The Experts Club think tank has analyzed European countries’ responses to the fuel crisis. European countries’ responses to the 2026 fuel crisis have so far been mixed. Some governments are directly intervening in the fuel market by restricting exports, introducing price caps, and releasing reserves. Others are limiting themselves to price monitoring and coordination at the EU and G7 levels, trying not to provoke a shortage with even tougher measures.
Serbia has chosen the most aggressive form of intervention. The authorities have temporarily suspended exports of oil, gasoline, and diesel until March 19, explaining that this is to protect the domestic market from shortages and price spikes. Reuters notes that Serbia had already been controlling fuel prices since February 2022, meaning that the current decision is a continuation of a more interventionist regulatory model.
Hungary has opted for a mixed scenario. On the one hand, Budapest has introduced a price cap on gasoline and diesel for cars registered in Hungary. On the other hand, the government decided to use state reserves, and the Minister of Economy, according to Hungarian media reports, also announced a reduction in excise duties and a ban on the export of some petroleum products. This is a typical example of a combined anti-crisis scheme, where the authorities simultaneously try to keep retail prices down and maintain the physical availability of fuel on the market.
Croatia has chosen a softer approach—limiting maximum retail prices for a two-week period. The government has set a maximum price of EUR1.50 per liter for Eurosuper, EUR1.55 for diesel, and EUR0.89 for “blue diesel,” and has also limited prices for liquefied gas. Zagreb has stated outright that without this measure, diesel would cost EUR 1.72 per liter and gasoline EUR 1.55. This means that Croatia is trying not to isolate the market, but to soften the final effect on households and businesses.
Slovakia and, to some extent, the Czech Republic have focused not on retail regulation but on supporting physical supplies. After the failure of supplies via Druzhba, Slovakia approved the use of 250,000 tons of oil from strategic reserves for refining, while Hungary and Slovakia began negotiations on the use of reserves back in February. The Czech Republic, in turn, announced its readiness to send small volumes of oil to Slovakia via the eastern Druzhba pipeline.
The UK has not yet introduced price caps or export bans. Treasury Secretary Rachel Reeves said the government was monitoring the situation closely and warned retailers that it would not allow “excessive profits” amid the oil shock. This approach is closer to a supervisory model: the authorities are signaling to the market that they are ready to tighten control over the behavior of sellers, but are not moving to direct price administration.
At the pan-European level, caution prevails for now. The G7 and the EU are discussing possible measures, including the use of strategic reserves, tax changes, and carbon price adjustments, but no decision on coordinated release of reserves has been made yet. France, as chair of the G7, says that “all options are on the table,” but acknowledges that there is no immediate shortage in Europe.
The European Commission, for its part, points to the structural vulnerability of Europe, which imports more than 90% of its oil and about 80% of its gas.
The main conclusion for Europe now is that countries are responding differently depending on their own vulnerability. Balkan and Central European countries, which are dependent on imports and specific supply routes, tend to act faster and more aggressively — through bans, price caps, and reserves. The large economies of Western Europe are still favoring coordination, market pressure, and preparing tools in case the situation worsens. But if the oil shock drags on, the current targeted measures could turn into a broader wave of European intervention in the fuel market.
The escalation of the war around Iran has already gone beyond a regional conflict and has become a factor in global inflation. On March 9, Brent rose above $119 per barrel intraday, its highest level since 2022, and IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices could add about 0.4 percentage points to global inflation. The scale of the risk is also explained by logistics: in 2024, about 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which is approximately 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption.
For Ukraine, the fastest channel for transmitting such a shock is the fuel market. After losing a significant part of its own refining capacity, the country relies on imports: in 2024, Ukraine imported about 1.2 million tons of gasoline, and in January-September 2025, imports of petroleum products reached 5.67 million tons. Even before the current price surge, the market remained sensitive to logistics and external conditions: The NBU noted an acceleration in the growth of prices for gasoline, diesel, and liquefied gas due to supply disruptions, and Reuters reported that in January 2026, gasoline imports grew by 70% year-on-year due to a shortage of domestic production. This makes gasoline, diesel, and autogas the most likely first group of goods to react to a protracted oil shock.
“If the conflict around Iran drags on, Ukraine will feel it almost immediately through rising fuel costs, and then through higher logistics, import, and food prices. For our economy, this is not only an external shock, but also additional inflationary pressure on the domestic market,” says Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center and candidate of economic sciences.
The second vulnerable group is imported products with long logistics and a high share of transport costs. In 2025, Ukraine increased its imports of agri-food products by 13% to $9.12 billion, with the EU’s share exceeding 53.9%. The largest items in the procurement structure were fruits, berries, and nuts ($1 billion), fish and seafood ($999 million), alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages ($870 million), cocoa products ($640 million), coffee, tea, and spices ($471 million), and vegetables ($467 million). It is these categories — from bananas and citrus fruits to coffee, chocolate, and seafood — that are most sensitive to increases in freight, fuel, refrigerated logistics, and dollar-denominated commodity prices.
“Consumers will feel the price increases most noticeably where there is a large share of imports and transportation costs. First and foremost, this concerns fuel, coffee, chocolate, fish, seafood, and fruit, and a little later, goods whose prices include more expensive fertilizers, gas, and packaging,” Urakin noted.
