Ukrainian corn is in stable demand from a number of EU countries, which due to the abnormal heat will not receive their own corn crop, said the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Rada (VAR).
“Ukraine exported about 1.2 million tons in July, but the off-season is coming, and only 0.5 million tons are contracted for August,” analysts said at a weekly briefing on Tuesday.
According to their information, the European market is seeing stable small demand from Italy and Spain, where the heat wave of up to 45℃ persists. Also, high temperatures in France are not conducive to the formation of corn crop, the country may not get its own crop. Some importers are buying grain corn now, as there are concerns about the supply of European corn.
The conditional average price of corn is around 175-185 EUR/ton and no significant changes in the market are expected in the near term. The new corn crop is indicatively priced at 150-160 EUR/tonne with delivery in October, but no forward contracts have been signed, experts said.
“It can be predicted that from the second half of August the market will activate,” predicted in “Pusk”.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its July outlook released improved its forecast for Ukraine’s corn crop in the early 2023/24 marketing year (MY) to 25 million tons from 24.5 million tons in the June release, and its export forecast to 19.5 million tons from 19 million tons.
Meanwhile, the overall forecast for feed grain exports in this MY is lowered to 21.33 million tons from 21.53 million tons due to a reduction in the crop estimate to 31.47 million tons from 31.67 million tons.
For wheat, the forecast is kept the same: harvest – 17.5 million tons, exports – 10.5 million tons.
In the update, USDA estimated last MY 2022/23 wheat crop at 21.5 million tons vs. 33.01 million tons a year earlier and exports at 16.8 million tons vs. 18.84 million tons, respectively, with transitional residues reduced from 5.27 million tons to 1.63 million tons.
According to the USDA, the feed grain harvest fell to 33.93 million tons last year from 53.51 million tons in MY 2021/22, while exports fell to just 30.75 million tons from 32.93 million tons due to a reduction in transitional residues from 8.67 million tons to 2.16 million tons.
Including corn harvest in the past MY decreased to 27 million tons from 42.13 million tons a year earlier, while exports increased to 28 million tons from 26.98 million tons, including due to a reduction in transitional residues from 7.59 million tons to 1.39 million tons.
Corteva Agriscience, an international agricultural research company, increased its exports of Pioneer brand corn seed to the EU 16-fold in 2023 through established channels in Romania and Hungary, according to its press release.
According to it, the company was able to achieve a 15 percent increase in yields of Pioneer’s advanced seed hybrids last year through the introduction of precision farming, irrigation and other advanced approaches.
“For ten years we have been developing seed production in Ukraine, because for Corteva Agriscience our country is one of the major players in the global agricultural market, which has a significant impact on global food security,” – quoted the press service of the regional head of seed production Corteva Agriscience Andrey Andriushko.
He said that amid the war the company continues to invest in the production seed complex and support the communities of the region. For example, last year Corteva Agriscience signed a declaration with the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine on deepening and further developing cooperation for food security in Ukraine and the world, which resulted in increasing the production capacity of the seed complex in Stasi village, Poltava region, officially opened in June 2013 and investments of over $56 million. Its annual capacity has reached about 500 thousand seed units of corn and 250 thousand seed units.
According to the company, Corteva is one of the largest taxpayers in the region. The total number of employees, including seasonal workers, reaches nearly 400.
According to the press release, Corteva has invested about UAH 4.6 million in the development of Stasi village since 2013 (to improve infrastructure, medicine, education and social life of the community, in particular, it financed the reconstruction of a bomb shelter for 800 people.
Corteva Agriscience is a global agricultural company. It offers agricultural producers comprehensive solutions to maximize crop yields and profitability. It has more than 150 research facilities and more than 65 active substances in its portfolio.
Its representative office in Ukraine includes a central office in Kiev, a research center in Lyubartsy village (Kiev region) and a seed production complex opened in 2013 in Stasi village (Poltava region). Investments in the plant over five years amounted to more than $56 mln.
In April 2022, the company decided to leave the Russian market due to the full-scale war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine.
Turkey will impose an import duty on wheat, barley and corn starting from 1 May this year. The Russian Union of Grain Exporters does not rule out its cancellation in the new agricultural year, which begins July 1, 2023.
