The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat harvest in the recently started 2023/24 marketing year (MY) from 21 million tons to 22.5 million tons, and for corn from 27.5 million tons to 28 million tons due to larger than expected planted areas and the second-highest yields on record.
In its September forecast, the agency also raised its wheat export estimates from 11 million tons to 11.5 million tons, while corn exports remained unchanged at 19.5 million tons.
The USDA raised its domestic consumption forecast for wheat from 8.1 million tons to 8.8 million tons, while maintaining its forecast for corn at 5.5 million tons, and at the same time raising its carryover forecast to 4.43 million tons from 3.89 million tons.
In general, the global wheat harvest forecast for 2023/24 MY has been lowered by 56 mln tonnes to 787.3 mln tonnes, which is 3.25 mln tonnes less than last year, due to the decrease in production in Australia, Canada, Argentina and the EU, which will not be compensated by the increased production of Ukraine.
The forecast of world wheat trade was also downgraded by 2.1 million tons to 207.3 million tons compared to 219.9 million tons last year due to the decline in production in the above countries, which is only partially offset by the growth of activity in Russia and Kazakhstan.
The USDA noted that such annual decline in the world wheat supplies is the first since 2018/19 MY. The agency also expects the reduction of the global carry-over stocks by 7 mln tonnes to 258.6 mln tonnes, which will be the lowest level since 2015/16 MY.
Corteva Agriscience, an international agricultural research company, has increased the number of Pioneer® corn seed hybrids grown on the production fields of the company’s seed complex in Poltava region by 2.6 times to 24, according to a press release.
According to the report, the portfolio of Ukrainian corn seeds in 2024 will include hybrids of the Pioneer Optimum AQUAmax line.
In addition, in 2023, the seed team began growing corn hybrids popular in the European Union markets, as its long-term production strategy in Ukraine is to increase the share of exports to the EU.
The company reminded that in 2022 Corteva increased its exports to the EU 16 times.
In the current season, according to the company, 80% of seed crops were grown on irrigated fields, and 15% of the crops were grown using StripTill technology, which helps to preserve soil moisture and prevent erosion. Precision farming was introduced on more than 80% of the production area. A system of differential crop density was introduced.
“During the 10 years of operation of Corteva’s seed complex in Ukraine, everything has been done to provide farmers with high quality seeds of Ukrainian production. (…) We are convinced that seed production in Ukraine has a great future and Corteva strives to be a leader here,” Oleksiy Turchynov, Head of Production in Ukraine at Corteva Agriscience, was quoted by the press service as saying.
The company’s seed complex in Poltava region was officially opened in June 2013. More than $56 million was invested in its construction. The annual capacity of the plant is about 500 thousand sowing units of corn seeds and 250 thousand sowing units of sunflower seeds.
Corteva Agriculture is a global agricultural company. It offers comprehensive solutions to maximize yields and profitability. It has more than 150 research facilities and more than 65 active ingredients in its portfolio.
The company’s presence in Ukraine includes the headquarters in Kyiv, a research center in Liubartsi village (Kyiv region) and a seed production complex opened in 2013 in Stasi village (Poltava region).
In April 2022, the company decided to leave the Russian market due to the full-scale war against Ukraine unleashed by Russia.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its August forecast improved the forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine in the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) from 17.5 million tons to 21 million tons, corn – from 25 million tons to 27.5 million tons due to larger than expected planted areas and the second highest yield in history.
At the same time, the document notes, due to the discontinuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the export forecast was kept unchanged at 10.5 million tons and 19.5 million tons, respectively.
As a result, USDA for wheat raised the forecast for domestic consumption from 7.1 million tons to 8.1 million tons, and transitional residues at the end of MY – from 1.59 million tons to 4.13 million tons, while for corn, the entire crop growth forecast is balanced by an increase in expected transitional residues – from 1.89 million tons to 3.89 million tons.
Overall, the U.S. agency increased its forecast for this year’s feed grain harvest in Ukraine from 31.47 million tons to 33.97 million tons, estimating their exports at 21.37 million tons and raising the forecast for transitional residues from 2.27 million tons to 4.77 million tons.
In the update, USDA estimated last MY 2022/23 wheat crop, the same as a month ago, at 21.5 million tons vs. 33.01 million tons a year earlier, and exports at 16.8 million tons vs. 18.84 million tons, respectively, while reducing transitional residues from 5.27 million tons to 1.65 million tons.
The USDA sees the feed grain harvest falling to 33.93 million tons from 53.51 million tons in MY 2021/22, while exports fell to just 30.80 million tons from 32.93 million tons due to a reduction in transitional residues from 8.69 million tons to 2.15 million tons.
Including the corn crop, last MY’s harvest fell to 27 million tons from 42.13 million tons a year earlier, while exports rose to 28 million tons from 26.98 million tons, also due to a reduction in transitional residue from 7.59 million tons to 1.39 million tons.
USDA’s new forecast for the global wheat crop in MY 2023/24 is projected to reach 793.4 million tons, down 3.3 million tons from the previous forecast. Total wheat exports are forecast at 209.4 million tons, 2.23 million tons less than previously expected. Analysts projected final world wheat stocks at the end of MY at 265.6 million tons, 0.92 million tons less than the previous forecast.
