48.8 thousand criminal cases of fraud were registered in Ukraine last year, according to the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine. This is a quarter less than in 2024. One in five cases was served with a notice of suspicion. Only 18% of proceedings went to court. Most cases are in the capital, Dnipro and Kharkiv regions.
48,871 criminal proceedings under Article 190 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine “Fraud” were recorded in Ukraine in 2025. This is a quarter less than in 2024, when law enforcement registered almost 65,000 cases.
Overall, the figures have actually returned to the level of 2016. Back then, there were just over 46 thousand fraud proceedings in Ukraine. After 2017 and before the full-scale invasion, the number of new proceedings steadily decreased from year to year. The peak occurred in 2023: 82,609 criminal cases – an average of almost 7,000 per month. However, for the second year in a row, the statistics have been on the decline again. Last year, on average, about 4,000 cases were registered per month.
However, suspicion was served in every fifth case – 10,456 proceedings. And 18% of cases went to court: 8,758 criminal proceedings. In 2024, this figure was 24%.
Kyiv remains the leader in the number of fraud cases – 6,825. It is followed by Dnipropetrovs’k region with 4,844 cases and Kharkiv region with 3,677 proceedings.
At the same time, the number of new proceedings decreased almost across the country. The only region that recorded an increase was Khmelnytskyi: +2.7% over the year. The most significant improvement is observed in Mykolaiv region, where the number of new cases has almost halved, as well as in Chernivtsi region: -39%.
https://opendatabot.ua/analytics/fraud-2025-12
The weather in the western, northern, and Vinnytsia regions on the last day of January is expected to be dry, with temperatures at night expected to be 12-17° below zero, during the day 9-14° below zero, and in Zakarpattia during the day from 3° below zero to 2° above zero, according to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center.
The rest of the country is expected to see snow on Saturday, January 31, with rain in the southeast of Ukraine, and freezing rain and wet snow in the south, most of the central regions, and the Kharkiv region. The temperature during the day is expected to be 5-10° below zero, in the Azov region and in the Luhansk region from 3° below zero to 2° above zero, and in Crimea 1-6° above zero.
There will be icy patches on the country’s roads in some places. The wind will be north-easterly and northerly, 7-12 m/s, with gusts of 15-20 m/s in some places in the north-east of the country.
In Kyiv, there will be no precipitation on January 31. There will be icy patches on the roads in some places. The wind will be northeast, 7-12 m/s. The temperature at night will be 13-15° below zero, and during the day 10-12° below zero.
According to data from the Boris Sreznevsky Central Geophysical Observatory, for the entire period of meteorological observations in Kyiv since 1881, the highest temperature on January 31 was recorded at 8.1°C in 2015, and the lowest was 25.2° below zero (at night) in 1954.
On Sunday, February 1, cold weather is expected in Ukraine: temperatures at night will be 20-25°C, during the day 13-18°C below zero, and in the southern, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions, temperatures at night will be 12-17°C, during the day 8-13°C below zero. In Crimea, temperatures are expected to be 3-8° below zero at night and during the day, and in Zakarpattia, 4-9° below zero at night and around 0° during the day.
No precipitation, only light snow in the southeastern part at night. There will be icy patches on the roads in some places. The wind will be mainly northern, 5-10 m/s.
In Kyiv on February 1, it will be cold with no precipitation, with temperatures of 20-22° at night and 14-16° below zero during the day. There will be icy patches on the roads in some places. The wind will be from the north, 5-10 m/s.
Since the launch of the Rozetka bank card, around 150,000 people have become cardholders, according to the company’s co-founder Vladislav Chechotkin.
“Our goal is to have at least 1 million people using the Rozetka card by the end of the year,” he wrote on Facebook.
According to the company’s website, the Rozetka card offers special prices on goods, bonuses for payments, a credit limit of up to UAH 200,000 with a grace period of up to 62 days, payment in installments for up to 24 months, and the ability to control expenses and payments in the Rozetka app.