As the official gazette of Turkey T.C. Resmi Gazete reported, from May 1 the duty rate will be 130% instead of 0%. This measure is aimed to protect domestic producers on the eve of the new season.
Earlier, the Ukrainian Agricultural Policy Ministry said that this measure by Turkey will not affect sales of Ukrainian agricultural products as Ukrainian grain is mainly used for processing and subsequent sale to third countries, in which case the duty is not imposed on it.
At the same time, the ministry explained that Turkey has two customs regimes for imports. The first applies to products that are used for domestic consumption, and for such products the Turkish government previously announced a temporary zero rate of duty. After the expiration of the preferential regime returns the rate of 130%. Grain from Ukraine under the first regime, for which the duty is returned, goes to Turkey about 5% of all exports to this country, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy specified.
The second regime exists for products that go on sale to third countries before or after processing. Duty is not paid for this regime.
According to the State Customs Service, during the first quarter of this year, Turkey was the largest exporter of Ukrainian wheat, which was supplied for $ 168.8 million, or 17.7% of its total exports, including $ 70.9 million, or 20.5% in March.
Barley from Ukraine to Turkey during the first quarter of this year was imported at $ 52.7 million or 42.1% of total exports of this crop, including $ 17.3 million or 38.8% in March.
In a March report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) by 1 million tons from February data to 23.5 million tons from 22.5 million tons, while for wheat it kept its estimate at 13.5 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report on its website Thursday that its forecast for corn production for the current MY is maintained at 27 million tons and wheat at 21 million tons.
Also in the March forecast, the estimate of transitional corn balances in Ukraine at the end of 2022/2023 MY was reduced by 1 million tons to 2.39 million tons from 3.39 million tons, and by 0.04 million tons for wheat to 4.17 million tons from 4.21 million tons.
At the same time, the estimate of domestic consumption of corn in Ukraine in 2022/2023 MY remained at 5 million tons, and wheat – 4 million tons.
In general, the forecast of fodder grain exports in Ukraine in 2022/23 MY in the March forecast was increased by 1.1 million tons – to 26.03 million tons from 24.93 million tons in February, and the forecast of its production was kept at 34.16 million tons.
Since the beginning of 2022/2023 marketing year (July-June) and until March 3, Ukraine exported 32.54 million tons of cereals, including 18.8 million tons of corn (-1% compared to the same period a year earlier), 11.38 million tons of wheat (1.58 times less), 2.06 million tons of barley (2.73 times less), 16.1 thousand tons of rye (10 times less) and 100.5 tons of flour (+47.8%).
In its February report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine in 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) by 2 million tons, compared to January data, to 22.5 million tons from 20.5 million tons, and wheat exports by 0.5 million tons, to 13.5 million tons from 13 million tons.
According to a report on the U.S. Department of Agriculture website Thursday, the forecast for corn production in the current MY is maintained at 27 million tons and wheat at 21 million tons.
Also in the February forecast, the estimate of transitional corn balances in Ukraine at the end of 2022/2023 MY was reduced by 2 million tons to 3.39 million tons from 5.39 million tons, and by 0.5 million tons for wheat to 4.21 million tons from 4.71 million tons.
At the same time, the estimate of domestic consumption of corn in Ukraine in 2022/2023 MY remained at 5 million tons, and wheat – 4 million tons.
In general, the forecast of feed grain exports in Ukraine in 2022/23 MY in the February forecast was increased by 2 million tons – to 24.93 million tons from 22.93 million tons in January, and the forecast of its production was kept at 34.16 million tons.
As reported, Ukrainian agrarians by February 3, 2023 harvested 78.93 million tons of major crops from 18.46 million hectares, including 53.2 million tons of grain and leguminous crops. Wheat in 2022 harvested 20.2 million tons from 5 million hectares, and corn – 25.9 million tons from 3.9 million hectares.
Ukraine from the beginning of 2022/2023 MY to February 3, exported 27.46 million tons of crops, which is 29.8% less than the same period of the previous MY. External markets supplied 15.68 million tons of corn (-2.1% compared to the same period last year), 9.84 million tons of wheat (1.75 times less), 1.83 million tons of barley (3 times less), 12.8 thousand tons of rye (12.3 times less) and 85 tons of flour (+33%).