For corn, the estimate for this year’s world harvest was lowered by almost 11 million tons to 1 billion 213.5 million tons, while exports were lowered by 2.07 million tons to 196.19 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for U.S. wheat production by 0.13 million tons to 47.2 million tons. Exports are expected at 19.05 million tons (-0.68 million tons).
Corn harvest is down 5.71 million tons to 398.82 million tons and exports are down 1.27 million tons to 58.65 million tons.
In the EU, USDA worsened its wheat crop estimate by 3 million tons to 135 million tons, keeping exports at 38.5 million tons.
For coarse grains, the EU crop forecast has been worsened by 6.85 million tons to 136.45 million tons and exports by 2.21 million tons to 10.59 million tons, with the estimated corn crop now down 3.7 million tons to 59.7 million tons and exports down 0.9 million tons to 4.1 million tons.
For Russia, the forecast for wheat exports at the same crop estimate of 85 million tons is increased by 0.5 million tons to 48 million tons, and coarse grains is kept at 8.91 million tons with the crop estimate lowered by 2.85 million tons to 39.4 million tons. Including corn, exports are still expected at the level of 4.2 million tons with a decrease in the harvest by 1.7 million tons – to 14.6 million tons.
Ukrainian corn is in stable demand from a number of EU countries, which due to the abnormal heat will not receive their own corn crop, said the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Rada (VAR).
“Ukraine exported about 1.2 million tons in July, but the off-season is coming, and only 0.5 million tons are contracted for August,” analysts said at a weekly briefing on Tuesday.
According to their information, the European market is seeing stable small demand from Italy and Spain, where the heat wave of up to 45℃ persists. Also, high temperatures in France are not conducive to the formation of corn crop, the country may not get its own crop. Some importers are buying grain corn now, as there are concerns about the supply of European corn.
The conditional average price of corn is around 175-185 EUR/ton and no significant changes in the market are expected in the near term. The new corn crop is indicatively priced at 150-160 EUR/tonne with delivery in October, but no forward contracts have been signed, experts said.
“It can be predicted that from the second half of August the market will activate,” predicted in “Pusk”.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its July outlook released improved its forecast for Ukraine’s corn crop in the early 2023/24 marketing year (MY) to 25 million tons from 24.5 million tons in the June release, and its export forecast to 19.5 million tons from 19 million tons.
Meanwhile, the overall forecast for feed grain exports in this MY is lowered to 21.33 million tons from 21.53 million tons due to a reduction in the crop estimate to 31.47 million tons from 31.67 million tons.
For wheat, the forecast is kept the same: harvest – 17.5 million tons, exports – 10.5 million tons.
In the update, USDA estimated last MY 2022/23 wheat crop at 21.5 million tons vs. 33.01 million tons a year earlier and exports at 16.8 million tons vs. 18.84 million tons, respectively, with transitional residues reduced from 5.27 million tons to 1.63 million tons.
According to the USDA, the feed grain harvest fell to 33.93 million tons last year from 53.51 million tons in MY 2021/22, while exports fell to just 30.75 million tons from 32.93 million tons due to a reduction in transitional residues from 8.67 million tons to 2.16 million tons.
Including corn harvest in the past MY decreased to 27 million tons from 42.13 million tons a year earlier, while exports increased to 28 million tons from 26.98 million tons, including due to a reduction in transitional residues from 7.59 million tons to 1.39 million tons.
Corteva Agriscience, an international agricultural research company, increased its exports of Pioneer brand corn seed to the EU 16-fold in 2023 through established channels in Romania and Hungary, according to its press release.
According to it, the company was able to achieve a 15 percent increase in yields of Pioneer’s advanced seed hybrids last year through the introduction of precision farming, irrigation and other advanced approaches.
“For ten years we have been developing seed production in Ukraine, because for Corteva Agriscience our country is one of the major players in the global agricultural market, which has a significant impact on global food security,” – quoted the press service of the regional head of seed production Corteva Agriscience Andrey Andriushko.
He said that amid the war the company continues to invest in the production seed complex and support the communities of the region. For example, last year Corteva Agriscience signed a declaration with the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine on deepening and further developing cooperation for food security in Ukraine and the world, which resulted in increasing the production capacity of the seed complex in Stasi village, Poltava region, officially opened in June 2013 and investments of over $56 million. Its annual capacity has reached about 500 thousand seed units of corn and 250 thousand seed units.
According to the company, Corteva is one of the largest taxpayers in the region. The total number of employees, including seasonal workers, reaches nearly 400.
According to the press release, Corteva has invested about UAH 4.6 million in the development of Stasi village since 2013 (to improve infrastructure, medicine, education and social life of the community, in particular, it financed the reconstruction of a bomb shelter for 800 people.
Corteva Agriscience is a global agricultural company. It offers agricultural producers comprehensive solutions to maximize crop yields and profitability. It has more than 150 research facilities and more than 65 active substances in its portfolio.
Its representative office in Ukraine includes a central office in Kiev, a research center in Lyubartsy village (Kiev region) and a seed production complex opened in 2013 in Stasi village (Poltava region). Investments in the plant over five years amounted to more than $56 mln.
In April 2022, the company decided to leave the Russian market due to the full-scale war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine.