As reported, at the end of September 2025, Rozetka, in partnership with Unex Bank and the Mastercard payment system, launched its own credit card.
The online store for electronics and household appliances Rozetka was founded in 2005 in Kyiv by Vladislav and Irina Chechotkin. Later, a fund managed by Horizon Capital became a co-owner of the company. Today, the company has transformed into a multi-category online marketplace, but it is also developing a network of its own stores.
According to the National Bank, as of December 1, 2025, Unex Bank ranked 39th among 60 banks in Ukraine with assets of UAH 4.73 billion. Its equity capital as of that date was UAH 358.5 million. In the first 11 months of 2025, the bank earned UAH 2.0 million in net profit.
The ultimate beneficial owners of the bank are the founder and head of the investment company Dragon Capital, Tomas Fiala, with 75.01%, and the chairman of the board of Unex Bank, Ivan Svitek, with 24.99%.
US President Donald Trump signed an executive order declaring a national state of emergency over the actions of the Cuban government, calling the situation an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to US national security and foreign policy.
According to the White House, the executive order also launches a procedure to impose additional duties on goods from countries that sell or otherwise supply oil to Cuba.
According to Reuters, the specific levels of tariffs and the list of countries in the document are not fixed – the decision involves further evaluation by specialized agencies of the United States.
Cuban authorities have publicly condemned Washington’s moves, saying that such measures could hit energy supplies and critical services on the island.
Centravis Production Ukraine (Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk region), part of Centravis Ltd., produced 13.77 thousand tons of seamless stainless steel pipes in 2025, compared to 13.7 thousand tons in 2024, while in 2023–2024, the company’s annual production growth rate reached 12%.
As Centravis CEO Yuriy Atanasov said during an online press conference on Friday, Nikopol is currently under constant shelling.
“We continue to work in these difficult conditions. And production at the level of almost 14 thousand is an incredible victory. We are improving our financial position and reducing our credit position. We are raising salaries, and the average salary in the company has now reached UAH 39,000,” the CEO said.
According to him, in 2025, the company increased its export share from 90% to 96% and supplied more than 13,000 tons of seamless stainless steel pipes to world markets.
According to the press release, among Centravis’s contracts are cooperation with GE Steam Power, a division of General Electric specializing in equipment for steam power and industrial energy systems; a contract with Ellimetal NV, a Belgian company that processes and supplies high-tech metal solutions for heat exchange and industrial equipment; a contract with RFF Rohr Flansch Fitting, under which Centravis won the competition with leading European manufacturers and supplied pipes for the overhaul of a heat treatment furnace at the Voestalpine Donawitz plant (Austria), as well as a number of other projects.
The main focus is on maintaining and strengthening positions in the global market, working with high-tech customers, and implementing complex engineering solutions.
“For us, it’s not about quantity, but quality. We don’t compete with cheap Indian or Chinese pipes. Our priority is marginal projects with complex technical solutions and increased quality requirements. In this segment, we are able to compete with leading European and American manufacturers,” Atanasov emphasized.
He also recalled that in 2025, Centravis traditionally participated in key global industry events, including Adipec 2025 in the UAE and Made in Steel in Milan.
The press release also states that the economic results of 2025 enabled the company to increase investment in production, fulfill its social obligations, and contribute to Ukraine’s sustainability. Last year, investments amounted to UAH 159.6 million (+13.5%); the amount of taxes and fees paid increased by 24% to UAH 680.8 million; and funding for philanthropic projects reached UAH 11.5 million.
“We hope that 2026 will bring Ukraine lasting and just peace, and we will be able to focus on rebuilding the country, developing production, and exporting products made in Ukraine,” Atanasov concluded.
According to Centravis CFO Alexander Joseph, EBITDA in 2025 amounted to EUR 12 million, which is twice as much as in 2024.
As reported, the company planned to increase production to 15,000 tons in 2025.
Centravis was founded in 2000 and is one of the ten largest manufacturers of seamless stainless steel pipes in the world. Its main production facilities are located in Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk region). In 2023, a branch of the company opened in Uzhhorod.
