reduction in government spending. However, final domestic demand remained relatively stable (+3%). Inflation in March/April was approximately 2.3–2.6% (PCE), in line with the regulator’s expectations; the Fed is keeping rates at 5.25–5.5% pending signs of stabilization.
According to official data, China’s GDP grew by +5.4% y/y in Q1 2025, in line with the government’s target of around 5%. However, fiscal and monetary constraints, particularly in the real estate sector, are slowing down growth. By May, budget revenues had fallen by 0.3% y/y, indicating a slowdown in economic activity. Stimulus measures are being introduced in response, but their effect is still uncertain.
The European Commission forecasts annual GDP growth of +1.1% for the EU and +0.9% for the eurozone, with a marked improvement in the first quarter (+0.6% q/q), the highest figure since 2022. Inflation in March/April was below 2%, gradually approaching the target level.
According to the ONS, in the first quarter of 2025, the UK showed GDP growth of +0.7% q/q, making it the leader among the G7. In annual terms, growth was approximately +1%. Inflation in April was around 3.4%, prompting the Bank of England to remain cautious in lowering rates (from 5.25% to 4.5%). However, exceeding the inflation target is holding back the economy’s recovery.
In the first quarter, Turkey showed positive growth of around +2.3% q/q, or ≈+3.0% y/y. Inflationary pressures remain extremely high at ≈38–39% in March/April, despite measures taken by the central bank.
The Indian economy continues to show one of the highest growth rates among major economies: in the first quarter of 2025, the rate was +7.4% y/y, with inflation under control: CPI — ~3.2% in April. The forecast for the 2024–25 financial year is +6.3–6.5%.
In the first quarter, Brazil managed to achieve GDP growth of +1.3% q/q (≈+3.5% y/y), which is the best result in the last two years. However, inflation rose to 5.48% in April, the highest level since February 2023, and is a source of serious concern.
“The world at the beginning of the second quarter shows promise, but at the same time high instability. The US has fallen into recession, but domestic demand is still holding up. Europe is slowly emerging from the crisis, and the UK is showing resilience. China is stable in terms of growth but weak in consumption. India is a model of dynamism and innovation. Turkey is on the brink of an inflationary crisis. Brazil is moving forward but is at risk due to rising prices. Ukraine must now decide whether to use the flow of imported resources solely to offset the deficit or turn it into an opportunity for a technological and industrial breakthrough,” said Maxim Urakin.
Conclusion
At the beginning of the second quarter of 2025, Ukraine’s economy is in a phase of sustained equilibrium. Modest growth, controlled inflation, and record reserves are the basic factors of stability. However, a deep trade deficit, debt burden, and lack of investment drivers remain key risks for the medium term.
The global economic picture remains mixed, with clear geographical imbalances. Ukraine is showing resilience, maintaining growth and record reserves, while facing challenges in foreign trade. Global markets, from the US to India, are shaping new conditions for strategic solutions to these challenges.
A more detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Economic Monitoring.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maxim Urakin
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1085984.html
The European Central Bank (ECB) considers the current level of key interest rates to be justified and remains committed to the goal of maintaining inflation in the euro area at 2% in the long term, ECB President Christine Lagarde said.
“Our aspiration, commitment and duty is to ensure price stability, and this corresponds to inflation in the region of 2%,” she said in an interview with the German newspaper ARD. “We have succeeded, inflation is already at 2%, and we will continue to work in this direction.
“We will do everything necessary to ensure that inflation remains at this level,” Lagarde added. “Uncertainty is high, we are surrounded by unpredictability, but there is confidence and stability in terms of prices.
Meanwhile, François Villeroy de Galo, Governor of the Bank of France and member of the ECB Governing Council, warned that the 14% strengthening of the euro since the beginning of the year poses a risk of too low inflation.
In his opinion, a 10% rise in the euro reduces inflation by 0.2 percentage points over the next three years.
“This may increase the risks that inflation will be below our target, and we cannot ignore this,” de Galo said.
Earlier, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos noted that the rise of the euro/dollar pair above $1.2 could complicate the central bank’s task of achieving the target inflation rate.
