The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for global corn exports in the 2025-2026 marketing year by 1.63 million tons to 205.10 million tons, despite the expected reduction in Ukrainian supplies.
According to the December report, with global exports growing, the estimate of global corn carryover stocks, on the contrary, has been reduced by 2.19 million tons to 279.15 million tons, reflecting more active use of grain and the maintenance of a fairly tight supply and demand balance.
For Ukraine, the USDA has lowered its corn harvest forecast from 32 million tons to 29 million tons due to a reduction in acreage and yields, as well as difficult weather conditions during harvesting. The export forecast has been lowered from 24.5 million tons to 23 million tons, domestic consumption from 7 million tons to 6 million tons, and carryover stocks from 1.55 million tons to 0.85 million tons. This means that additional growth in global corn exports will be provided by other major market players.
In its December report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its forecast for global wheat exports in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) by 1.5 million tons to 218.71 million tons.
At the same time, the USDA raised its estimate of global wheat carryover stocks at the end of the season by 3.44 million tons to 274.87 million tons, indicating some easing of tensions in the global market.
With regard to Ukraine, the agency maintained its estimate of the wheat harvest at 23 million tons, but reduced its export forecast from 15 million tons to 14.5 million tons due to an increase in domestic consumption from 7.1 million tons to 7.6 million tons. This means that most of Ukraine’s wheat will be directed to the domestic market, while other supplier countries will provide the growth in global exports.
In January-November of this year, Ukraine’s metallurgical enterprises increased their revenues from ferrous metal exports by 3.72% compared to the same period last year, to $2 billion 979.392 million.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS) on Friday, ferrous metals accounted for 8.08% of total export revenues during this period, compared to 7.48% in January-October 2024.
In November, export revenues amounted to $274.028 million, compared to $312.781 million in the previous month.
At the same time, Ukraine increased imports of similar products by 12.6% to $1 billion 542.449 million in January-November 2025. In November, products worth $107.877 million were imported.
In addition, in January-November 2025, Ukraine reduced exports of metal products by 1.96% to $853.934 million. In November, exports amounted to $79.789 million.
Imports of metal products during this period increased by 21.4% to $1 billion 166.113 million. In November, $119.551 million worth of these products were imported.
As reported, in 2024, Ukrainian metal companies increased their revenues from ferrous metal exports by 16.9% compared to the previous year, to $3 billion 96.343 million. At the same time, Ukraine increased imports of similar products by 13.1% over the past year, to $1 billion 478.814 million.
In 2023, Ukraine reduced its revenues from ferrous metal exports by 41.6% compared to 2022, to $2 billion 647.72 million. Ferrous metals accounted for 7.3% of total revenues from goods exports during this period, while in 2022, the share was 10.3%. At the same time, Ukraine increased imports of similar products by 37% in 2023, to $1 billion 307.05 million.
In addition, in 2023, Ukraine reduced exports of metal products by 16.6% compared to 2022, to $877.92 million. At the same time, imports of metal products increased by 40.3%, to $902.57 million.
The dairy industry, which is one of the key sectors of Ukraine’s agricultural sector, has retained its production base and is gradually recovering despite the full-scale war, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture Taras Vysotsky said at the XVII All-Ukrainian Conference “Dairy Business-2025” in Kyiv on Thursday.
The deputy minister noted that in January-October 2025, Ukraine produced almost 5.9 million tons of milk.
“An important trend is the growing role of agricultural enterprises: they already account for 45% of production, and their production volumes have increased by 7.6%, despite the overall reduction in livestock numbers. Quality is also improving: more than 55% of milk sent for processing meets the European ‘extra’ standard,” he wrote on Facebook.
Vysotsky emphasized that the industry is also actively working in foreign markets. In the first 10 months of 2025, exports of dairy products grew by almost 9%. Sixty-four Ukrainian companies have permission to export dairy products to the EU, 40 of which are milk processing plants.
“Despite the challenges, we are maintaining the stability of current indicators and forming a resource for further growth – this is our realistic and strategic focus. The next step is investment, modernization, and a clear move towards integration with the European market,” the deputy minister concluded.
Barley exports from Ukraine between July and November of the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) amounted to 1.2 million tons, which is 37% less than shipments during the same period of the 2024/25 MY and represents 46% of the projected export potential of grain, according to the information and analytical agency “APK-Inform”.
Experts noted that in November this year, barley exports from Ukraine amounted to 78.2 thousand tons, which is 50% less than in the same period a year earlier.
The main importers of Ukrainian grain in July-November were China, which purchased 42% of all shipments, Turkey with a share of 20%, and Libya (12%). At the same time, Turkey increased its imports of Ukrainian barley by 6.4 times in 2025/26 MY, purchasing 233 thousand tons compared to 36 thousand tons last season. Meanwhile, China and Libya reduced their barley purchases by 31% and 37%, respectively.
“The export potential of Ukrainian barley in 2025/26 MY is estimated at 2.5 million tons, which is 11% higher than last MY. The gross grain harvest is expected to reach 5.3 million tons,” according to APK-Inform’s forecast.
Total foreign trade in dairy products in November amounted to $54.7 million, up 3.3% from October ($53 million), according to the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association (UDIA).
The industry association noted that export volumes in November continued to grow for the second month in a row and amounted to $23.84 million, adding 12.7% compared to October ($21.16 million) and 15.4% compared to September ($20.7 million).
At the same time, the value structure of exports in November 2025 was as follows: condensed milk and cream – 37%, cheese – 25%, butter – 21%. The value structure of exports in November 2025 compared to November 2024 changed slightly: the share of milk and condensed cream increased (from 30% to 37%) against the backdrop of a decrease in the share of cheese (from 32% to 25%).
Imports in November amounted to $30.9 million, down 2.9% from October ($31.8 million) and 2.2% from September ($31.6 million). In November 2025 compared to November 2024, the value structure of imports did not change significantly, in particular, the share of all types of cheese remained at about 84%.
The export-import balance in November was negative (-$7.0 million), as it was in October (-$10.6 million) and September (-$10.9 million), the association noted.
The ratio of exports to imports was 0.77 in November, 0.67 in October, and 0.65 in September.
Imports of dairy products in November this year exceeded exports by 1.3 times, the SMU summarized.