Centravis Ltd. was created on the basis of Nikopol Stainless Steel Pipe Plant CJSC and the service and trading companies of YVIS Production and Commercial Enterprise LLC. Its shareholders are members of the Atanasov family. Centravis Ltd. owns 100% of the shares of PJSC “Centravis Production Ukraine.”
Issue #2 – January 2026
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
The main event of the second half of January 2026 was the expected meeting of the Federal Reserve Committee, which considered the level of the key policy rate. As a result, as expected by the markets, the Fed left the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and the federal funds rate remains in the current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The last meeting of the Fed Committee actually marked the beginning of a pause after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025. Currently, the situation in the US economy does not look pessimistic, as GDP growth in the third quarter reached 4.4%, which significantly exceeded forecasts. Nevertheless, the Fed needs to keep the situation under control, as worrisome trends could become “black swans” for the US economy in 2026. We are talking about a weakening labor market and an inflation rate that exceeds the 2% target.
As for the EUR/USD pair, the dollar continued to fall against the euro in January and even reached the level of 1.2038 by the end of the month, although later there was a slight pullback to 1.1930. Thus, analysts noted that the US dollar fell to its lowest level in four years at the end of January 2026, and this happened after US President Donald Trump dismissed fears of a fall in the US currency. When asked by journalists whether he was concerned about the currency’s decline, he replied: “I think the value of the dollar – look at the business we do. The dollar is doing great.” This statement sent the dollar tumbling, as it caused investors to rush toward traditional investment havens that include gold and the Swiss franc.
While the dollar is losing, the euro is strengthening. The single European currency has strengthened by 15% over the past year. Among the reasons are the instability of Donald Trump’s policies, the Trump administration’s economic decisions on tariffs, and threats to further US economic growth. Of course, Donald Trump’s latest statements on Greenland also add fuel to the fire of the dollar’s decline.
The EU itself is not too happy about the strong euro, as it makes European exports less competitive. Thus, the current trend of strengthening the euro is unlikely to be beneficial for the development of the EU economy. Some experts even predict that the eurozone’s GDP will be about 0.2% lower by the end of the year if the euro/dollar exchange rate remains at the current level, rather than at about $1.16, which has been the benchmark since the EU-US trade agreement in late July. As for whether the European Central Bank will take any action, no one is sure yet. The next ECB meeting in early February should provide some guidance and show whether Europe is ready to change the vector of monetary policy.
Domestic Ukrainian context
In January, the Ukrainian currency market was really stormy, and devaluation processes accelerated, with a particular surge in the middle of the month, when the official exchange rate reached UAH 43.39 per dollar. However, the NBU’s interventions played an important role in reversing the fluctuations, and as of January 30, the official exchange rate was set at UAH 42.84 per dollar.
In January, the NBU continued its policy of exchange rate flexibility, but increased interventions to cool down the high demand for foreign currency. In the first three weeks of January, the NBU sold USD 2.678 billion on the market, with the largest amount (over USD 1.06 billion) in the third week of the month. However, the peak level of demand observed in December, when the NBU sold more than $4.65 billion on the market, was not observed in January.
An important decision in January was to cut the NBU’s key policy rate. The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine decided to start a cycle of interest rate easing, and the rate was cut from 15.5% to 15% starting January 30, 2026. According to the NBU, this is consistent with bringing inflation to the 5% target on the policy horizon and will support the economy at the same time. In addition, the NBU informed that in December, both consumer and core inflation slowed to 8% year-on-year. They say that the annual growth rate of consumer prices also declined in January, but inflation expectations remained relatively high. According to the NBU’s forecast, inflation will decline to 6% at the end of 2027, and to the target of 5% in 2028.
As for foreign aid, the NBU says that the expected amount of foreign aid will be enough to finance the budget deficit without issuing new debt and to keep international reserves at a sufficient level to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market. The NBU said in a statement that the EU Council has decided to allocate EUR 90 billion to Ukraine in 2026 and 2027, and that support for Ukraine will continue under the current ERA Loans mechanism. The NBU’s updated forecast suggests that international reserves will amount to USD 65 billion by the end of 2016. At the end of 2026, international reserves will amount to USD 65 billion.
