The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its currency sales on the interbank market by $53 million, or 8.4%, to $585.8 million last week, with almost no currency purchases, according to statistics on the regulator’s website. As noted by the NBU, it purchased $0.50 million worth of currency for the first time in two weeks.
Data published by the regulator during this period show that the balance was negative throughout last week, fluctuating from $11.3 million on Monday to $11.6 million on Tuesday, $13.2 million on Wednesday, and $8.5 million on Thursday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate fluctuated from 41.4018 UAH/$1 at the beginning of the week, on Wednesday the hryvnia devalued to 41.5566/$1, and by the end of the week the rate was 41.4466 UAH/$1.
On the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate remained virtually unchanged at the end of the week: the buying rate was approximately 41.40 UAH/$1, and the selling rate was around 41.45 UAH/$1.
“The end of May 2025 is characterized by moderate stability in Ukraine’s currency market in the absence of shock changes, despite external turbulence and a complex geopolitical background. The national currency maintains a controlled exchange rate against the US dollar, while the euro/hryvnia pair continues to show increased volatility, which is associated with both global trends and internal structural shifts in the currency preferences of businesses and the population,” experts from KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market, described the situation.
In their opinion, in the medium term of 2-4 months, the dollar-hryvnia exchange rate will return to the range of 41.80-42.50 UAH/USD, provided that imports grow, domestic inflation rises, or significant signals regarding external financing are received.
In the long term, over 6+ months, KYT Group expects a likely movement towards 43.00-45.00 UAH/$1 or even higher.
The review is available at the link – https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1080324.html
Uzbekistan is preparing a law on alternative investment funds. This was announced by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on June 10 during the plenary session of the Tashkent International Investment Forum .
According to the head of state, alternative financing instruments are actively developing in the country, primarily venture capital.
“Last year, the valuation of two national start-ups, Uzum and TBC, exceeded $1 billion for the first time. We intend to significantly increase the number of such companies,” the president said.
In this regard, a draft law has been prepared that will allow the volume of venture capital and other forms of alternative investment to reach $1 billion over the next five years.
At the same time, structural changes will be introduced in the banking system, insurance, finance, and the capital market. In particular, the country plans to establish a Financial Stability Council, and specialized platforms aimed at developing financial technologies and cybersecurity will be launched at the Central Bank.
To stimulate the industry, three venture capital funds with a total capital of $50 million have already been created.
According to a study of the Central Asian venture market conducted by RISE Research in collaboration with KPMG, by the end of 2024, total venture capital investment in the region reached approximately $95 million, up 7% from the previous year.
Uzbekistan showed one of the highest growth rates in the region, increasing 2.7 times from $6.3 million to $17.5 million. The number of venture deals in the country also increased to 38 per year (compared to 34 in 2023 and 24 in 2022). The average investment amount more than doubled, from $204,000 to $460,000.
In terms of the number of startups (over 400) and active investors (over 25), Uzbekistan ranks second in Central Asia, behind only Kazakhstan, which has about 1,000 startups and over 50 investors.
Spain remains one of the most popular countries in Europe for foreigners to buy property. However, as in other EU countries, ownership entails obligations, primarily tax obligations. Below is a brief and clear guide to property taxes in Spain for private individuals.
Main taxes on purchase
1. Property transfer tax (ITP)
– applies to the purchase of second-hand property
– the rate depends on the region: from 6% to 11% of the cadastral or market value (whichever is higher)
2. VAT (IVA) and stamp duty (AJD)
– when buying new property from a developer:
VAT – 10% (for ordinary housing) or 21% (for commercial property)
AJD – 0.5–1.5% depending on the region
Annual taxes for owners
1. IBI (Impuesto sobre Bienes Inmuebles) – property tax
– mandatory for all owners
– calculated based on the cadastral value (valor catastral)
– the rate is set by municipalities and ranges from 0.4% to 1.3%
– for example, with a cadastral value of €100,000, the tax can range from €400 to €1,300 per year
2. Tax on waste collection (Basura / Residuos Sólidos)
– essentially a garbage collection tax
– set by local authorities
– from €50 to €200 per year, depending on the size of the property and the region
3. Real estate income tax (IRNR)
– for non-residents who do not rent out their property
– taxes the estimated income from owning real estate (usually 1.1–2% of the cadastral value × 19% for the EU/EEA or 24% for other countries)
4. Tax on rental income
– if you rent out real estate, the income is taxed at the following rates:
19% – EU and EEA citizens (expenses can be deducted)
24% – other foreigners (expenses are not taken into account)
Other possible fees
Municipal improvement taxes (Contribuciones Especiales) — for the construction of roads, water supply, etc. near your property
Capital gains tax (Plusvalía Municipal) — when selling real estate, calculated as the increase in the cadastral value of the plot
The IBI tax is paid annually, the deadline depends on the specific municipality (usually from May to October). If you do not receive a notice by mail, this does not exempt you from paying the tax. It is recommended to activate your electronic taxpayer account or use a bank auto-debit. In case of late payment, a penalty may be charged, which can be significant.
