The YouTube channel of the Kiev analytical center “Club of Experts” has released a new video in which the founder of the project, PhD in Economics Maksim Urakin and the editor-in-chief of the “Ukraine in Arabic” portal Mohammad Farajallah forecast the results of the upcoming second round of presidential elections in Turkey and also analyzed possible developments after the end of the vote.
According to the experts, the incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has much more chances to win than his rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the united opposition. This prediction is due both to the behavior of the top politicians themselves before and after the first round of elections, as well as the position of third-place winner Sinan Ogan, who has already expressed his support for Erdoğan with 5 percent of the vote.
“Erdoğan conducted his election campaign well by not engaging in open polemics with the opposition on earthquake relief, democracy development and the economic situation. Instead, he focused voters’ attention on the themes of security and the “dignity of the nation” as well as Islamic identity. In addition, the increase in wages and the cancellation of utility bills on the eve of the election also played a role “- says Mohammad Farajallah.
According to the expert, these actions also helped Erdoğan win over nationalist forces, whose single candidate, Sinan Oğan, openly supported the incumbent president on the eve of the second round.
“The opposition, on the contrary, started to behave rather nervously after the first round, which was mainly reflected in Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s aggressive rhetoric with regard to the Syrian refugees who received Turkish passports under the social programs initiated by Erdogan,” he stressed.
In his turn, Maksim Urakin noted that Turkish voters were generally disappointed by Kylicdaroglu’s rhetoric as they expected concrete programs of economic and political actions from the opposition alliance after the elections.
“No specifics were heard from the opposition regarding social support for youth, the older generation, support for entrepreneurs and normalization of the situation in the economy,” says Maxim Urakin.
In his opinion, expectations of Kılıçdaroğlu’s victory already in the first round were somewhat “overheated” by a number of opinion polls, which predicted this candidate a serious advantage over Erdoğan (up to 5-7%), but were subsequently not confirmed at the elections themselves.
At the same time, according to experts, there is still a serious split among Turks with regard to the policy of the current president, and Erdoğan, if he wins the elections, will have to work hard to consolidate society within a single national consensus.
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ELECTIONS, ERDOĞAN, EXPERTS_CLUB, MOHAMMAD_FORPJALLAH, TURKEY
Former Turkish presidential candidate Sinan Ogan of the ATA (Ancestral Alliance) alliance on Monday expressed support ahead of the second round for current President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Hürriyet newspaper reported.
Ogan, who finished third in the first round of the presidential election and consequently dropped out of further competition, urged his supporters on Sunday to vote for Erdogan.
The second round of the presidential election will be held on May 28. Current President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), have entered it.
In the first round, Erdoğan received 49.52% of the vote, while Kılıçdaroğlu received 44.88%.
Ogan has about 5%, so experts noted that, given these results, in the second round it is very important to see who this former candidate will support.
Earlier, the Club of Experts analyzed the chances of candidates in the Turkish elections and gave a forecast of the situation. The video is available at the link:
Turkish citizens living abroad have begun the voting process in the second round of presidential elections. A total of 156 polling stations were opened in 73 countries around the world.
Note that only in Germany there are about one and a half million registered Turkish voters.
In the second round of elections, Turkey’s incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and a single opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu are represented. Turkish citizens at overseas polling stations can cast their votes until May 24.
In Rome, the Italian capital, Turkish voters lined up in front of the embassy despite inclement weather. Voting points will be available from May 20 to 22 at the embassy in Rome and at the consulate general in Milan.
Votes cast in favor of candidates in Madrid and Barcelona will be delivered to Turkey on regular Turkish Airlines flights under the supervision of diplomatic couriers, Turkish media reported.
In Turkey itself, the second round of elections is scheduled for Sunday, May 28. In the first round, Recep Tayyip Erdogan won four and a half percentage points more than his main rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Earlier, the Club of Experts analyzed the chances of the candidates in the Turkish elections and gave a forecast of the development of the situation. The video is available at the link:
A new video on YouTube channel of the analytical center “Club of Experts” examined the options for the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey. Ukrainian experts expressed their opinions and gave forecasts regarding the political situation in this country.
Mohammad Farajallah, editor-in-chief of the Internet publication “Ukraine in Arabic,” stressed that the upcoming elections in Turkey are of great importance for the region and arouse the interest of the international community.
“Turkey is an important player on the world stage, and its domestic policy directly affects the situation in the region and beyond. Therefore, the results of the elections will be monitored with great attention,” he noted.
In turn, the founder of the Club of Experts, Maksim Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics, shared his vision of possible scenarios after the elections. He stressed that there are two main political forces fighting for leadership in Turkey: the Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Kemal Kılıcdaroğlu, allied with five other opposition political forces.
