Ukraine’s construction market is showing mixed trends at the start of 2026: infrastructure and engineering construction remains the main driver, while the residential and part of the commercial segments continue to face pressure from rising costs, limited effective demand, and military risks. However, complete official statistics for January–March 2026 have not yet been published: according to the statistical agencies’ calendar, construction data for January–March is expected to be released in late April, so the current picture as of April 10 is based primarily on January–February results and related first-quarter indicators.
After a 12% increase in the volume of completed construction work in 2025—to UAH 248.1 billion—the market entered 2026 with a higher base, but growth rates began to level off as early as the first few months. In January, the volume of construction work grew by 3.3% year-over-year to UAH 11.254 billion, while building construction declined by 6.5%—including residential construction by 12% and non-residential construction by 4%—while civil engineering added 15.5%. Based on the results for January–February, the market already showed a 1.8% year-over-year decline to UAH 23.04 billion: the residential segment fell by 11.5%, the non-residential segment by 9.5%, while civil engineering structures, conversely, grew by 8.5%.
Rising construction costs remain a separate factor putting pressure on the market. According to the State Statistics Service, in February 2026, prices for construction and installation work rose by 7.2% compared to February of last year, and by 6.5% for the January-February period. In residential construction, price growth over two months was 6.1%, in non-residential construction—6.9%, and in civil engineering—6.4%. This means that even if certain growth areas remain stable, the profit margins of developers and contractors remain under pressure, especially in projects where sales prices or budget limits cannot keep pace with rising construction costs.
The residential segment, meanwhile, continues to present a mixed picture. On the one hand, the National Bank noted in its January inflation report that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of projects where construction began rose by 19% year-over-year, including a 77% increase in residential projects, and the number of buildings commissioned increased by 21%, including residential housing—by 40%. On the other hand, the NBU noted in its December Financial Stability Review that sales in unfinished projects remain sluggish, especially in the early stages of construction and in less secure regions, and housing prices in most regions are changing only slightly, indicating subdued demand.
Preferential mortgages remain a key support mechanism for the primary market. As of early April 2026, banks had issued 2,152 loans totaling 4.19 billion UAH under the “eOselya” program since the start of the year, and a total of 24,765 families have purchased housing since the program’s inception, for a total of 43.1 billion UAH. At the same time, in just one of the latest weekly reports, 101 out of 158 loans were for “first-sale” housing, including 48 loans for apartments in buildings under construction. This confirms that part of the demand for new housing in 2026 continues to be driven by state-subsidized mortgages.
According to Maksim Urakin, founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, in January–March 2026, the Ukrainian construction market entered a phase of more complex but more mature growth. “It is no longer possible to speak of a single construction boom. Ukraine is effectively operating in three parallel markets: the first is reconstruction and engineering infrastructure, where demand remains stable; the second is the locally active residential segment in relatively safe regions; the third consists of frozen or very slow-moving projects in high-risk zones. The main trend at the start of 2026 is not simply volume growth, but a redistribution of capital toward infrastructure, logistics, industrial, and social real estate,” Urakin believes.
In his assessment, the market will depend on three factors in the coming months: continued funding for reconstruction, the sustainability of the “eOselya” program, and companies’ ability to maintain construction costs. “If state and international reconstruction programs maintain their pace, and mortgage instruments continue to support primary demand, the construction sector will be able to remain in positive territory in 2026. But without an expansion of long-term financing and a reduction in military risks, the housing market will grow in isolated pockets rather than across the board,” noted the founder of Experts Club.
Overall, the start of 2026 shows that Ukraine’s construction market remains vibrant and adaptable, though its growth is becoming increasingly segmented. Infrastructure, logistics, and restoration projects are performing the most steadily, while mass residential construction still depends on security, affordable mortgages, and developers’ ability to finance projects amid rising costs.
CONSTRUCTION MARKET, EXPERTS CLUB, HOUSING, INFRASTRUCTURE, URAKIN
According to the results of a joint study by Active Group and Experts Club, Ukrainians view Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Lithuania most favorably, while China and Hungary receive significantly lower ratings, despite their importance in Ukraine’s foreign trade.
“The modern international economy is not just about foreign trade figures, but also about reputation, trust, political proximity, humanitarian presence, and a sense of partnership at the societal level. It is precisely within this framework that both Ukraine’s trade ties and the work of foreign embassies in Ukraine’s information and public spheres should be evaluated,” noted Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, at a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Thursday.
