An exit poll conducted by Ipsos UK for Sky News, BBC, and ITV News predicts that the opposition Labor Party will win 410 seats in parliament, the BBC reports.
“If the prediction is correct, Sir Keir Starmer will become prime minister with 410 Labor MPs, slightly less than Tony Blair’s total in 1997,” the report says.
It is noted that the Conservatives may avoid the defeat predicted by some opinion polls, but their predicted result will be a crushing blow to the party after 14 years in power. According to exit polls, the Conservatives will win 131 seats in parliament, the lowest number in history. The Liberal Democrats are expected to take third place with 61 seats.
In addition, according to exit polls, the number of Scottish National Party MPs will decrease to 10, while Reform UK is projected to gain 13 MPs. The Green Party of England and Wales is expected to double its number of MPs to two, and Plaid Cymru will get four MPs. Others are projected to win 19 seats.
The exit poll is based on voter data from approximately 130 polling stations in England, Scotland and Wales. The poll does not cover Northern Ireland.
The UK election took place on Thursday, July 4. Most of the results will start coming in on the morning of Friday, July 5.
Earlier, Experts Club presented an analytical material on the most important elections in the world in 2024, a detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=eGb95W02MgF6KzXU
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
The British people will go to the polls on Thursday to determine the new composition of the Parliament. Polling stations will be open from 07:00 to 22:00 local time (09:00 to 00:00 CET). The British parliament is elected for five years and one party needs to win 326 seats out of 650 for a majority.
The first preliminary results are expected around 23:30 (01:30 CET), and updated data is expected to be published between 03:00 and 05:00 (05:00 and 07:00 CET). Western media note that it is usually after the publication of such updated information on the voting results that the leader of the losing party concedes defeat.
On Friday morning, the leader of the winning party is expected to travel to Buckingham Palace to inform King Charles III that he is ready to form a government.
The pre-election polls were extremely unfavorable for the Conservatives: according to several media outlets that compiled polls from various opinion companies, Labor could get about 40% of the vote, the Conservatives about 20%, and the Reform the UK party about 16%.
At the same time, experts from Survation said that they can say with 99% confidence that Labor will win with a huge margin. According to their latest poll, given the current rules for distributing votes in the election, the Labor Party could win 484 seats out of 650 (about 75% of the seats). In this scenario, the Conservative Party would receive only 64 seats (about 10%), which could be the worst result in their history.
Thus, the Reform the UK party, headed by Nigel Farage, may, under a favorable set of circumstances, overtake the Conservatives in the elections and become the second most important political party in the country. Farage’s party is mainly focused on immigration and the continuation of Brexit.
At the same time, changes are expected from Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Scottish National Party (SNP), which is experiencing an internal crisis, may lose some seats in the British Parliament to Labor. At the same time, the left-wing nationalist party Sinn Fein may win the majority of seats in the parliament for the first time in history from Northern Ireland. The party adheres to the policy of abstentionism, which means that if it wins, it will not de facto take its seats.
Pre-election polls in Wales do not predict any radical changes.
According to British voters, the most important problems in the kingdom are currently the economic situation (about 52% said so), the healthcare situation (50%), and immigration and asylum issues (40%). At the same time, the British media note that in their election promises, both Labor and the Conservatives do not pay enough attention to the country’s main problems.
Labor leader Keir Starmer promises to reform several sectors, including the National Health Service, and to raise taxes to invest in these areas. The leader of the Conservatives, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, promises to cut taxes.
At the same time, the positions of the two parties on Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine do not differ much: Sunak promised to stand by Ukraine “no matter what it takes,” while Starmer repeatedly said that his support for Kyiv is “ironclad.” The Labor Party’s manifesto states that it is ready to work with the Ukrainian government to diplomatically isolate Russia and increase industrial production. Labor is also ready to work to create a path to Ukraine’s membership in NATO.
At the same time, Farage said that Russia and Ukraine should try to organize a negotiation process by using mediators. He criticized NATO’s eastward expansion and said that Ukraine, in his opinion, should act as a buffer state between Russia and the West in the future.
Political problems for the Conservative Party began at the end of 2021, when Boris Johnson, who was then Prime Minister, resigned due to his participation in parties during the COVID-19 lockdown and the scandals that followed. Liz Truss took over as prime minister in September 2022 and was replaced by Sunak in October. The Conservative Party has been in power in the UK for about 14 years.
In late May, Sunak announced his intention to hold general elections on July 4, a decision that came as a surprise to many. The previous parliament convened in December 2019, so the prime minister had until December to decide.
