Global grain production in 2026 could reach one of the highest levels on record, but international trade is declining due to logistical restrictions, particularly shipping problems in the Black Sea. Ensuring global food security depends not only on the volume of production but also on the ability to transport products to consumers on time and at an affordable price, SEEDS reports, citing an analysis by international expert Kateryna Zvierieva.
According to the latest estimates by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global grain production in 2026 is forecast at 2.979 billion tonnes. This is the second-highest figure on record. At the same time, the volume of international grain trade is projected to decrease by 3.5% to 505.8 million tonnes.
Among the main factors behind the decline in trade, FAO identifies shipping difficulties in the Black Sea and insufficient capacity of alternative transport corridors. As a result, even with high production volumes, certain regions may face supply disruptions and rising costs of imported food.
As Kateryna Zvierieva, an international expert in strategic communications in the agri-food sector, sustainable development and food systems, notes in an article for the Italian publication Agricultura.it, risks to food security are not necessarily associated with a physical shortage of grain. The availability of transport routes, delivery speed and logistics costs play a significant role.
The situation in Ukraine is particularly illustrative in this context, as grain exports remain dependent on security conditions, the operation of port infrastructure and the capacity of alternative routes.
According to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, as of October 16, the country had exported 5.929 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops since the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year. This is 24.9% less than during the corresponding period of the previous season.
At the same time, export trends for individual crops differ significantly. In particular, wheat shipments decreased by 40.5%, while corn exports increased by approximately 80%. This difference indicates that logistical and market factors have varying effects on individual segments of the grain market.
The structure of transport routes has also changed. According to the European Commission, in September 2026, about 90% of Ukrainian exports of grain, oilseeds and related products were transported through the Solidarity Lanes between Ukraine and the EU. Meanwhile, approximately 10% of shipments passed through Black Sea ports.
Rail, road and river transport make it possible to maintain exports even under restrictions on maritime logistics. However, their capacity remains an important factor determining the volumes, delivery times and costs of agricultural product shipments.
Logistical difficulties also affect global food prices. According to FAO, the Food Price Index rose by 1.5% in September compared with August and by 5.8% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the cereal price sub-index increased by 5.1% over the month and by 17.2% compared with September 2025.
In particular, global wheat prices rose by 6.3% during the month. Among the reasons cited are restrictions on transport connections in the Black Sea region and dry weather conditions in certain areas of North America. Corn became 5.6% more expensive amid expectations regarding yields in the United States and a reduction in export supplies from Brazil.
According to Zvierieva, delays in transporting products create risks not only for international trade but also for the financial stability of agricultural enterprises. Longer delivery times and higher transport costs affect farmers’ working capital, their ability to finance current operations and investments in subsequent production cycles.
At the same time, high global harvests and declining trade do not automatically mean the emergence of a global food crisis. However, the current situation demonstrates the dependence of food markets on transport infrastructure and the stability of international supply chains.
Thus, ensuring global food security increasingly depends on countries’ ability to maintain stable logistics routes, diversify transport corridors and reduce food delivery costs.
Kateryna Zvierieva is an international expert in strategic communications in the agri-food sector, sustainable development and food systems. She has collaborated with FAO and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). She is the founder of Sapienza.media.
Agricultural exports, FAO, FOOD SECURITY, GLOBAL MARKETS, GRAINS, KATERYNA ZVIERIEVA, LOGISTICS, UKRAINE
Global grain trade in the 2026/27 agricultural year (July–June) will total 505.8 million metric tons, down 3.5% from last year, according to a forecast by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
According to the organization’s monthly grain report, the new estimate is 3.5 million metric tons lower than the previous forecast made in September. “This reflects a downward revision of wheat and corn export forecasts, driven primarily by shipping difficulties through the Black Sea and insufficient capacity on alternative transport routes,” the report states. “The upward revision to the barley trade forecast only partially offsets the lost corn and wheat trade volumes.”