“Two scenarios are possible. If the AKP wins, we can expect a continuation of the policies Erdoğan has pursued in recent years, with a focus on enhancing domestic stability and strengthening Turkey’s position in the international arena. On the other hand, if the CHP wins, we may see a more pro-Western orientation and increased cooperation with the European Union and the United States,” the expert said.
According to Urakin, a win for either candidate in the first round is unlikely, and the winner of the presidential race will most likely be determined by a second ballot.
Both experts also noted the significance for Ukraine of the election results in Turkey.
“Ukraine has close economic and political ties with Turkey, so the election results will have a direct impact on our relations and cooperation. Over the last year, as a result of the war, trade turnover between our countries has decreased, but I believe that if the current political course is maintained, we can expect further development of trade and economic relations between Ukraine and Turkey,” said Maxim Urakin.
In addition, the expert cited statistics on exports from Ukraine to Turkey in 2022, according to which it has decreased significantly.
“Last year, the volume of Ukrainian exports to Turkey was about 3 billion dollars as opposed to more than 4 billion in 2021, that is, we see a drop of 29%,” Urakin said.
According to Mohammad Farajallah, in the current geopolitical situation Turkey is an important partner of Ukraine in various spheres, which include both military support (UAV Bayraktar, light armored vehicles) and cooperation in economy, energy and other spheres.
The expert also suggested that if the opposition wins, Turkey is more likely to join sanctions against Russia.
“Naturally, the new government will be as close to the West as possible and can be included in a common unified Western policy against Russia. This, of course, will be to our advantage. But these are just preliminary words for now, perhaps they (the opposition – ed.) will come, look at the numbers and continue Erdogan’s current policy,” said Farajallah.
It should be noted that on the eve of the voting, Erdoğan lags behind his main rival Kılıçdaroğlu by more than 5%, according to a poll published by the Turkish sociological center KONDA on May 11.
Thus, Erdoğan gets the support of 43.7 percent of respondents, while Kılıçdaroğlu gets 49.3 percent.
The poll also reveals that neither candidate gets more than 50% of the votes, which means that if these data are confirmed in the elections, the winner will be chosen in the second round, which is scheduled for May 28.
The KONDA polling service conducted personal interviews with 3,480 people in 35 provincial centers.
At the same time, according to other surveys, in particular the Istanbul-based Center for Operational Social Research (Yöneylem), Erdoğan’s party was supported by 35.2% of voters in the parliamentary elections and Kılıcdaroğlu’s CHP by 30.7%.
For more on Turkey’s elections, see the video:
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CLUB_EXPERTS, ELECTIONS, ERDOĞAN, MOHAMMAD FARAJALLAH, TURKEY, UKRAINE, URAKIN
The opposition Likud party and its partners in Israel’s right-wing bloc may win a parliamentary majority in Israel’s parliamentary elections, The Jerusalem Post reports, citing polling results at the exit from polling stations.
Netanyahu’s bloc, which includes the Likud, the Religious Zionists, the single list of ultra-Orthodox parties Yahadut HaTorah and the ultra-religious Shas, can win 61 seats out of 120, according to exit polls. The Times of Israel predicts that the bloc Netanyahu will have 61-62 seats, Channel 12 predicts that the Netanyahu bloc will have 61 seats, Channel 13 – 62 seats, while the bloc of current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, according to the exit polls of these two channels, has 54-55 seats.
According to the Channel 12 exit poll, the Likud party, led by Netanyahu, could get 30 seats. According to the Channel 13 exit poll, Likud could win 31 seats. Lapid’s Yesh Atid party won 24 seats, according to exit polls from both channels.
However, the balance of power after the counting of all votes may still change, but the Israeli media is generally inclined to believe that, following the results of the current elections, Netanyahu may be able to regain power and become the head of government again. The final results will be known in the coming days, but by Wednesday morning, with the exception of some details, it will already be clear what the balance of power in the 25th Knesset will be, media say.
Polling stations in Israel closed at 22:00 (22:00 Kyiv time). The Israelis elected a new unicameral parliament, the Knesset.
The Ifop Public Opinion Institute predicts that the presidential coalition “Together!” comes out in the second round of parliamentary elections with a result of 210-250 mandates, which means first place and the loss of an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
The presidential team’s main competitor, the left-wing New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, comes in second with 150-180 seats in the lower house of parliament, as expected.
The media called the expected result of Marine Le Pen’s “National Rally” a big breakthrough. The French nationalists will have 80 to 100 seats, which will allow them to form their own political faction in the National Assembly.
The centre-right “Republicans” are predicted to receive 60 to 70 seats.
The French elected 577 deputies. For an absolute majority, it was necessary to win 289 seats in the National Assembly.
In the first round a week ago, Macron’s “Together” coalition finished almost on a par with the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), led by leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
