Demography is increasingly becoming one of the main factors that will determine the economy, politics, and the global balance of power in the 21st century. A new video by the Experts Club analytical center, dedicated to changes in the population of the 20 largest countries in the world, shows that the demographic center of gravity is gradually shifting from East Asia to South Asia and Africa. This conclusion generally coincides with the latest UN estimates: under the baseline scenario, the world’s population will grow from 8.2 billion in 2024 to approximately 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, after which it will reach a plateau and begin to decline slowly.
The main change has already taken place at the top of the global ranking. India has overtaken China and secured its status as the most populous country in the world. At the same time, the further trajectories of these countries diverge: India will remain at very high levels for some time, while China has already entered a phase of long-term demographic decline.
Looking at the top twenty more broadly, it becomes clear that the former demographic balance of the world is becoming a thing of the past. China, Japan, Russia, and a number of European countries are facing either stagnation or population decline, while Nigeria, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and other rapidly growing countries of the Global South are strengthening their positions. The UN directly points out that population growth until the end of the century will increasingly be concentrated in sub-Saharan African countries, while a number of large countries in Asia and Europe have already begun or are expected to undergo a sustained decline in the number of inhabitants.
Africa attracts particular attention in this context. According to UN forecasts, Nigeria will secure its place among the world’s largest countries during the 21st century and become one of the most important demographic centers of the planet. At the same time, the populations of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia are growing very rapidly. This means that in a few decades it will be African states that will have a much stronger influence on global demand, labor markets, urbanization, food consumption, and investment flows.
“We are entering an era when demography is once again becoming a strategic force. Not oil, not gas, and not even individual technologies, but precisely population size, age structure, and population dynamics will determine where new markets, new centers of production, and new political leaders of the world will emerge. Countries that are increasing their populations today will tomorrow claim greater influence in the global economy and international politics,” said Maksym Urakin, co-organizer of the Experts Club analytical center and Candidate of Economic and Historical Sciences.
For the global economy, this is not just statistics. Demographic growth creates future consumer markets, but at the same time requires jobs, infrastructure, education systems, and healthcare systems. In countries where the population is growing rapidly, the main challenge is turning demographic mass into an economic resource. In countries where the population is shrinking and aging, the problem is different — pressure on pension systems, labor shortages, and a slowdown in domestic demand. UN materials emphasize that dozens of countries have already passed their population peak, and this will increasingly affect the economic architecture of the world.
Against this background, the Experts Club video emphasizes another important idea: the question is no longer only how many people live in a country today, but also which direction the trend is moving in. Some states remain in the top 20 by inertia for now, but will gradually lose demographic weight. Others, by contrast, are only rising in the global ranking, but it is they who are shaping the new architecture of the 21st century. This is especially visible in the example of China and India, as well as Nigeria, Pakistan, and the DRC.
Experts Club separately draws attention to the Ukrainian case. According to a recent study published by Open4Business with reference to a Visual Capitalist visualization based on UN data, Ukraine has become the world leader in population decline since 2000. In the top 10 countries by population decline in 2000–2025, Ukraine ranked first with a figure of -32.5%. It is followed in this anti-ranking by the Marshall Islands, Bulgaria, Latvia, Moldova, Lithuania, Puerto Rico, Romania, Serbia, and Albania.
For Ukraine, this result is particularly alarming, since it is no longer simply a matter of natural demographic decline, but a combination of low birth rates, population aging, emigration, and the consequences of the full-scale war. Open4Business also notes that in 2022–2023 alone, net migration from Ukraine amounted to about 6 million people, which further intensified demographic pressure on the country.
“Ukraine today is one of the most illustrative examples of how a demographic crisis turns into a question of the national future. If a country becomes the world leader in population decline over a quarter of a century, this is no longer a social anomaly, but a fundamental challenge for the economy, the labor market, the education system, the pension model, and even post-war recovery. Demography has already become a matter of economic security, and in the coming years its importance will only grow,” Urakin emphasized.
For Ukraine and Europe, such global shifts mean increasing competition for human capital, investment, and markets. If Europe remains a space of aging and low birth rates, the Global South is becoming a space of large-scale demographic expansion. As a result, the political and economic weight of the world will be redistributed ever more noticeably in favor of those countries where the population continues to grow rapidly. This is no longer a hypothesis, but a long-term trend confirmed by international demographic studies.
That is why demography is becoming one of the central topics for strategic analysis. Changes in the population size of the world’s largest countries are at the same time a story about the economy, geopolitics, and the future of the global system as a whole. The Experts Club video shows this transformation in a visual form: the world of the 21st century will not simply be more populous, but different in terms of its demographic center of gravity.
The volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) in China’s economy in the first quarter decreased by 7.3% compared to the same period last year—to 249.6 billion yuan ($36.35 billion), according to the Ministry of Commerce.
The manufacturing sector attracted 71.46 billion yuan, while the services sector attracted 174.6 billion yuan. In particular, investment in high-tech industries rose by 30.7% to reach 102.73 billion yuan.
Luxembourg nearly doubled its FDI (by 96.8%), Switzerland increased it by 50.4%, France by 42.3%, and South Korea by 35.2%, according to data from the ministry cited by Xinhua News Agency.
In January–March, 13,987 new enterprises with foreign capital were registered in China, an 11% increase compared to the same period in 2025.
As reported, FDI volume for 2025 decreased by 9.5% to 747.7 billion yuan.
The government is preparing to expand the state-run “Affordable Medicines” program starting July 1, 2026, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced.
“We will add a significant number of medications for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases based on all active ingredients available in Ukraine. They will be available free of charge or with a partial copayment via an electronic prescription. I have heard a report on this from Health Minister Viktor Lyashko,” Svyrydenko wrote on her Telegram channel.
She emphasized that cardiovascular diseases account for about 60% of deaths in Ukraine. Every year, over 800,000 people are diagnosed with ischemic heart disease, and nearly 50,000 suffer a heart attack. A significant portion of these cases can be prevented with regular treatment and monitoring.
“The ‘Affordable Medicines’ program is a key support tool. It has already benefited 6.18 million Ukrainians, with medications available at 17,348 pharmacies. The program already includes 748 items, with the highest demand for medications for cardiovascular diseases. For many people, this is daily treatment, so it is important that it be accessible and free of charge,” the prime minister emphasized.
She added that in the second half of the year, the program will include medications containing all active ingredients available in Ukraine that are necessary for outpatient treatment of such diseases in accordance with medical protocols. The Ministry of Health has been tasked with consulting the market and preparing a decision for the program’s launch.
According to Serbian Economist, Montenegro’s long-term residential rental market entered a cooling phase in 2026: following the rapid growth of previous years, oversupply began to shift the balance in favor of tenants.
Currently, studios in Montenegro are offered at an average price of 300–400 euros per month, one-bedroom apartments at 400–800 euros, two-bedroom apartments at 600–1,200 euros, and houses starting at 1,000 euros. In the premium segment, villas and luxury properties can cost from 2,000 to 10,000 euros per month and higher.
The main reasons for the market stagnation are the decrease in the number of foreign residents staying in the country long-term and the accumulated oversupply. According to a representative of a local real estate agency, property owners are increasingly finding that apartments remain vacant longer than they did a year ago, while tenants have more room to negotiate prices and terms.
The market is no longer operating according to the 2022–2024 model, when owners could quickly rent out properties amid an influx of foreigners and limited supply. Now, in a number of locations, tenants are increasingly choosing between several options, securing discounts, or demanding better terms regarding the lease, furnishings, and utility bills.
For Montenegro, this shift is significant not only for the housing sector but also for the broader demand model, which in recent years has relied heavily on the influx of foreigners, relocators, and investors. If the number of long-term tenants continues to decline, some landlords may increasingly switch to short-term rentals or adjust their price expectations downward.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2698
Ukraine’s economy at the end of 2025 demonstrated a more stable conclusion to the year than had been expected in the autumn, although it is still premature to speak of a full-fledged recovery. This conclusion follows from an analytical review of key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world, prepared on the basis of data from the State Statistics Service, the NBU, the IMF, the World Bank, and leading international statistical agencies.
According to the review, Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2025 was estimated at 1.8%, while inflation in December slowed to 8% year-on-year. At the same time, core inflationary pressure also weakened: core inflation in December also slowed to 8%, compared with 11% in September. This allowed the economy to end the year with formally positive dynamics even against the backdrop of war, losses of energy infrastructure, a labor shortage, and high budgetary pressure.
At the same time, the structure of growth remained uneven. The consumer segment and part of investment activity looked resilient: in the fourth quarter of 2025, growth in retail trade accelerated on average to 13.6% year-on-year, while construction activity was supported by housing repairs and the restoration of the logistics, infrastructure, and energy base. In the second half of the year, wages in the private sector, according to estimates based on banking data, grew by more than 20% in annual terms. At the same time, industry remained weak: in the fourth quarter, industrial production was on average declining by 4.8% year-on-year, primarily due to a downturn in the energy sector and the extractive industry.