Buying in Spain: the region matters
Each autonomous region of Spain has its own fiscal policy. For example:
in Andalusia, ITP can be 7%
in Catalonia — 10%
in Madrid and Valencia — benefits for young and large families
In recent years, Spain has been discussing reforms in the field of property taxation — in particular, a review of the cadastral value, as well as restrictions on renting accommodation to tourists in large cities. This may affect the amount of taxes in the future.
Spain offers an attractive real estate market, but every owner must take into account local tax obligations. Rates and rules depend on the status of the owner, the type of property, and the region. Before buying or renting a property, it is advisable to consult with a local lawyer or tax advisor.
Source: http://relocation.com.ua/property-taxes-in-spain-an-overview-from-relocation/
The Zaporizhstal steelworks in Zaporizhia has begun a series of major repairs to key energy equipment.
According to its annual capital investment program, Zaporizhstal will repair key units of the thermal power plant this year, allocating approximately 75 million hryvnias for this purpose.
“The thermal power plant is responsible for the production of three key types of energy resources – steam, blast air, and electricity – and supplies them to the plant’s divisions, ensuring the continuity of the production process at the sintering plant, blast furnace, rolling and other main and auxiliary shops. The overhaul will improve the reliability and uptime of both individual units and the entire energy complex of Zaporizhstal,” said Taras Shevchenko, acting CEO of the company.
It is specified that the plant will repair the power equipment in stages, as the work will be carried out while production continues, maintaining planned production volumes.
Zaporizhstal has already begun a large-scale overhaul of boiler unit No. 5, which is scheduled to be carried out every few years and will last about 100 days. Next in line is turbo compressor unit No. 7, with all planned work to be completed within 80 days. In the fall, major repairs will begin on turbine generator No. 1, which will last 45 days. Preparatory work is currently underway.
The major repairs will be carried out by the company’s own engineering service with the involvement of contractors Inventum Ukraine and Intel Energo.
The company notes that despite the difficult economic situation, Zaporizhstal is gradually increasing its capital investments in production during the war: in 2022, investments amounted to UAH 500 million, in 2023 – UAH 750 million, and in 2024 – UAH 938 million. The capital investment budget for 2025 is planned at UAH 1.1 billion.
Zaporizhstal is a joint venture of the Metinvest Group, whose main shareholders are System Capital Management (71.24%) and Smart Steel Limited (23.76%).
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of March 1, 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the United Nations. Maksym Urakin, Marketing and Development Director at Interfax-Ukraine, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
The beginning of 2025 for Ukraine was marked by the continuation of complex but controllable economic dynamics. Amid the ongoing war, uncertainty in external markets, and a growing trade deficit, the Ukrainian economy is demonstrating resilience and gradual adaptation. As Maxim Urakine notes, at the end of 2024, the Ukrainian economy maintained a positive trajectory, although growth rates were more modest than expected:
“Real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2024 is, on the one hand, a positive sign of recovery, but on the other hand, it signals that the structure of the economy remains vulnerable. This growth is not based on profound investment changes or technological breakthroughs, but rather is the result of adaptation to extraordinary conditions. We are dealing with an economy that is surviving but not developing in the full sense of the word,” said Maxim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
In January–February 2025, consumer inflation remained high. In annual terms, it stood at around 12.6%, remaining close to the level seen at the end of 2024. According to the NBU, price pressures are driven by seasonal factors, higher energy prices, and a weak hryvnia.
Commenting on this trend, Urakin notes that the current level of inflation is not catastrophic, but it does not allow for economic maneuvering. High consumer prices are not only a macroeconomic problem, but also a daily challenge for millions of households. The National Bank is forced to balance between the need to maintain the hryvnia and the impossibility of sharply tightening monetary policy due to the vulnerability of the economy.
The external economic situation at the beginning of 2025 revealed a serious imbalance. In January–February, Ukraine exported $6.29 billion worth of goods, 13% less than in the same period of 2024. Imports, on the other hand, rose to $11.3 billion, up 12.3% year-on-year. As a result, the foreign trade deficit reached $5.01 billion, increasing by more than 76%. The ratio of exports to imports, at only 56%, reveals the economy’s critical dependence on foreign goods and energy resources.
“This gap between exports and imports is not just a figure. It is a symptom of structural fatigue. We are too dependent on imports: this applies to fuel, equipment, and industrial components. And until we start investing seriously in local production and processing, this deficit will only grow. On the other hand, exports are currently sustained mainly by agricultural products. But this is not enough to ensure currency stability and financial autonomy,” emphasized the founder of Experts Club.
Despite trade difficulties, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $40.15 billion at the beginning of March 2025. Although this figure is 6.7% lower than in January, the main reasons for the decline were currency interventions by the NBU and servicing of public debt. The total amount of public and guaranteed debt at the end of February exceeded $147 billion, of which more than $100 billion was external debt.
Maksym Urakyn believes that the government currently remains capable of meeting its debt obligations, controlling the currency market, and pursuing a balanced macrofinancial policy. However, this achievement is fragile. Without further reforms and without the real sector getting back on track, these reserves could quickly melt away.