Urakin also cited Ukraine’s overall foreign trade figures for 2025. According to his data, total trade turnover exceeded $125 billion, of which nearly $85 billion was accounted for by imports and about $40 billion by exports, while the trade deficit in goods amounted to approximately $44.5 billion. He noted that this indicates the continued high openness of the Ukrainian economy even amid the war, but at the same time highlights its significant dependence on foreign supplies.
As noted during the presentation, China remains Ukraine’s largest trading partner in terms of trade turnover. At the same time, it is trade with China that creates the largest trade imbalance for Ukraine, as out of $20 billion in total trade, about $19 billion is accounted for by imports, while Ukrainian exports amount to only about $1.8 billion.
“In essence, nearly 39–40% of Ukraine’s entire annual trade deficit is attributable to China. This is a classic example of asymmetric trade: Ukraine sells resources and buys goods with high added value,” Urakin emphasized.
According to him, Ukraine has a different type of relationship with Poland. Poland remains a key neighbor, a logistics hub, an important political ally, and at the same time the largest market for Ukrainian exports. Total trade with Poland exceeds $13 billion, but here too, Ukraine’s trade balance remains negative—at nearly minus $3 billion. At the same time, as noted by participants at the press conference, Poland is not merely a sales market but a bridge connecting Ukrainian producers with the European Union market.
A similar situation is observed in trade with Germany, Turkey, and the United States. According to data presented at the press conference, trade turnover with Germany amounts to about $9 billion, with Turkey—nearly $9 billion, and with the United States—nearly $6 billion, with Ukraine having a negative balance in all three cases. Urakin emphasized that the U.S. market is particularly important, as the significance of the United States for Ukraine is determined not only by trade volumes but also by the role of the United States as a security, financial, technological, and political partner.
At the same time, as noted during the presentation, the most advantageous markets for Ukraine in terms of a positive trade balance are Egypt, Moldova, the Netherlands, Spain, Lebanon, Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Kazakhstan, and the United Arab Emirates.
“Ukraine achieves the best results where it has a strong position in the agricultural sector and where the Ukrainian export offering is well-suited to the respective market. Future improvements in the trade balance lie in the transition to products with higher added value in those markets where Ukraine already has a presence and is proving itself to be a stable partner,” he said.
The sociological part of the study, presented at the press conference, showed that Ukrainians demonstrate the highest levels of positive attitude toward Germany—77.4%, Lithuania—75%, France—74%, the United Kingdom – 74%, Sweden – 72.5%, Japan – 71.8%, Italy – 70%, and the Czech Republic – 67%. Ratings for Spain, Greece, Bulgaria, Poland, and Turkey also remain high. At the same time, 56% of respondents view Poland positively, compared to 14.7% negative ratings, and 55% view Turkey positively, compared to 5.6% negative ratings.
China, however, presents a different picture: 23% of respondents expressed a positive attitude toward it, while 42% expressed a negative one. Assessments of Hungary were even more critical: only 18.6% held a positive view, compared to 52% who held a negative one. 44.1% of respondents view the United States positively, while 24.7% view it negatively.
Oleksandr Pozniy, director of the research company Active Group, emphasized that this is the second study in the series, allowing for tracking the dynamics of public perceptions. According to him, this is not only about the emotional perception of other countries but also about a factor increasingly linked to foreign economic relations, security, and the image of a partner country within Ukrainian society.
“The ratings of some countries have deteriorated slightly compared to the previous survey. In the case of the United States, this could have been influenced by changes in American policy following the arrival of the new president and the corresponding media coverage,” Pozniy noted.
The participants in the press conference paid particular attention to cases where a country’s economic importance does not align with how it is perceived emotionally in Ukraine. Responding to questions from the audience, Pozniy cited China as an example—a country that is viewed quite negatively but remains Ukraine’s largest trading partner. Similarly, he noted, there are cases where a country, such as Iraq, has a positive trade balance with Ukraine, yet attitudes toward it remain reserved or negative.
Olga Bezrukova, Ph.D. in Sociology and head of the Kyiv branch of the Sociological Association of Ukraine, emphasized that public opinion during wartime is particularly sensitive to external factors, and therefore such measurements must be considered within a specific temporal context. “Attitudes toward a country should be viewed as attitudes toward the country as a whole, and they are shaped by Ukrainians’ perception of that country as a strategic partner in achieving peace in Ukraine. The second component is attitudes toward its representatives and citizens, which are based either on personal experience or on the experiences of friends, colleagues, and family members,” she explained.
