Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $39 billion 708.2 million as of October 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, the National Bank of Ukraine said on its website Friday.
“They decreased by 1.7% in September as a result of the NBU’s interventions to sell foreign currency to cover the difference between supply and demand in Ukraine’s foreign exchange market and the country’s debt payments in foreign currency, largely offset by receipts from international partners,” the NBU pointed out.
It specified that the government’s foreign currency accounts in the central bank received $3.329 billion, of which $1.592 billion – macro-financial assistance from the EU, $1.25 billion – a grant from the United States through the World Bank Trust Fund, $386.4 million – from the placement of foreign currency bonds of the internal state loan (OVGZ) and $100 million – from the World Bank under the guarantee of the United Kingdom.
At the same time, the Ukrainian government paid $465.3m for servicing and repayment of state debt in foreign currency, of which $388.9m – for servicing and repayment of foreign currency bonds, $51.1m – debt to the World Bank. In addition, Ukraine paid $882.1 million to the International Monetary Fund.
In addition, the National Bank in September sold $2.692 billion in the foreign exchange market, having bought back only $0.7 million, and the revaluation of financial instruments (as a result of changes in market value and exchange rates) increased the value of financial instruments by $12.9 million.
“The current volume of international reserves provides financing for 5.3 months of future imports,” the NBU pointed out. Earlier, the Experts Club research project and Maksim Urakin released an analytical video about the economy of Ukraine and the world – https://youtu.be/zCJ1cU3n0sY?si=hn2qK7REvGl9egn2.
You can subscribe to Experts Club’s youtube channel by following the link – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
The article summarizes and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law and for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Demographic indicators of Ukraine
Speaking about the demographic factor in the development of the Ukrainian economy, Maksym Urakin cited the data previously announced by the Director of the Ptukha Ella Libanova Institute for Demography and Social Studies. Ella Libanova, depopulation is an inevitable scenario for Ukraine. A labor shortage is absolutely inevitable.
According to the estimates she presented at the Regional Economic Forum, as of the beginning of this year, the population in the government-controlled areas was 31.6 million people, and now it has slightly increased. Libanova pointed out that the population forecast for the beginning of 2033 within the borders of 1991 Ukraine ranges from 26-35 million people.
According to her, the potential for demographic growth has been exhausted, and this can be offset by migration.
Economic recovery
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product grew by 19.5% in the second quarter of 2023 compared to the second quarter of 2022.
“According to the State Statistics Service’s preliminary estimate, compared to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted), GDP in the second quarter of this year grew by 0.8%,” said Maksym Urakin.
The key risk for our economy remains the longer duration and intensity of the war, as well as a decrease in the volume or loss of rhythm of international assistance, the resumption of a significant electricity shortage due to further destruction of the energy infrastructure and other risks.
Analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade
Maksym Urakin also drew attention to the factor of the growing negative foreign trade balance, which has been observed since the beginning of the war.
“The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-July 2023 tripled compared to the same period in 2022, to $13.8 billion from $4.315 billion. This means that the cost of purchasing the goods Ukraine needs is almost $14 billion higher than the income from exporting Ukrainian goods to other countries,” said Urakin, PhD in Economics.
Ukraine’s financial situation in 2023
However, according to the expert, no less important aspects of the economy are public debt, international reserves, and inflation.
“In July 2023, Ukraine’s total public debt increased by 3.1% to a new all-time high: by $4 billion in dollar terms, to $132.92 billion. In its inflation report at the end of July, the National Bank of Ukraine expects the public debt to grow from 78.4% of GDP to 84.6% of GDP this year, to 96.6% of GDP next year, and to 98.2% of GDP in 2025,” said Maksym Urakin.
According to the expert, the main source of funding for Ukraine’s budget is still related to foreign aid.
“Half of the budget is financed through taxes and fees, while the other half is financed through international grants and loans,” he emphasized.
“Ukraine’s international reserves declined in August and amounted to $40.3 billion as of September 1, 2023,” the analyst added.
As for inflation, it showed a slowdown.
“In August 2023, inflation in Ukraine decreased by 1.4% after a 0.6% decline in July and a 0.8% increase in June. In 2022, the annualized inflation rate was almost 27%,” Urakin said.