The ECB has cut rates eight times over the past year, and now the key deposit rate is 2%. Analysts and market participants generally expect that the regulator will not change rates at the July meeting in order to assess the impact of the measures already taken on the eurozone economy.
According to a column by Caroline de Gruyter published on EUobserver, circles close to Donald Trump’s administration are preparing a strategy to change regimes in EU countries through active support for far-right movements in Europe.
The Geneva-based analyst claims that Washington intends to use parties such as the AfD in Germany, PiS in Poland, and Patriots for Europe to weaken Brussels’ position and “turn Europe into a vassal of the US.” According to EUobserver sources, the White House is already providing “geopolitical and financial support” to these movements.
EUobserver is a European publication focusing on EU politics. The original article is a column by Karolina de Grutter.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revoked the license of FC “Fraser” (Kyiv) to operate as a financial company providing funds and bank metals on credit and factoring, according to the NBU website. This decision was made by the Committee for Supervision and Regulation of Non-Bank Financial Services Markets on July 7, 2025.
According to information, in June of this year, the NBU took measures to conduct a scheduled inspection of the aforementioned financial company. When attempting to carry out the inspection, it was established that Frazier FC was not located at the address specified in the Unified State Register of Legal Entities, Individual Entrepreneurs, and Public Organizations. This made it impossible to conduct the inspection and is grounds for revoking the financial company’s license.
The information emphasizes that, as of July 8, 2025, FC “Fraser” is not authorized to provide financial services (in particular, to conclude new contracts, extend the term of existing contracts, and increase the amount of obligations under them).
FC “Fraser” was registered in March 2018. Its authorized capital is UAH 6.5 million.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the rules for transporting animals on intercity and international buses developed by the Ministry of Community and Territorial Development in cooperation with UAnimals. Among the mandatory requirements for all domestic animals is the presence of a veterinary document.
According to the Ministry of Development’s website, the relevant decision was approved by the government at a meeting on July 7, specifically regarding changes to Cabinet of Ministers Resolution No. 176 on bus transportation rules.
It is noted that animals weighing up to 10 kg – dogs, cats, ornamental birds, rodents – must be transported in special containers, cages, or bags with absorbent bottoms. Such animals may be held in the arms, under the seat, or in a separate place, provided that a ticket is purchased at the adult passenger fare.
In addition, medium and large dogs weighing between 10 and 45 kg may only be transported with a muzzle and on a leash. Passengers are required to purchase all adjacent seats in the same row and place the animal on the floor on a special mat. It is prohibited to use a seat to accommodate an animal. No more than one pet may be transported in the cabin at a time, or two if accompanied by one person.
Dogs weighing more than 45 kg may only be transported in accordance with the carrier’s specific conditions in specially equipped transport.
The rules also state that guide dogs accompanying persons with disabilities are transported free of charge, without purchasing a seat, wearing a muzzle and on a short leash, next to the person they are accompanying.
“The new rules are a step towards safer, more predictable, and more humane transport. They take into account the needs of passengers, animals, and market operators. And importantly, this is another element of harmonization of Ukrainian norms with European standards,” added Deputy Minister of Community and Territorial Development Serhiy Derkach.
The National Bank of Ukraine on July 7, 2025 applied to JSC “IC ”INGO” (Kiev) a measure of influence in the form of imposing a fine in the amount of UAH 1.819 million for violation of legislation on the protection of the rights of consumers of financial services, reported on the website of the NBU.
According to the information, during the inspection of the company were found violations of legislation on the protection of the rights of consumers of financial services defined by the Civil Code of Ukraine, the laws “On electronic commerce”, “On insurance”, “On financial services and financial companies”, as well as the provisions of the NBU on the peculiarities of the conclusion of insurance contracts with consumers and on the authorization of financial service providers and the conditions of their activities in the provision of financial services.
IC INGO is obliged to pay the fine within one month from the date of entry into force of this decision.
JSC Insurance Company INGO has been providing insurance services for 30 years. Since 2017, the main shareholder is the Ukrainian business group DCH.