Earlier, Experts Club presented an analytical material on the most important elections in the world in 2024, a more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=eGb95W02MgF6KzXU
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Experts Club analyzed the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club think tank, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the Center’s founder, Maksym Urakin, in the first quarter of 2024, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 4.1% to 5.3% compared to the same period last year.
“The main growth factors were an increase in agricultural exports and production activity in certain industries. However, the negative balance of foreign trade in goods in the first quarter amounted to almost $6 billion, which is 10% more than last year. This is due to an increase in energy imports after the strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector in March,” Urakin said.
According to the founder of Experts Club, Ukraine’s national debt has reached a new historical high of $151 billion, which is almost 6 trillion hryvnia in hryvnia equivalent. Inflation in Ukraine in the first quarter was 1% year-on-year, which is in line with the NBU’s target range.
Global economy
Maksim Urakin noted that analysts forecast that the global economy will grow by 2% in 2024, which is lower than expected at the end of last year. The main reasons for the slowdown are high interest rates in developed countries and global geopolitical uncertainty.
“The US economy grew by 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, which is lower than the growth rates observed in previous quarters, but still at an acceptable level for the development of the country’s economy. China’s economy grew by 5% due to a partial recovery from the crisis and government injections into the technology cluster,” the expert summarized.
He also reminded that the European Commission expects the eurozone economy to grow modestly in 2024 by only 0.8%, i.e. even less than 1%.
“High inflation and weak domestic demand remain the main problems of the EU countries. However, the British economy showed a modest growth of 0.6%, which indicates a weak recovery from the pandemic and Brexit,” Urakin said.
The economic situation in the world remains tense and depends on many factors, including geopolitical risks and changes in the global economic and political landscape. The Experts Club will continue to monitor the situation and provide up-to-date and balanced news.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, PhD in Economics Maksim Urakin
A charity wine evening will be held in Kyiv with the support of the Experts Club think tank and the UKRSADVINPROM association. The venue and time will be announced later.
The topic of the evening: Ukraine from West to East.
The program includes a presentation of 12 varieties of Ukrainian wine.
Phone number for reservations and payments: 0671822565
charity evening, club Bunker, EXPERTS CLUB, UKRSADVYNPROM, URAKIN, WINE
Active Group and Experts Club have conducted a joint study on the attitudes of Ukrainians towards the countries of East Asia and the Middle East. The study was presented at the Interfax-Ukraine news agency in June 2024. The research was presented by Maksym Urakin and Oleksandr Poznyi. The results of the study are as follows:
The results of the survey are as follows:
Completely positive – 3.6
Mostly positive – 8.6
Mostly negative – 25.1 %.
Completely negative – 30.9%.
Difficult to answer – 31.8%.
Positive – Negative -43.8
On December 16, 1992, diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Iraq were established
The joint research by Active Group and Experts Club on the attitudes of Ukrainians towards the countries of East Asia and the Middle East was conducted in April-May 2024. It covers such countries as Turkey, Iran, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia, India, China, Republic of Korea, DPRK, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Syria, and Iraq. Full information on the research is available on the website of the Club of Experts at
https://expertsclub.eu/cpilne-doslidzhennya-kompaniyi-active-group-ta-experts-club-shhodo-stavlennya-ukrayincziv-do-krayin-shidnoyi-aziyi-ta-blyzkogo-shodu/
Video – https://interfax.com.ua/news/video/993142.html
Active Group and Experts Club have conducted a joint study on the attitudes of Ukrainians towards the countries of East Asia and the Middle East. The study was presented at the Interfax-Ukraine news agency in June 2024. The research was presented by Maksym Urakin and Oleksandr Poznyi. The results of the study are as follows:
The results of the survey are as follows:
Completely positive – 3.3%.
Mostly positive – 9.8
Mostly negative – 26.8
Completely negative – 29.7 %.
Difficult to answer – 30.4%.
Positive – Negative – 43.3
On March 31, 1992, diplomatic relations between Ukraine and the Syrian Arab Republic were established.
The joint research by Active Group and Experts Club on the attitudes of Ukrainians towards the countries of East Asia and the Middle East was conducted in April-May 2024. It covers such countries as Turkey, Iran, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia, India, China, Republic of Korea, DPRK, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Syria, and Iraq. Full information on the research is available on the website of the Club of Experts at
https://expertsclub.eu/cpilne-doslidzhennya-kompaniyi-active-group-ta-experts-club-shhodo-stavlennya-ukrayincziv-do-krayin-shidnoyi-aziyi-ta-blyzkogo-shodu/
Video – https://interfax.com.ua/news/video/993142.html