Thus, the economic situation in Ukraine, according to the founder of the Club of Experts, continues to be complex and multifaceted, requiring close monitoring and adaptation of strategies in response to changing conditions.
On September 1, three types of training were introduced in Ukrainian schools and universities, depending on the level of security in different regions. A total of 13,000 schools are operating in Ukraine in the new school year: 6.5 thousand of them operate in a standard format, and 3.8 thousand in a mixed format. The total number of pupils is about 4 million, with 415,000 students. At the same time, the level of danger to the educational process remains high even in the capital, as on September 21, the debris of missiles shot down over the capital damaged the educational building and dormitory of the National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit.
That is why, according to the founders of the Kyiv-based training and analytical center Experts club, it is important to help teachers and professors master key first aid skills.
On Friday, September 29, at 16:00, a training seminar on “First Aid for Children in Case of Injuries and Traumas” will be held in Kyiv. The event is organized by the Experts Club think tank in cooperation with medical partner Adonis. The general partner is the Pryirpinia Community Foundation, and information support is provided by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency and the Open4business portal.
The training will be conducted by Mariana Bolyuk, a representative of the Adonis Medical Center Group, an anesthesiologist and co-author of 12 scientific publications.
To participate in the event, you need to register by sending a request to fam@experts.news. The request should contain the following information: Name of the participant, phone number, name of the educational institution.
Upon confirmation of participation, participants will be sent information about the venue of the seminar. Please note that the number of seats is limited!
EXPERTS CLUB, FIRST AID, Mariana Bolyuk, Pryirpinia Community Foundation, TRAINING, АДОНИС
Spain’s economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter, according to revised data from the INE statistics agency.
Earlier, an increase of 0.4% was announced. At the same time, analysts did not expect a revision, Trading Economics reports.
Business investment increased by 1.9%, including 3.6% in the construction sector. Consumer spending increased by 0.9%, government spending by 1.6%.
Meanwhile, exports declined by 3.1%, while imports fell by 2%.
Data for the first quarter were also improved: GDP growth was 0.6%, not 0.5%.
The Spanish economy grew by 2.2% in April-June compared to the same period last year, not 1.8% as previously reported. In the first quarter, the growth was 4.2%.
The Bank of Spain predicts a further slowdown in the country’s economic growth in the third quarter to 0.3%. By the end of 2023, GDP is expected to increase by 2.3%.
The Experts Club research project and Maksym Urakin have recently released an analytical video on the economies of Ukraine and the world
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The volume of Ukraine’s gross external debt increased by $8.8bn during the second quarter of this year and amounted to $148.6bn at the end of the half-year, according to the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
“Relative to GDP, the debt increased from 90.5% to 92.7%,” the National Bank noted.
At the same time, the external debt of the public sector for the second quarter of 2023 increased by $8.4 billion to – $84.5 billion (52.7% of GDP), while the debt of the private sector – by $0.4 billion to $64.1 billion (40% of GDP).
As indicated by the National Bank, the growth in the public sector was due to net attraction of $8.8 billion in loans from international partners, including $3.6 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while the government debt on securities decreased by $0.12 billion.
According to the central bank, the volume of external liabilities of Ukrainian banks decreased by $0.08bn to $1.8bn (1.1% of GDP), mainly due to the reduction of debt on loans by a similar amount.
External debt of other sectors of the economy increased by $0.2bn to $41.3bn (25.8% of GDP). As explained by the regulator, this was due to the growth of external debt on guaranteed loans – by $0.14 billion and securities – by $0.05 billion.
Debt of other sectors of the economy, including intercompany debt, increased by $0.52 billion to $62.3 billion (38.9% of GDP) in the reporting quarter.
Direct intercompany debt of enterprises in direct investment relations increased by $0.28 billion to $21 billion (13.1% of GDP) in the quarter due to the increase in external debt on credits and loans of direct investors by $0.26 billion.
The NBU estimated the increase in private sector debt due to exchange rate changes at $0.4 bln.