Forecasts for corn exports from the EU were lowered due to reduced supply from Ukraine resulting from logistical difficulties. At the same time, an increase in export supply from Australia has allowed for an upward revision of the forecast for barley trade, a significant portion of which will be shipped to China.
The improved forecast for wheat exports from Kazakhstan has not fully offset the decline in shipments from Russia and Ukraine.
According to the forecast, international rice trade will decline by 2.2% in calendar year 2026; however, it may increase by 1.7% in 2027, reaching 61.2 million metric tons. “In 2027, a recovery in import demand is projected in most regions; however, the availability of sufficient domestic stocks in East Asian countries suggests that the downward trend in their purchasing volumes may continue for the third consecutive year,” the document states.
According to the FAO forecast, the wheat harvest in 2026 will total 813.9 million metric tons, which is 3.3% less than last year, while the total grain output will be 2 billion 979 million metric tons (2.1% less).
Around $680 billion in financing annually is needed to transform global agrifood systems by 2030, but the effectiveness of international programs will depend not only on the amount of funding, but also on farmers’ and agribusinesses’ access to finance, markets and economic incentives.
According to SEEDS, financing issues were discussed in Rome during the FAO Global Conference “Actions in One Health in Agrifood Systems,” which took place on September 21–23 and was dedicated to implementing the One Health approach in agrifood systems.
According to FAO estimates, the annual financing requirement for the transformation of agrifood systems in low- and middle-income countries amounts to around $680 billion. Of this amount, approximately $425–426 billion should go directly to investments, with another approximately $255 billion allocated to social protection systems.
International expert on sustainable agriculture and agrifood systems and founder of Sapienza.media Kateryna Zvierieva, who participated in the conference, stressed that the volume of international financing alone does not guarantee results if resources do not reach direct producers.
“We can develop effective environmental and veterinary solutions, but they will not become widespread practice if the farmer does not have access to financing, sales markets and economic incentives for their implementation,” she said in a comment to SEEDS.
Rwanda became one example of effective fundraising. About $25 million in financing from the Pandemic Fund was accompanied by the mobilization of approximately another $160 million in additional resources and related investments. The program is aimed at strengthening epidemiological surveillance, early warning systems and coordination between human and animal health services. FAO, WHO and UNICEF are involved in its implementation.
During the conference, programs in Zimbabwe and Afghanistan were also discussed, where the One Health approach is used to combine veterinary safety, healthcare, food security and support for agricultural production. Participants stressed that animal diseases, climate risks and water-related problems often extend beyond individual states and require regional investment programs.
The reduction of international assistance remains a separate problem. Representatives of the European Commission drew attention to the need to involve the World Bank, IFC, the International Fund for Agricultural Development and private capital more broadly in financing, since grant resources are insufficient for a large-scale transformation of the agricultural sector.
For Ukraine, these approaches are particularly important due to the need to simultaneously restore agricultural production, infrastructure, the veterinary system and water resources, as well as adapt the sector to EU standards.
According to Zvierieva, international programs should be accessible not only to large institutions, but also directly to agricultural enterprises, cooperatives and small producers. Farmers, in her opinion, should be involved in the development of such programs already at the planning stage, since it is they who can assess the real cost of introducing new technologies and the economic risks for farms.
FAO also emphasizes that without the involvement of the private sector, financial institutions and direct producers, it will be impossible to overcome the global financing gap in agrifood systems.
Source: SEEDS — “$680 billion for the transformation of agrifood systems”
Global wheat production in 2026 could decline by 3.8% compared to 2025—to 810.7 million metric tons, according to a forecast by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
Based on August data, the FAO raised its forecast for the global wheat harvest by 0.5%, but despite this revision, production may still be 3.8% lower than last year’s figure (798.5 million metric tons), according to the report.
The increase in the August forecast is primarily due to upward revisions in estimates for Canada, Morocco, Russia, and Ukraine. These increases more than offset the downward revisions for the EU and the United Kingdom, where a lack of rainfall and high temperatures led to lower yields.
