As of September 22, Ukraine had exported nearly 1.7 million tons of wheat, and there is enough product on the market to cover contracts, which is holding back price growth, but the situation may change in October.
This forecast was announced by the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“The indicative price for third-class wheat remains at $212–214 CPT-port. This is due to sufficient product reserves among traders and high supply on the global market, especially from Russia,” its analysts noted.
According to their information, coverage of wheat contracts for November-December will significantly decrease for many market players.
“Contracts for October are already being concluded at a price of $218-220 CPT-port with a potential increase to $223. The main reason is a reduction in stocks and growing uncertainty about the future harvest,” the experts explained.
Climate risks in countries that are major wheat producers will be the leading factor supporting prices.
“In Ukraine, the central and southern regions are suffering from drought, and no significant rainfall is forecast in the near future. Russia is also experiencing a critical moisture deficit, and the pace of sowing is the slowest in the last five years. A similar situation is observed in France, Romania, and Bulgaria, where moisture shortages are threatening winter wheat yields. Given this, there is a threat of a reduction in winter crop areas. Importers, anticipating potential problems with the 2026 harvest, may purchase grain more actively. Therefore, wheat prices may rise significantly in January-March,” Pusk states.
According to the results of the first half of 2025, Poland remains Ukraine’s main trading partner in terms of export volumes. According to research by Active Group and Experts Club, exports to Poland amounted to US$2.45 billion.
Turkey ranks second with USD 1.71 billion, and Italy ranks third with USD 1.17 billion. Other major partners include: Germany ($1.09 billion), Spain ($976 million), the Netherlands ($919 million), China ($847 million), Egypt ($776 million), Romania ($679 million), and Hungary ($652 million).
“The structure of Ukraine’s exports shows a clear focus on European Union countries. Poland, Italy, Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands together account for more than half of total exports. This indicates Ukraine’s strategic integration into the European economic space,” emphasized Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and economist.
He also noted that Turkey remains a critically important partner for Ukrainian agricultural and metallurgical exports, while China and Egypt are key markets for agricultural products, particularly grains.
“The presence of trading partners such as Egypt and China diversifies Ukrainian exports,” Urakin added.
CHINA, ECONOMY, EGYPT, EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORTS, GERMANY, HUNGARY, ITALY, POLAND, ROMANIA, TRADE, TURKEY, UKRAINE, МАКСИМ УРАКИН
In the first 16 days of September, 1 million 48.9 thousand tons of grain were exported by rail, which is 19.2% less than in August. Compared to the same period last year, the reduction amounted to 8.8%, according to the Rail.insider portal.
According to Valery Tkachev, deputy director of the transport technology and commercial operations department at Ukrzaliznytsia, 981,000 tons of grain were loaded onto the network in September, which is 12.5% less than a year earlier.
The total volume of all cargo transported during this period reached 1.25 million tons, which is 10.2% less than last year and 11.4% less than in August.
Most of the grain – 979,500 tons (93.4%) – was delivered to seaports. Only 69,400 tons (6.6%) were sent to western border crossings.
Since the beginning of September, almost 568,000 tons of grain have already been exported by rail.
In addition, since the beginning of the 2025/2026 marketing year (July 1), Ukraine has exported 5.028 million tons of grain and legumes. For comparison, during the same period last year (as of September 13, 2024), this figure was 8.59 million tons, meaning that the pace of exports has slowed significantly.
In January-August of this year, Ukraine reduced exports of semi-finished carbon steel products in physical terms by 39.1% compared to the same period last year, to 795,769 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), in monetary terms, exports of carbon steel semi-finished products fell by 40.8% to $384.215 million.
The main exports were mainly to Bulgaria (39.36% of supplies in monetary terms), Turkey (16.42%), and Poland (14.38%).
During this period, Ukraine imported 46,604 thousand tons of semi-finished products worth $35.242 million, mainly from Oman (38.41%), Germany (26.24%), and the Czech Republic (18.61%), while in the first eight months of 2024, it imported 5 tons of semi-finished products worth $5 thousand.
As reported, in 2024, Ukraine increased its exports of semi-finished carbon steel products in physical terms by 56.7% compared to 2023, to 1 million 886,090 tons, while revenue in monetary terms increased by 52.4% to $927.554 million. The main exports were to Bulgaria (32.06% of supplies in monetary terms), Egypt (18.50%), and Turkey (11.14%).