The volume of overdue debt of the real sector on non-guaranteed loans (including from direct investors) increased by $0.13bn in April-June and amounted to $25.4bn (15.9% of GDP) at the end of the second quarter. According to the NBU, the share of Cyprus in it is 58.1%. In addition, the shares of the UK increased by 1 percentage point (p.p.), to 9.2%, and the Netherlands – by 3 p.p., to 5.8%.
According to the National Bank, Cyprus at the end of the second quarter remained the main creditor country in terms of the geographical structure of private sector debt on non-guaranteed loans (together with intercompany debt) – 49.2% of the total volume, its share since the beginning of the year increased by 0.4 p.p.
The shares of the Netherlands, Germany and Switzerland increased by 0.1 pp. to 7.3%, 3.0% and 2.6% respectively, while the share of the USA remained at 3.0% and the shares of the UK and Luxembourg decreased by 0.1 pp. – to 10.7%.
The main currency of Ukraine’s external borrowings at the end of Q2 2023 remains the US dollar – 50% of total external debt, but its share decreased by 3 p.p. over the quarter. At the same time, the share of borrowings in euros increased from 31.9% to 33.8%, as well as in SDRs to the IMF – from 9.9% to 11.4%, while the share of external debt in hryvnia decreased by 0.2 p.p. to 1.6%. – to 1.6%.
The volume of short-term external debt by residual maturity for the second quarter of 2023 increased by $1.2 billion and amounted to $40.8 billion as of June 30, 2023.
Meanwhile, general government liabilities that require repayment over the next 12 months increased by $0.9 billion to $3.8 billion due to higher future government loan repayments, including $0.2 billion to the IMF, while central bank repayments decreased by $0.18 billion to $1.3 billion due to lower IMF repayments.
The volume of short-term liabilities of the banking sector remained almost at the level of the previous quarter and amounted to $1.3 bln.
The total volume of real sector borrowings (together with intercompany debt), which are to be repaid over the next 12 months, increased by $0.5bn and amounted to $34.4bn as of June 30, 2023. The National Bank specified that the growth is due to an increase in the volume of future repayments on debt securities by $0.4bn.
Experts Club research project and Maxim Urakin recently released an analytical video about the economy of Ukraine and the world.
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The macro forecast of the Ministry of Economy, which formed the basis of the draft state budget-2024, assumes a sharp improvement in the security situation from the second half of next year and, as one of the consequences, an acceleration of economic growth to 5% in 2024 and 7-7.5% in 2025-2026.
“Further economic development of Ukraine depends on the duration and active phase of military operations… Thanks to the military successes of Ukrainian defenders and protectors, a significant reduction of security risks is expected from the second half of 2024, which will positively affect the indicators of economic and social development of Ukraine for 2025-2026,” the document says.
According to the forecast, dated mid-June this year, inflation (at the end of the year) will fall to 10.8% next year, to 7% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026.
Other estimates include unemployment falling from 18.8% this year to 10.8% in 2026.
In the formation of the revenue side is expected to increase revenues from the National Bank in 2025 to 103.9 billion UAH from 17.7 billion UAH in 2024 with a subsequent reduction to 15.4 billion UAH.
As reported, the government on Friday approved the draft state budget-2024 with revenues of UAH 1 trillion 746.3 billion, expenditures of UAH 3 trillion 108.2 billion and a marginal deficit of UAH 1 trillion 593.6 billion.
In relation to the current law on the state budget-2023, it is proposed to increase revenues by 25.6%, expenditures – by 7.6%, and reduce the deficit by 7.3%.
At the same time, this week the government submitted to the Rada a draft law No. 10038 with amendments to the state budget-2023 to increase its expenditures by 328.5 billion hryvnias due to the growth of internal loans by 207.6 billion hryvnias and external loans by 91.2 billion hryvnias.
Compared to it, revenues in the draft state budget-2024 are higher by 23.3%, or by 329.9 billion UAH, while expenditures are lower by 2.5%, or by 84 billion UAH, and the deficit – by 20.7%, or 416.8 billion UAH.
Experts Club Research Project and Maxim Urakin recently released an analytical video on the economy of Ukraine and the world
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel by following the link – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