According to Bezrukova, social media, the political context, cultural stereotypes, and everyday perceptions acquired through socialization play an important role in shaping these assessments. This, in particular, may explain the high proportion of neutral responses regarding certain countries about which Ukrainians have insufficient personal experience or information in the public sphere. She also drew attention to the influence of stereotypes on attitudes toward some countries in the Muslim world, even though, from an economic standpoint, some of them are important partners for Ukraine.
Maksym Urakin noted that foreign missions should communicate with Ukrainian society not in abstract diplomatic language, but in the language of tangible benefits—through jobs, investments, humanitarian projects, educational programs, and logistical opportunities. He also called on diplomatic missions to work more actively not only in Kyiv but also in the regions, and to link their countries’ images not only to political support for Ukraine but also to tangible participation in reconstruction, energy, industry, agricultural processing, healthcare, and education.
“If society sees a massive flow of imports coming into the country but does not see a corresponding flow of investment, technology, or localized production, a sense of imbalance arises. And this directly affects the emotional perception of the partner. That is why countries with a large trade surplus with Ukraine should pay particular attention to the reputational aspect of their presence in the Ukrainian market,” added Urakin
In summary, the participants of the press conference emphasized that the study’s findings could be useful for businesses, government institutions, and Ukraine’s international partners alike. In their view, public opinion can influence economic policy, consumer behavior, and even the perception of goods and services from various countries, and thus becomes a crucial element of today’s foreign economic reality. Oleksandr Pozniy noted that the world is not “black and white” for Ukrainians, and the large proportion of neutral assessments regarding a number of countries indicates caution and a desire for balanced judgment rather than indifference.
The survey was conducted in March 2026; sociologists analyzed Ukrainians’ attitudes toward 50 countries that are among Ukraine’s largest trading partners. The study was conducted using a self-administered questionnaire on an online panel; 800 respondents participated, and the stated margin of error does not exceed 3.5%.
You can view the full presentation of the study by clicking the link.
ACTIVE GROUP, ECONOMICS, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN, БЕЗРУКОВА
International support, the development of vocational education, and the rapid implementation of practice-oriented educational solutions are critically important for maintaining the competitiveness of Ukraine’s agricultural sector, which, despite the war, remains a key source of foreign exchange earnings and one of the drivers of the economy, stated participants at the press conference “International Partnership for the Development of Education in Ukraine’s Agricultural Sector.”
During the discussion, speakers emphasized that the agricultural sector is increasingly facing a shortage of personnel, the need for staff retraining, adaptation to new EU standards, and demand for modern digital knowledge—from post-harvest grain processing to artificial intelligence technologies in agricultural production.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center and deputy director of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, emphasized that under current conditions, the development of education in the agricultural sector is directly linked to issues of the country’s economic stability.
“Today, Ukraine’s economy depends to a significant extent on assistance from international partners, and this must be stated plainly. But Ukraine cannot build its future solely on external support, so we need industries that generate foreign exchange revenue, sustain employment, and form the tax base, and the agricultural sector remains precisely such a sector,” he emphasized at a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Tuesday.
According to Urakin, one example of such a practical partnership is the launch of the online course “Application of Artificial Intelligence Technologies in Agricultural Production,” implemented by Experts Club in collaboration with AgriAcademy at the initiative of the EBRD as part of food security support programs. He emphasized that solutions allowing Ukrainian farmers not just to talk about innovation but to translate it into concrete business tools are particularly important.
“The goal of this course is to shift the conversation about artificial intelligence from the level of abstractions to the level of concrete business solutions. Today, Ukraine needs a new system for training farmers—one that is more technologically advanced, systematic, and combines international best practices, business expertise, and applied tasks,” noted Urakin.
In turn, Oksana Yurchenko, project coordinator at the FAO Investment Center in Ukraine, emphasized that the labor shortage in the agricultural sector is a chronic problem that has not disappeared either after the pandemic or amid a full-scale war, and therefore, accessible remote learning formats are becoming one of the few realistic ways to quickly improve workers’ qualifications.
“The shortage of skilled workers in the agricultural sector has been, is, and will continue to be one of the key challenges. It is often difficult for farm workers to attend in-person training due to their schedules and the remote locations of their farms, so the industry needs accessible, practical, and flexible training that can be completed without taking time off from work,” she noted.
