Real GDP percentage changes over previous period in 2014-2024
Open4Business.com.ua
The eurozone economy grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the previous three months, according to a report by the European Union Statistical Office (Eurostat).
This is the highest quarterly increase in two years. The consensus forecast of experts surveyed by Trading Economics also assumed that GDP growth would remain at 0.4%.
In annualized terms, the eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.9% in July-September, which also coincided with market expectations. In the second quarter, the euro area economy grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.5% year-on-year. In the third quarter, consumer spending in the euro area increased by 0.7% compared to the previous three months, government spending by 0.5%, and gross fixed investment by 2%. Exports decreased by 1.5%, while imports increased by 0.2%.
Germany’s GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and decreased by 0.3% in annual terms, France’s increased by 0.4% and 1.2% respectively, Italy’s remained unchanged quarter-on-quarter and increased by 0.4% in annual terms.
The EU economy in July-September grew by 0.4% compared to the second quarter and by 1% compared to the same period last year.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video analysis of the economies of Ukraine, Europe, and the world, see the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel for more details: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grE5wjPaItI
http://relocation.com.ua/ekonomika-ievrozony-v-tretomu-kvartali-2024-roku-zrosla-na-0-4/
Austrian Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer thanked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the good and deep conversation they had in Paris on Saturday in which they discussed efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.
“We talked about intensifying our joint efforts to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace. As the capital of a neutral country, Vienna is always ready to host future peace talks,” Nehammer wrote on social media X following the meeting.
In a short video posted, the Austrian chancellor indicated that the conversation with the Ukrainian president was about what comes next when there is a chance to talk about peace again.
“I suggested Austria as a place for such talks. Before that, I spoke with the American president-elect Donald Trump. We are doing our best to build bridges, especially when it comes to how to restore peace on the European continent,” Nehammer added.
International rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) (LTFC) at ‘Restricted Default’ (RD) pending the completion of the restructuring of obligations for which Ukraine has already suspended payments or announced that it will suspend them in the future.
“Ukraine’s LTFC IDR will remain ‘RD’ until Fitch makes a determination that the exchange has been completed and normalized with a substantial majority of external commercial creditors,” the agency said in a statement on its website.
Fitch recalled that Ukraine continues the process of restructuring its external commercial debt. Following the successful completion of the Eurobond swap in September 2024, the government ordered to temporarily suspend payments on Cargill’s $0.7bn external commercial loan from September 3, 2024, Ukrenergo’s $825m state-guaranteed Eurobonds from November 9, 2024 and GDP-guarantees from May 31, 2025.
In addition, the agency affirmed the IDR on local loans of “CCC+”. “The higher local currency IDRs reflect Ukraine’s continued servicing of local currency debt as part of the ongoing external commercial debt restructuring process, which confirms our expectation of preferential treatment for local currency debt,” Fitch explained.
It pointed out that the structure of the government bond debt – only 1.3% held by non-residents with an overwhelming share held by the NBU and domestic banks, mostly state-owned – limits Ukraine’s benefits from any restructuring, as it creates potential fiscal costs (including bank recapitalization) and risks to the stability of the financial sector, hindering the development of the domestic debt market.
Fitch expects the war to continue through 2025 within the current broad parameters. “Despite some Russian territorial gains since late 2023, Western military support and strong resolve should allow Ukraine to avoid significant additional territorial losses,” the agency says.
It suggests that the new US administration’s stated goal of ending the war could lead to an agreed ceasefire, but a peace deal is unlikely due to the difficult concessions that would be required from both sides. The parameters of an agreed ceasefire, including security guarantees for Ukraine and territory that would remain under Russian control, remain uncertain, Fitch added.
It estimates that the government budget deficit will remain high at 19.1-19.2% of GDP in 2024-2025, despite recently approved tax increases, due to high defense spending and expected reductions in foreign grants. Significant fiscal consolidation will be limited by the continuation of the war as well as reconstruction costs in the event of a prolonged ceasefire, which is likely to maintain high dependence on foreign financing.
Fitch forecasts Ukraine’s debt to rise to 90.8% of GDP in 2024 from 84.4% in 2023, with 77% of external debt highly concessional and 74% denominated in USD. The agency adds that uncertainty over near-term external financing has eased as the G7 is likely to provide around $50bn in loans backed by proceeds from frozen Russian sovereign assets.
Fitch also expects the current account deficit to widen to 8.4% of GDP in 2024 and 13.6% of GDP in 2025, as capacity constraints (e.g. labor and energy) will restrain export growth. Rising consumer spending, military imports, easing currency restrictions and projected lower subsidies will outweigh the projected decline in imports of services from Ukrainians abroad, the agency added. It estimates that official financing will cover external borrowing needs, with international reserves rising to $42bn in 2024 from $40.5bn in 2023. Fitch also forecasts inflation to average 9.3% in 2025, up from 6.2% in 2024, as rapid wage growth amid labor shortages and skills mismatches could keep price pressures on domestic demand. At the same time, growth will slow to 2.9% in 2025 from 4% in 2024 due to persistent labor and energy shortages. “A durable and credible ceasefire could significantly boost the country’s growth prospects in 2025-2026,” the agency noted.
The Ukrainian leader planned to use the grand reopening of Notre-Dame Cathedral to lobby the president-elect and other world leaders attending the ceremony.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine met with President-elect Donald J. Trump and President Emmanuel Macron of France ahead of Notre-Dame Cathedral’s grand reopening on Saturday, an event Ukraine sees as a chance to press its case to the world leaders in attendance.
Mr. Zelensky’s meeting with Mr. Trump was the first face-to-face encounter between the two since Mr. Trump won the U.S. presidential election last month.
Mr. Zelensky stepped into the Élysée Palace just after Mr. Macron met with Mr. Trump there, and the three posed for pictures ahead of a trilateral meeting.
In recent weeks, Ukrainian officials have sought to engage with Mr. Trump’s incoming administration, aiming to influence its plans for a swift end to the war with Russia in a way that aligns as much as possible with Ukraine’s interests.
These plans have so far been vague, but officials in Kyiv are concerned that Mr. Trump’s vague pledge to end the war in 24 hours could result in Russia keeping the territory it has captured and ignoring Ukraine’s demand to join NATO as a security guarantee to prevent further attacks.
Just this week, a delegation of senior Ukrainian officials and government members visited the United States and met with JD Vance, the vice president-elect; Representative Mike Waltz of Florida, Mr. Trump’s pick for national security adviser; and Keith Kellogg, Mr. Trump’s choice for envoy to Ukraine and Russia. Leading the delegation was Andriy Yermak, Mr. Zelensky’s powerful chief of staff.
Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political analyst, said the visit’s goal was to introduce Mr. Yermak to the American officials as Ukraine’s chief negotiator, present Ukraine’s stance on future peace talks and gauge the future Trump administration’s position on the negotiations.
“What is happening now is just the first act of a prelude to the negotiations to come,” Mr. Fesenko wrote in a post on Facebook.
Ukraine’s outreach to Mr. Trump’s team has coincided with an apparent shift in Kyiv’s public stance on peace talks. After years of vowing not to cede territory to Russia, Mr. Zelensky has recently suggested he would consider doing so as a way to end the war, in return for NATO membership. Ukraine, he added, would then seek to regain its occupied territory through negotiations.
The change in position has been seen as a way for Ukraine to show Mr. Trump that it is ready to make concessions as part of negotiations.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/07/world/europe/zelensky-trump-macron-notre-dame.html