Despite the NBU’s “reassurance” in the form of a rate cut and reminders from the regulator’s top officials about the upcoming multibillion-dollar financial support from partners, the FX market is still trying to follow the devaluation trend. There are many reasons for this: large-scale shelling of cities, which has significantly worsened the situation in the energy sector, the difficult situation at the front, and the lack of clear signals from the IMF regarding the approval of a new program worth $8.1 billion.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In the Ukrainian foreign exchange market in January, the dollar initially gained ground, but lost ground in the second half of the month as the hryvnia strengthened. At the beginning of the month, the interbank exchange rate was at UAH 42.3 per dollar, while on January 15 it was at UAH 43.55 per dollar, and on January 29 it was at UAH 42.9 per dollar.
The cash market experienced accelerated devaluation waves, and in mid-January the purchase rate reached 43-43.2 UAH/USD, while the sale rate was in the range of 43.6-43.7 UAH/USD, but at the end of the month, the strengthening of the hryvnia on the interbank market also affected the cash segment, where the purchase rate was 42.5-42.3 UAH/USD, and the sale rate was 43-43.15 UAH/USD.
Meanwhile, the spread between the buying and selling rates at bank cash desks and exchange offices increased to UAH 0.55-0.65 per dollar compared to December.
The cash market saw a surge in demand in January: according to the NBU, between January 1 and January 27, households purchased USD 1.64 billion (in equivalent), while sales of cash currency by households during this period amounted to USD 0.97 billion.
Key factors of influence
– International context. The dollar began to strengthen very actively against the euro as a result of the expected pause in the Fed’s interest rate cuts, as well as pessimistic expectations about the development of the US economy in 2026, including inflation and the labor market. Investor sentiment was also affected by President Donald Trump’s statements on the dollar’s strength and on Greenland.
– The National Bank of Ukraine cut its key policy rate to 15%, thus starting to ease monetary policy to bring inflation in Ukraine to the 5% target.
– The NBU increased interventions in the interbank market as part of its managed exchange rate flexibility strategy, which brought the dollar back below the psychological level of UAH 43/USD at the end of January.
Forecast.
– In the short term (1-2 weeks): the basic range of 42.9-43.4 UAH/$ with possible fluctuations towards a weaker hryvnia.
– Medium-term (2-3 months): UAH 43.50-44.00/$. In the international market, the weak dollar trend may change in the short term to return to last year’s exchange rate levels of approximately 1.17 EUR/USD. However, the inconsistent policies of President Donald Trump and the situation around the upcoming change of the Fed chairman and expectations of a new stage of easing in the US will send signals to investors about the long-term trajectory of the weak dollar. In Ukraine, the national currency will be influenced by the situation with the receipt of aid from partners, as well as the level of the energy crisis and the speed of its resolution. Demand on the interbank market will remain high.
– Longer term (6+ months): The scenario of gradual devaluation remains in place, and the NBU will periodically enter the market with more foreign currency supply to level out demand. The benchmark for the first half of 2026 is UAH 43.5-44.9/$.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In January, the euro strengthened on the Ukrainian market: the official euro exchange rate stood at UAH 49.79/€ in early January and reached UAH 51.24/€ at the end of the month. In the cash segment, the euro also strengthened quite significantly in January: at the beginning of the month, the average buying rate was 49.5 UAH/€, and the selling rate was 50.17 UAH/€. By the end of the month, the euro was buying at 51 UAH/€ and selling at 51.95 UAH/€ in banks and exchange offices.
Key observations
– Exchange rate geometry: At the end of January, the selling rate for cash euros was at the level of 51.6-51.95 UAH/€. The dynamics of the euro exchange rate was influenced by the general devaluation trend, which intensified in the first two weeks of January 2026, as well as by the rapid and steady strengthening of the euro on the global market.