Yurchenko noted that the AgriAcademy platform was created in response to a request from major agribusinesses and international partners for systematic training for the sector amid the war. According to her, the platform already hosts over 40 courses, which are developed in collaboration with businesses, Ukrainian and international experts, and adapted to the sector’s current needs. Particular emphasis is placed not only on crop production but also on livestock farming, where requirements for biosecurity, animal health, welfare, and compliance with European standards have risen sharply.
“If we look at the number of diplomas and certificates issued by the AgriAcademy platform, we’re already talking about over 3,500 documents. At the same time, the number of registered students who are still taking courses or plan to complete their studies is approximately three times higher, which indicates a steady growth in interest in the platform,” Yurchenko reported.
She also noted that as of January 1, 2026, mandatory animal welfare requirements will apply to all agricultural enterprises that keep animals, and therefore the demand for specialized training will only increase. According to the expert, the courses on the platform are not yet legally mandatory, but they are effectively becoming an important practical tool for the correct interpretation and implementation of new regulations at enterprises.
Rodion Rybchynskyi, Director of the “Flour Millers of Ukraine” Association and a grain sector expert at the UN FAO, noted that the staffing problem affects not only agricultural production but the entire agri-food sector, including processing and the food industry, where automation of many processes cannot yet replace human labor.
“The labor shortage in the food industry is even more acute today than in agricultural production itself. Unmanned combines or tractors can already be used in the fields, but no one has figured out how to produce bread, grains, pasta, or other food products without people, so the issue of staff quality and knowledge is the number one challenge here,” he added.
Rybchynskyi emphasized that in the context of European integration, food industry enterprises must not only seek out employees but also quickly upgrade their qualifications in accordance with new regulations, technological requirements, and quality standards. That is why, he said, educational platforms such as AgriAcademy must develop in parallel with formal education.
The expert also noted that a course on post-harvest processing and grain storage is already available on the platform, and a course on processing grain crops is expected to be released soon. At the same time, as the expert emphasized, the main goal of such programs is to provide specialists with a solid foundation, without which innovation is impossible.
Maksym Hopka, head of the “AgroKebeti PRO: Grains and Oilseeds” project at the UCAB association, stated that retraining, short applied programs, and training with a practical component are currently among the most effective tools for addressing the labor shortage in the agricultural sector.
“Today, the agricultural sector in Ukraine is facing a serious labor shortage, so rapid, practice-oriented educational solutions are becoming crucial. Our approach is not just about training, but about developing a new quality of human capital for the agricultural sector by combining theory, practice, and direct interaction with businesses,” he noted.
According to Hopka, nearly 984 people registered for training under one of the programs, and 552 have already completed it. Some participants also completed the practical component, after which some graduates found employment or continued working in a related field within the industry. He noted that special attention in such programs was given to internally displaced persons, youth, people with disabilities, and war veterans.
Gopka also emphasized that it is important not only to create new educational products but also to ensure their close connection with higher education institutions. He reported that, as part of educational projects, more than seven memorandums have already been signed with leading agricultural universities, and certain programs are being implemented as supplements to master’s degree courses with the involvement of business representatives and foreign educational partners.
Serhiy Shylko, founder of TATFooD and a recruitment media agency, commenting on the situation in the labor market, noted that for employers in the current conditions, the main challenge is not simply finding a specialist, but the ability to retain an employee by offering them stability, clear working conditions, and opportunities for professional development.
“Today, success in the agri-food business is determined not by the search for the perfect specialist, but by the ability to become an integral part of a person’s life, providing them with stability and a sense of purpose. A production technologist must now serve as both a mentor to line staff and a process manager, so training platforms should help adapt specialists to new working conditions,” he said.
Shilko also emphasized the importance of the concept of lifelong learning and noted that the market already needs programs that employees can complete alongside their work, without a prolonged interruption in the production cycle. In his view, public and private initiatives in this area should not duplicate one another but rather address different segments of demand—from blue-collar professions to modern digital competencies, which are currently lacking even in formal retraining programs.
During the discussion, the speakers also focused on the state of academic education. They noted that the traditional system of workforce training in many cases is no longer keeping pace with the pace of change in the industry, particularly due to a weak material base, low teacher salaries, and a lack of sufficient resources for laboratories and modern equipment. At the same time, as the participants noted, it is precisely the alliance of business, universities, and professional associations that can become the model capable of producing tangible results.
Rodion Rybchynskyi cited examples of involving faculty from specialized Ukrainian universities in developing and teaching courses, as well as business collaboration with universities in creating modern laboratories, particularly at specialized higher education institutions. Participants in the press conference agreed that without such a partnership, a full-scale renewal of the workforce for the agricultural sector would be impossible.