In 2024, Ukraine imported 306 tons of semi-finished products worth $278 thousand from the Czech Republic (88.13%), Romania (7.19%), and Poland (2.88%), while in 2023, it imported 96 tons worth $172 thousand.
In January-August of this year, Ukraine increased its exports of processed cast iron in physical terms by 64.9% compared to the same period last year, to 1 million 235,648 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), during the specified period, pig iron exports in monetary terms increased by 70.3% to $487.923 million.
At the same time, exports were mainly to the United States (81.66% of shipments in monetary terms), Italy (9.24%), and Turkey (3.51%).
In the first eight months of this year, the country imported 38,000 tons worth $76,000 from Germany (51.32%) and Brazil (48.68%), while in January-August 2024, 15 tons of pig iron worth $37,000 were imported.
As reported, on March 12 of this year, in accordance with President Donald Trump’s decision, the US began imposing a 25% tariff on imports of Ukrainian steel products, except for cast iron.
In 2024, Ukraine reduced its exports of processed cast iron in physical terms by 3.4% compared to 2023, to 1 million 290.622 thousand tons, and in monetary terms by 6.1%, to $500.341 million. Exports were mainly to the United States (72.64% of shipments in monetary terms), Turkey (8.03%), and Italy (7.30%).
For the whole of 2024, the country imported 38 tons of pig iron worth $90 thousand from Germany, while for the same period in 2023, it imported 154 tons of pig iron worth $156 thousand.
In January-August of this year, Ukraine reduced exports of titanium-containing ores and concentrates in physical terms by 94.2% compared to the same period last year, to 277 tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), in monetary terms, exports of titanium-bearing ores and concentrate decreased by 93.7% to $496,000.
The main exports were to Uzbekistan (35.61% of shipments in monetary terms), Turkey (35.01%), and Egypt (29.38%).
In addition, Ukraine imported 24 tons of titanium-containing ore worth $39,000 from China (94.87%, deliveries took place in January) and Uzbekistan (5.13%, deliveries took place in May) in the first eight months of 2025.
In the first eight months of 2025, Ukraine exported 2,466 tons of niobium, tantalum, vanadium, and zirconium ores and concentrates worth $3.954 million to Spain (48.90%), Germany (24.53%), and Italy (17.19%). At the same time, the country imported 321 tons of such ores worth $841 thousand from Spain (68.05%), China (15.8%), and the Czech Republic (13.06%).
As reported, in 2024, Ukraine reduced its exports of titanium-containing ores in physical terms by 37.5% compared to the previous year, to 7,284 thousand tons. In monetary terms, exports of titanium-containing ores and concentrates decreased by 40% to $11.654 million. The main exports were to Turkey (62.82% of supplies in monetary terms), Egypt (7.38%), and Poland (6.93%).
Last year, Ukraine imported 314 tons of titanium-containing ore worth $492 thousand from China (87.78%), Vietnam (6.11%), and Senegal (also 6.11%).
At the same time, experts pointed out the inconsistency of statistics on exports of titanium-containing ores. However, in response to a request from Interfax-Ukraine, the State Customs Service (SFS) of Ukraine stated that complete data on the export of titanium raw materials is not provided due to restrictions on the volume of export and import operations with military and dual-use goods, which are reflected in aggregate form under “Other goods.”
They explained that, in particular, deliveries of titanium-containing ores from companies differ from the SCS data.
“We would like to inform you that these deliveries are included in the statistical exports from Ukraine, but are not reflected in the foreign trade statistics published by the State Customs Service (…) under commodity item UKTZED 2614 ”Titanium ores and concentrates” in view of the following (…) In accordance with the regulations (…), when protecting data for confidentiality purposes, any information considered confidential is reported in full at the next, higher level of product data aggregation,” the State Customs Service explained in its response to the agency.
It was clarified that information on customs clearance and movement across the customs border of Ukraine of goods subject to export control is included in the list of information containing official information in the SSU, in accordance with the relevant order.
In Ukraine, titanium-containing ores are currently mined mainly by PJSC “United Mining and Chemical Company” (UMCC), which manages the Vilnohirsk Mining and Metallurgical Plant (VGMK, Dnipropetrovsk region) and the Irshansk Mining and Processing Plant (IGZK, Zhytomyr region), as well as LLC “Mezhirichensky GZK” and LLC “Valky-Ilmenite” (both LLCs are located in Irshansk, Zhytomyr region). In addition, the production and commercial firm Velta (Dnipro) built a mining and processing plant at the Birzulivskyi deposit with a capacity of 240,000 tons of ilmenite concentrate per year.