The FAO’s August forecast for the world’s total grain harvest has been lowered by 3.4 million metric tons—to 2.98 billion metric tons—compared to the July level. “Taking into account the latest adjustments, production in 2026 could be 2% lower than last year’s level, which would mark the most significant annual decline since 2018,” the report states.
The revision of the overall forecast is largely due to a 0.6% downward revision of the corn harvest estimate to 1.309 billion metric tons. This is primarily due to worsening harvest forecasts in the EU, where hot and dry weather conditions in key production regions—particularly in France and Poland—have led to a deterioration in crop conditions and reduced expected yields to below the five-year average, according to FAO experts.
In addition, based on the latest official estimates, production forecasts for India and Paraguay have been revised downward. This decline more than offset the upward revisions for Argentina and Brazil, where the 2026 harvest could turn out to be significantly higher than average levels.
Disruptions in grain supplies from the Black Sea region and hot weather, which worsened harvest forecasts in a number of countries, led to a 2.2% increase in global grain prices in August compared to July. Prices reached their highest level since May 2024, according to the monthly review by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
According to the report, international prices for all major grain crops rose in August. “This was driven by strong demand resulting from deteriorating harvest prospects in key producing regions due to adverse weather conditions, as well as ongoing uncertainty regarding exports from the Black Sea region,” the report states.
Global wheat prices rose by 2.6% in August compared to July, with a year-over-year increase of 15%. Among the reasons, FAO experts also cite “protracted disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region, downward revisions to production forecasts in some European regions experiencing hot and dry weather, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, which has made export shipments more competitive.”
Corn prices rose by 2.5% compared to July, driven by growing concerns about harvest prospects in some regions of the U.S. Corn Belt and worsening production forecasts in the EU. At the same time, demand from ethanol producers and the animal feed industry remains high.
“Fears regarding food supply following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provided additional support to corn prices,” the review notes.
Global prices for sorghum and barley rose by 3.9% and 2.6%, respectively, in August compared with July, “which generally reflects a more stable situation in the feed grain markets,” the review states.
Rice prices rose by 0.5% in August. “The rise in prices for Indian rice varieties was driven by factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, purchases by Asian and African countries, and an expected reduction in supplies,” the report states.
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has allocated $176.7 million to support Ukraine’s agricultural sector, with priorities including demining and training for agribusiness development, according to Shakhnoza Muminova, head of the FAO office in Ukraine.
“From 2022 to the present, FAO, together with its partners, has allocated $176.7 million to support approximately 300,000 families in rural areas and 17,000 farmers,” she told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency on the sidelines of the Agro Ukraine Summit on Wednesday.
According to Muminova, one of the most underfunded yet most critical areas remains the humanitarian demining of agricultural land.
“First and foremost, mine action requires significant funding because it is expensive. Ukraine currently has the world’s largest area of contaminated agricultural land. If this sector is underfunded, demining could drag on for several decades. And we want to return the land to production as soon as possible,” she noted.
The head of the FAO office reported that currently 133,000 square kilometers of Ukraine’s territory require surveying and are at risk of being contaminated with explosive ordnance.
According to her, the FAO’s work in Ukraine focuses on several key areas: supporting families and farmers in rural areas, as well as providing technical support to the government. Particular attention is being paid to surveying potentially contaminated areas and providing vouchers to resume agricultural activities on cleared plots.
Muminova also highlighted the lack of funding for training and agribusiness development programs.
“The Ukrainian agricultural sector is currently experiencing a significant exodus of people due to the hostilities. Many people are leaving, and the agricultural sector is suffering greatly as a result. Therefore, training remains one of the key areas in need of support,” she explained.
According to the FAO representative, the organization plans to provide support to an additional 240,000 households and farmers between 2026 and 2028. To implement this plan, the FAO needs to raise $193 million, but the initiative remains underfunded at this time.
“What strikes me most is that people do not want to leave their homeland, even if it is dangerous,” Muminova added.
