In the first two months of the new marketing year (2025/2026 MY), which began on July 1, Ukraine exported 1.456 million tons of wheat, which is 28% less than in the same period last season (2.026 million tons), according to APK-Inform.
Egypt became the key importer of Ukrainian wheat, almost doubling its purchases to 699,000 tons and becoming the largest buyer.
At the same time, most other traditional importers reduced their volumes:
Supplies also decreased to:
As of early September, Ukraine had harvested 30.4 million tons of grain crops on an area of 7.2 million hectares, which is about 63% of the total crop.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center presented a study of Ukraine’s main trading partners in the first half of 2025, where Egypt ranked first in terms of positive balance among all of Ukraine’s trading partners.
“Egypt is an extremely important and profitable trading partner for the country, along with a number of other Arab states. Partnerships with these countries provide the country with currency and somewhat correct the extremely negative trend of recent years with Ukraine’s constantly growing trade deficit,” emphasized Maxim Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
In terms of total trade volume, Ukraine cooperates most closely with China, Poland, and Germany. These countries form the basis of the state’s foreign economic relations, exerting a critical influence on imports and exports.
China remains the leader with a total trade volume of $8.99 billion. Poland ranks second with $6.04 billion, while Germany and Turkey are almost equal with $4.28 billion and $4.25 billion, respectively. The United States ranks fifth with $2.86 billion.
The top 10 also includes Italy ($2.38 billion), the Czech Republic ($1.64 billion), Bulgaria ($1.54 billion), Hungary ($1.53 billion), and Romania ($1.50 billion).
“The top ten partners form the basis of Ukraine’s foreign trade balance. China and the EU countries account for the largest volumes of trade, but it is important to take into account the significant negative balance in relations with these countries,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and economist.
He added that although the large volume of trade indicates Ukraine’s integration into global supply chains, dependence on imports from China and Europe creates strategic risks.
“Poland and Germany are key hubs for Ukrainian exports, but at the same time they are significant sources of imports. Therefore, it is critically important to balance trade flows, preserving positive sectors such as agriculture and metallurgy, and reducing dependence on critical imports,” Urakin noted.
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Ukraine maintains a significant positive trade balance with a number of key partners, which partially offsets the deficit in relations with China and EU countries.
The largest surplus in the first half of 2025 was recorded in trade with Egypt — $605.0 million. Spain ranks second with a balance of $515.3 million, followed by the Republic of Moldova — $448.4 million. Positive dynamics are also observed in relations with the Netherlands ($357.6 million), Algeria ($276.6 million), and Lebanon ($243.8 million).
Ukraine also has a high trade surplus with Iraq ($189.0 million), Libya ($133.6 million), Saudi Arabia ($128.4 million), and Kazakhstan ($113.6 million).
“The positive trade balance indicates that Ukraine is capable of competing effectively in international markets, especially in the agricultural sector and metallurgy. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that these markets are vulnerable to changes in the global economic situation, price fluctuations, and political factors,” emphasized Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and economist.
According to him, maintaining a positive balance in relations with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa is a key element of Ukraine’s foreign trade strategy.
“Egypt, Spain, and the countries of the Arab world are stable importers of Ukrainian agricultural products. This is a strategic direction that needs to be developed further, as it creates a safety cushion for the economy against the backdrop of significant import costs,” Urakyn emphasized.
Analysts note that consolidating positions in the African and Middle Eastern markets could become a long-term factor in strengthening Ukraine’s foreign economic balance.
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China remains the undisputed leader among Ukraine’s trading partners in terms of import volume. In the first six months of 2025, Ukraine imported Chinese goods worth US$8.15 billion. This is more than twice the figures for Poland ($3.58 billion) and Germany ($3.18 billion), which ranked second and third, respectively.
High import volumes were also recorded from Turkey ($2.53 billion) and the United States ($2.31 billion). Italy, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and France round out the top ten key suppliers with volumes ranging from $1.2 billion to $979 million.
“The formation of such an import structure indicates Ukraine’s excessive dependence on Chinese goods, especially in the electronics, technology, and industrial products segments. Such an imbalance poses risks to economic stability, as any political or logistical restrictions will immediately affect the domestic market,” emphasized Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and economist.
At the same time, experts point to the diversification of supplies from European Union countries. Poland, Germany, Italy, and France together account for more than $8.5 billion in imports, forming a significant segment of the domestic consumer and industrial market.
Economists predict that, provided the hryvnia exchange rate remains stable and import flows continue at current levels, the trade deficit with China will continue to grow. This will require an adjustment of state trade policy towards stimulating domestic production and searching for alternative markets.
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According to the results of the first half of 2025, Poland remains Ukraine’s main trading partner in terms of export volumes. According to research by Active Group and Experts Club, exports to Poland amounted to US$2.45 billion.
Turkey ranks second with USD 1.71 billion, and Italy ranks third with USD 1.17 billion. Other major partners include: Germany ($1.09 billion), Spain ($976 million), the Netherlands ($919 million), China ($847 million), Egypt ($776 million), Romania ($679 million), and Hungary ($652 million).
“The structure of Ukraine’s exports shows a clear focus on European Union countries. Poland, Italy, Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands together account for more than half of total exports. This indicates Ukraine’s strategic integration into the European economic space,” emphasized Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and economist.
He also noted that Turkey remains a critically important partner for Ukrainian agricultural and metallurgical exports, while China and Egypt are key markets for agricultural products, particularly grains.
“The presence of trading partners such as Egypt and China diversifies Ukrainian exports,” Urakin added.
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According to a survey conducted by Active Group in collaboration with Experts Club in August 2025, Ukraine has one of the most positive attitudes toward Japan among countries worldwide.
According to the study, 68.7% of Ukrainians have a positive opinion of Japan (33.0% — mostly positive, 35.7% — completely positive). Only 2.7% have a negative opinion, while 26.7% of respondents are neutral. Another 2.0% admitted that they know little about the country.
“Japan occupies a special place in the perception of Ukrainians. It is seen as an example of a country that has achieved great results through innovation, technological development, and the preservation of traditions. This level of trust can become the basis for further expansion of cooperation between our countries,” emphasized Active Group CEO Oleksandr Pozniy.
In turn, Maksim Urakin, co-founder of Experts Club, emphasized the economic dimension:
“In 2025, the total trade volume between Ukraine and Japan exceeded $521 million. At the same time, Ukrainian exports to Japan amounted to only $18 million, while imports exceeded $502 million.
This resulted in a significant negative balance of $484 million. Such an imbalance is a signal to look for new opportunities for Ukrainian goods to enter the Japanese market,” he stressed.
The study was part of regular monthly monitoring of Ukrainians’ attitudes toward key international partners.
The full video can be viewed at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgC9TPnMoMI&t
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