Global economy
According to the International Monetary Fund, global economic growth in 2024 was 3.1%, and the forecast for 2025 is 3.2%. However, these figures mask significant regional differences.
According to BEA estimates, the US economy contracted by 0.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, the first decline since early 2022. The main factor was rapid growth in imports amid fears of new tariffs, which significantly increased the trade surplus. Inflation, according to the latest data, stood at 2.3% (CPI) and 2.6% (core PCE) in April, the lowest levels in recent years. The Federal Reserve is keeping rates at 5.25–5.5%, waiting to see if things calm down before easing.
The IMF forecasts China’s GDP growth at 4.0% for 2025, although the official target is around 5%. The current low inflation indicates weak domestic demand and the need for structural reforms. In March, at the session of the National People’s Congress, the government announced plans to stimulate the economy through consumer support and reforms, but no clear impetus for the real estate market has yet been provided.
According to the EC’s spring forecast, GDP growth in the European Union will be 1.1% in 2025 and 0.9% in the eurozone. Official statistics for the first quarter showed growth of +0.6% compared to the previous quarter, the best result since 2022. Inflation in the eurozone continues to decline, standing at 1.9% year-on-year in May.
The British economy is showing signs of recovery: GDP grew by 0.7% in the first quarter and by 1.2% compared to a year earlier, with a slight increase of 0.2% in March. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that inflation will reach 3.2–3.5% in 2025, falling to the target of 2% only in 2027. The Bank of England has already lowered its base rate from 5.25% to 4.25% and is expected to take two more steps during the year.
At the end of the first quarter of 2025, Turkey’s economic growth is estimated at 2.3%, with annual growth of around 3.0%. Inflation fell to 38–39% in March but remains extremely high and continues to be a priority issue for the Turkish Central Bank.
The Indian economy is showing one of the highest growth rates: GDP in the first quarter of 2025 grew by 7.4% year-on-year, confirming that India remains one of the leaders among large countries. Inflation remains under control: in February, CPI was 3.6% and core CPI was 4.1%.
The Brazilian economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace: in March, activity was +3.5% y/y, and in the first quarter, +1.3% q/q, the highest figure in two years. BBVA and OECD forecasts point to a slowdown in growth to 1.6–2.1% in 2025. Inflation in March was 5.48%, the highest level since February 2023, raising concerns about the stability of economic policy.
“The global economy is showing a clear divide: the US is on the brink of recession due to imports and trade uncertainty, but inflation is falling. The EU is struggling with low growth and deflationary risks. The UK is trying to avoid stagnation, although inflationary risks remain. China is in a phase of structural decline and needs reforms. India is a striking example of rapid growth thanks to rural demand and industry. Turkey is once again on the brink of crisis due to inflation. Brazil is stable but vulnerable to inflationary pressures. Ukraine needs to choose a strategy against the backdrop of these global trends: either adapt or risk remaining on a marginal trajectory,” Maxim Urakin concludes.
Conclusion
The macroeconomic situation in Ukraine at the beginning of 2025 is one of cautious stability against a backdrop of growing external challenges. Moderate GDP growth, high inflation, worsening trade imbalances, and stable reserves all contribute to a complex but manageable landscape. Meanwhile, the global economy is showing mixed dynamics, opening up new opportunities for countries that are able to quickly adapt and modernize their economic models.
“For Ukraine, 2025 is a time of transition from mobilization to transformation. If we focus on industrial revival, digitalization, export-oriented clusters, and protection of domestic producers, then the country will be able to embark on a new trajectory of sustainable growth,” concludes Maxim Urakin.
A more detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Economic Monitoring.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maxim Urakin
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1080355.html
According to a new report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) entitled “The real fertility crisis,” global birth rates have reached an all-time low, confirming the global trend toward demographic decline.
Key findings of the study
The average fertility rate has fallen from 5 to approximately 2.2–2.3 children per woman since 1950.
In more than half of countries, including the US, Germany, India, and Brazil, the average number of children per parent is below the replacement level of 2.1–2.2.
One in five adults in 14 countries surveyed (the US, India, Brazil, Germany, etc.) said they could not have as many children as they would like, primarily due to the high cost of living and financial problems.
The analysis shows that the problem is not a lack of desire to have children, but a lack of opportunities — a lack of social and financial support.
“The world has entered a phase of large-scale fertility decline… Many people feel they cannot have the family they want, and this is indeed a crisis,” said Natalia Kanem, Executive Director of the Fund.
Demographic instability — population decline and an aging population — threaten the economy and social structure of countries. The loss of young citizens — young families are postponing having children or deciding not to have them at all, which reduces consumption and national wealth. Geographical heterogeneity — while the populations of Europe and Japan are declining, growth is occurring mainly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
The UNFPA report clearly states that fertility is declining not because of a lack of desire to have children, but because of a lack of adequate support from governments. Without PROGRAMMATIC assistance in the social and economic spheres, global societies risk facing demographically impoverished future generations.