As noted by the founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, Maksym Urakin, this is not a phase of classical economic upswing, but rather the preservation of macro-resilience in wartime conditions.
“The result of 2025 for Ukraine can be called moderately positive, but without grounds for complacency. Yes, inflation turned out to be lower than had been expected back in the autumn, core price pressure also weakened noticeably, reserves became record-high, and the economy did not slide into recession even despite harsh wartime conditions. At the same time, this is not a sign of a full-fledged upswing,” he emphasized.
Change in real GDP at actual prices relative to the previous period in 2014–2024
According to Maksym Urakin, the current model of the Ukrainian economy rests on a combination of external financing, high budget expenditures, business adaptation, and the resilience of domestic demand. “In fact, we see an economic model that rests on a combination of external financing, high budget expenditures, business adaptation, and the resilience of domestic demand. But without a more large-scale inflow of investment into production, energy, logistics, and technological renewal, this growth will remain limited and very sensitive to any new external or military shock,” he noted.
External assistance remained the most important pillar of macro-financial stability. In the fourth quarter, its inflow increased sharply, and overall in 2025 Ukraine received $52.4 billion in official financing, including $32.7 billion from the EU and $12 billion from the United States. This made it possible to increase international reserves to a historical maximum of $57.3 billion at the end of the year. But at the same time, imbalances also intensified: the current account deficit for January–November reached $30.6 billion, while the consolidated budget deficit excluding grants amounted to UAH 2.209 trillion, or 24.8% of GDP. The NBU also indicated that public and publicly guaranteed debt would remain at a level of more than 100% of GDP over the forecast horizon.
Geographical structure of international assistance to Ukraine in 2022–2025, EUR billion
Urakin believes that 2026 will be decisive for Ukraine. “The key conclusion of 2025 for Ukraine is very simple: external assistance bought the state time, but by itself it does not solve the problem of the weak structure of the economy. Record reserves, large official financing, and even slowing inflation do not yet mean that the economy has become self-sufficient. On the contrary, if we look at the current account deficit, the scale of the budget gap, and the debt burden, it is clear that macro-resilience still rests to a large extent on external resources,” he emphasized.
He added that without an inflow of investment into production, infrastructure, energy, and export processing, the current stability risks remaining only a mode of maintaining the system. “That is why 2026 will be critical: if it does not bring an increase in investment into production, infrastructure, energy, and export processing, then the current stability will remain only a mode of maintaining the system, and not a transition to genuine economic recovery,” Urakin summarized.
Against the global backdrop, the situation looked moderately weak, but not crisis-like. According to the review, the world economy was slowing at the end of 2025; however, the United States maintained resilient growth, the eurozone demonstrated weak but positive dynamics, and China ended the year with formally strong GDP growth of 5%, although against the backdrop of weak domestic demand. For Ukraine, this means that the external environment remains heterogeneous: without a sharp collapse, but also without a powerful external impulse that could automatically accelerate domestic recovery.
Experts Club is a Ukrainian information and analytical center engaged in the preparation of studies, reviews, and expert materials on the economy, international relations, markets, and long-term development trends of Ukraine and the world. The center also regularly serves as a platform for public comments and discussions involving specialized experts.
According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC), Ukraine exported 436,000 tons of poultry meat to foreign markets in 2025, a 2% decrease compared to the previous year.
The business association noted that despite a slight annual decline, current export volumes are 1% higher than the average for the past five years. The key consumers of Ukrainian products remain EU countries (30.6%), the Middle East (27.2%), and European countries outside the EU (22.6%).
According to analysts, total poultry meat production in 2025 amounted to 1,390,000 tons. Meanwhile, the industry is gradually recovering: the poultry population had grown to 192.3 million birds by early 2026 (+3%). The share of poultry in industrial enterprises is 64%, while in private households and small farms it is 36%.
“Growth is driven primarily by industrial enterprises that are investing in modernization and biosecurity, which allows them to maintain efficiency despite high feed costs,” the association explained.
A distinct trend of the year was a sharp decline in imports—to 46,000 tons, which is 73% below the five-year average. The UACB attributes this to increased market self-sufficiency and the expansion of domestic producers’ capacity, who are successfully replacing foreign products.
“The poultry industry is operating under pressure from economic and energy challenges, yet it maintains its production potential. The growing role of medium-sized and regional producers, as well as their investments in modernization, play a key role in supporting the domestic market and increasing exports,” the UCAB concluded.