The third risk area is fertilizers and then Ukrainian-produced food. There has already been an increase in prices not only for oil and gas, but also for sugar, fertilizers, and soybeans following the escalation around Iran. At the same time, European gas prices jumped by 35-40% in early March, and the EU convened a coordination group on gas supplies. This is doubly sensitive for Ukraine: the NBU previously estimated the need for gas imports in 2026 at $1.1 billion after $2.9 billion in 2025, and fertilizer imports in 2025 rose to 3.285 million tons.
According to GIZ estimates, Ukraine’s dependence on nitrogen fertilizer imports has already exceeded 60%. This means that if oil and gas prices remain high for a long time, in a few months the pressure may shift to the cost of grain, greenhouse vegetables, milk, meat, and other food products.
Products linked to petrochemicals and metals deserve special mention. Oil is a basic raw material for a wide range of chemical products, and Reuters has already noted that aluminum prices have risen to a four-year high amid the current conflict. This increases the risk of price increases for plastic packaging, household chemicals, paints, certain types of cosmetics, tires, PVC materials, and some construction products. The same applies to bitumen, a direct petroleum product, whose imports to Ukraine, according to industry estimates, will remain significant in 2026.
The currency factor could be an additional amplifier. Against the backdrop of the war, investors are turning to the dollar as a safe haven asset. This is important for Ukraine because oil, gas, coffee, cocoa, fertilizers, and a significant portion of other imports are denominated in dollars, and the EU remains the country’s largest trading partner, accounting for more than 50% of trade in goods. Even without a physical deficit, this increases the risk of more expensive imports in hryvnia.
However, not all goods will react equally quickly. Basic products, where Ukraine remains a major producer — primarily wheat, corn, and sunflower oil — are less dependent on immediate imports, and the wheat and corn harvest in 2025 turned out to be better than early expectations.
Therefore, in the short term, fuel, imported fruits and seafood, coffee and chocolate, fertilizers, chemicals, and some construction materials are likely to see the sharpest price increases. But if the energy shock drags on, the rise in logistics costs will almost inevitably begin to seep into the prices of Ukrainian-made goods.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/vijna-v-irani-pidnime-cziny-na-palyvo-ta-import-analiz-tovariv/
Aluminum prices showed increased volatility on Monday: earlier in the session, quotes updated their maximum since April 2022, but then began to decline.
The price of aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 1.1% to $3,387 per ton by 16:07 GMT. During the session, quotes rose 2.8% to $3,544 for the first time since April 2022.
Over the past week, aluminum has risen in price by almost 10%, recording its highest growth in three years, amid fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East, which accounts for about 9% of global production of this metal. Two aluminum plants, in Qatar and Bahrain, were forced to suspend deliveries due to armed conflict in the region.
“A prolonged war will hurt aluminum supplies,” said Gao Yin, an analyst at Shuohe Asset Management Co. According to her, consumers are building up aluminum stocks in case of such an event.
For a more detailed overview of global aluminum production from 1970 to 2024, watch the video on the YouTube channel Experts Club.
According to the results of a study conducted by Active Group and the Experts Club analytical center in February and presented at the Interfax-Ukraine press center, only 13.1% of respondents reported that they use the state drug reimbursement program, 70.6% do not use it, 16.3% had heard of it but did not use it.
“Low use of the program is often associated not with a lack of need, but with barriers to awareness and access,” said Experts Club founder Maxim Urakin.
“If people ‘have heard of it but have not used it,’ then the patient’s path to compensation remains difficult,” added Alexander Pozniy.
The survey was conducted on the SunFlowerSociology online panel on a representative sample on February 11-12, 2026.
The survey involved 1,000 respondents from a representative sample in all regions of Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories.
ACTIVE GROUP, ALEXANDER POZNIY, EXPERTS CLUB, MAXIM URAKIN, MEDICINES, Reimbursement
According to the results of a survey conducted by the research company Active Group and the analytical center Experts Club in early February, 52.3% of respondents said that the prices of medicines they buy regularly have increased significantly, 43.9% said they have increased slightly, 3.6% said they have not changed, and 0.2% said they have decreased.
“The widespread perception of rising prices is a factor that directly affects adherence to treatment,” said Experts Club founder Maksim Urakin.
“Rising prices are prompting some patients to delay purchases and self-medicate, which increases the risk of complications,” said Active Group CEO and co-founder Alexander Pozniy.
The survey was conducted on the SunFlowerSociology online panel using a representative sample on February 11-12, 2026. The survey involved 1,000 respondents from a representative sample in all regions of Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories.
Aluminum prices hit a nearly four-year high on Wednesday amid fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East.
The price of aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 3.1% to $3,379.8 per ton by 3:00 p.m. During the session, the price exceeded $3,400 for the first time since April 2022.
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba, one of the largest aluminium producers in the Middle East) announced force majeure on its contracts on Wednesday because it is unable to ship aluminium products.
“This is due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which prevents us from shipping. Therefore, we are continuing production, but the metal is here in Alba,” he told Reuters.
According to AZ China, the Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum production.
For a more detailed overview of global aluminum production from 1970 to 2024, see the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel.