A separate topic was the issue of potentially bringing foreign workers to Ukraine amid a labor shortage. Representatives of the processing sector noted that there is already some demand for such workers, but in practice, it often runs into obstacles due to immigration laws and organizational challenges. At the same time, according to Oksana Yurchenko’s assessment, while such a scenario is partially feasible for processing and certain production sectors, it is unlikely to become widespread in the livestock segment.
Overall, the participants of the press conference concluded that, given the war, demographic pressures, and tougher competition in foreign markets, the agricultural sector can no longer rely solely on traditional approaches to workforce training. In their view, international partnerships, digital educational platforms, short practical programs, business involvement in training, and the modernization of academic education should form the basis of a new workforce model for Ukrainian agribusiness.
AGRO, EXPERTS, EXPERTS CLUB, FAO, Flour Mills of Ukraine, GRAIN, MAXIM GOPKA, MAXIM URAKIN, RECRUITING, RODION RYBCHINSKY; AGROKEBETI PRO, SERGEY SHILKO, TATFOOD, ОКСАНА ЮРЧЕНКО
Aluminum prices rose on Monday amid reports of Iranian attacks on facilities belonging to the largest Middle Eastern metal producers.
Three-month aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were trading at $3,432.5 per ton as of 11:10 a.m. local time, up 4.1% from the previous session’s close. Earlier in the session, the price rose to $3,492 per ton, its highest level since March 19, approaching a four-year high of $3,546.5 per ton.
Aluminum contracts, the most actively traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rose 3.43% to 24,725 yuan ($3,578.82) per ton at Monday’s market close.
Last Sunday, Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), which operates one of the world’s largest aluminum plants, said it was assessing the damage from Saturday’s Iranian strikes on its facility. In addition, leading Middle Eastern aluminum producer Emirates Global Aluminium reported “significant damage” to production facilities as a result of Iranian missile and drone attacks on the Khalifa economic zone in Abu Dhabi.
Concerns about disruptions to aluminum supplies to the global market arose with the start of the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. Producers from the Persian Gulf countries, which account for about 9% of global supply, have lost the ability to ship metal through the Strait of Hormuz. Under these conditions, Alba has already begun cutting back production, and damage to its facility could worsen the situation, experts note.
“Attacks on facilities increase the likelihood of prolonged supply disruptions,” states a report by ING Economics analysts. “Supply issues may persist even if geopolitical tensions ease, heightening the risk of rising prices.”
For a more detailed overview of global aluminum production—1970–2024—watch the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel.
On Monday, platinum is posting the sharpest decline among major precious metals amid a strengthening U.S. dollar and deteriorating expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. As of 9:25 a.m., platinum futures fell 11.7% to $1,740 per ounce.
The platinum market is declining in tandem with gold and silver, reacting to the strengthening dollar and the growing likelihood that the Fed may keep rates high longer than expected. When the U.S. dollar is strong, global investors’ interest in precious metals typically wanes.
Platinum faces additional pressure because it is viewed not only as a safe-haven asset but also as a commodity sensitive to the outlook for global industry.
Platinum is of key importance to industry, primarily to the automotive sector, the chemical industry, oil refining, hydrogen energy, and catalyst production. For the financial market, it is important as an exchange-traded metal with an investment function; however, its value depends more heavily on the state of the real economy than that of gold.
Previously, the Experts Club analytical center released a video analysis on the production of platinum group metals by the world’s leading producers for the period 1971–2024: – https://youtube.com/shorts/vj4mBkJVxrg?si=pPTU6_l0t9-iCBb4
Silver prices on Monday are showing a sharp decline amid a strengthening U.S. dollar and a general deterioration in sentiment in the precious metals market. As of 9:25 a.m., silver futures on Comex fell 10.5% to $62.345 per ounce.
The rise in the DXY dollar index is weighing on prices, as are expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may maintain a tight monetary policy for longer than the market had previously anticipated. An additional factor is demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Like other precious metals, silver becomes less attractive to investors when the dollar is strong, especially as yields on dollar-denominated instruments rise.
Silver is important not only as an investment and monetary metal but also as an industrial raw material. It is widely used in solar energy, electronics, electrical engineering, medicine, and battery production, so its market depends on both financial and industrial factors.
Reference: The Experts Club analytical center previously released a video analysis of the twenty largest silver-producing countries and their competition for leadership from 1971 to 2024 – https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HvKK-YET8vs