– Supply and demand: Demand for euros in early 2026 is at a high level as importers are actively purchasing energy equipment, the need for which has increased sharply after several massive Russian attacks targeting thermal power plants in large cities. On the cash market, demand for both dollars and euros grew during the month.
Key influencing factors
– Global context: the euro is strengthening against the dollar amid unstable forecasts for the US economy and political statements by Donald Trump, which affect investors’ desire to exit the dollar into safe-haven assets such as the euro, Swiss franc, and gold.
– Domestic market: On January 27, the euro crossed the psychological mark of 51 UAH/euro (official exchange rate), and in the cash segment is rapidly approaching the level of 52 UAH/euro, which stimulates demand for the European currency.
– Behavioral factor: In Ukraine, there has been an increase in both the volume of purchases of dollars and euros and the volume of currency sales, and the activity of currency exchange operations traditionally increases in difficult crisis periods. In January 2026, net purchases of foreign currency by households are likely to exceed December’s figures: the balance for January 1-27 is USD 693 million (December: USD 739 million).
Forecast.
– In the short term (1-2 weeks): the euro will be in the range of 51.5-51.9 UAH/€ with a tendency to move to the upper limit.
– Medium-term (2-3 months): the trend for a strong euro and, accordingly, a weak dollar may continue for some time in the international market. In Ukraine, in addition to the global trend of a stronger euro, the exchange rate will be affected by general devaluation sentiment due to high volumes of imports in euros, which will accelerate the euro’s growth. The exchange rate target is 51.8-53.5 UAH/€.
– Longer-term (6+ months): the euro may rise to 53.5-55.5 UAH/€ in the first half of 2026.
Recommendations: dollar or euro – buy, sell, or wait?
USD/UAH
The dollar’s weakening trend, caused by investors’ doubts about the prospects for the US economy and skeptical assessments of the labor market, is further reinforced by negative expectations about geopolitical risks (in particular, in the case of Greenland), a change in the Fed’s leadership, and concerns about the Fed’s independence.
Investors see the future policy of the Fed as another risk, as investors fear inconsistent steps and a lack of predictability as Donald Trump continues to put pressure on the Fed. This means that the dollar is unlikely to strengthen to 1.1650 in the near future, and large investors are looking for ways to redirect their investments from the dollar to other currencies and liquid assets.
Ukraine is currently experiencing a clear devaluation trend, which means that dollar-denominated savings will remain the main basis for investors’ medium- and long-term strategies. The next stages of hryvnia devaluation will only lead to some options for generating speculative income on currency exchange. However, the dollar remains the main savings currency for various investment plans.
EUR/UAH
In recent months, the euro has shown a strengthening trend, which allows investors planning to enter the dollar to do so profitably. Investors will also continue to buy euros to form part of their savings in this currency as part of a long-term strategy. As the liquidity of the euro is only improving, investors can expect to keep about 40% of their foreign currency savings in this currency.
Overall strategy
In January 2026, the Fed Committee meeting ended with the expected “nothing” – the rate was left at the current level. Pessimism about the future development of the US economy and uncertainty about clear and adequate steps by the Fed contribute to the dollar’s decline. But there are no “black swans” in the EU: the economy is growing, inflation risks are minimal, and in February the ECB may consider the situation in more detail and announce whether it is preparing to change rates.
In Ukraine, frosts, blackouts and devaluation sentiment prevail, and investors continue to formulate their savings plans with a view to the upcoming weakening of the hryvnia. The National Bank of Ukraine is closely monitoring the market and is ready to intervene in case of peak demand, while the managed exchange rate flexibility strategy will allow us to remain cautiously optimistic about the pace of further devaluation movements. Basic rules for investors: no sudden decisions, especially when there is panic on the interbank market. We analyze the general global trend together with the internal Ukrainian realities and only then decide whether to exit the currency or move from the dollar to other assets. It is important to regularly review your own savings programs in order to respond to trends in time and increase the level of return on investments in foreign currencies.
This material was prepared by analysts of the international multiservice FinTech product platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or to update or supplement.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
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